Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Career choice and the experience of project-based work

The nature and context of project-based work combines with sector characteristics to present both barriers and benefits that influence career choices and experiences. Using social cognitive career theory (SCCT) as a lens, this paper contributes to understanding of the relative involvement of women and men in project roles by exploring the ways they perceive the experience and opportunities of project based work. With such diverse outcomes for men and women on almost all measures it is obvious projects can be a nightmare of different treatment and different experiences for men and women. The question of how organisations can ensure equal opportunity of the benefits and the burdens of work in projects continues to grow.

Choice impulsivity: Definitions, measurement issues, and clinical implications

Background Impulsivity critically relates to many psychiatric disorders. Given the multifaceted construct that impulsivity represents, defining core aspects of impulsivity is vital for the assessment and understanding of clinical conditions. Choice impulsivity (CI), involving the preferential selection of smaller sooner rewards over larger later rewards, represents one important type of impulsivity. Method The International Society for Research on Impulsivity (InSRI) convened to discuss the definition and assessment of CI and provide recommendations regarding measurement across species. Results Commonly used preclinical and clinical CI behavioral tasks are described, and considerations for each task are provided to guide CI task selection. Differences in assessment of CI (self-report, behavioral) and calculating CI indices (e.g., area-under-the-curve, indifference point, steepness of discounting curve) are discussed along with properties of specific behavioral tasks used in preclinical and clinical settings. Conclusions The InSRI group recommends inclusion of measures of CI in human studies examining impulsivity. Animal studies examining impulsivity should also include assessments of CI and these measures should be harmonized in accordance with human studies of the disorders being modeled in the preclinical investigations. The choice of specific CI measures to be included should be based on the goals of the study and existing preclinical and clinical literature using established CI measures.

Informatics to support patient choice between diverse medical systems

Culturally, philosophically and religiously diverse medical systems including Western medicine, Traditional Chinese Medicine, Ayurvedic Medicine and Homeopathic Medicine, once situated in places and times relatively unconnected from each other, currently co-exist to a point where patients must choose which system to consult. These decisions require comparative analyses, yet the divergence in key underpinning assumptions is so great that comparisons cannot easily be made. However, diverse medical systems can be meaningfully juxtaposed for the purpose of making practical decisions if relevant information is presented appropriately. Information regarding privacy provisions inherent in the typical practice of each medical system is an important element in this juxtaposition. In this paper the information needs of patients making decisions regarding the selection of a medical system are examined.

Financial literacy and superannuation investment decision-making in a choice environment : an exploratory study

This thesis examines superannuation fund members' level of financial literacy and its association with investment choice decisions in the setting of the mandatory superannuation system in Australia. It also investigates a range of contextual and socio-demographic factors in explaining financial literacy and investment choice. The empirical analysis shows that while most survey respondents displayed high levels of self-rated and general financial literacy, fewer scored as well in relation to more advanced literacy regarding superannuation investment options. The findings of this study have important implications for policy-makers and the superannuation industry in educating and engaging with fund members.

Examining the neural correlates of choice behavior in a gambling task using steady state topography

The present study investigated the behavioral and neuropsychological characteristics of decision-making behavior during a gambling task as well as how these characteristics may relate to the Somatic Marker Hypothesis and the Frequency of Gain model. The applicability to intertemporal choice was also discussed. Patterns of card selection during a computerized interpretation of the Iowa Gambling Task were assessed for 10 men and 10 women. Steady State Topography was employed to assess cortical processing throughout this task. Results supported the hypothesis that patterns of card selection were in line with both theories. As hypothesized, these 2 patterns of card selection were also associated with distinct patterns of cortical activity, suggesting that intertemporal choice may involve the recruitment of right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex for somatic labeling, left fusiform gyrus for object representations, and the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex for an analysis of the associated frequency of gain or loss. It is suggested that processes contributing to intertemporal choice may include inhibition of negatively valenced options, guiding decisions away from those options, as well as computations favoring frequently rewarded options.

For sale - sex in the country: The benefits of sex work as an occupational choice in rural NSW Australia

Drawing upon sociology of work, feminist theory and past sex worker research, we present the first study to explore the sex work industry in rural Australia. Using qualitative data from interviews conducted December 2004 - February 2005 with 20 sex industry workers in New South Wales, we question existing assumptions and generalizations surrounding contemporary sex work to explore how industry workers perceive their career experiences. Specifically, we explore workers’ motivations for entering and continuing to be involved in the industry, the profession benefits and historical changes. In contrast to radical feminist theory’s equation of sex work with victimization, these narratives by rural sex workers portray experiences of sexual empowerment, economic advancement, job flexibility, achievement and examples of positive social interaction. In conclusion, our findings provide contrasting data to the sex politics surrounding “prostitution” put forth by radical feminists as we reaffirm the sex industry to be a legitimate career option in rural Australia and challenge the determinism used to labelled sex work as definitively degrading and deleterious to women.

The influence of social media on international students' choice of university and course

This thesis is a qualitative study of the influence of social media on the university and course decision making process of international students. It examines the role of social media in influencing international students' decisions on course and university selection and the role of social media in meeting their information needs. It also gathered inputs on how universities could engage, collaborate and communicate using social media communities and channels for more effective recruitment strategies.

The co-transcriptome of uropathogenic Escherichia coli-infected mouse macrophages reveals new insights into host-pathogen interactions

Urinary tract infections (UTI) are among the most common infections in humans. Uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) can invade and replicate within bladder epithelial cells, and some UPEC strains can also survive within macrophages. To understand the UPEC transcriptional program associated with intramacrophage survival, we performed host–pathogen co-transcriptome analyses using RNA sequencing. Mouse bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMMs) were challenged over a 24 h time course with two UPEC reference strains that possess contrasting intramacrophage phenotypes: UTI89, which survives in BMMs, and 83972, which is killed by BMMs. Neither of these strains caused significant BMM cell death at the low multiplicity of infection that was used in this study. We developed an effective computational framework that simultaneously separated, annotated, and quantified the mammalian and bacterial transcriptomes. BMMs responded to the two UPEC strains with a broadly similar gene expression program. In contrast, the transcriptional responses of the UPEC strains diverged markedly from each other. We identified UTI89 genes upregulated at 24 h post-infection, and hypothesized that some may contribute to intramacrophage survival. Indeed, we showed that deletion of one such gene (pspA) significantly reduced UTI89 survival within BMMs. Our study provides a technological framework for simultaneously capturing global changes at the transcriptional level in co-cultures, and has generated new insights into the mechanisms that UPEC use to persist within the intramacrophage environment.

Transcriptome analyses of amoebic gill disease-affected atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) tissues reveal localized host gene suppression

The transcriptome response of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) displaying advanced stages of amoebic gill disease (AGD) was investigated. Naïve smolt were challenged with AGD for 19 days, at which time all fish were euthanized and their severity of infection quantified through histopathological scoring. Gene expression profiles were compared between heavily infected and naïve individuals using a 17 K Atlantic salmon cDNA microarray with real-time quantitative RT-PCR (qPCR) verification. Expression profiles were examined in the gill, anterior kidney, and liver. Twenty-seven transcripts were significantly differentially expressed within the gill; 20 of these transcripts were down-regulated in the AGD-affected individuals compared with naïve individuals. In contrast, only nine transcripts were significantly differentially expressed within the anterior kidney and five within the liver. Again the majority of these transcripts were down-regulated within the diseased individuals. A down-regulation of transcripts involved in apoptosis (procathepsin L, cathepsin H precursor, and cystatin B) was observed in AGD-affected Atlantic salmon. Four transcripts encoding genes with antioxidant properties also were down-regulated in AGD-affected gill tissue according to qPCR analysis. The most up-regulated transcript within the gill was an unknown expressed sequence tag (EST) whose expression was 218-fold (± SE 66) higher within the AGD affected gill tissue. Our results suggest that Atlantic salmon experiencing advanced stages of AGD demonstrate general down-regulation of gene expression, which is most pronounced within the gill. We propose that this general gene suppression is parasite-mediated, thus allowing the parasite to withstand or ameliorate the host response. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection

Background The benign reputation of Plasmodium vivax is at odds with the burden and severity of the disease. This reputation, combined with restricted in vitro techniques, has slowed efforts to gain an understanding of the parasite biology and interaction with its human host. Methods A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. vivax infection is described, incorporating distinctive characteristics of the parasite such as the preferential invasion of reticulocytes and hypnozoite production. The developed model is fitted using digitized time-series’ from historic neurosyphilis studies, and subsequently validated against summary statistics from a larger study of the same population. The Chesson relapse pattern was used to demonstrate the impact of released hypnozoites. Results The typical pattern for dynamics of the parasite population is a rapid exponential increase in the first 10 days, followed by a gradual decline. Gametocyte counts follow a similar trend, but are approximately two orders of magnitude lower. The model predicts that, on average, an infected naïve host in the absence of treatment becomes infectious 7.9 days post patency and is infectious for a mean of 34.4 days. In the absence of treatment, the effect of hypnozoite release was not apparent as newly released parasites were obscured by the existing infection. Conclusions The results from the model provides useful insights into the dynamics of P. vivax infection in human hosts, in particular the timing of host infectiousness and the role of the hypnozoite in perpetuating infection.

Non-market use and non-use values for preserving ecosystem services over time : a choice experiment application to coral reef ecosystems in New Caledonia

Non-use values (i.e. economic values assigned by individuals to ecosystem goods and services unrelated to current or future uses) provide one of the most compelling incentives for the preservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. Assessing the non-use values of non-users is relatively straightforward using stated preference methods, but the standard approaches for estimating non-use values of users (stated decomposition) have substantial shortcomings which undermine the robustness of their results. In this paper, we propose a pragmatic interpretation of non-use values to derive estimates that capture their main dimensions, based on the identification of a willingness to pay for ecosystem protection beyond one's expected life. We empirically test our approach using a choice experiment conducted on coral reef ecosystem protection in two coastal areas in New Caledonia with different institutional, cultural, environmental and socio-economic contexts. We compute individual willingness to pay estimates, and derive individual non-use value estimates using our interpretation. We find that, a minima, estimates of non-use values may comprise between 25 and 40% of the mean willingness to pay for ecosystem preservation, less than has been found in most studies.

Elucidating the host-pathogen interactions between in vitro human cells and enterovirus 71 in Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD)

This study has provided further understanding of the pathogenesis of EV71, one of the major etiological agents associated with significant mortality in Hand, Foot and Mouth disease. Elucidating the host-pathogen interaction and the mechanism that the virus uses to bypass host defence systems to establish infection will aid in the development of potential antiviral therapeutics against EV71.

Mesenchymal stromal cells transiently alter the inflammatory milieu post-transplant to delay graft-versus-host disease

Background: Multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells suppress T-cell function in vitro, a property that has underpinned their use in treating clinical steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. However the potential of mesenchymal stromal cells to resolve graft-versus-host disease is confounded by a paucity of pre-clinical data delineating their immunomodulatory effects in vivo. Design and Methods: We examined the influence of timing and dose of donor-derived mesenchymal stromal cells on the kinetics of graft-versus-host disease in two murine models of graft-versus-host disease (major histocompatibility complex-mismatched: UBI-GFP/BL6 [H-2b]→BALB/c [H-2d] and the sibling transplant mimic, UBI-GFP/BL6 [H-2b]→BALB.B [H-2b]) using clinically relevant conditioning regimens. We also examined the effect of mesenchymal stromal cell infusion on bone marrow and spleen cellular composition and cytokine secretion in transplant recipients. Results: Despite T-cell suppression in vitro, mesenchymal stromal cells delayed but did not prevent graft-versus-host disease in the major histocompatibility complex-mismatched model. In the sibling transplant model, however, 30% of mesenchymal stromal cell-treated mice did not develop graft-versus-host disease. The timing of administration and dose of the mesenchymal stromal cells influenced their effectiveness in attenuating graft-versus-host disease, such that a low dose of mesenchymal stromal cells administered early was more effective than a high dose of mesenchymal stromal cells given late. Compared to control-treated mice, mesenchymal stromal cell-treated mice had significant reductions in serum and splenic interferon-γ, an important mediator of graft-versus-host disease. Conclusions: Mesenchymal stromal cells appear to delay death from graft-versus-host disease by transiently altering the inflammatory milieu and reducing levels of interferon-γ. Our data suggest that both the timing of infusion and the dose of mesenchymal stromal cells likely influence these cells’ effectiveness in attenuating graft-versus-host disease.