Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Soil water dynamics and availability for citrus and peanut along a hillslope at the Sunjia Red Soil Critical Zone Observatory (CZO)

Acknowledgments This work was granted by the China-UK jointed Red Soil Critical Zone project from National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC: 41571130053; 41301233) and from Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC: Code: NE/N007611/1), and by the National Key Technology R&D Program of China (2011BAD31B04). We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

Integrated assessment of groundwater – surface water exchange in the hillslope – riparian interface of a montane catchment

Non peer reviewed

Simulating Everglades National Park hydrology and phosphorus transport under existing and future scenarios using numerical modeling

The Florida Everglades has a long history of anthropogenic changes which have impacted the quantity and quality of water entering the system. Since the construction of Tamiami Trail in the 1920's, overland flow to the Florida Everglades has decreased significantly, impacting ecosystems from the wetlands to the estuary. The MIKE Marsh Model of Everglades National Park (M3ENP) is a numerical model, which simulates Everglades National Park (ENP) hydrology using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11software. This model has been developed to determine the parameters that effect Everglades hydrology and understand the impact of specific flow changes on the hydrology of the system. As part of the effort to return flows to the historical levels, several changes to the existing water management infrastructure have been implemented or are in the design phase. Bridge construction scenarios were programed into the M3ENP model to review the effect of these structural changes and evaluate the potential impacts on water levels and hydroperiods in the receiving Northeast Shark Slough ecosystem. These scenarios have shown critical water level increases in an area which has been in decline due to low water levels. Results from this work may help guide future decisions for restoration designs. Excess phosphorus entering Everglades National Park in South Florida may promote the growth of more phosphorus-opportunistic species and alter the food chain from the bottom up. Two phosphorus transport methods were developed into the M3ENP hydrodynamic model to determine the factors affecting phosphorus transport and the impact of bridge construction on water quality. Results showed that while phosphorus concentrations in surface waters decreased overall, some areas within ENP interior may experience an increase in phosphorus loading which the addition of bridges to Tamiami Trail. Finally, phosphorus data and modeled water level data was used to evaluate the spectral response of Everglades vegetation to increasing phosphorus availability using Landsat imagery.

Assessing land–ocean connectivity via submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the Ria Formosa Lagoon (Portugal): combining radon measurements and stable isotope hydrology

Natural radioactive tracer-based assessments of basin-scale submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) are well developed. However, SGD takes place in different modes and the flow and discharge mechanisms involved occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Quantifying SGD while discriminating its source functions therefore remains a major challenge. However, correctly identifying both the fluid source and composition is critical. When multiple sources of the tracer of interest are present, failure to adequately discriminate between them leads to inaccurate attribution and the resulting uncertainties will affect the reliability of SGD solute loading estimates. This lack of reliability then extends to the closure of local biogeochemical budgets, confusing measures aiming to mitigate pollution. Here, we report a multi-tracer study to identify the sources of SGD, distinguish its component parts and elucidate the mechanisms of their dispersion throughout the Ria Formosa – a seasonally hypersaline lagoon in Portugal. We combine radon budgets that determine the total SGD (meteoric + recirculated seawater) in the system with stable isotopes in water (δ2H, δ18O), to specifically identify SGD source functions and characterize active hydrological pathways in the catchment. Using this approach, SGD in the Ria Formosa could be separated into two modes, a net meteoric water input and another involving no net water transfer, i.e., originating in lagoon water re-circulated through permeable sediments. The former SGD mode is present occasionally on a multi-annual timescale, while the latter is a dominant feature of the system. In the absence of meteoric SGD inputs, seawater recirculation through beach sediments occurs at a rate of  ∼  1.4  ×  106 m3 day−1. This implies that the entire tidal-averaged volume of the lagoon is filtered through local sandy sediments within 100 days ( ∼  3.5 times a year), driving an estimated nitrogen (N) load of  ∼  350 Ton N yr−1 into the system as NO3−. Land-borne SGD could add a further  ∼  61 Ton N yr−1 to the lagoon. The former source is autochthonous, continuous and responsible for a large fraction (59 %) of the estimated total N inputs into the system via non-point sources, while the latter is an occasional allochthonous source capable of driving new production in the system.

Novel analytical and numerical methods for solving fractional dynamical systems

During the past three decades, the subject of fractional calculus (that is, calculus of integrals and derivatives of arbitrary order) has gained considerable popularity and importance, mainly due to its demonstrated applications in numerous diverse and widespread fields in science and engineering. For example, fractional calculus has been successfully applied to problems in system biology, physics, chemistry and biochemistry, hydrology, medicine, and finance. In many cases these new fractional-order models are more adequate than the previously used integer-order models, because fractional derivatives and integrals enable the description of the memory and hereditary properties inherent in various materials and processes that are governed by anomalous diffusion. Hence, there is a growing need to find the solution behaviour of these fractional differential equations. However, the analytic solutions of most fractional differential equations generally cannot be obtained. As a consequence, approximate and numerical techniques are playing an important role in identifying the solution behaviour of such fractional equations and exploring their applications. The main objective of this thesis is to develop new effective numerical methods and supporting analysis, based on the finite difference and finite element methods, for solving time, space and time-space fractional dynamical systems involving fractional derivatives in one and two spatial dimensions. A series of five published papers and one manuscript in preparation will be presented on the solution of the space fractional diffusion equation, space fractional advectiondispersion equation, time and space fractional diffusion equation, time and space fractional Fokker-Planck equation with a linear or non-linear source term, and fractional cable equation involving two time fractional derivatives, respectively. One important contribution of this thesis is the demonstration of how to choose different approximation techniques for different fractional derivatives. Special attention has been paid to the Riesz space fractional derivative, due to its important application in the field of groundwater flow, system biology and finance. We present three numerical methods to approximate the Riesz space fractional derivative, namely the L1/ L2-approximation method, the standard/shifted Gr¨unwald method, and the matrix transform method (MTM). The first two methods are based on the finite difference method, while the MTM allows discretisation in space using either the finite difference or finite element methods. Furthermore, we prove the equivalence of the Riesz fractional derivative and the fractional Laplacian operator under homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions – a result that had not previously been established. This result justifies the aforementioned use of the MTM to approximate the Riesz fractional derivative. After spatial discretisation, the time-space fractional partial differential equation is transformed into a system of fractional-in-time differential equations. We then investigate numerical methods to handle time fractional derivatives, be they Caputo type or Riemann-Liouville type. This leads to new methods utilising either finite difference strategies or the Laplace transform method for advancing the solution in time. The stability and convergence of our proposed numerical methods are also investigated. Numerical experiments are carried out in support of our theoretical analysis. We also emphasise that the numerical methods we develop are applicable for many other types of fractional partial differential equations.

Coal Seam Gas Water from Maramarua, New Zealand: Characterisation and Comparison to United States Analogues

Groundwater from Maramarua has been identified as coal seam gas (CSG) water by studying its composition, and comparing it against the geochemical signature from other CSG basins. CSG is natural gas that has been produced through thermogenic and biogenic processes in underground coal seams; CSG extraction requires the abstraction of significant amounts of CSG water. To date, no international literature has described coal seam gas water in New Zealand, however recent CSG exploration work has resulted in CSG water quality data from a coal seam in Maramarua, New Zealand. Water quality from this site closely follows the geochemical signature associated with United States CSG waters, and this has helped to characterise the type of water being abstracted. CSG water from this part of Maramarua has low calcium, magnesium, and sulphate concentrations but high sodium (334 mg/l), chloride (146 mg/l) and bicarbonate (435 mg/l) concentrations. In addition, this water has high pH (7.8) and alkalinity (360 mg/l as CaCO3), which is a direct consequence of carbonate dissolution and biogenic processes. Different analyte ratios ('source-rock deduction' method) have helped to identify the different formation processes responsible in shaping Maramarua CSG water

Estimation of WGEN Weather Generation Parameters in Arid Climates

This research discusses some of the issues encountered while developing a set of WGEN parameters for Chile and advice for others interested in developing WGEN parameters for arid climates. The WGEN program is a commonly used and a valuable research tool; however, it has specific limitations in arid climates that need careful consideration. These limitations are analysed in the context of generating a set of WGEN parameters for Chile. Fourteen to 26 years of precipitation data are used to calculate precipitation parameters for 18 locations in Chile, and 3–8 years of temperature and solar radiation data are analysed to generate parameters for seven of these locations. Results indicate that weather generation parameters in arid regions are sensitive to erroneous or missing precipitation data. Research shows that the WGEN-estimated gamma distribution shape parameter (α) for daily precipitation in arid zones will tend to cluster around discrete values of 0 or 1, masking the high sensitivity of these parameters to additional data. Rather than focus on the length in years when assessing the adequacy of a data record for estimation of precipitation parameters, researchers should focus on the number of wet days in dry months in a data set. Analysis of the WGEN routines for the estimation of temperature and solar radiation parameters indicates that errors can occur when individual ‘months’ have fewer than two wet days in the data set. Recommendations are provided to improve methods for estimation of WGEN parameters in arid climates.

A comprehensive investigation into the hydrodynamic and capture/retention performance of a gross pollutant trap

A novel and comprehensive testing approach to examine the performance of gross pollutant traps (GPTs) was developed. A proprietary GPT with internal screens for capturing gross pollutants—organic matter and anthropogenic litter—was used as a case study. This work is the first investigation of its kind and provides valuable practical information for the design, selection and operation of GPTs and also the management of street waste in an urban environment. It used a combination of physical and theoretical models to examine in detail the hydrodynamic and capture/retention characteristics of the GPT. The results showed that the GPT operated efficiently until at least 68% of the screens were blocked, particularly at high flow rates. At lower flow rates, the high capture/retention performance trend was reversed. It was also found that a raised inlet GPT offered a better capture/retention performance. This finding indicates that cleaning operations could be more effectively planned in conjunction with the deterioration in GPT’s capture/retention performance.