Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

A global marine sedimentary response to the end-Permian mass extinction: Examples from southern Turkey and the western United States

The end-Permian mass extinction greatly diminished marine diversity and brought about a whole-scale restructuring of marine ecosystems; these ecosystem changes also profoundly affected the sedimentary record. Data presented here, attained through facies analyses of strata deposited during the immediate aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction (southern Turkey) and at the close of the Early Triassic (southwestern United States), in combination with a literature review, show that sedimentary systems were profoundly affected by: (1) a reduction in biotic diversity and abundance and (2) long-term environmental fluctuations that resulted from the end-Permian crisis. Lower Triassic strata display widespread microbialite and carbonate seafloor fan development and contain indicators of suppressed infaunal bioturbation such as flat-pebble conglomerates and wrinkle structures (facies considered unusual in post-Cambrian subtidal deposits). Our observations suggest that depositional systems, too, respond to biotic crises, and that certain facies may act as barometers of ecologic and environmental change independent of fossil assemblage analyses. Close investigation of facies changes during other critical times in Earth history may serve as an important tool in interpreting the ecology of metazoans and their environment.

The protracted Permo-Triassic crisis and multi-episode extinction around the Permian-Triassic boundary

The Permo-Triassic crisis was a major turning point in geological history. Following the end-Guadalupian extinction phase, the Palaeozoic biota underwent a steady decline through the Lopingian (Late Permian), resulting in their decimation at the level that is adopted as the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB). This trend coincided with the greatest Phanerozoic regression. The extinction at the end of the Guadalupian and that marking the end of the Permian are therefore related. The subsequent recovery of the biota occupied the whole of the Early Triassic. Several phases of perturbations in [delta]13Ccarb occurred through a similar period, from the late Wuchiapingian to the end of the Early Triassic. Therefore, the Permian-Triassic crisis was protracted, and spanned Late Permian and Early Triassic time. The extinction associated with the PTB occurred in two episodes, the main act with a prelude and the epilogue. The prelude commenced prior to beds 25 and 26 at Meishan and coincided with the end-Permian regression. The main act itself happened in beds 25 and 26 at Meishan. The epilogue occurred in the late Griesbachian and coincided with the second volcanogenic layer (bed 28) at Meishan. The temporal distribution of these episodes constrains the interpretation of mechanisms responsible for the greatest Phanerozoic mass extinction, particularly the significance of a postulated bolide impact that to our view may have occurred about 50,000[no-break space]Myr after the prelude. The prolonged and multi-phase nature of the Permo-Triassic crisis favours the mechanisms of the Earth's intrinsic evolution rather than extraterrestrial catastrophe. The most significant regression in the Phanerozoic, the palaeomagnetic disturbance of the Permo-Triassic Mixed Superchron, widespread extensive volcanism, and other events, may all be related, through deep-seated processes that occurred during the integration of Pangea. These combined processes could be responsible for the profound changes in marine, terrestrial and atmospheric environments that resulted in the end-Permian mass extinction. Bolide impact is possible but is neither an adequate nor a necessary explanation for these changes.

Deccan volcanism linked to the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary mass extinction: New evidence from ONGC wells in the Krishna-Godavari basin

A scientific challenge is to assess the role of Deccan volcanism in the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) mass extinction. Here we report on the stratigraphy and biologic effects of Deccan volcanism in eleven deep wells from the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) Basin, Andhra Pradesh, India. In these wells, two phases of Deccan volcanism record the world's largest and longest lava mega-flows interbedded in marine sediments in the K-G Basin about 1500 km from the main Deccan volcanic province. The main phase-2 eruptions (similar to 80% of total Deccan Traps) began in C29r and ended at or near the KTB, an interval that spans planktic foraminiferal zones CF1-CF2 and most of the nannofossil Micula prinsii zone, and is correlative with the rapid global warming and subsequent cooling near the end of the Maastrichtian. The mass extinction began in phase-2 preceding the first of four mega-flows. Planktic foraminifera suffered a 50% drop in species richness. Survivors suffered another 50% drop after the first mega-flow, leaving just 7 to 8 survivor species. No recovery occurred between the next three mega-flows and the mass extinction was complete with the last phase-2 mega-flow at the KTB. The mass extinction was likely the consequence of rapid and massive volcanic CO(2) and SO(2) gas emissions, leading to high continental weathering rates, global warming, cooling, acid rains, ocean acidification and a carbon crisis in the marine environment. Deccan volcanism phase-3 began in the early Danian near the C29R/C29n boundary correlative with the planktic foraminiferal zone P1a/P1b boundary and accounts for similar to 14% of the total volume of Deccan eruptions, including four of Earth's longest and largest mega-flows. No major faunal changes are observed in the intertrappeans of zone P1b, which suggests that environmental conditions remained tolerable, volcanic eruptions were less intense and/or separated by longer time intervals thus preventing runaway effects. Alternatively, early Danian assemblages evolved in adaptation to high-stress conditions in the aftermath of the mass extinction and therefore survived phase-3 volcanism. Full marine biotic recovery did not occur until after Deccan phase-3. These data suggest that the catastrophic effects of phase-2 Deccan volcanism upon the Cretaceous planktic foraminifera were a function of both the rapid and massive volcanic eruptions and the highly specialized faunal assemblages prone to extinction in a changing environment. Data from the K-G Basin indicates that Deccan phase-2 alone could have caused the KTB mass extinction and that impacts may have had secondary effects.

Good genes and good luck: Ammonoid diversity and the end-Permian mass extinction

The end-Permian mass extinction removed more than 80% of marine genera. Ammonoid cephalopods were among the organisms most affected by this crisis. The analysis of a global diversity data set of ammonoid genera covering about 106 million years centered on the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) shows that Triassic ammonoids actually reached levels of diversity higher than in the Permian less than 2 million years after the PTB. The data favor a hierarchical rather than logistic model of diversification coupled with a niche incumbency hypothesis. This explosive and nondelayed diversification contrasts with the slow and delayed character of the Triassic biotic recovery as currently illustrated for other, mainly benthic groups such as bivalves and gastropods.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Interobserver and intraobserver variability of apparent diffusion coefficient measurements in treated malignant hepatic lesions: measurements in the whole lesion versus in the area with the most restricted diffusion

Purpose: The increase of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) in treated hepatic malignancies compared to pre-therapeutic values has been interpreted as treatment success; however, the variability of ADC measurements remains unknown. Furthermore, ADC has been usually measured in the whole lesion, while measurements should be probably centered on the area with the most restricted diffusion (MRDA) as it represents potential tumoral residue. Our objective was to compare the inter/intraobserver variability of ADC measurements in the whole lesion and in MRDA. Material and methods: Forty patients previously treated with chemoembolization or radiofrequency were evaluated (20 on 1.5T and 20 on 3.0T). After consensual agreement on the best ADC image, two readers measured the ADC values using separate regions of interest that included the whole lesion and the whole MRDA without exceeding their borders. The same measurements were repeated two weeks later. Spearman test and the Bland-Altman method were used. Results: Interobserver correlation in ADC measurements in the whole lesion and MRDA was as follows: 0.962 and 0.884. Intraobserver correlation was, respectively, 0.992 and 0.979. Interobserver limits of variability (mm2/sec*10-3) were between -0.25/+0.28 in the whole lesion and between -0.51/+0.46 in MRDA. Intraobserver limits of variability were, respectively: -0.25/+0.24 and -0.43/+0.47. Conclusion: We observed a good inter/intraobserver correlation in ADC measurements. Nevertheless, a limited variability does exist, and it should be considered when interpreting ADC values of hepatic malignancies.

Genetic characterization of ninety elite soybean cultivars using coefficient of parentage

The objective of this work was to estimate the coefficient of parentage and to understand the genetic structure of 90 elite soybean cultivars, which are adapted to different Brazilian environments. A total of 4,005 coefficients of parentage (f) were obtained and used to group the cultivars by UPGMA method. The constructed dendrogram showed several related cultivar groups which shared similar ancestors and clearly showed the genetic structure of the main Brazilian cultivars. Effective population sizes (Ne) were also estimated for cultivars in different generations. The average f = 0.2124 value, obtained from cultivars classified into four decades according to the release year, suggested effective soybean population sizes of 11 and 13 calculated using arithmetic and weighted means, respectively. The relatively small Ne and the high parentage coefficient support the conclusion that there is a high similarity degree among the main soybean cultivars in Brazil.

A cophenetic correlation coefficient for Tocher's method

The objective of this work was to propose a way of using the Tocher's method of clustering to obtain a matrix similar to the cophenetic one obtained for hierarchical methods, which would allow the calculation of a cophenetic correlation. To illustrate the obtention of the proposed cophenetic matrix, we used two dissimilarity matrices - one obtained with the generalized squared Mahalanobis distance and the other with the Euclidean distance - between 17 garlic cultivars, based on six morphological characters. Basically, the proposal for obtaining the cophenetic matrix was to use the average distances within and between clusters, after performing the clustering. A function in R language was proposed to compute the cophenetic matrix for Tocher's method. The empirical distribution of this correlation coefficient was briefly studied. For both dissimilarity measures, the values of cophenetic correlation obtained for the Tocher's method were higher than those obtained with the hierarchical methods (Ward's algorithm and average linkage - UPGMA). Comparisons between the clustering made with the agglomerative hierarchical methods and with the Tocher's method can be performed using a criterion in common: the correlation between matrices of original and cophenetic distances.

Rapid marine recovery after the end-Permian mass-extinction event in the absence of marine anoxia

A new Early Triassic marine fauna is described from the Central Oman Mountains. The fauna is Griesbachian in age, on the basis of abundant conodonts and ammonoids, and was deposited in an oxygenated seamount setting off the Arabian platform margin. It is the first Griesbachian assemblage from a well-oxygenated marine setting and thus provides a test for the hypothesis that widespread anoxia prevented rapid recovery. The earliest Griesbachian (parvus zone) contains a low-diversity benthic fauna dominated by the bivalves Promyalina and Claraia. A similar level of recovery characterizes the immediate postextinction interval worldwide. However, the middle upper Griesbachian sedimentary rocks (isarcica and catinata zones) contain an incredibly diverse benthic fauna of bivalves, gastropods, articulate brachiopods, a new undescribed crinoid, echinoids, and ostracods. This fauna is more diverse and ecologically complex than the typical middle to late Griesbachian faunas described from oxygen-restricted settings worldwide. The level of postextinction recovery observed in the Oman fauna is not recorded elsewhere until the Spathian. These data support the hypothesis that the apparent delay in recovery after the end-Permian extinction event was due to widespread and prolonged benthic oxygen restriction: in the absence of anoxia, marine recovery is much faster.