Analysing Seasonal Health Data

Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to understanding the causes and possibly to developing interventions. With global warming increasing the intensity of seasonal weather patterns around the world, a review of the methods for estimating seasonal effects on health is timely. This is the first book on statistical methods for seasonal data written for a health audience. It describes methods for a range of outcomes (including continuous, count and binomial data) and demonstrates appropriate techniques for summarising and modelling these data. It has a practical focus and uses interesting examples to motivate and illustrate the methods. The statistical procedures and example data sets are available in an R package called ‘season’. Adrian Barnett is a senior research fellow at Queensland University of Technology, Australia. Annette Dobson is a Professor of Biostatistics at The University of Queensland, Australia. Both are experienced medical statisticians with a commitment to statistical education and have previously collaborated in research in the methodological developments and applications of biostatistics, especially to time series data. Among other projects, they worked together on revising the well-known textbook "An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models," third edition, Chapman Hall/CRC, 2008. In their new book they share their knowledge of statistical methods for examining seasonal patterns in health.

Introduction

This is not a book about the perils of global warming and its impact on children, although climate change provides an impetus. Nor is it a response to environmental issues that shifts responsibilities from adults to children, asking them to fix what we leave behind. Instead, it is a book of positive ideas and actions that shows what early childhood educational communities can do when children, teachers and parents work together to address, arguably, one of the most serious issues of our time. It is about what early childhood education – and specifically, early childhood teacher education – can and must do to play its part in helping societies move towards sustainable living. It is about the emerging field of early childhood education for sustainability (ECEfS).

Early childhood education for sustainability : why it matters, what it is, and how whole centre action research and systems thinking can help

The global financial crisis, global pandemics, global warming and peak oil are indicative of a world facing major environmental, social and economic problems. At the same time, world population continues to rise and global inequalities deepen. Children are the most vulnerable to the impacts of unsustainable living with specific harms arising because of their physical and cognitive vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, children do not have to be victims in the face of these challenges. Education, including early childhood education, has an important role to in building resilience and capabilities in children that equip them as active and informed citizens now and in the future and who are capable of contributing to healthy and sustainable ways of living. Drawing on educational change literature, action research, education for sustainability, health promotion and systems theory, this paper outlines three strategies that can help reorient early childhood education towards sustainability. One strategy is the adoption of whole centre approaches to sustainability and education for sustainability. This means working across the whole of a centre’s operations – curriculum and pedagogy, physical and social environments, its partnerships and community connections. The second strategy – applied in conjunction with the first – is the use of action research to investigate the early childhood setting and to create the desired changes. The third strategy is the adoption of systems thinking as a way of leveraging support and momentum for change so that education for sustainability goes beyond the initiatives of individual teachers and centres, and becomes a systems-wide imperative.

Nitrogen fertilizer rate management as a nitrous oxide mitigation strategy: Development of a nitrous oxide emission reduction protocol (NERP)

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG). More than 50% of the global anthropogenic N2O flux is attributable to emissions from soil, primarily due to large fertilizer nitrogen (N) applications to corn and other non-leguminous crops. Quantification of the trade–offs between N2O emissions, fertilizer N rate, and crop yield is an essential requirement for informing management strategies aiming to reduce the agricultural sector GHG burden, without compromising productivity and producer livelihood. There is currently great interest in developing and implementing agricultural GHG reduction offset projects for inclusion within carbon offset markets. Nitrous oxide, with a global warming potential (GWP) of 298, is a major target for these endeavours due to the high payback associated with its emission prevention. In this paper we use robust quantitative relationships between fertilizer N rate and N2O emissions, along with a recently developed approach for determining economically profitable N rates for optimized crop yield, to propose a simple, transparent, and robust N2O emission reduction protocol (NERP) for generating agricultural GHG emission reduction credits. This NERP has the advantage of providing an economic and environmental incentive for producers and other stakeholders, necessary requirements in the implementation of agricultural offset projects.

Modeling, stability analysis and control of microgrid

With the increase in the level of global warming, renewable energy based distributed generators (DGs) will increasingly play a dominant role in electricity production. Distributed generation based on solar energy (photovoltaic and solar thermal), wind, biomass, mini-hydro along with use of fuel cells and micro turbines will gain considerable momentum in the near future. A microgrid consists of clusters of load and distributed generators that operate as a single controllable system. The interconnection of the DG to the utility/grid through power electronic converters has raised concern about safe operation and protection of the equipments. Many innovative control techniques have been used for enhancing the stability of microgrid as for proper load sharing. The most common method is the use of droop characteristics for decentralized load sharing. Parallel converters have been controlled to deliver desired real power (and reactive power) to the system. Local signals are used as feedback to control converters, since in a real system, the distance between the converters may make the inter-communication impractical. The real and reactive power sharing can be achieved by controlling two independent quantities, frequency and fundamental voltage magnitude. In this thesis, an angle droop controller is proposed to share power amongst converter interfaced DGs in a microgrid. As the angle of the output voltage can be changed instantaneously in a voltage source converter (VSC), controlling the angle to control the real power is always beneficial for quick attainment of steady state. Thus in converter based DGs, load sharing can be performed by drooping the converter output voltage magnitude and its angle instead of frequency. The angle control results in much lesser frequency variation compared to that with frequency droop. An enhanced frequency droop controller is proposed for better dynamic response and smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes of operation. A modular controller structure with modified control loop is proposed for better load sharing between the parallel connected converters in a distributed generation system. Moreover, a method for smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes is proposed. Power quality enhanced operation of a microgrid in presence of unbalanced and non-linear loads is also addressed in which the DGs act as compensators. The compensator can perform load balancing, harmonic compensation and reactive power control while supplying real power to the grid A frequency and voltage isolation technique between microgrid and utility is proposed by using a back-to-back converter. As utility and microgrid are totally isolated, the voltage or frequency fluctuations in the utility side do not affect the microgrid loads and vice versa. Another advantage of this scheme is that a bidirectional regulated power flow can be achieved by the back-to-back converter structure. For accurate load sharing, the droop gains have to be high, which has the potential of making the system unstable. Therefore the choice of droop gains is often a tradeoff between power sharing and stability. To improve this situation, a supplementary droop controller is proposed. A small signal model of the system is developed, based on which the parameters of the supplementary controller are designed. Two methods are proposed for load sharing in an autonomous microgrid in rural network with high R/X ratio lines. The first method proposes power sharing without any communication between the DGs. The feedback quantities and the gain matrixes are transformed with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ratio. The second method involves minimal communication among the DGs. The converter output voltage angle reference is modified based on the active and reactive power flow in the line connected at point of common coupling (PCC). It is shown that a more economical and proper power sharing solution is possible with the web based communication of the power flow quantities. All the proposed methods are verified through PSCAD simulations. The converters are modeled with IGBT switches and anti parallel diodes with associated snubber circuits. All the rotating machines are modeled in detail including their dynamics.

Nitrogen pools and fluxes in grassland soils sequestering carbon

Carbon sequestration in agricultural, forest, and grassland soils has been promoted as a means by which substantial amounts of CO2 may be removed from the atmosphere, but few studies have evaluated the associated impacts on changes in soil N or net global warming potential (GWP). The purpose of this research was to ( 1) review the literature to examine how changes in grassland management that affect soil C also impact soil N, ( 2) assess the impact of different types of grassland management on changes in soil N and rates of change, and (3) evaluate changes in N2O fluxes from differently managed grassland ecosystems to assess net impacts on GWP. Soil C and N stocks either both increased or both decreased for most studies. Soil C and N sequestration were tightly linked, resulting in little change in C: N ratios with changes in management. Within grazing treatments N2O made a minor contribution to GWP (0.1-4%), but increases in N2O fluxes offset significant portions of C sequestration gains due to fertilization (10-125%) and conversion (average = 27%). Results from this work demonstrate that even when improved management practices result in considerable rates of C and N sequestration, changes in N2O fluxes can offset a substantial portion of gains by C sequestration. Even for cases in which C sequestration rates are not entirely offset by increases in N2O fluxes, small increases in N2O fluxes can substantially reduce C sequestration benefits. Conversely, reduction of N2O fluxes in grassland soils brought about by changes in management represents an opportunity to reduce the contribution of grasslands to net greenhouse gas forcing.

Advanced Gen-1, 2 and 3 biofuels research in Australia - Fuelling advanced biofuels training for international scientists

Flinders University and Queensland University of Technology, biofuels research interests cover a broad range of activities. Both institutions are seeking to overcome the twin evils of "peak oil" (Hubbert 1949 & 1956) and "global warming" (IPPC 2007, Stern 2006, Alison 2010), through development of Generation 1, 2 and 3 (Gen-1, 2 & 3) biofuels (Clarke 2008, Clarke 2010). This includes development of parallel Chemical Biorefinery, value-added, co-product chemical technologies, which can underpin the commercial viability of the biofuel industry. Whilst there is a focused effort to develop Gen-2 & 3 biofuels, thus avoiding the socially unacceptable use of food based Gen-1 biofuels, it must also be recognized that as yet, no country in the world has produced sustainable Gen-2 & 3 biofuel on a commercial basis. For example, in 2008 the United States used 38 billion litres (3.5% of total fuel use) of Gen-1 biofuel; in 2009/2010 this will be 47.5 billion litres (4.5% of fuel use) and in 2018 this has been estimated to rise to 96 billion litres (9% of total US fuel use). Brazil in 2008 produced 24.5 billion litres of ethanol, representing 37.3% of the world’s ethanol use for fuel and Europe, in 2008, produced 11.7 billion litres of biofuel (primarily as biodiesel). Compare this to Australia’s miserly biofuel production in 2008/2009 of 180 million litres of ethanol and 75 million litres of biodiesel, which is 0.4% of our fuel consumption! (Clarke, Graiver and Habibie 2010) To assist in the development of better biofuels technologies in the Asian developing regions the Australian Government recently awarded the Materials & BioEnergy Group from Flinders University, in partnership with the Queensland University of Technology, an Australian Leadership Award (ALA) Biofuel Fellowship program to train scientists from Indonesia and India about all facets of advanced biofuel technology.

Green transport infrastructure: from motorways to bikeways

In an age when escalating fuel prices, global warming and world resource depletion are of great concern, sustainable transport practices promise to define a new way of mobility into the future. With its comparatively minimal negative environmental impacts, non reliance on fuels and positive health effects, the simple bicycle ofers significant benefits to humankind. These benefits are evident worldwide where bicycles are successfully endorsed through improved infrastructure, supporting policies, public education and management. In Australia, the national, state and locall governments are introducing measures to improve and support green transport. This is necessary as current bicycle infrastructure is not always sufficient and the longstanding conflict with motorized transport still exists. The aim for the future is to implement sustainable hard and soft bicycle infrastructure globally; the challenges of such a task can be illustrated by the city of Brisbane, Australia.

Influence of historic land use change on the biosphere-atmosphere-exchange of C and N trace gases in the humid, subtropical region of Queensland

Increases in atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) due to human activities have been linked to climate change. GHG emissions from land use change and agriculture have been identified as significant contributors to both Australia’s and the global GHG budget. This is expected to increase over the coming decades as rates of agriculture intensification and land use change accelerate to support population growth and food production. Limited data exists on CO2, CH4 and N2O trace gas fluxes from subtropical or tropical soils and land uses. To develop effective mitigation strategies a full global warming potential (GWP) accounting methodology is required that includes emissions of the three primary greenhouse gases. Mitigation strategies that focus on one gas only can inadvertently increase emissions of another. For this reason, detailed inventories of GHGs from soils and vegetation under individual land uses are urgently required for subtropical Australia. This study aimed to quantify GHG emissions over two consecutive years from three major land uses; a well-established, unfertilized subtropical grass-legume pasture, a 30 year (lychee) orchard and a remnant subtropical Gallery rainforest, all located near Mooloolah, Queensland. GHG fluxes were measured using a combination of high resolution automated sampling, coarser spatial manual sampling and laboratory incubations. Comparison between the land uses revealed that land use change can have a substantial impact on the GWP on a landscape long after the deforestation event. The conversion of rainforest to agricultural land resulted in as much as a 17 fold increase in GWP, from 251 kg CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 in the rainforest to 889 kg CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 in the pasture to 2538 kg CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 in the lychee plantation. This increase resulted from altered N cycling and a reduction in the aerobic capacity of the soil in the pasture and lychee systems, enhancing denitrification and nitrification events, and reducing atmospheric CH4 uptake in the soil. High infiltration, drainage and subsequent soil aeration under the rainforest limited N2O loss, as well as promoting CH4 uptake of 11.2 g CH4-C ha-1 day-1. This was among the highest reported for rainforest systems, indicating that aerated subtropical rainforests can act as substantial sink of CH4. Interannual climatic variation resulted in significantly higher N2O emission from the pasture during 2008 (5.7 g N2O-N ha day) compared to 2007 (3.9 g N2O-N ha day), despite receiving nearly 500 mm less rainfall. Nitrous oxide emissions from the pasture were highest during the summer months and were highly episodic, related more to the magnitude and distribution of rain events rather than soil moisture alone. Mean N2O emissions from the lychee plantation increased from an average of 4.0 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1, to 19.8 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1 following a split application of N fertilizer (560 kg N ha-1, equivalent to 1 kg N tree-1). The timing of the split application was found to be critical to N2O emissions, with over twice as much lost following an application in spring (emission factor (EF): 1.79%) compared to autumn (EF: 0.91%). This was attributed to the hot and moist climatic conditions and a reduction in plant N uptake during the spring creating conditions conducive to N2O loss. These findings demonstrate that land use change in subtropical Australia can be a significant source of GHGs. Moreover, the study shows that modifying the timing of fertilizer application can be an efficient way of reducing GHG emissions from subtropical horticulture.

Flower animals

The coral reefs around the world may be likened to canaries down the mineshaft of global warming. These sensitive plant-like animals have evolved for life in tropical seas. Their needs are quite specific – not too cold, not too hot. A rise of as little as one degree Celsius is enough to cause some bleaching of these colourful jewels of the sea. Many climate models indicate we can expect sea temperature increases of between two and six degrees Celsius. Research - such as that detailed in a 2004 report by the University of Queensland’s Centre for Marine Studies – indicates that by the year 2050 most of the worlds major reef systems will be dead. Many of us have heard this kind of information, but it remains difficult to comprehend. It’s almost impossible to imagine the death of the Great Barrier Reef. Some six to nine thousand years old and visible from space, it is the world’s largest structure created by living organisms. Yet whilst it is hard to believe, this gentle, sensitive giant is at grave risk because it cannot adapt quickly enough to the changes in the environment. This cluster of fluffy felt brain coral sculptures are connected in real time to temperature data collected by monitoring stations within the Great Barrier Reef, that form part of the Australian Institute of Marine Science’s Great Barrier Reed Ocean Observing System. These corals display illumination patterns showing changes in sea temperature at Heron Reef, one of the 2,900 reefs that comprise the Great Barrier Reef. Their spectrum of colour ranges from cool hues, through warm tones to bright white when temperatures exceed those that tropical corals are able to tolerate over sustained periods. The Flower Animals also blush in colour and make sound when people come within close proximity. In a reef, fishes and other creatures generate significant amounts of sound. These cacophonies are considered an indicator of reef health, and are used by reef fish to determine where they can best live and forage.

Solar energy : utilization in building operations

In the face of increasing concern over global warming and climate change, interest in the utilizzation of solar energy for building operations is rapidly growing. In this entry, the importance of using renewable energy in building operations is first introduced. This is followed by a general overview on the energy from the sun and the methods to utilize solar energy. Possible applications of solar energy in building operations are then discussed, which include the use of solar energy in the forms of daylighting, hot water heating, space heating and cooling, and building-integrated photovoltaics.

Palaeoecology of the Mount Etna bat fauna, coastal Eastern Queensland

Global warming is already threatening many animal and plant communities worldwide, however, the effect of climate change on bat populations is poorly known. Understanding the factors influencing the survival of bats is crucial to their conservation, and this cannot be achieved solely by modern ecological studies. Palaeoecological investigations provide a perspective over a much longer temporal scale, allowing the understanding of the dynamic patterns that shaped the distribution of modern taxa. In this study twelve microchiropteran fossil assemblages from Mount Etna, central-eastern Queensland, ranging in age from more than 500,000 years to the present day, were investigated. The aim was to assess the responses of insectivorous bats to Quaternary environmental changes, including climatic fluctuations and recent anthropogenic impacts. In particular, this investigation focussed on the effects of increasing late Pleistocene aridity, the subsequent retraction of rainforest habitat, and the impact of cave mining following European settlement at Mount Etna. A thorough examination of the dental morphology of all available extant Australian bat taxa was conducted in order to identify the fossil taxa prior to their analysis in term of species richness and composition. This detailed odontological work provided new diagnostic dental characters for eighteen species and one genus. It also provided additional useful dental characters for three species and seven genera. This odontological analysis allowed the identification of fifteen fossil bat taxa from the Mount Etna deposits, all being representatives of extant bats, and included ten taxa identified to the species level (i.e., Macroderma gigas, Hipposideros semoni, Rhinolophus megaphyllus, Miniopterus schreibersii, Miniopterus australis, Scoteanax rueppellii, Chalinolobus gouldii, Chalinolobus dwyeri, Chalinolobus nigrogriseus and Vespadelus troughtoni) and five taxa identified to the generic level (i.e., Mormopterus, Taphozous, Nyctophilus, Scotorepens and Vespadelus). Palaeoecological analysis of the fossil taxa revealed that, unlike the non-volant mammal taxa, bats have remained essentially stable in terms of species diversity and community membership between the mid-Pleistocene rainforest habitat and the mesic habitat that occurs today in the region. The single major exception is Hipposideros semoni, which went locally extinct at Mount Etna. Additionally, while intensive mining operations resulted in the abandonment of at least one cave that served as a maternity roost in the recent past, the diversity of the Mount Etna bat fauna has not declined since European colonisation. The overall resilience through time of the bat species discussed herein is perhaps due to their unique ecological, behavioural, and physiological characteristics as well as their ability to fly, which have allowed them to successfully adapt to their changing environment. This study highlights the importance of palaeoecological analyses as a tool to gain an understanding of how bats have responded to environmental change in the past and provides valuable information for the conservation of threatened modern species, such as H. semoni.

Will insulation always bring benefits in energy saving and thermal comfort?

Building insulation is often used to reduce the conduction heat transfer through building envelope. With a higher level of insulation (or a greater R-value), the less the conduction heat would transfer through building envelope. In this paper, using building computer simulation techniques, the effects of building insulation levels on the thermal and energy performance of a sample air-conditioned office building in Australia are studied. It is found that depending on the types of buildings and the climates of buildings located, increasing the level of building insulation will not always bring benefits in energy saving and thermal comfort, particularly for internal-load dominated office buildings located in temperate/tropical climates. The possible implication of building insulation in face of global warming has also been examined. Compared with the influence of insulation on building thermal performance, the influence on building energy use is relatively small.

Towards automated and in-situ, near-real time 3-D reconstruction of coral reef environments

Coral reefs are biologically complex ecosystems that support a wide variety of marine organisms. These are fragile communities under enormous threat from natural and human-based influences. Properly assessing and measuring the growth and health of reefs is essential to understanding impacts of ocean acidification, coastal urbanisation and global warming. In this paper, we present an innovative 3-D reconstruction technique based on visual imagery as a non-intrusive, repeatable, in situ method for estimating physical parameters, such as surface area and volume for efficient assessment of long-term variability. The reconstruction algorithms are presented, and benchmarked using an existing data set. We validate the technique underwater, utilising a commercial-off-the-shelf camera and a piece of staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis. The resulting reconstruction is compared with a laser scan of the coral piece for assessment and validation. The comparison shows that 77% of the pixels in the reconstruction are within 0.3 mm of the ground truth laser scan. Reconstruction results from an unknown video camera are also presented as a segue to future applications of this research.

Frontiers of science

‘Everybody is science conscious these days’ – so started the inaugural week of Frontiers of Science, a self described ‘intelligently presented and attractively drawn’ science-based comic strip published in the Sydney Morning Herald from 1961 to 1982 and ultimately syndicated to daily newspapers around the world. An archive of the first 200 Frontiers of Science comic strips (1961−65) has been made freely available online through an initiative of the University of Sydney Library. While the 1960s public interest in evolution, space exploration, and the Cold War have given way to the twenty-first century concerns about global warming, genetic engineering, and alternative energy sources, it is fair to say that everybody is still science conscious. Frontiers of Science provides an interesting and nostalgic insight into 1960s popular science through an unusual mode of dissemination.