Impacto de melhorias em infraestrutura de transportes sobre variáveis econômicas no Brasil: uma abordagem com o modelo GTAP

Neste Trabalho, modelamos a redução de custos de transportes decorrentes de hipotéticas melhorias na qualidade da infraestrutura de transportes terrestres da economia brasileira. A liberação de recursos gerada por essas melhorias foram traduzidas, em nosso modelo, como ganhos de produtividade para dez setores selecionados. A escolha dessa modelagem possui a vantagem de deixar que os agentes econômicos decidam o que fazer após o choque na produtividade total dos fatores, sem que estes recursos estejam comprometidos com quaisquer incentivos de natureza específica, como seria o caso de um subsídio à compra de determinada matéria-prima, por exemplo. O comportamento do setor, em consequência da realização do experimento, fica condicionado às hipóteses iniciais do modelo referentes aos parâmetros de decisão da firma, das famílias e do governo. Para os cálculos dos impactos sobre a produtividade, utilizamos as matrizes de insumoproduto estimadas por Martinez(2013). Os resultados mostraram ganhos expressivos para o produto interno bruto, a Balança Comercial e o volume de produção setorial, dentre outras variáveis analisadas.

Bayesian approach to signal modelling

In this paper, an introduction to Bayesian methods in signal processing will be given. The paper starts by considering the important issues of model selection and parameter estimation and derives analytic expressions for the model probabilities of two simple models. The idea of marginal estimation of certain model parameter is then introduced and expressions are derived for the marginal probability densities for frequencies in white Gaussian noise and a Bayesian approach to general changepoint analysis is given. Numerical integration methods are introduced based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques and the Gibbs sampler in particular.

The Bayesian Approach to Signal Modelling

In this paper, an introduction to Bayesian methods in signal processing will be given. The paper starts by considering the important issues of model selection and parameter estimation and derives analytic expressions for the model probabilities of two simple models. The idea of marginal estimation of certain model parameter is then introduced and expressions are derived for the marginal probabilitiy densities for frequencies in white Gaussian noise and a Bayesian approach to general changepoint analysis is given. Numerical integration methods are introduced based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques and the Gibbs sampler in particular.

Oscillations in a decentralized economic network

The study of exchange markets dates back to LeonWalras's general equilibrium theory. Since then the economic market has been studied for its' equilibrium properties, fairness of allocations of private and public goods, and even the psychological incentives of participants. This paper studies the dynamics of an exchange economy built on a network of markets where consumers trade with suppliers to optimize utility. Viewing the market in as a decentralized network we study the system from the usual control theory point of view, evaluating the system's dynamic performance, stability and robustness. It is shown that certain consumer demand dynamics can lead to oscillations while others can converge to optimal allocations. © 2011 IFAC.

Kelvin-Helmholtz-like instabilities in turbulent flows over complex surfaces

Riblets are small surface protrusions aligned with the flow direction, which confer an anisotropic roughness to the surface [6]. We have recently reported that the transitional-roughness effect in riblets, which limits their performance, is due to a Kelvin–Helmholtz-like instability of the overlying mean flow [7]. According to our DNSs, the instability sets on as the Reynolds number based on the roughness size of the riblets increases, and coherent, elongated spanwise vortices begin to develop immediately above the riblet tips, causing the degradation of the drag-reduction effect. This is a very novel concept, since prior studies had proposed that the degradation was due to the interaction of riblets with the flow as independent units, either to the lodging of quasi-streamwise vortices in the surface grooves [2] or to the shedding of secondary streamwise vorticity at the riblet peaks [9]. We have proposed an approximate inviscid analysis for the instability, in which the presence of riblets is modelled through an average boundary condition for an overlying, spanwise-independent mean flow. This simplification lacks the accuracy of an exact analysis [4], but in turn applies to riblet surfaces in general. Our analysis succeeds in predicting the riblet size for the onset of the instability, while qualitatively reproducing the wavelengths and shapes of the spanwise structures observed in the DNSs. The analysis also connects the observations with the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability of mixing layers. The fundamental riblet length scale for the onset of the instability is a ‘penetration length,’ which reflects how easily the perturbation flow moves through the riblet grooves. This result is in excellent agreement with the available experimental evidence, and has enabled the identification of the key geometric parameters to delay the breakdown. Although the appearance of elongated spanwise vortices was unexpected in the case of riblets, similar phenomena had already been observed over other rough [3], porous [1] and permeable [11] surfaces, as well as over plant [5,14] and urban [12] canopies, both in the transitional and in the fully-rough regimes. However, the theoretical analyses that support the connection of these observations with the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability are somewhat scarce [7, 11, 13]. It has been recently proposed that Kelvin–Helmholtz-like instabilities are a dominant feature common to “obstructed” shear flows [8]. It is interesting that the instability does not require an inflection point to develop, as is often claimed in the literature. The Kelvin-Helmholtz rollers are rather triggered by the apparent wall-normal-transpiration ability of the flow at the plane immediately above the obstructing elements [7,11]. Although both conditions are generally complementary, if wall-normal transpiration is not present the spanwise vortices may not develop, even if an inflection point exists within the roughness [10]. REFERENCES [1] Breugem, W. P., Boersma, B. J. & Uittenbogaard, R. E. 2006 J. Fluid Mech. 562, 35–72. [2] Choi, H., Moin, P. & Kim, J. 1993 J. Fluid Mech. 255, 503–539. [3] Coceal, O., Dobre, A., Thomas, T. G. & Belcher, S. E. 2007 J. Fluid Mech. 589, 375–409. [4] Ehrenstein, U. 2009 Phys. Fluids 8, 3194–3196. [5] Finnigan, J. 2000 Ann. Rev. Fluid Mech. 32, 519–571. [6] Garcia-Mayoral, R. & Jimenez, J. 2011 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 1412–1427. [7] Garcia-Mayoral, R. & Jimenez, J. 2011 J. Fluid Mech. doi: 10.1017/jfm.2011.114. [8] Ghisalberti, M. 2009 J. Fluid Mech. 641, 51–61. [9] Goldstein, D. B. & Tuan, T. C. 1998 J. Fluid Mech. 363, 115–151. [10] Hahn, S., Je, J. & Choi, H. 2002 J. Fluid Mech. 450, 259–285. [11] Jimenez, J., Uhlman, M., Pinelli, A. & G., K. 2001 J. Fluid Mech. 442, 89–117. [12] Letzel, M. O., Krane, M. & Raasch, S. 2008 Atmos. Environ. 42, 8770–8784. [13] Py, C., de Langre, E. & Moulia, B. 2006 J. Fluid Mech. 568, 425–449. [14] Raupach, M. R., Finnigan, J. & Brunet, Y. 1996 Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 78, 351–382.

Cloning and sequencing of the growth hormone gene of large yellow croaker and its phylogenetic significance

Using conserved primers and the PCR reaction, the growth hormone (GH) gene and the 3'-UTR of the large yellow croaker (Pseudosciaena crocea) were amplified and sequenced. The gene structure was analyzed and compared to the GH genes of 5 other percoid fish downloaded from Genbank. Also the GH gene of the large yellow croaker and the genes from 14 Percoidei and 2 Labroidei species were aligned using Clustal X. A matrix of 564 bp was used to construct the phylogenetic tree using maximum parsimony and neighbor-joining methods. Phylogenetic trees by the two methods are identical in most of the clades with high bootstrap support. The results are also identical to those from morphological data. In general, this analysis does not support the monophyly of the families Centropomidae and Carangidae. But our GH gene tree indicates that the representative species of the families Sparidae and Sciaenidae are a monophyletic group.

Computer Recognition of Prismatic Solids

An investigation is made into the problem of constructing a model of the appearance to an optical input device of scenes consisting of plane-faced geometric solids. The goal is to study algorithms which find the real straight edges in the scenes, taking into account smooth variations in intensity over faces of the solids, blurring of edges and noise. A general mathematical analysis is made of optimal methods for identifying the edge lines in figures, given a raster of intensities covering the entire field of view. There is given in addition a suboptimal statistical decision procedure, based on the model, for the identification of a line within a narrow band on the field of view given an array of intensities from within the band. A computer program has been written and extensively tested which implements this procedure and extracts lines from real scenes. Other programs were written which judge the completeness of extracted sets of lines, and propose and test for additional lines which had escaped initial detection. The performance of these programs is discussed in relation to the theory derived from the model, and with regard to their use of global information in detecting and proposing lines.

Equilibria and Dynamics of a Neural Network Model for Opponent Muscle Control

One of the advantages of biological skeleto-motor systems is the opponent muscle design, which in principle makes it possible to achieve facile independent control of joint angle and joint stiffness. Prior analysis of equilibrium states of a biologically-based neural network for opponent muscle control, the FLETE model, revealed that such independent control requires specialized interneuronal circuitry to efficiently coordinate the opponent force generators. In this chapter, we refine the FLETE circuit variables specification and update the equilibrium analysis. We also incorporate additional neuronal circuitry that ensures efficient opponent force generation and velocity regulation during movement.

Modeling economy-wide vs sectoral climate policies using combined aggregate-sectoral models

Economic analyses of climate change policies frequently focus on reductions of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions via market-based, economy-wide policies. The current course of environment and energy policy debate in the United States, however, suggests an alternative outcome: sector-based and/or inefficiently designed policies. This paper uses a collection of specialized, sector-based models in conjunction with a computable general equilibrium model of the economy to examine and compare these policies at an aggregate level. We examine the relative cost of different policies designed to achieve the same quantity of emission reductions. We find that excluding a limited number of sectors from an economy-wide policy does not significantly raise costs. Focusing policy solely on the electricity and transportation sectors doubles costs, however, and using non-market policies can raise cost by a factor of ten. These results are driven in part by, and are sensitive to, our modeling of pre-existing tax distortions. Copyright © 2006 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Investigation of DNA polymorphisms in SMAD genes for genetic predisposition to diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus

Aims/hypothesis: SMAD proteins are involved in multiple signalling pathways and are key modulators of gene expression. We hypothesised that genetic variation in selected SMAD genes contributes to susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy. Methods: We selected 13 haplotype tag (ht) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 67 variants identified by resequencing the SMAD2 and SMAD3 genes. For SMAD1, SMAD4 and SMAD5 genes, genotype data were downloaded for 217 SNPs from Phase II of the International HapMap project. Of these, 85 SNPs met our inclusion criteria, resulting in the selection of 13 tag SNPs for further investigation. A case-control approach was employed, using 267 nephropathic patients and 442 controls with type 1 diabetes from Ireland. Two further populations (totalling 1,407 patients, 2,238 controls) were genotyped to validate initial findings. Genotyping was conducted using iPLEX, TaqMan and gel electrophoresis.
Results: The distribution of genotypes was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Analysis by the ? 2 test of genotype and allele frequencies in patients versus controls in the Irish population (n?=?709) revealed evidence for the association of one allele at 5% level of significance (rs10515478, p uncorrected?=?0.006; p corrected?=?0.04). This finding represents a relatively small difference in allele frequency of 6.4% in the patient group compared with 10.7% in the control group; this difference was not supported in subsequent investigations using DNA from European individuals with similar phenotypic characteristics.
Conclusions/interpretation: We selected an appropriate subset of variants for the investigation of common genetic risk factors and assessed SMAD1 to SMAD5 genes for association with diabetic nephropathy. We conclude that common polymorphisms in these genes do not strongly influence genetic susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy in white individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

How the ship of fools was ship-wrecked - The Irish crisis and response

For a decade and half the Irish economy was the poster-boy of Europe. With substantial growth rates, an open economy, flexible labour markets and low levels of taxation, Ireland was seen as evidence of the success of neoliberal policies. Yet in the matter of a few short years Ireland has turned into a one of the peripheral black-holes (along with Greece and Portugal) that are threatening to bring down the whole Eurozone project. Given this context the paper will address two key questions. Firstly how did the much eulogised Celtic Tiger fall so far and so fast? And, secondly, what has been the government’s response to the fall and crash of the Irish economy? These two questions will be addressed through both a general historical analysis of the developments of Irish society up to the crash in 2008 and then the responses to it. Secondly by an analysis of two specific elements of that development; namely the much discussed low corporation tax rate and the failure of social housing to deliver decent affordable homes for those at the bottom of society. The third element is a review of the banking and sovereign debt crisis that led to the IMF/EU deal in November 2010 and a brief outlining of its implications for public finances, especially the question of default. The paper concludes by placing the Irish crisis in a global context.

Joint complex diversity coding and channel coding over space, time and frequency

This study provides a general diversity analysis for joint complex diversity coding (CDC) and channel coding-based space-time-frequency codeing is provided. The mapping designs from channel coding to CDC are crucial for efficient exploitation of the diversity potential. This study provides and proves a sufficient condition of full diversity construction with joint three-dimensional CDC and channel coding, bit-interleaved coded complex diversity coding and symbol-interleaved coded complex diversity coding. Both non-iterative and iterative detections of joint channel code and CDC transmission are investigated. The proposed minimum mean-square error-based iterative soft decoding achieves the performance of the soft sphere decoding with reduced complexity.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.

Organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts in recent sediments from the Guadiana river estuary, South-East Portugal

Dissertação de Mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente, Universidade do Algarve, 2007

A fair day's wage? Perceptions of public sector pay

There is a scarcity of evidence pertaining to the general public's perception of public sector pay. Hence, in the present study, 161 women and 149 men were asked to estimate the wages 35 public sector professions should receive annually in the fictitious nation of Maldoria, based on a comparison value of an annual income of T10,000 for general practitioners. Analysis showed that only pilots were given a higher annual income than general practitioners; miners and local government workers were also provided with relatively high annual incomes. By contrast, newscasters were provided with the lowest annual income. Participants' sex did not affect these evaluations, and other demographic variables and public sector-related information of the participants were poor predictors of their evaluations. The implications of this research on public attitudes toward wage determination are discussed, and avenues for further research highlighted.