Transport simulation : beyond traditional approaches

In recent years, the transport simulation of large road networks has become far more rapid and detailed, and many exciting developments in this field have emerged. In this perspective, the authors describe the simulation of automobile, pedestrian and rail traffic, coupled to new applications, such as the embedding of traffic simulation into driving simulators, to give a more realistic environment of driver behavior surrounding the subject vehicle.

Development of a particle number and particle mass vehicle emissions inventory for an urban fleet

Motor vehicles are major emitters of gaseous and particulate pollution in urban areas, and exposure to particulate pollution can have serious health effects, ranging from respiratory and cardiovascular disease to mortality. Motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions span a broad size range from 0.003-10µm, and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, no comprehensive inventories currently exist in the international published literature covering this wide size range. This paper presents the first published comprehensive inventory of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted. The inventory was developed for urban South-East Queensland by combining two techniques from distinctly different disciplines, from aerosol science and transport modelling. A comprehensive set of particle emission factors were combined with traffic modelling, and tailpipe particle emissions were quantified for particle number (ultrafine particles), PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 for light and heavy duty vehicles and buses. A second aim of the paper involved using the data derived in this inventory for scenario analyses, to model the particle emission implications of different proportions of passengers travelling in light duty vehicles and buses in the study region, and to derive an estimate of fleet particle emissions in 2026. It was found that heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) in the study region were major emitters of particulate matter pollution, and although they contributed only around 6% of total regional vehicle kilometres travelled, they contributed more than 50% of the region’s particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions. With the freight task in the region predicted to double over the next 20 years, this suggests that HDVs need to be a major focus of mitigation efforts. HDVs dominated particle number (ultrafine particles) and PM1 emissions; and LDV PM2.5 and PM10 emissions. Buses contributed approximately 1-2% of regional particle emissions.

Application of system dynamics for evaluating truck load regulations in Anhui, China

In the critical situation of prevailing overweight transportation and crag-fast enforcement in Chinese highway networks, this paper develops a methodological framework for truck weight regulation (TWR) evaluation using System Dynamics (SD). Composed of five interrelated subsystems, the framework is able to capture the highway, vehicle and freight variables that influence the effect of TWR and transportation efficiency over time. It specifically describes the development and use of the Truck Weight Regulation Evaluating Model (TWREM) for the highway freight system in Anhui province, China. Three policy alternatives are analyzed: 1) tolerant policy approach, which allows heavy-duty freight activity to continue in its current state, and is shown to lead to nearly catastrophic results; 2) rigid policy approach, which would terminate all heavy-duty freight activities immediately, and is shown to be economically infeasible; and 3) moderate policy approach, which advocates a gradual reduction of heavy-duty freight activities to a moderate state. The simulation results shows that the moderate policy approach is the most appropriate option to solve the social and economic problems arising from the activities of the heavy-duty freight transportation in Anhui. In addition, some suggestions of TWR policy in China are also made in this paper.

Numerical simulation of axially loaded concrete columns under transverse impact and vulnerability assessment

With a view to assessing the vulnerability of columns to low elevation vehicular impacts, a non-linear explicit numerical model has been developed and validated using existing experimental results. The numerical model accounts for the effects of strain rate and confinement of the reinforced concrete, which are fundamental to the successful prediction of the impact response. The sensitivity of the material model parameters used for the validation is also scrutinised and numerical tests are performed to examine their suitability to simulate the shear failure conditions. Conflicting views on the strain gradient effects are discussed and the validation process is extended to investigate the ability of the equations developed under concentric loading conditions to simulate flexural failure events. Experimental data on impact force–time histories, mid span and residual deflections and support reactions have been verified against corresponding numerical results. A universal technique which can be applied to determine the vulnerability of the impacted columns against collisions with new generation vehicles under the most common impact modes is proposed. Additionally, the observed failure characteristics of the impacted columns are explained using extended outcomes. Based on the overall results, an analytical method is suggested to quantify the vulnerability of the columns.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Traffic and climate change impacts on water quality : measuring build-up and wash-off of heavy metals and petroleum hydrocarbons

Understanding the impacts of traffic and climate change on water quality helps decision makers to develop better policy and plans for dealing with unsustainable urban and transport development. This chapter presents detailed methodologies developed for sample collection and testing for heavy metals and total petroleum hydrocarbons, as part of a research study to investigate the impacts of climate change and changes to urban traffic characteristics on pollutant build-up and wash-off from urban road surfaces. Cadmium, chromium, nickel, copper, lead, iron, aluminium, manganese and zinc were the target heavy metals, and selected gasoline and diesel range organics were the target total petroleum hydrocarbons for this study. The study sites were selected to encompass the urban traffic characteristics of the Gold Coast region, Australia. An improved sample collection method referred to as ‘the wet and dry vacuum system’ for the pollutant build-up, and an effective wash-off plan to incorporate predicted changes to rainfall characteristics due to climate change, were implemented. The novel approach to sample collection for pollutant build-up helped to maintain the integrity of collection efficiency. The wash-off plan helped to incorporate the predicted impacts of climate change in the Gold Coast region. The robust experimental methods developed will help in field sample collection and chemical testing of different stormwater pollutants in build-up and wash-off.

Ions in motor vehicle exhaust and their dispersion near busy roads

Measurements in the exhaust plume of a petrol-driven motor car showed that molecular cluster ions of both signs were present in approximately equal amounts. The emission rate increased sharply with engine speed while the charge symmetry remained unchanged. Measurements at the kerbside of nine motorways and five city roads showed that the mean total cluster ion concentration near city roads (603 cm-3) was about one-half of that near motorways (1211 cm-3) and about twice as high as that in the urban background (269 cm-3). Both positive and negative ion concentrations near a motorway showed a significant linear increase with traffic density (R2=0.3 at p<0.05) and correlated well with each other in real time (R2=0.87 at p<0.01). Heavy duty diesel vehicles comprised the main source of ions near busy roads. Measurements were conducted as a function of downwind distance from two motorways carrying around 120-150 vehicles per minute. Total traffic-related cluster ion concentrations decreased rapidly with distance, falling by one-half from the closest approach of 2m to 5m of the kerb. Measured concentrations decreased to background at about 15m from the kerb when the wind speed was 1.3 m s-1, this distance being greater at higher wind speed. The number and net charge concentrations of aerosol particles were also measured. Unlike particles that were carried downwind to distances of a few hundred metres, cluster ions emitted by motor vehicles were not present at more than a few tens of metres from the road.

Autonomous underwater vehicle trajectory design coupled with predictive ocean models : a case study

Data collection using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is increasing in importance within the oceano- graphic research community. Contrary to traditional moored or static platforms, mobile sensors require intelligent planning strategies to manoeuvre through the ocean. However, the ability to navigate to high-value locations and collect data with specific scientific merit is worth the planning efforts. In this study, we examine the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, and aid in planning the trajectory that the vehicle executes during the sampling mission. The objectives are: a) to provide near-real time, in situ measurements to a large-scale ocean model to increase the skill of future predictions, and b) to utilize ocean model predictions as a component in an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We present an algorithm designed to generate paths for AUVs to track a dynamically evolving ocean feature utilizing ocean model predictions. This builds on previous work in this area by incorporating the predicted current velocities into the path planning to assist in solving the 3-D motion planning problem of steering an AUV between two selected locations. We present simulation results for tracking a fresh water plume by use of our algorithm. Additionally, we present experimental results from field trials that test the skill of the model used as well as the incorporation of the model predictions into an AUV trajectory planner. These results indicate a modest, but measurable, improvement in surfacing error when the model predictions are incorporated into the planner.

Multi-objective four-dimensional vehicle motion planning in large dynamic environments

This paper presents Multi-Step A* (MSA*), a search algorithm based on A* for multi-objective 4D vehicle motion planning (three spatial and one time dimension). The research is principally motivated by the need for offline and online motion planning for autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). For UAVs operating in large, dynamic and uncertain 4D environments, the motion plan consists of a sequence of connected linear tracks (or trajectory segments). The track angle and velocity are important parameters that are often restricted by assumptions and grid geometry in conventional motion planners. Many existing planners also fail to incorporate multiple decision criteria and constraints such as wind, fuel, dynamic obstacles and the rules of the air. It is shown that MSA* finds a cost optimal solution using variable length, angle and velocity trajectory segments. These segments are approximated with a grid based cell sequence that provides an inherent tolerance to uncertainty. Computational efficiency is achieved by using variable successor operators to create a multi-resolution, memory efficient lattice sampling structure. Simulation studies on the UAV flight planning problem show that MSA* meets the time constraints of online replanning and finds paths of equivalent cost but in a quarter of the time (on average) of vector neighbourhood based A*.

Patterns of correlation between vehicle occupant seat pressure and anthropometry

Seat pressure is known as a major factor of seat comfort in vehicles. In passenger vehicles, there is lacking research into the seat comfort of rear seat occupants. As accurate seat pressure measurement requires significant effort, simulation of seat pressure is evolving as a preferred method. However, analytic methods are based on complex finite element modeling and therefore are time consuming and involve high investment. Based on accurate anthropometric measurements of 64 male subjects and outboard rear seat pressure measurements in three different passenger vehicles, this study investigates if a set of parameters derived from seat pressure mapping are sensitive enough to differentiate between different seats and whether they correlate with anthropometry in linear models. In addition to the pressure map analysis, H-Points were measured with a coordinate measurement system based on palpated body landmarks and the range of H-Point locations in the three seats is provided. It was found that for the cushion, cushion contact area and cushion front area/force could be modeled by subject anthropometry,while only seatback contact area could be modeled based on anthropometry for all three vehicles. Major differences were found between the vehicles for other parameters.

Digital human modelling for vehicle design and manufacturing

Digital human modelling (DHM) has today matured from research into industrial application. In the automotive domain, DHM has become a commonly used tool in virtual prototyping and human-centred product design. While this generation of DHM supports the ergonomic evaluation of new vehicle design during early design stages of the product, by modelling anthropometry, posture, motion or predicting discomfort, the future of DHM will be dominated by CAE methods, realistic 3D design, and musculoskeletal and soft tissue modelling down to the micro-scale of molecular activity within single muscle fibres. As a driving force for DHM development, the automotive industry has traditionally used human models in the manufacturing sector (production ergonomics, e.g. assembly) and the engineering sector (product ergonomics, e.g. safety, packaging). In product ergonomics applications, DHM share many common characteristics, creating a unique subset of DHM. These models are optimised for a seated posture, interface to a vehicle seat through standardised methods and provide linkages to vehicle controls. As a tool, they need to interface with other analytic instruments and integrate into complex CAD/CAE environments. Important aspects of current DHM research are functional analysis, model integration and task simulation. Digital (virtual, analytic) prototypes or digital mock-ups (DMU) provide expanded support for testing and verification and consider task-dependent performance and motion. Beyond rigid body mechanics, soft tissue modelling is evolving to become standard in future DHM. When addressing advanced issues beyond the physical domain, for example anthropometry and biomechanics, modelling of human behaviours and skills is also integrated into DHM. Latest developments include a more comprehensive approach through implementing perceptual, cognitive and performance models, representing human behaviour on a non-physiologic level. Through integration of algorithms from the artificial intelligence domain, a vision of the virtual human is emerging.

Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

Relating vehicle generated pollutants to urban stormwater quality

Rapid urbanisation and resulting continuous increase in traffic has been recognised as key factors in the contribution of increased pollutant loads to urban stormwater and in turn to receiving waters. Urbanisation primarily increases anthropogenic activities and the percentage of impervious surfaces in urban areas. These processes are collectively responsible for urban stormwater pollution. In this regard, urban traffic and land use related activities have been recognised as the primary pollutant sources. This is primarily due to the generation of a range of key pollutants such as solids, heavy metals and PAHs. Appropriate treatment system design is the most viable approach to mitigate stormwater pollution. However, limited understanding of the pollutant process and transport pathways constrains effective treatment design. This highlights necessity for the detailed understanding of traffic and other land use related pollutants processes and pathways in relation to urban stormwater pollution. This study has created new knowledge in relation to pollutant processes and transport pathways encompassing atmospheric pollutants, atmospheric deposition and build-up on ground surfaces of traffic generated key pollutants. The research study was primarily based on in-depth experimental investigations. This thesis describes the extensive knowledge created relating to the processes of atmospheric pollutant build-up, atmospheric deposition and road surface build-up and establishing their relationships as a chain of processes. The analysis of atmospheric deposition revealed that both traffic and land use related sources contribute total suspended particulate matter (TSP) to the atmosphere. Traffic sources become dominant during weekdays whereas land use related sources become dominant during weekends due to the reduction in traffic sources. The analysis further concluded that atmospheric TSP, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals (HMs) concentrations are highly influenced by total average daily heavy duty traffic, traffic congestion and the fraction of commercial and industrial land uses. A set of mathematical equation were developed to predict TSP, PAHs and HMs concentrations in the atmosphere based on the influential traffic and land use related parameters. Dry deposition samples were collected for different antecedent dry days and wet deposition samples were collected immediately after rainfall events. The dry deposition was found to increase with the antecedent dry days and consisted of relatively coarser particles (greater than 1.4 ìm) when compared to wet deposition. The wet deposition showed a strong affinity to rainfall depth, but was not related to the antecedent dry period. It was also found that smaller size particles (less than 1.4 ìm) travel much longer distances from the source and deposit mainly with the wet deposition. Pollutants in wet deposition are less sensitive to the source characteristics compared to dry deposition. Atmospheric deposition of HMs is not directly influenced by land use but rather by proximity to high emission sources such as highways. Therefore, it is important to consider atmospheric deposition as a key pollutant source to urban stormwater in the vicinity of these types of sources. Build-up was analysed for five different particle size fractions, namely, <1 ìm, 1-75 ìm, 75-150 ìm, 150-300 ìm and >300 ìm for solids, PAHs and HMs. The outcomes of the study indicated that PAHs and HMs in the <75 ìm size fraction are generated mainly by traffic related activities whereas the > 150 ìm size fraction is generated by both traffic and land use related sources. Atmospheric deposition is an important source for HMs build-up on roads, whereas the contribution of PAHs from atmospheric sources is limited. A comprehensive approach was developed to predict traffic and other land use related pollutants in urban stormwater based on traffic and other land use characteristics. This approach primarily included the development of a set of mathematical equations to predict traffic generated pollutants by linking traffic and land use characteristics to stormwater quality through mathematical modelling. The outcomes of this research will contribute to the design of appropriate treatment systems to safeguard urban receiving water quality for future traffic growth scenarios. The „real world. application of knowledge generated was demonstrated through mathematical modelling of solids in urban stormwater, accounting for the variability in traffic and land use characteristics.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

Preface to special issue on digital human modelling for vehicle design and manufacturing

The automotive industry has been the focus of digital human modeling (DHM) research and application for many years. In the highly competitive marketplace for personal transportation, the desire to improve the customer’s experience has driven extensive research in both the physical and cognitive interaction between the vehicle and its occupants. Human models provide vehicle designers with tools to view and analyze product interactions before the first prototypes are built, potentially improving the design while reducing cost and development time. The focus of DHM research and applications began with prediction and representation of static postures for purposes of driver workstation layout, including assessments of seat adjustment ranges and exterior vision. Now DHMs are used for seat design and assessment of driver reach and ingress/egress. DHMs and related simulation tools are expanding into the cognitive domain, with computational models of perception and motion, and into the dynamic domain with models of physical responses to ride and vibration. Moreover, DHMs are now widely used to analyze the ergonomics of vehicle assembly tasks. In this case, the analysis aims to determine whether workers can be expected to complete the tasks safely and with good quality. This preface provides a review of the literature to provide context for the nine new papers presented in this special issue.