Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Prevalence of heart failure and systolic ventricular dysfunction in older Australians: the Canberra Heart Study

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of heart failure (HF) and left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction in a population-based sample of older Australians. Design, setting and participants: A cross-sectional survey of 2000 randomly selected residents of Canberra, aged 60-86 years, conducted between February 2002 and June 2003. Participants were assessed by history, physical examination by a cardiologist, and echocardiography. Main outcome measures: Age- and sex-specific prevalence rates of clinical HF and LV systolic dysfunction (defined as LV ejection fraction

Recent changes in heart failure hospitalisations in Australia

Aim: To assess trends in admissions of patients with heart failure (HF) to all hospitals in Australia between 1996-1997 and 2003-2004. Methods and results: We carried out a retrospective analysis of the official population-based National Hospital Morbidity Data in Australia. Although the absolute number of separations with a principal diagnosis of HF remained stable, the age- and sex-standardized separation rate for HF recorded as principal diagnosis decreased from 2.0 per 1000 population in 1996-1997 to 1.6 per 1000 population in 2003-2004. The corresponding values for HF recorded in any diagnostic position were 7.7 and 4.7 per 1000 population. Men had higher in-hospital mortality than women (8.9% versus 8.1%,p < 0.001) and also a larger decrease in this measure over the study period (21.9% versus 14.4%). While the geometric mean length of stay for HF as principal diagnosis fell from 5.4 days in 1996-1997 to 4.9 days in 2003-2004, the proportion of bed-days related to such diagnoses relative to total bed days attributed to circulatory diseases increased from 12.8% to 13.7% (p < 0.001). Conclusion: There were no increase in number of admissions involving HF and standardized rates of hospital separations with HF fell in Australia between 1996 and 2004. The explanation for the observed declines in in-hospital case fatality and the separation rates should be sought in whole-of-community studies. (c) 2006 European Society of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study of fatigue failure in vulcanized rubber

Some aspects of fatigue failure in rubbers have been examined. Scanning electron micrographs of the surface exposed by the failure confirm the incremental, crack-propagation nature, of the fatigue process. Many other features of the failure surface have been identified and related to this process. The complicating effect of a reinforcing filler has also been investigated. The fatigue resistance of rubber test-pieces deformed in simple tension was measured as a function of frequency and temperature. This showed that an increase in frequency was equivalent to a decrease in temperature; for an amorphous unfilled rubber the time and temperature effects of crystallisation and fillers on the validity of this transformation is considered. This transformation indicates that hysteresis plays an important part in the fatigue process. Torsional pendulum measurements were used to demonstrate the dependence of the fatigue life on the mechanical damping. An apparatus was developed to measure the hysteresial energy loss directly at deformations, rates of deformation and temperatures consistent with a typical fatigue test. Measurements made with this apparatus are compared with fatigue values and a quantitative relationship is suggested describing fatigue, in terms of the energy lost per unit energy input in a cycle of a fatigue test.

The 3 per cent Barcelona Target: A Critical Appraisal of the Failure of the Lisbon Strategy’s Knowledgebased Economy and Society Project

Ten years after the unanimous approval of the Lisbon Strategy at a special meeting of the European Council on 23-24 March 2000 in Lisbon, it will be inevitable for the European Council, the European Commission and the majority of the EU member states to face with its fi asco and to account for the reasons of their fundamental policy, governance and economic failures in 2010. The recent turbulence of the global economy offers some excuses for the underperformance of the main objectives of the Lisbon Strategy in the essential social and economic domains, like job creation, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. Negative growth rates, macroeconomic and fi nancial instability, the contraction of the internal and external markets of the European economy, drop in demand for capital investment, goods and services, sinking corporate revenues, depreciation of corporate assets, increasing private and public indebtedness, falling rate of employment, weakening social cohesion, widening social inequality, and so forth not only deprive the majority of the EU member states of fulfi lling the main objectives of the Lisbon Strategy but also drive them into worse social and economic conditions in many policy domains than they were in 2000.

Causal attributions for success or failure by passing and failing students in College Algebra

Success in mathematics has been identified as a predictor of baccalaureate degree completion. Within the coursework of college mathematics, College Algebra has been identified as a high-risk course due to its low success rates. ^ Research in the field of attribution theory and academic achievement suggests a relationship between a student's attributional style and achievement. Theorists and researchers contend that attributions influence individual reactions to success and failure. They also report that individuals use attributions to explain and justify their performance. Studies in mathematics education identify attribution theory as the theoretical orientation most suited to explain academic performance in mathematics. This study focused on the relationship among a high risk course, low success rates, and attribution by examining the difference in the attributions passing and failing students gave for their performance in College Algebra. ^ The methods for the study included a pilot administration of the Causal Dimension Scale (CDSII) which was used to conduct reliability and principal component analyses. Then, students (n = 410) self-reported their performance on an in-class test and attributed their performance along the dimensions of locus of causality, stability, personal controllability, and external controllability. They also provided open-ended attribution statements to explain the cause of their performance. The quantitative data compared the passing and failing groups and their attributions for performance on a test using One-Way ANOVA and Pearson chi square procedures. The open-ended attribution statements were coded in relation to ability, effort, task difficulty, and luck and compared using a Pearson chi square procedure. ^ The results of the quantitative data comparing passing and failing groups and their attributions along the dimensions measured by the CDSII indicated statistical significance in locus of causality, stability, and personal controllability. The results comparing the open-ended attribution statements indicated statistical significance in the categories of effort and task difficulty. ^

Mand – to Tact Training Transfer Acquisition Rates in Children Diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder with Limited Verbal Skills

Autism Spectrum Disorder () is defined as “the presence of severe and pervasive impairments in reciprocal social interaction and in verbal and nonverbal communication skills” (Diagnostic & Statistical Manual, 2000). It is estimated that 1 in 68 children across the United States are diagnosed with ASD. One of the most common delays that children diagnosed with ASD experience are language delays. Children with ASD that have a language delay will often develop maladaptive behaviors as a result of poor communication skills (Carr & Durand, 1985). The failure to develop mand acquisition in typical fashion results in behaviors ranging from social withdrawal to self-injurious behaviors (Cooper et. al, 2007). A lack of a strong tact repertoire can further impede and complicate the learning of other necessary components of language due to the inability to successfully label items and events in the physical environment of the child. The purpose of this study is to replicate with a reversal in verbal operant training of the procedures described in Wallace et al. (2006) in which two children with ASD underwent tact training to facilitate the formation of mands; essentially this study aims to accomplish mand training first to establish as tact. It is hypothesized that mand training will result in a greater repertoire of tacts due to strength of the relationship between mands and the control over the social environment (Cooper et al., 2007). The two children in the study will be taught to mand items that will be ranked in order of preference via stimulus preference assessment. This study is of great importance due to the indispensable value of effective social communication skills. Data gathered on improving communication skills is of great value to the ASD community as the implications for functional skills result in better communication with family and greater control of individual functioning.

Mand – to Tact Training Transfer Acquisition Rates in Children Diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder with Limited Verbal Skills

Autism Spectrum Disorder () is defined as “the presence of severe and pervasive impairments in reciprocal social interaction and in verbal and nonverbal communication skills” (Diagnostic & Statistical Manual, 2000). It is estimated that 1 in 68 children across the United States are diagnosed with ASD. One of the most common delays that children diagnosed with ASD experience are language delays. Children with ASD that have a language delay will often develop maladaptive behaviors as a result of poor communication skills (Carr & Durand, 1985). The failure to develop mand acquisition in typical fashion results in behaviors ranging from social withdrawal to self-injurious behaviors (Cooper et. al, 2007). A lack of a strong tact repertoire can further impede and complicate the learning of other necessary components of language due to the inability to successfully label items and events in the physical environment of the child. The purpose of this study is to replicate with a reversal in verbal operant training of the procedures described in Wallace et al. (2006) in which two children with ASD underwent tact training to facilitate the formation of mands; essentially this study aims to accomplish mand training first to establish as tact. It is hypothesized that mand training will result in a greater repertoire of tacts due to strength of the relationship between mands and the control over the social environment (Cooper et al., 2007). The two children in the study will be taught to mand items that will be ranked in order of preference via stimulus preference assessment. This study is of great importance due to the indispensable value of effective social communication skills. Data gathered on improving communication skills is of great value to the ASD community as the implications for functional skills result in better communication with family and greater control of individual functioning.

Experimental investigation of water, snow and granular ice effects on ice failure processes and impact loads

A large series of laboratory ice crushing experiments was performed to investigate the effects of external boundary condition and indenter contact geometry on ice load magnitude under crushing conditions. Four boundary conditions were considered: dry cases, submerged cases, and cases with the presence of snow and granular ice material on the indenter surface. Indenter geometries were a flat plate, wedge shaped indenter, (reverse) conical indenter, and spherical indenter. These were impacted with artificially produced ice specimens of conical shape with 20° and 30° cone angles. All indenter – ice combinations were tested in dry and submerged environments at 1 mm/s and 100 mm/s indentation rates. Additional tests with the flat indentation plate were conducted at 10 mm/s impact velocity and a subset of scenarios with snow and granular ice material was evaluated. The tests were performed using a material testing system (MTS) machine located inside a cold room at an ambient temperature of - 7°C. Data acquisition comprised time, vertical force, and displacement. In several tests with the flat plate and wedge shaped indenter, supplementary information on local pressure patterns and contact area were obtained using tactile pressure sensors. All tests were recorded with a high speed video camera and still photos were taken before and after each test. Thin sections were taken of some specimens as well. Ice loads were found to strongly depend on contact condition, interrelated with pre-existing confinement and indentation rate. Submergence yielded higher forces, especially at the high indentation rate. This was very evident for the flat indentation plate and spherical indenter, and with restrictions for the wedge shaped indenter. No indication was found for the conical indenter. For the conical indenter it was concluded that the structural restriction due to the indenter geometry was dominating. The working surface for the water to act was not sufficient to influence the failure processes and associated ice loads. The presence of snow and granular ice significantly increased the forces at the low indentation rate (with the flat indentation plate) that were higher compared to submerged cases and far above the dry contact condition. Contact area measurements revealed a correlation of higher forces with a concurrent increase in actual contact area that depended on the respective boundary condition. In submergence, ice debris constitution was changed; ice extrusion, as well as crack development and propagation were impeded. Snow and granular ice seemed to provide additional material sources for establishing larger contact areas. The dry contact condition generally had the smallest real contact area, as well as the lowest forces. The comparison of nominal and measured contact areas revealed distinct deviations. The incorporation of those differences in contact process pressures-area relationships indicated that the overall process pressure was not substantially affected by the increased loads.

An Investigation into the Failure to Implement a Universal School Lunch Program during WWII and Postwar Reconstruction in Canada: The Case of Ontario

The purpose of this research is to investigate the various social, political and economic factors that contributed to Canada’s failure to implement a universal school lunch program during the 1940s. Although Canada developed several other social welfare programs in the post-war period, it remains one of the only industrialized nations that does not provide hot meals to children in elementary or secondary schools. Data from the province of Ontario, a major site of postwar reconstruction and policy-making, has been taken up to inform the broader national discourse on school lunches from the 1940s. National, Ontario provincial and City of Toronto archival records were collected and analyzed according to common themes, in order to identify key barriers that constrained government support of a hot meal program. Archival records were identified using key words, and were limited to materials created between 1930-1952. Analysis suggests that sufficient need for a hot meal program had not been established during the 1940s. Despite misleading nutrition messages, rates of malnutrition and nutrient-related disease were at an all-time low, and many Ontario school boards did not appear to have the necessary infrastructure required to supply all pupils with hot meals. The Canadian government had already employed significant resources to improve existing social security programs by coupling them with health education. This strategy reflected a shift in understanding malnutrition as a knowledge-based problem, as opposed to income-based. This understanding was further reinforced through the moralized dissemination of nutrition information, which placed blame on women for improperly raising their children. Ultimately, the strong uptake of nutrition as a public health issue in Ontario may have limited prospective responses to solutions already utilized in the public health domain, and directed favour away from a universal school lunch program for Canada.

A Central Role for Monocyte-Platelet Interactions in Heart Failure

Heart failure (HF) is an increasingly prevalent and costly multifactorial syndrome with high morbidity and mortality rates. The exact pathophysiological mechanisms leading to the development of HF are not completely understood. Several emerging paradigms implicate cardiometabolic risk factors, inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, myocardial fibrosis, and myocyte dysfunction as key factors in the gradual progression from a healthy state to HF. Inflammation is now a recognized factor in disease progression in HF and a therapeutic target. Furthermore, the monocyte-platelet interaction has been highlighted as an important pathophysiological link between inflammation, thrombosis, endothelial activation, and myocardial malfunction. The contribution of monocytes and platelets to acute cardiovascular injury and acute HF is well established. However, their role and interaction in the pathogenesis of chronic HF are not well understood. In particular, the cross talk between monocytes and platelets in the peripheral circulation and in the vicinity of the vascular wall in the form of monocyte-platelet complexes (MPCs) may be a crucial element, which influences the pathophysiology and progression of chronic heart disease and HF. In this review, we discuss the role of monocytes and platelets as key mediators of cardiovascular inflammation in HF, the mechanisms of cell activation, and the importance of monocyte-platelet interaction and complexes in HF pathogenesis. Finally, we summarize recent information on pharmacological inhibition of inflammation and studies of antithrombotic strategies in the setting of HF that can inform opportunities for future work. We discuss recent data on monocyte-platelet interactions and the potential benefits of therapy directed at MPCs, particularly in the setting of HF with preserved ejection fraction.

Natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care for heart failure:the STOP-HF randomized trial

IMPORTANCE: Prevention strategies for heart failure are needed.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a screening program using brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and collaborative care in an at-risk population in reducing newly diagnosed heart failure and prevalence of significant left ventricular (LV) systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure Study, a parallel-group randomized trial involving 1374 participants with cardiovascular risk factors (mean age, 64.8 [SD, 10.2] years) recruited from 39 primary care practices in Ireland between January 2005 and December 2009 and followed up until December 2011 (mean follow-up, 4.2 [SD, 1.2] years).

INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive usual primary care (control condition; n=677) or screening with BNP testing (n=697). Intervention-group participants with BNP levels of 50 pg/mL or higher underwent echocardiography and collaborative care between their primary care physician and specialist cardiovascular service.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was prevalence of asymptomatic LV dysfunction with or without newly diagnosed heart failure. Secondary end points included emergency hospitalization for arrhythmia, transient ischemic attack, stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral or pulmonary thrombosis/embolus, or heart failure.

RESULTS: A total of 263 patients (41.6%) in the intervention group had at least 1 BNP reading of 50 pg/mL or higher. The intervention group underwent more cardiovascular investigations (control, 496 per 1000 patient-years vs intervention, 850 per 1000 patient-years; incidence rate ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.61-1.83; P<.001) and received more renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system-based therapy at follow-up (control, 49.6%; intervention, 56.5%; P=.01). The primary end point of LV dysfunction with or without heart failure was met in 59 (8.7%) of 677 in the control group and 37 (5.3%) of 697 in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.37-0.82; P = .003). Asymptomatic LV dysfunction was found in 45 (6.6%) of 677 control-group patients and 30 (4.3%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88; P = .01). Heart failure occurred in 14 (2.1%) of 677 control-group patients and 7 (1.0%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12). The incidence rates of emergency hospitalization for major cardiovascular events were 40.4 per 1000 patient-years in the control group vs 22.3 per 1000 patient-years in the intervention group (incidence rate ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.81; P = .002).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients at risk of heart failure, BNP-based screening and collaborative care reduced the combined rates of LV systolic dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921960.

Heart failure in young adults

Heart failure (HF) is a major health concern affecting 15 million people in Europe and around 900 000 people in the U.K. HF predominantly affects the elderly, with the mean age of patients with a diagnosis of HF between 70 and 80 years. Most previous HF studies have accordingly focused on older patients. Although HF is less common in younger adults (<65 years), 15% to 20% of patients hospitalised with HF are younger than 60 years of age. Very few studies have described the characteristics of younger adults with HF and its outcome. The aims of this thesis are to describe the clinical characteristics of younger adults with HF, explore the epidemiology of HF in younger adults and determine their short- and long-term outcomes. This was made possible by access multiple databases consisting of large patient cohorts with HF. The first chapter is a systematic literature review of younger adults with HF. Gaps in the current literature were identified and the thesis focused on some of these. The CHARM study allows detail characterisations of younger adults with HF. It recorded characteristics of patients with HF, including symptoms and signs of HF, electrocardiographic changes, chest radiographic findings, and also left ventricular ejection fraction. HF hospitalisations and its precipitating factors were also recorded systematically. Younger adults were more likely to have a third heart sound and hepatomegaly, but less likely to have pulmonary crackles and peripheral oedema. Similarly, radiological findings in younger adults were less likely to show interstitial pulmonary oedema or pleural effusion. Interestingly, younger adults aged <40 years not only have similar HF hospitalisation rate to older patients, however during their presentation with decompensated HF, they were less likely to have clinical pulmonary oedema and radiological signs of HF. Physicians managing younger adults with HF need to be aware of this. Younger adults were also less compliant with medications and lifestyle restriction resulting in hospitalisation with decompensated HF. Fortunately, despite these challenges, mortality rates in younger adults with HF were lower compared to older patients. To further substantiate the findings from the CHARM study, the MAGGIC study, a meta-analysis consists of over 40 000 patients with HF from large observational studies and randomised controlled trials, was examined. In both databases, the commonest aetiology of HF in younger adults was dilated cardiomyopathy. The ejection fraction was the lowest in younger adults. Similar to the CHARM study, mortality rates in younger adults were lower compared to older patients. However, in the MAGGIC study, by stratifying mortality into patients with preserved ejection fraction and with reduced ejection fraction, younger patients with preserved ejection fraction have a much lower mortality rate compared to patients with reduced ejection fraction. Findings from clinical trials are not always reflective of the real life clinical practice. The U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a large and well-validated primary care database with 654 practices contributing information into the database representing approximated 8% of the U.K. population, is a rich dataset offering a unique opportunity to examine the characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of younger adults with HF in the community. In contrast to the CHARM and MAGGIC studies, younger adults aged <40 years were stratified into 20-29 and 30-39 years in the CPRD analysis. This is possible due to the larger number of younger adults with HF. Further stratifying the younger age groups demonstrated heterogeneity among younger adults with HF. In contrast to previous data showing younger adults have lower co-morbidities, the proportions of depression, chronic kidney disease, asthma, and any connective tissue disease were high among patients aged 20-29 years in the analysis from the CPRD. Surprisingly, the treatment rates for angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, and aldosterone antagonist were the lowest in patients aged 20-29 years. With the exception of patients aged ≥80 years, treatment rate with beta-blocker was also the lowest in patients aged 20-29 years. With over two decades of follow up, long-term mortality rates in younger adults with HF can be determined. The mortality rates continued to decline from 1988 to 2011. Physicians managing younger adults with HF can now use this contemporary data to provide prognostic information to patients and their family. A hospital administrative database is the logical next platform to explore younger adults with HF. The Alberta Ministry of Health database links an outpatient database to a hospitalisation database providing ample data to examine the relationship between outpatient clinic visits and hospital admissions in younger adults with HF. Following a diagnosis of HF in the outpatient setting, younger adults were admitted to the hospital with decompensated HF much sooner than older patients. Younger adults also presented to emergency department more frequently following their first hospitalisation for HF. In conclusion, this thesis presented the characteristics and outcomes of younger adults with HF, and helped to extend our current understanding on this important topic. I hope the data presented here will benefit not only physicians looking after younger adults with HF, but also patients and their family.

Usefulness of the Hepatocyte Growth Factor as a Predictor of Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With Acute Heart Failure Regardless of Ejection Fraction

Hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plays a role in the improvement of cardiac function and remodeling. Their serum levels are strongly related with mortality in chronic systolic heart failure (HF). The aim of this study was to study prognostic value of HGF in acute HF, interaction with ejection fraction, renal function, and natriuretic peptides. We included 373 patients (age 76 ± 10 years, left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 46 ± 14%, 48% men) consecutively admitted for acute HF. Blood samples were obtained at admission. All patients were followed up until death or close of study (>1 year, median 371 days). HGF concentrations were determined using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (human HGF immunoassay). The predictive power of HGF was estimated by Cox regression with calculation of Harrell C-statistic. HGF had a median of 1,942 pg/ml (interquartile rank 1,354). According to HGF quartiles, mortality rates (per 1,000 patients/year) were 98, 183, 375, and 393, respectively (p <0.001). In Cox regression analysis, HGF (hazard ratio1SD = 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.1, p = 0.002) and N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; hazard ratio1SD = 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 2.6, p = 0.002) were independent predictors of mortality. Interaction between HGF and LVEF, origin, and renal function was nonsignificant. The addition of HGF improved the predictive ability of the models (C-statistic 0.768 vs 0.741, p = 0.016). HGF showed a complementary value over NT-proBNP (p = 0.001): mortality rate was 490 with both above the median versus 72 with both below. In conclusion, in patients with acute HF, serum HGF concentrations are elevated and identify patients at higher risk of mortality, regardless of LVEF, ischemic origin, or renal function. HGF had independent and additive information over NT-proBNP.