The First International Workshop on Warning Criteria for Active Slides: technical issues, problems and solutions for managing early warning systems

Early warning systems (EWSs) rely on the capacity to forecast a dangerous event with a certain amount of advance by defining warning criteria on which the safety of the population will depend. Monitoring of landslides is facilitated by new technologies, decreasing prices and easier data processing. At the same time, predicting the onset of a rapid failure or the sudden transition from slow to rapid failure and subsequent collapse, and its consequences is challenging for scientists that must deal with uncertainties and have limited tools to do so. Furthermore, EWS and warning criteria are becoming more and more a subject of concern between technical experts, researchers, stakeholders and decision makers responsible for the activation, enforcement and approval of civil protection actions. EWSs imply also a sharing of responsibilities which is often averted by technical staff, managers of technical offices and governing institutions. We organized the First International Workshop on Warning Criteria for Active Slides (IWWCAS) to promote sharing and networking among members from specialized institutions and relevant experts of EWS. In this paper, we summarize the event to stimulate discussion and collaboration between organizations dealing with the complex task of managing hazard and risk related to active slides.

Non-Markovian Dynamics and the Quantum-To-Classical Transition for Quantum Brownian Motion

In this Thesis I discuss the dynamics of the quantum Brownian motion model in harmonic potential. This paradigmatic model has an exact solution, making it possible to consider also analytically the non-Markovian dynamics. The issues covered in this Thesis are themed around decoherence. First, I consider decoherence as the mediator of quantum-to-classical transition. I examine five different definitions for nonclassicality of quantum states, and show how each definition gives qualitatively different times for the onset of classicality. In particular I have found that all characterizations of nonclassicality, apart from one based on the interference term in the Wigner function, result in a finite, rather than asymptotic, time for the emergence of classicality. Second, I examine the diverse effects which coupling to a non-Markovian, structured reservoir, has on our system. By comparing different types of Ohmic reservoirs, I derive some general conclusions on the role of the reservoir spectrum in both the short-time and the thermalization dynamics. Finally, I apply these results to two schemes for decoherence control. Both of the methods are based on the non-Markovian properties of the dynamics.

Proactive and Preventive Student Welfare Activities in Finnish Preschool and Elementary School: Handling of Transition to Formal Schooling and a National Anti-Bullying Program as Examples

Prerequisites and effects of proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities in Finnish preschool and elementary school were of interest in the present thesis. So far, Finnish student welfare work has mainly focused on interventions and individuals, and the voluminous possibilities to enhance well-being of all students as a part of everyday school work have not been fully exploited. Consequently, in this thesis three goals were set: (1) To present concrete examples of proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities in Finnish basic education; (2) To investigate measurable positive effects of proactive and preventive activities; and (3) To investigate implementation of proactive and preventive activities in ecological contexts. Two prominent phenomena in preschool and elementary school years—transition to formal schooling and school bullying—were chosen as examples of critical situations that are appropriate targets for proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities. Until lately, the procedures concerning both school transitions and school bullying have been rather problem-focused and reactive in nature. Theoretically, we lean on the bioecological model of development by Bronfenbrenner and Morris with concentric micro-, meso-, exo- and macrosystems. Data were drawn from two large-scale research projects, the longitudinal First Steps Study: Interactive Learning in the Child–Parent– Teacher Triangle, and the Evaluation Study of the National Antibullying Program KiVa. In Study I, we found that the academic skills of children from preschool–elementary school pairs that implemented several supportive activities during the preschool year developed more quickly from preschool to Grade 1 compared with the skills of children from pairs that used fewer practices. In Study II, we focused on possible effects of proactive and preventive actions on teachers and found that participation in the KiVa antibullying program influenced teachers‘ self-evaluated competence to tackle bullying. In Studies III and IV, we investigated factors that affect implementation rate of these proactive and preventive actions. In Study III, we found that principal‘s commitment and support for antibullying work has a clear-cut positive effect on implementation adherence of student lessons of the KiVa antibullying program. The more teachers experience support for and commitment to anti-bullying work from their principal, the more they report having covered KiVa student lessons and topics. In Study IV, we wanted to find out why some schools implement several useful and inexpensive transition practices, whereas other schools use only a few of them. We were interested in broadening the scope and looking at local-level (exosystem) qualities, and, in fact, the local-level activities and guidelines, along with teacherreported importance of the transition practices, were the only factors significantly associated with the implementation rate of transition practices between elementary schools and partner preschools. Teacher- and school-level factors available in this study turned out to be mostly not significant. To summarize, the results confirm that school-based promotion and prevention activities may have beneficial effects not only on students but also on teachers. Second, various top-down processes, such as engagement at the level of elementary school principals or local administration may enhance implementation of these beneficial activities. The main message is that when aiming to support the lives of children the primary focus should be on adults. In future, promotion of psychosocial well-being and the intrinsic value of inter- and intrapersonal skills need to be strengthened in the Finnish educational systems. Future research efforts in student welfare and school psychology, as well as focused training for psychologists in educational contexts, should be encouraged in the departments of psychology and education in Finnish universities. Moreover, a specific research centre for school health and well-being should be established.

The Finnish it industries in transition. Defining and Measuring the Finnish Software Product and IT Services Industries by Applying Theoretical Frameworks

The starting point of this study is that the prevailing way to consider the Finnish IT industries and industry information often results in a limited and even skewed picture of the sector. The purpose of the study is to contribute and increase knowledge and understanding of the status, structure and evolution of the Finnish IT industries as well as the Finnish IT vendor field and competition. The focus is on software product and IT services industries which form a crucial part of all ICT industries. This study examines the Finnish IT sector from production (supply) as well as market (demand) perspective. The study is based on empirical information from multiple sources. Three research questions were formulated for the study. The first concerns the status of the Finnish IT industries considered by applying theoretical frameworks. The second research question targets at the basis for the future evolution of the Finnish IT industries and, finally, the third at the ability of the available definitions and indicators to describe the Finnish IT industries and IT markets. Major structural changes like technological changes and related innovations, globalization and new business models are drivers of the evolution of the IT industries. The findings of this study emphasize the significant role of IT services in the Finnish IT sector and in connection to that the ability to combine IT service skills, competences and practices with high level software skills also in the future. According to the study the Finnish IT enterprises and their customers have become increasingly dependent on global ecosystems and platforms, applications and IT services provided by global vendors. As a result, more IT decisions are made outside Finland. In addition, IT companies are facing new competition from other than IT industries bringing into market new substitutes. To respond to the new competition, IT firms seek growth by expanding beyond their traditional markets.. The changing global division of labor accentuates the need for accurate information of the IT sector but, at the same time, also makes it increasingly challenging to acquire the information needed. One of the main contributions of this study is to provide frameworks for describing the Finnish IT sector and its evolution. These frameworks help combine empirical information from various sources and make it easier to concretize the structures, volumes, relationships and interaction of both, the production and market side of the Finnish IT industry. Some frameworks provide tools to analyze the vendor field, competition and the basis for the future evolution of the IT industries. The observations of the study support the argument that static industry definitions and related classifications do not serve the information needs in dynamic industries, such as the IT industries. One of the main messages of this study is to emphasize the importance of understanding the definitions and starting points of different information sources. Simultaneously, in the structure and evolution of Finnish IT industries the number of employees has become a more valid and reliable measure than the revenue based indicators.

Trypanosoma vivax infection dynamics in a cattle herd maintained in a transition area between Pantanal lowlands and highlands of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Trypanosoma vivax outbreaks in beef cattle in the Pantanal region of Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil, causes relevant economical impact due to weight loss, abortion and mortality. Cattle moved from the Pantanal to adjacent areas of this ecosystem for breeding and fattening is a common feature. Therefore an epidemiological study on breeding cows in the transition area between Pantanal lowland and adjacent highlands of Mato Grosso do Sul was performed to determine the T. vivax infection dynamics and outbreak risk. Three experimental groups were formed: Group 1 consisted of cows parasitologically negative by the Woo test and in the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for T. vivax antibody detection (Tv-ELISA-Ab); Group 2 parasitologically negative and positive in the Tv-ELISA-Ab; and in Group 3 cows were parasitologically positive and with positive reactions in the Tv-ELISA-Ab. During 24 months, the cows' dislodgment between the above established groups was monitored by Woo test and Tv-ELISA-Ab exams. The tabanid population was also monitored and the highest number occurred during the rainy season. Although parasitemias were detected only in the first four samplings of the experimental period, the cows could be considered as trypanotolerant, because no clinical signs were observed. Despite the higher T. vivax incidence during the dry season, no disease symptoms were seen. Even though T. vivax epidemiological situation in the herd was characterized as endemic with seasonal variation, the probability of outbreaks was null within the conditions of the study.

Transition management and the sustainable nutrients economy in the Netherlands; positioning paper

In this positioning paper transition management (TM) and the sustainable nutrient economy are addressed. We discuss TM from its scholarly origins in the 1990’s to its implementation as a comprehensive sector-wide policy program on sustainability in The Netherlands during the first decade of the 2000´s. Although the program was innovative and provoked a new approach to environmental policy and governance, the program at large failed to set the right conditions under which sustainable transition take place. Lessons from the Netherlands, both successful and less successful, are addressed in this positioning paper to inform Finnish governmental and knowledge institutes on how (not) to implement TM on environmental issues. When looking at sustainable nutrient economy the paper takes a historical view at how problems with nutrients (especially phosphates) were dealt with in the Netherlands during the post World War II era. This transition did not occur easily. In the agricultural sector environmental policies to prevent nutrient problems were not easily accepted, as large agricultural economic interests were at stake and the sector’s main actors were generally opposed to (radical) environmental transition. Currently, sustainable nutrient economy initiatives are starting to receive attention on the political agenda once again. In 2011 a sector- and chain-wide covenant was signed, showing that sustainable nutrient transition goals get commitment from stakeholders throughout the nutrient chain. We judge that TM provides useful elements that are applicable to Finnish governance modes to support sustainable nutrient economy transition. However, the Finnish government should be careful when implementing TM to prevent making the same mistakes the Dutch government made in previous years.

First record of Reticulocaulis mucosissimus I. A. Abbott (Naccariaceae, Rhodophyta) for the western Atlantic Ocean

Espírito Santo State lies in the transition region (18°-21° S) between the tropical and subtropical marine-algal provinces and is considered the richest area of the Brazilian flora. The subtidal substratum presents extensive areas of rhodoliths associated with a diversified marine biota. A detailed exploration using Scuba diving technique has revealed many little-known and previously unreported taxa that are new to the Brazilian coast. Among the algae recently discovered, Reticulocaulis mucosissimus I. A. Abbott was found at a depth of 25 meters, thus consisting of the second member of the infrequently encountered family Naccariaceae growing in the same region. This work has revealed additional distribution records of this species not yet reported from the western Atlantic. Description of the morphological and reproductive features of the species as well as illustrations and comments are presented.

Transition management in action within the context of nutrient economy

Tämä työ tutkii ja tarkastelee transitio-kokeilua ravinnetaloudessa. Transitio-kokeilu on toimintatutkimusprojekti, joka toteutetaan systeemisen muutoksen ajattelun mukaisesti alhaalta ylöspäin. Ravinnetalous määritetään tarkemmin työn kautta sekä analysoidaan monitaso-perspektiivin näkökulmasta. Ravinnetalous on terminä varsin tuntematon ja tarvitsee enemmän tunnettavuutta laajemman yleisön edessä. Transitio-areenan ja transitio-visioiden kehittäminen ovat työn keskipisteessä, koska ne ovat tärkeimpiä vaiheita transition alkuvaiheessa. Joukko sidosryhmätoimijoita osallistuu transitio areenaan sekä visioiden jatkokehittelyyn. Visio(t) luodaan ensisijaisesti backcasting-menetelmällä, jota myös täydennetään tavanomaisella ennustamisella. Backcasting- menetelmä on osin osallistava ja siinä käytetään ravinteiden planeettarajoja kvantitatiivisina pääperiaatteina, minkä tuloksena myös visiot ovat osin kvantitatiivisia. Transitio areenan kokoaminen ja fasilitointi aiheuttavat hankalia kysymyksiä, jotka tarvitsevat jatko-tutkimusta. Alhaalta-ylöspäin organisoitu transitio-arena houkuttelee niche-toimijoita, mutta epäonnistuu sitouttamaan julkisen vallan toimijoita. Toimintamallin voimasuhteet, politiikka ja transition vakiinnuttaminen tulisivat olla jatko-toimenpiteinä niin tutkimuksessa kuin toiminnassakin.

Preparing students for the transition from college to work /

The purpose of this study was to examine the perceived preparedness of college students for the transition from college to full-time employment. The study was concerned with the interest and rationale behind developing a required Exit Course for college students in order to improve the college to work transition. As well, possible content of an Exit Course was evaluated. The importance of addressing college to work transitions is highlighted by two phenomena. First, there are specific employability skills that employers in Canada are seeking in newly hired employees. Second, the provincial government in Ontario is determining college funding based on graduate employment statistics which are measured by graduate satisfaction, graduate employment, and employer satisfaction. The research concentrated on the following stakeholders involved in the transition from college to work: (a) current students, (b) recent graduates, (c) support staff who assist students in college to work transition (Career Educators), and (d) employers. Through qualitative research, including focus groups and interviews, these stakeholder groups participated in the research to determine if the Exit Course was a viable solution to facilitate the transition from college to work. Focus groups were conducted with current students, while one-on-one, semi-structured interviews were conducted with recent graduates, Career Educators, and employers. Common themes elicited from the participants included the following: (a) although students were perceived by the participants of this study to be technically prepared for employment, they were perceived to have weak job search skills and unrealistic expectations of the world of work unless they had received the benefits of a Co-operative Education experience; (b) an Exit Course was seen as a viable solution to the issues involved in college to work transition; (c) an Exit Course should be comprised of skills necessary to obtain and succeed in a job and the course should be taught by individuals with extensive qualifications in this area; and (d) there is a need to develop college and business partnerships to ensure that students are connected to employers. Educators within post secondary institutions, specifically colleges, can benefit from the information provided within this study to gain a better understanding of the perceived level of preparedness of students for the transition from college to work. Suggestions with regard to how to improve this transition were made, with specific reference to the addition of an Exit Course as one possible solution.

Transition into the teaching profession: induction and mentoring issues surrounding secondary music teachers /

The purpose of this study was to investigate the issues surrounding the transition into the teaching profession by specifically focusing on teacher induction and mentoring issues while explicitly addressing matters of concern by secondary music teachers in a large suburban school board in southern Ontario. Participants included beginning teachers with fewer than 5 years of teaching, mid career teachers with between 6 and 15 years of instruction, and experienced teachers with more than 16 years of practice. The ' processes of mentoring and inducting new teachers within the board were examined, along with their relationships between proteges, mentors, and administrators. Further, internal and external programs specifically designed and implemented for newer music teachers were scrutinized and discussed. An analysis of key documents and literature on the subject was performed, and data were collected through 16 personal interviews. The findings suggest that although the necessity of mentoring and induction processes has begun to be recognized, there exists a fundamental relationship between mentoring and induction and the effect of the professional attachments to mentoring; the institutional and administrative supports that are enabled; and essential processes and practices between mentors and proteges. Together these three arms combine to support successfiil induction and mentoring initiatives that will help ease the transition into teaching.

Letter to Isabel from someone whose last name is Price [the first name is illegible]

Letter to Isabel from someone whose last name is Price [the first name is illegible] in which the writer says that the row with Phil regarding the bonds is settled (1 ½ pages). This person does not anticipate any more trouble with Phil. They are sending the personal effects to Isabel as well as a cheque for $3000 as her share of the estate, and more next month, July 15, 1901.

Études spectroscopiques expérimentales et théoriques de complexes de métaux de transition

Cette thèse présente une série d'études qui visent la compréhension de la structure électronique de complexes de métaux de transition en employant diverses méthodes de spectroscopie. L'information sur la structure électronique aide à comprendre et développer des nouveaux matériaux, des nouvelles voies de synthèses, ainsi que des nouveaux modèles théoriques. Habituellement, afin d'explorer la structure électronique d'un système qui comporte en son centre un métal de transition, l'information fournie par les spectres d'un seul composé n'est pas suffisante. On étudie une série de composés similaires, qui ont le même métal de transition à un degré d'oxydation donné, ainsi que des ligands qui forment des liaisons de différentes forces et caractéristiques avec le métal. Cependant, ces changements, bien qu'on les désire de faible impact, créent une grande perturbation de la structure électronique visée par les études. Afin d'étudier en profondeur une seule structure électronique, nous employons une stratégie d'analyse moins perturbante. Nous appliquons une pression hydrostatique sur les complexes de métaux de transition. Cette pression perturbe le système suffisamment pour nous livrer davantage d'informations sur la structure électronique, sans la « dénaturer ». Afin d'étudier précisément ces systèmes perturbés, la technique d'application de pression est conjuguée, dans la littérature, aux diverses techniques de spectroscopie d'absorption UV-visible, de luminescence, ainsi que de diffusion Raman. Pour extraire un maximum d'informations de ces expériences, on emploie des techniques de calculs de structure électronique ainsi que de dynamique des noyaux. Dans cette thèse, on tente de mettre en lumière la structure électronique de composés de molybdène(IV), de platine(II) et palladium(II) à l'aide de la technique de pression couplée aux spectroscopies de luminescence et de diffusion Raman. Dans le chapitre 3, on observe un déplacement de la bande de luminescence de +12 cm-1/kbar entre la pression ambiante et 25 kbar pour le complexe trans-[MoOCl(CN-t-Bu)4]BPh4, dont le centre métallique molybdène(IV)est de configuration électronique 4d2. Il s'agit de la première variation positive observée pour un complexe de type métal-oxo. À des pressions plus élevées, la tendance s'inverse. Le maximum d'énergie de la bande de luminescence se déplace de -8 cm-1/kbar. Ce changement de variation présage d'une compétition interne entre les ligands situés sur les différents axes de l'octaèdre. À l'aide de calculs basés sur la théorie de la fonctionnelle de la densité, on propose un mécanisme pour expliquer ce phénomène. Au cours du chapitre 4, on étudie des complexes de palladium(II) et de platine(II) qui ont les mêmes ligands. Un de ces ligands est le 1,4,7-trithiacyclononane (ttcn). On constate qu'à basse pression le ligand est bidentate. Par contre, lorsque la pression augmente, on constate, par exemple à l'aide du complexe [Pt(ttcn)Cl2], qu'une interaction anti-liante supplémentaire se produit entre le ligand ttcn et le métal, ce qui change la nature de l'orbitale HOMO. On observe un déplacement de la bande de luminescence de -19 cm-1/kbar. Tel que pour le complexe de molybdène(IV), le déplacement de la bande de luminescence dépend de la compétition entre les ligands situés sur les différents axes de l'octaèdre. L'interaction liante entre l'ion platine(II) et l'atome de soufre axial est l'effet le plus plausible qui peut induire un déplacement de la bande de luminescence vers les basses énergies. Ceci nous indique que cette interaction domine. Par contre, pour ce qui est du complexe palladium(II), la compétition est remportée par d'autres effets, car le déplacement de la bande de luminescence est de +6 cm-1/kbar. Encore une fois, des calculs, basés sur la théorie de la fonctionnelle de la densité, aident à explorer les causes de ces observations en suggérant des explications corroborées simultanément par les diverses expériences de spectroscopie. Lors du chapitre 5, une étude plus exacte de la structure électronique ainsi que de la dynamique des noyaux de complexes de métaux de transition est présentée. En effet, les complexes de palladium(II) et de platine(II), de type [M(X)4]2-, ont une structure simple, très symétrique. Le premier état excité de ces molécules subit la distorsion Jahn-Teller. On veut établir un protocole de travail pour les expérimentateurs afin d'analyser des spectres de molécules pour lesquelles l'approximation de Born-Oppenheimer n'est pas valide. On utilise la théorie de la fonctionnelle de la densité dépendante du temps ainsi que le modèle de Heidelberg afin de décrire des effets non adiabatique. On tente d'établir l'influence des effets non adiabatiques sur les spectres de ce type de complexe.

Synthèse de motifs biarylés : fonctionnalisation directe catalysée par des métaux de transition d’espèces aromatiques non activées

Dans ce mémoire sont décrites deux méthodologies impliquant la synthèse de biaryles via l’arylation directe d’espèces aromatiques non activées, catalysée par différents éléments de transition. La première partie présente les résultats obtenus dans le cadre du développement d’une méthode simple d’arylation directe du benzène catalysée au palladium. Cette méthodologie a l’avantage de procéder sans l’ajout de ligand phosphine généralement utilisé dans les systèmes catalytiques avec le palladium et par conséquent cette réaction peut évoluer à l’air libre sans nul besoin d’une atmosphère inerte. Il est proposé que le mécanisme de formation de ces motifs biarylés pourrait passer par la mise en place d’un palladium d’espèce cationique. Ces composés pourraient éventuellement s’avérer intéressants dans la synthèse de produits pharmaceutiques comportant un motif biphényle de ce type. La deuxième partie est consacrée à une méthodologie très attrayante utilisée pour la synthèse des biphényles impliquant le fer comme catalyseur. Plusieurs catalyseurs à base de rhodium, palladium et ruthénium ont démontré leur grande efficacité dans les processus de couplage direct (insertion C-H). Cette méthodologie consiste en la première méthode efficace d’utilisation d’un catalyseur de fer dans les couplages directs sp2-sp2 avec les iodures d’aryles et iodures d’hétéroaryles. Les avantages du fer, impliquent sans contredit, des coûts moindres et des impacts environnementaux bénins. Les conditions réactionnelles sont douces, la réaction peut tolérer la présence de plusieurs groupements fonctionnels et cette dernière peut même se produire à température ambiante. La transformation s’effectue généralement avec de très bons rendements et des études mécanistiques ont démontré que le processus réactionnel était radicalaire.

Histoire de l'interprétation de la transition néolithique : évolution des théories, modèles et hypothèses

Ce mémoire reconstitue l’histoire des théories, modèles et hypothèses qui ont été formulés, principalement en archéologie, afin d’expliquer la naissance de l’agriculture qui correspond, du point de vue chronologique, à la transition (ou révolution) néolithique. Ces schèmes explicatifs sont décrits chronologiquement depuis la naissance de l’archéologie préhistorique, dans la première moitié du XIXe siècle, jusqu’à maintenant. Ils sont classifiés en fonction des principales écoles qui ont joué un rôle prédominant en archéologie préhistorique depuis son origine, soit : l’évolutionnisme multilinéaire, l’école culturelle-historique, le processualisme, le néodarwinisme et le postprocessualisme. Les théories spécifiques (dites de « niveau mitoyen » ou « régionales ») qui ont été avancées par ces écoles sont présentées dans leur ordre chronologique, soit (principalement) : les théories de la dessiccation ou de l’oasis, des flancs de colline, de la périphérie, du stress démographique, du festin compétitif, de la révolution des symboles, etc. Ce mémoire pose enfin les jalons d’une théorie multifactorielle qui intègre ou synthétise les principaux facteurs qui ont pu influer sur la naissance de l’agriculture et sur la transition néolithique.

Vers une transition forestière en Thaïlande? : analyse causale de l’avancée des forêts à partir du cas de Phetchabun

Selon des thèses développées au cours des années 1990 et 2000, le développement économique constitue à la fois la source et la solution aux problèmes environnementaux. Au sujet des forêts, les transitions forestières (c’est-à-dire le passage de la déforestation à la reforestation) documentées dans certains pays développés seraient causées par des dynamiques universelles intrinsèques au développement et à la modernisation des sociétés. Nos travaux ont porté sur l’application de cette vision optimiste et controversée à l’évolution des superficies forestières en Thaïlande. S’appuyant sur une recension de la littérature, sur des données secondaires ainsi que nos travaux de terrain dans la région de Phetchabun, la thèse offre les apports suivants. Elle démontre que contrairement à l’idée répandue en Thaïlande, le ralentissement de la déforestation a été suivi par une expansion forestière substantielle entre environ 1995 et 2005. Ce regain forestier est lié à la disparition presque complète de l’expansion agricole, à l’établissement de plantations sylvicoles et, surtout, à l’abandon de terres agricoles. Cet abandon agricole découle d’abord et avant tout de la faible et incertaine rentabilité de l’agriculture dans certaines zones non irriguées. Ce phénomène s’explique, entre autres, par la dégradation des sols et par l’incapacité des agriculteurs à contrer l’impact des transformations économiques internes et externes à la Thaïlande. L’accroissement de la pression de conservation n’a pu contribuer à l’expansion forestière que dans certains contextes (projets de reforestation majeurs appuyés par l’armée, communautés divisées, terres déjà abandonnées). Sans en être une cause directe, l’intensification agricole et la croissance des secteurs non agricoles ont rendu moins pénibles la confiscation et l’abandon des terres et ont permis que de tels phénomènes surviennent sans entraîner d’importants troubles sociaux. Dans un contexte d’accroissement des prix agricoles, notamment celui du caoutchouc naturel, une partie du regain forestier aurait été perdu depuis 2005 en raison d’une ré-expansion des surfaces agricoles. Cela illustre le caractère non permanent de la transition forestière et la faiblesse des mesures de conservation lorsque les perspectives de profit sont grandes. La thèse montre que, pour être robuste, une théorie de la transition forestière doit être contingente et reconnaître que les variables macro-sociales fréquemment invoquées pour expliquer les transitions forestières (ex. : démocratisation, intensification agricole, croissance économique) peuvent aussi leur nuire. Une telle théorie doit également prendre en compte des éléments d’explication non strictement économiques et souvent négligés (menaces à la sécurité nationale, épuisement des terres perçues comme arables et libres, degré d’attachement aux terres et capacité d’adaptation et résilience des systèmes agricoles). Finalement, les écrits sur la transition forestière doivent reconnaître qu’elle a généralement impliqué des impacts sociaux et même environnementaux négatifs. Une lecture de la transition forestière plus nuancée et moins marquée par l’obsession de la seule reforestation est seule garante d’une saine gestion de l’environnement en respect avec les droits humains, la justice sociale et le développement durable.