Avian haemosporidian persistence and co-infection in great tits at the individual level.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have tracked the distribution and persistence of avian haemosporidian communities across space and time at the population level, but few studies have investigated these aspects of infection at the individual level over time. Important aspects of parasite infection at the individual level can be missed if only trends at the population level are studied. This study aimed to determine how persistent Haemosporida are in great tit individuals recaptured over several years, whether parasitaemia differed by parasite lineage (mitochondrial cytochrome b haplotype) and how co-infection (i.e. concurrent infection with multiple genera of parasites) affects parasitaemia and body mass. METHODS: Parasite prevalence was determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), quantitative PCR were used to assess parasitaemia and sequencing was employed to determine the identity of the lineages using the MalAvi database. RESULTS: Haemosporidian prevalence was high over sampled years with 98% of 55 recaptured individuals showing infection in at least one year of capture. Eighty-two percent of all positive individuals suffered co-infection, with an overall haemosporidian lineage diversity of seventeen. Plasmodium and Haemoproteus parasites were found to be highly persistent, with lineages from these genera consistently found in individuals across years and with no differences in individual parasitaemia being recorded at subsequent captures. Conversely, Leucocytozoon parasites showed higher turnover with regard to lineage changes or transitions in infection status (infected vs non-infected) across years. Parasitaemia was found to be lineage specific and there was no relationship between Plasmodium parasitaemia or host body condition and the presence of Leucocytozoon parasites. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that different genera of haemosporidian parasites interact differently with their host and other co-infecting parasites, influencing parasite persistence most likely through inter-parasite competition or host-parasite immune interactions. Even-though co-infections do not seem to result in increased virulence (higher parasitaemia or poorer host body condition), further investigation into infection potential of these parasites, both individually and as co-infections, is necessary.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Fronts from integrodifference equations and persistence effects on the Neolithic transition

We extend a previous model of the Neolithic transition in Europe [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)] by taking two effects into account: (i) we do not use the diffusion approximation (which corresponds to second-order Taylor expansions), and (ii) we take proper care of the fact that parents do not migrate away from their children (we refer to this as a time-order effect, in the sense that it implies that children grow up with their parents, before they become adults and can survive and migrate). We also derive a time-ordered, second-order equation, which we call the sequential reaction-diffusion equation, and use it to show that effect (ii) is the most important one, and that both of them should in general be taken into account to derive accurate results. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the model predictions agree with the observed front speed, and the corrections relative to previous models are important (up to 70%)

Reactive rise in blood pressure upon cuff inflation: cuff inflation at the arm causes a greater rise in pressure than at the wrist in hypertensive patients.

OBJECTIVE: Cuff inflation at the arm is known to cause an instantaneous rise in blood pressure, which might be due to the discomfort of the procedure and might interfere with the precision of the blood pressure measurement. In this study, we compared the reactive rise in blood pressure induced by cuff inflation when the cuff was placed at the upper arm level and at the wrist. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: The reactive rise in systolic and diastolic blood pressure to cuff inflation was measured in 34 normotensive participants and 34 hypertensive patients. Each participant was equipped with two cuffs, one around the right upper arm (OMRON HEM-CR19, 22-32 cm) and one around the right wrist (OMRON HEM-CS 19, 17-22 cm; Omron Health Care Europe BV, Hoofddorp, The Netherlands). The cuffs were inflated in a double random order (maximal cuff pressure and position of the cuff) with two maximal cuff pressures: 180 and 240 mmHg. The cuffs were linked to an oscillometric device (OMRON HEM 907; Omron Health Care). Simultaneously, blood pressure was measured continuously at the middle finger of the left hand using photoplethysmography. Three measurements were made at each level of blood pressure at the arm and at the wrist, and the sequence of measurements was randomized. RESULTS: In normotensive participants, no significant difference was observed in the reactive rise in blood pressure when the cuff was inflated either at the arm or at the wrist irrespective of the level of cuff inflation. Inflating a cuff at the arm, however, induced a significantly greater rise in blood pressure than inflating it at the wrist in hypertensive participants for both systolic and diastolic pressures (P<0.01), and at both levels of cuff inflation. The blood pressure response to cuff inflation was independent of baseline blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that in hypertensive patients, cuff inflation at the wrist produces a smaller reactive rise in blood pressure. The difference between the arm and the wrist is independent of the patient's level of blood pressure.

Persistence of cognitive impairment and its negative impact on psychosocial functioning in lithium-treated, euthymic bipolar patients: a 6-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Previous cross-sectional studies report that cognitive impairment is associated with poor psychosocial functioning in euthymic bipolar patients. There is a lack of long-term studies to determine the course of cognitive impairment and its impact on functional outcome. Method A total of 54 subjects were assessed at baseline and 6 years later; 28 had DSM-IV TR bipolar I or II disorder (recruited, at baseline, from a Lithium Clinic Program) and 26 were healthy matched controls. They were all assessed with a cognitive battery tapping into the main cognitive domains (executive function, attention, processing speed, verbal memory and visual memory) twice over a 6-year follow-up period. All patients were euthymic (Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression score lower than 8 and Young mania rating scale score lower than 6) for at least 3 months before both evaluations. At the end of follow-up, psychosocial functioning was also evaluated by means of the Functioning Assessment Short Test. RESULTS: Repeated-measures multivariate analysis of covariance showed that there were main effects of group in the executive domain, in the inhibition domain, in the processing speed domain, and in the verbal memory domain (p<0.04). Among the clinical factors, only longer illness duration was significantly related to slow processing (p=0.01), whereas strong relationships were observed between impoverished cognition along time and poorer psychosocial functioning (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Executive functioning, inhibition, processing speed and verbal memory were impaired in euthymic bipolar out-patients. Although cognitive deficits remained stable on average throughout the follow-up, they had enduring negative effects on psychosocial adaptation of patients.

Effects of colonization asymmetries on metapopulation persistence.

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity.

The Persistence of Finnish Equity Fund Performance

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, esiintyykö suomeen sijoittavilla osakerahastoilla menestyksen pysyvyyttä. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu kaikista suomalaisista osakerahastoista, jotka toimivat ajanjaksolla 15.1.1998-13.1.2005. Aineisto on vapaa selviytymisvinoumasta. Suorituskyvyn mittareina käytetään CAPM-alfaa sekä kolmi- ja nelifaktori-alfaa. Empiirisessä osassa osakerahastojen menestyksen pysyvyyttä testataan Spearmanin järjestyskorrelaatiotestillä. Evidenssi menestyksen pysyvyydestä jäi vähäiseksi, vaikkakin sitä esiintyi satunnaisesti kaikilla menestysmittareilla joillakin ranking- ja sijoitusperiodin yhdistelmillä. CAPM-alfalla tarkasteltuna tilastollisesti merkitsevää menestyksen pysyvyyttä esiintyi selvästi useammin kuin muilla menestysmittareilla. Tulokset tukevat viimeaikaisia kansainvälisiä tutkimuksia, joiden mukaan menestyksen pysyvyys riippuu usein mittaustavasta. Menestysmittareina käytettyjen regressiomallien merkitsevyystestit osoittavat multifaktorimallien selittävän osakerahastojen tuottoja CAPM:a paremmin. Lisätyt muuttujat parantavat merkittävästi CAPM:n selitysvoimaa.

Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Short communication. Persistence of point crop yield subjective estimates

En este trabajo se investiga la persistencia de las estimaciones puntuales subjetivas de rendimientos en cultivos anua- les realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. La persistencia en el tiempo es una condición necesaria para la co- herencia y la confiabilidad de las estimaciones subjetivas de variables aleatorias. Los sujetos entrevistados estimaron valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos anuales (rendimientos medio, mayor, mínimo y más frecuente). Se han encontrado diferencias relativas poco importantes en todas las variables, excepto en los rendimientos mínimos, donde existe una alta dispersión. Los resultados son interesantes para estimar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas para ser utilizadas en los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Persistence of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance Mutations Associated with Fitness Costs and Viral Genetic Backgrounds.

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare. Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables. In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates. Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.

The potential impact of new effervescent alendronate formulation on compliance and persistence in osteoporosis treatment.

Osteoporotic fractures are a public health problem and their incidence and subsequent economic and social costs are expected to rise in the next future. Different drugs have been developed to reduce osteoporosis and the risk of osteoporotic fractures, and among them, antiresorptive agents, and in particular oral alendronate, are the most widely utilized. However, one of the most common problems with antiresorptive drugs is poor adherence to treatment, which is associated with a high fracture incidence and with an increase in hospitalization costs. One of the main reasons of poor adherence to these treatments is the occurrence of adverse events, mainly at gastrointestinal (GI) level, including dyspepsia, dysphagia, and esophageal ulcers. In light of these considerations the aim of this paper is to perform a literature review to show the pathophysiologic bases of GI alendronate-induced adverse events and how new bisphosphonate formulations like effervescent alendronate can improve compliance and persistence to treatment and decrease the fracture rate incidence in osteoporotic patients.

The persistence of return on assets: differences between industries and differences between firms

This study offers a statistical analysis of the persistence of annual profits across a sample of firms from different European Union (EU) countries. To this end, a Bayesian dynamic model has been used which enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural component on the one hand and a transitory component on the other, while also distinguishing between general effects affecting the industry as a whole to which each firm belongs and specific effects affecting each firm in particular. This break down enables the relative importance of those fundamental components to be evaluated. The data analysed come from a sample of 23,293 firms in EU countries selected from the AMADEUS data-base. The period analysed ran from 1999 to 2007 and 21 sectors were analysed, chosen in such a way that there was a sufficiently large number of firms in each country*sector combination for the industry effects to be estimated accurately enough for meaningful comparisons to be made by sector and country. The analysis has been conducted by sector and by country from a Bayesian perspective, thus making the study more flexible and realistic since the estimates obtained do not depend on asymptotic results. In general terms, the study finds that, although the industry effects are significant, more important are the specific effects. That importance varies depending on the sector or the country in which the firm carries out its activity. The influence of firm effects accounts for more than 90% of total variation and display a significantly lower degree of persistence, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 51.1%. However, this pattern is not homogeneous but depends on the sector and country analysed. Industry effects have a more marginal importance, being significantly more persistent, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 10% with this degree of persistence being more homogeneous at both country and sector levels.

Persistence of tracer in the application site -a potential confounding factor in nerve regeneration studies

Selective reinnervation of peripheral targets after nerve injury might be assessed by injecting a first tracer in a target before nerve injury to label the original neuronal population, and applying a second tracer after the regeneration period to label the regenerated population. However, altered uptake of tracer, fading, and cell death may interfere with the results. Furthermore, if the first tracer injected remains in the target tissue, available for 're-uptake' by misdirected regenerating axons, which originally innervated another region, then the identification of the original population would be confused. With the aim of studying this problem, the sciatic nerve of adult rats was sectioned and sutured. After 3 days, to allow the distal axon to degenerate avoiding immediate retrograde transport, one of the dyes: Fast Blue (FB), Fluoro-Gold (FG) or Diamidino Yellow (DY), was injected into the tibial branch of the sciatic nerve, or in the skin of one of the denervated digits. Rats survived 2-3 months. The results showed labelled dorsal root ganglion (DRG) cells and motoneurones, indicating that late re-uptake of a first tracer occurs. This phenomenon must be considered when the model of sequential labelling is used for studying the accuracy of peripheral reinnervation.