The blended approach to real estate allocations: performance implications of combining an exposure to German Spezialfonds with Global Listed Real Estate Securities

This paper seeks to increase the understanding of the performance implications for investors who choose to combine an unlisted real estate portfolio (in this case German Spezialfonds) with a (global) listed real estate element. We call this a “blended” approach to real estate allocations. For the avoidance of doubt, in this paper we are dealing purely with real estate equity (listed and unlisted) allocations, and do not incorporate real estate debt (listed or unlisted) or direct property into the process. A previous paper (Moss and Farrelly 2014) showed the benefits of the blended approach as it applied to UK Defined Contribution Pension Schemes. The catalyst for this paper has been the recent attention focused on German pension fund allocations, which have a relatively low (real estate) equity content, and a high bond content. We have used the MSCI Spezialfonds Index as a proxy for domestic German institutional real estate allocations, and the EPRA Global Developed Index as a proxy for a global listed real estate allocation. We also examine whether a rules based trading strategy, in this case Trend Following, can improve the risk adjusted returns above those of a simple buy and hold strategy for our sample period 2004-2015. Our findings are that by blending a 30% global listed portfolio with a 70% allocation (as opposed to a typical 100% weighting) to Spezialfonds, the real estate allocation returns increase from 2.88% p.a. to 5.42% pa. Volatility increases, but only to 6.53%., but there is a noticeable impact on maximum drawdown which increases to 19.4%. By using a Trend Following strategy raw returns are improved from 2.88% to 6.94% p.a. , The Sharpe Ratio increases from 1.05 to 1.49 and the Maximum Drawdown ratio is now only 1.83% compared to 19.4% using a buy and hold strategy . Finally, adding this (9%) real estate allocation to a mixed asset portfolio allocation typical for German pension funds there is an improvement in both the raw return (from 7.66% to 8.28%) and the Sharpe Ratio (from 0.91 to 0.98).

Using computers to teach people with intellectual disabilities to perform some of the tasks used within cognitive behavioural therapy: a randomised experiment

Aims Training has been shown to improve the ability of people with intellectual disabilities (IDs) to perform some cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) tasks. This study used a computerised training paradigm with the aim of improving the ability of people with IDs to: a) discriminate between behaviours, thoughts and feelings, and b) link situations, thoughts and feelings. Methods Fifty-five people with mild-to-moderate IDs were randomly assigned to a training or attention-control condition in a single-blind mixed experimental design. Computerised tasks assessed the participants’ skills in: (a) discriminating between behaviours, thoughts and feelings (separately and pooled together), and (b) cognitive mediation by selecting appropriate emotions as consequences to given thoughts, and appropriate thoughts as mediators of given emotions. Results Training significantly improved ability to discriminate between behaviours, thoughts and feelings pooled together, compared to the attention-control condition, even when controlling for baseline scores and IQ. Large within-group improvements in the ability to identify behaviours and feelings were observed for the training condition, but not the attention-control group. There were no significant between-group differences in ability to identify thoughts, or on cognitive mediation skills. Conclusions A single session of computerised training can improve the ability of people with IDs to understand and practise CBT tasks relating to behaviours and feelings. There is potential for computerised training to be used as a “primer” for CBT with people with IDs to improve engagement and outcomes, but further development on a specific computerised cognitive mediation task is needed.

Efficient solutions to factored MDPs with imprecise transition probabilities

When modeling real-world decision-theoretic planning problems in the Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework, it is often impossible to obtain a completely accurate estimate of transition probabilities. For example, natural uncertainty arises in the transition specification due to elicitation of MOP transition models from an expert or estimation from data, or non-stationary transition distributions arising from insufficient state knowledge. In the interest of obtaining the most robust policy under transition uncertainty, the Markov Decision Process with Imprecise Transition Probabilities (MDP-IPs) has been introduced to model such scenarios. Unfortunately, while various solution algorithms exist for MDP-IPs, they often require external calls to optimization routines and thus can be extremely time-consuming in practice. To address this deficiency, we introduce the factored MDP-IP and propose efficient dynamic programming methods to exploit its structure. Noting that the key computational bottleneck in the solution of factored MDP-IPs is the need to repeatedly solve nonlinear constrained optimization problems, we show how to target approximation techniques to drastically reduce the computational overhead of the nonlinear solver while producing bounded, approximately optimal solutions. Our results show up to two orders of magnitude speedup in comparison to traditional ""flat"" dynamic programming approaches and up to an order of magnitude speedup over the extension of factored MDP approximate value iteration techniques to MDP-IPs while producing the lowest error of any approximation algorithm evaluated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Connecting Scientific Data to Scientific Experiments with Provenance

As scientific workflows and the data they operate on, grow in size and complexity, the task of defining how those workflows should execute (which resources to use, where the resources must be in readiness for processing etc.) becomes proportionally more difficult. While "workflow compilers", such as Pegasus, reduce this burden, a further problem arises: since specifying details of execution is now automatic, a workflow's results are harder to interpret, as they are partly due to specifics of execution. By automating steps between the experiment design and its results, we lose the connection between them, hindering interpretation of results. To reconnect the scientific data with the original experiment, we argue that scientists should have access to the full provenance of their data, including not only parameters, inputs and intermediary data, but also the abstract experiment, refined into a concrete execution by the "workflow compiler". In this paper, we describe preliminary work on adapting Pegasus to capture the process of workflow refinement in the PASOA provenance system.

Using an animated pedagogical agent to interact affectively with the student

This work proposes an animated pedagogical agent that has the role of providing emotional support to the student: motivating and encouraging him, making him believe in his self-ability, and promoting a positive mood in him, which fosters learning. This careful support of the agent, its affective tactics, is expressed through emotional behaviour and encouragement messages of the lifelike character. Due to human social tendency of anthropomorphising software, we believe that a software agent can accomplish this affective role. In order to choose the adequate affective tactics, the agent should also know the student’s emotions. The proposed agent recognises the student’s emotions: joy/distress, satisfaction/disappointment, anger/gratitude, and shame, from the student’s observable behaviour, i. e. his actions in the interface of the educational system. The inference of emotions is psychologically grounded on the cognitive theory of emotions. More specifically, we use the OCC model which is based on the cognitive approach of emotion and can be computationally implemented. Due to the dynamic nature of the student’s affective information, we adopted a BDI approach to implement the affective user model and the affective diagnosis. Besides, in our work we profit from the reasoning capacity of the BDI approach in order for the agent to deduce the student’s appraisal, which allows it to infer the student’s emotions. As a case study, the proposed agent is implemented as the Mediating Agent of MACES: an educational collaborative environment modelled as a multi-agent system and pedagogically based on the sociocultural theory of Vygotsky.

Morphological and functional evaluation of distal esophagus of rabbits submitted to esophageal infusion with caustic soda

A ingestão de substâncias cáusticas constitui importante situação de emergência, tendo em vista a gravidade de suas seqüelas. OBJETIVO: Estudar as alterações morfológicas e funcionais do esôfago de coelhos submetidos à infusão esofágica com soda cáustica (NaOH). MÉTODOS: 88 coelhos foram divididos em 4 grupos: G1 (n=22) foi submetido à infusão esofágica com água destilada; G2, G3 e G4 foram submetidos a infusão esofágica com NaOH a 2%, 4% e 6%, respectivamente. Alterações morfológicas foram estudadas em 12 animais de cada grupo e as alterações manométricas, nos 10 animais restantes. Foram feitas análises do esfíncter inferior do esôfago (EIE), número e amplitude das contrações no terço distal do esôfago. Estes estudos foram realizados antes (momento 1 - M1) e aos 30 minutos, 6 horas e 24 horas após a infusão esofágica (momentos M2, M3 e M4, respectivamente). RESULTADOS: Avaliação macroscópica: G1 - sem alterações; G2 - edema, hiperemia e descamação; G3 - aumento do calibre do esôfago, úlceras, descamação da mucosa; G4 - lesões semelhantes as do G3, porém mais intensas, áreas de extensa hemorragia. Avaliação funcional: a pressão no EIE foi mais elevada em M2 no grupo 2; o número das contrações no terço distal do esôfago foi menor em G3 e G4, e a amplitude das contrações foi menor em G4. CONCLUSÕES: 1) a infusão esofágica com NaOH constitui excelente modelo experimental de esofagite cáustica no coelho; 2) a infusão esofágica com NaOH causa lesões na parede do esôfago, com gravidade proporcional a concentração da solução; 3) a infusão causou espasmo do EIE em M2 e redução do número e amplitude das contrações no terço distal do esôfago.

Plasma glutathione of HIV+ patients responded positively and differently to dietary supplementation with cysteine or glutamine

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of dietary protein supply on resistance to experimental infections with Haemonchus contortus in Ile de France and Santa Ines lambs

The effect of Haemonchus contortus infection in sheep fed with a moderate and high protein content diet was evaluated in two breeds of sheep. Forty-eight Ile de France and Santa Ines lambs were maintained indoors since birth, in worm-free conditions. The lambs were allocated after weaning in four groups of six animals per breed, which were either infected or remain uninfected and given access to either a moderately or highly metabolizable protein diet. The moderately and highly metabolizable protein diets were calculated to supply 75 and 129 g metabolizable protein per kg of dry matter (MP/kg DM), respectively. The infection consisted of a trickle infection with 300 infective larvae, three times a week, for 12 weeks. Significant differences were observed for mast cell, globule leukocyte and eosinophil counts in the abomasal mucosa of the infected groups compared to the control of both breeds (P < 0.05), regardless of the diet supplied. Significantly higher IgA anti-L5 antibody was detected in the infected Santa Ines groups than in the infected Ile de France groups (P < 0.05). Increased metabolizable protein supply resulted in larger body weight gain and higher packed cell volumes for both breeds (P < 0.05). Both breeds showed an increased ability to withstand the pathophysiological effects of H. contortus infection when given access to the highly metabolizable protein diet. However, increased metabolizable protein supply resulted in reduced worm burdens in Santa Ines lambs but not in the Ile de France lambs (P < 0.05). The present results show that the increase in protein content in growing lamb diets may benefit resistance and resilience to gastrointestinal parasites but that these benefits may vary among breeds. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of antioxidant agents on bond strength of composite to bleached enamel with 38% hydrogen peroxide

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chiral corrections to baryon properties with composite pions

A calculational scheme is developed to evaluate chiral corrections to properties of composite baryons with composite pions. The composite baryons and pions are bound states derived from a microscopic chiral quark model. The model is amenable to standard many-body techniques such as the BCS and random phase approximation formalisms. An effective chiral model involving only hadronic degrees of freedom is derived from the macroscopic quark model by projection onto hadron states. Chiral loops are calculated using the effective hadronic Hamiltonian. A simple microscopic confining interaction is used to illustrate the derivation of the pion-nucleon form factor and the calculation of picnic self-energy corrections to the nucleon and Delta (1232) masses.

Observation of Z decays to four leptons with the CMS detector at the LHC

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Apatite coatings onto titanium surfaces submitted to laser ablation with different energy densities

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)