Análisis del abordaje realizado por Colombia al crimen transnacional de la trata de personas como amenaza a la seguridad en el periodo 2004-2014: una mirada desde la securitización

El objetivo de esta monografía es analizar el abordaje a la trata de personas en Colombia durante el período 2004-2014 desde la teoría de la securitización, para determinar su posición en la agenda de seguridad del país. La hipótesis que se propone es que a través de algunos postulados de esta teoría es posible establecer que la trata de personas es un crimen transnacional que no ha sido percibido como amenaza para la seguridad del país, lo cual ha incidido en que no se hayan tomado medidas eficaces para contenerlo. A través de una investigación descriptiva que analiza las políticas de seguridad, y un ejercicio comparativo del abordaje gubernamental dado al secuestro durante este periodo, se intentará establecer una relación explicativa entre los postulados teóricos escogidos y el fenómeno analizado. Se espera también profundizar en el concepto de securitización y sus implicaciones para los estados y la población.

Robustness against large-scale failures in communications networks

This thesis studies robustness against large-scale failures in communications networks. If failures are isolated, they usually go unnoticed by users thanks to recovery mechanisms. However, such mechanisms are not effective against large-scale multiple failures. Large-scale failures may cause huge economic loss. A key requirement towards devising mechanisms to lessen their impact is the ability to evaluate network robustness. This thesis focuses on multilayer networks featuring separated control and data planes. The majority of the existing measures of robustness are unable to capture the true service degradation in such a setting, because they rely on purely topological features. One of the major contributions of this thesis is a new measure of functional robustness. The failure dynamics is modeled from the perspective of epidemic spreading, for which a new epidemic model is proposed. Another contribution is a taxonomy of multiple, large-scale failures, adapted to the needs and usage of the field of networking.

An evaluation of Bayesian designs for dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures previously proposed for dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers are reviewed and evaluated. Modifications are made to the expression of the prior distribution in order to make the procedure simpler to implement and a more relevant criterion for optimality is introduced. The results of an extensive simulation exercise to establish the proper-ties of the procedure and to aid choice between designs are summarized, and the way in which readers can use simulation to choose a design for their own trials is described. The influence of the value of the within-subject correlation on the procedure is investigated and the use of a simple prior to reflect uncertainty about the correlation is explored. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Persistence of varicella-zoster virus viraemia in patients with herpes zoster.

BACKGROUND: Herpes zoster is caused by the reactivation of varicella-zoster virus from sensory neurons. The commonest complication following zoster is chronic pain termed post herpetic neuralgia. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the dynamics of VZV viraemia and viral load following the resolution of zoster and its relationship to PHN development. STUDY DESIGN: Blood samples were collected at baseline, 1 month, 3 months and 6 month from a prospective study of 63 patients with active zoster. Quantification of VZV DNA in whole blood was performed using a real-time PCR assay. RESULTS: During acute zoster, all patients had detectable VZV DNA in their blood. VZV DNA remained detectable in the blood of 91% of patients at 6 months although levels declined significantly (p<0.0001). A history of prodromal symptoms (p=0.005) and severity of pain at baseline (p=0.038) as well as taking antivirals (p=0.046) and being immunocompromised (p=0.043) were associated, with longer time to recovery from PHN. Viral DNA loads were consistently higher in patients with risk factors for PHN and higher viral DNA loads over time were associated with longer time to recovery (p=0.058 overall and 0.038 in immunocompetent). CONCLUSIONS: Based on these observations we hypothesise that VZV replication persists following acute shingles and that higher viral DNA loads contribute to the risk factors for PHN.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Lower serum IgA levels in horses kept under intensive sanitary management and physical training

Quantity and variety of environmental antigens, age, diet, vaccine protocols, exercising practice and mucosal cytokine microenvironment are factors that influence serum immunoglobulin (Ig) levels. IgA, IgG, IgG(T) and IgM were quantified in 60 horses, which were classified into two groups, `intensive` or `relaxed`, according to sanitary standards of the facilities and physical exercise to which animals were subjected to. The `intensive` group presented lower means for all isotypes, but only IgA presented a significant (P < 0.0064) difference when compared to the `relaxed` group. This suggests that mucosal immunity found in the `intensive` group is lower when compared to the `relaxed` group. Our data suggest that athlete horses may be less poised to mount an effective mucosal immunity response to environmental challenges and should not be considered by the same perspectives as a free-ranging horse.

Vernacular meaning making : Examples of narrative impact in fiction film questioning the 'banal' notion in mediatization of religion theory

The outcome of an audience study supports theories stating that stories are a primary means by which we make sense of our experiences over time. Empirical examples of narrative impact are presented in which specific fiction film scenes condense spectators' lives, identities and beliefs. One conclusion is that spectators test the emotional realism of the narative for greater significance, connecting diegetic fiction experiences with their extra-diegetic world in their quest for meaning, self and identity. The 'banal' notion of the mediatization of religion theory is questioned as unsatisfactory in the theoretical context of individualized meaning-making processes. As a semantically negatively charged concept, it is problematic when analyzing empirical examples of spectators' use of fictional narratives, especially when trying to characterize the idiosyncratic and complex interplay between spectators' fiction emotions and their testing of mediated narratives in an exercise to find moral significance in extra-filmic life. Instead vernacular meaning-making is proposed.

Minorias, localidade e inclusão social : uma proposta para o resgate da legitimidade estatal

o tema das minorias parece ter atingido um ponto importante de maturidade dialética no meio acadêmico. Em Estados democráticos, como são a maior parte dos estados contemporâneos, surge como algo premente a questão da inclusão social, da integração de todos os componentes, grupos e pessoas, neste projeto de construção de uma sociedade que seja, de fato, para todos. Sem isso, por outro lado, não há como se falar em legitimidade estatal, em legitimidade do poder político constituído. Hoje, a questão da inclusão social das minorias passa a ser não apenas uma opção, mas uma necessidade, se de fato quisermos conferir ao Estado democrático uma legitimidade popular genuína. Neste sentido, a valorização da comunidade local pode ser uma opção interessante, fazendo o Estado e a sociedade retornarem a uma situação de legitimidade mais evidente.

Common currency and economic integration in Mercosur

A América Latina tem uma longa história de tentativas de alcançar uma integração regional, embora seu sucesso tenha sido modesto. Este trabalho procura mostrar que isso essencialmente ocorre não tanto pelas práticas protecionistas nos vários países, mas devido à falta de uma moeda comum, ou, pelo menos, de uma taxa de câmbio rigorosamente administrada. Os autores analisaram o critério da área ótima de moeda que mostra ser prudente aumentar a integração econômica antes de tentar implementar a coordenação das taxas de câmbio. Entretanto, nós mostramos que no Mercosul já existem as condições mínimas para começar a trabalhar nessa direção. A diminuição da instabilidade cambial pode encorajar a entrada de investimentos e o comércio nas economias latino-americanas. Os autores também desenvolveram um exercício simplificado para entender como poderia ser viável alcançar estabilidade da taxa de câmbio em nos dois maiores países da região (Brasil e Argentina) e avançar na adoção de uma moeda comum.

Fiscal multipliers in an incomplete markets economy

This paper studies the behavior of fiscal multipliers in two different economic environments: complete markets and incomplete markets. Based on steady state analysis, output multipliers are found within a range between 0.49 and 0.66, when the markets are complete. Under incomplete markets, output multiplier was found in an interval between 0.75 and 0.94. These results indicates that the market structure, which reflects the degree of risk sharing and the intensity of the precautionary motive faced by individuals, plays a key role in determining the fiscal multipliers. In the second part of the paper, was performed an exercise to analyze the dynamic response of macroeconomic aggregates to an exogenous and unexpected rise in government spending financed by lump-sum taxes. In this case, impact output multipliers varies in a range between 0.64 and 0.68, under complete markets, and within 1.05 and 1.20 when markets are incomplete. The results found under incomplete markets are very close to that found on related literature which usually uses an econometric approach or calibrated/estimated New Keynesian models. These results shows that taking into account the deficiencies in the insurance mechanisms can be an interesting way to reconcile theoretical models with the results found on related current literature, without the need of ad-hoc assumptions relative to price stickness.

Comparative advantage, heterogeneous firms and variable mark-ups

We develop a model of comparative advantage with monopolistic competition, that incorporates heterogeneous firms and endogenous mark-ups. We analyse how these features vary across countries with different factor endowments, and across markets of different size. In this model we can obtain trade gains via two channels. First, when we open the economy, most productive firms start to export their product, then, they demand more producing factors and wages rises, thus, those firms that are less productive will be forced to stop to produce. Second channel is via endogenous mark-ups, when we open the economy, the competition gets ``tougher'', then, mark-ups falls, thus, those firms that are less productive will stop to produce. We also show that comparative advantage works as a ``third channel'' of trade gains, because, all trade gains results are magnified in comparative advantage industry of both countries. We also make a numerical exercise to see how endogenous variables of the model vary when trade costs fall.

Análise paramétrica da injeção de vapor e solvente em reservatórios de óleo pesado

A significant fraction of the hydrocarbon reserves in the world is formed by heavy oils. From the thermal methods used to recovery these resources, Steamflooding has been one of the main economically viable alternatives. In Brazil, this technology is widely used by Petrobras in Northeast fields. Latent heat carried by steam heats the oil in the reservoir, reducing its viscosity and facilitating the production. In the last years, an alternative more and more used by the oil industry to increase the efficiency of this mechanism has been the addition of solvents. When co-injected with steam, the vaporized solvent condenses in the cooler regions of the reservoir and mixes with the oil, creating a low viscosity zone between the steam and the heavy oil. The mobility of the displaced fluid is then improved, resulting in an increase of oil recovery. To better understand this improved oil recovery method and investigate its applicability in reservoirs with properties similar to those found in Potiguar Basin, a numerical study was done to analyze the influence of some operational parameters (steam injection rate, injected solvent volume and solvent type) on oil recovery. Simulations were performed in STARS ("Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator"), a CMG ("Computer Modelling Group") program, version 2009.10. It was found that solvents addition to the injected steam not only anticipated the heated oil bank arrival to the producer well, but also increased the oil recovery. Lower cold water equivalent volumes were required to achieve the same oil recoveries from the models that injected only steam. Furthermore, much of the injected solvent was produced with the oil from the reservoir

Farinha de vísceras de aves em rações para a tilápia do Nilo (Oreochromis niloticus L.) durante a fase de reversão sexual

Neste trabalho, objetivou-se avaliar o desempenho, a sobrevivência e a efetividade de reversão de larvas de tilápia do Nilo (Oreochromis niloticus L.) alimentadas com rações contendo níveis crescentes de inclusão de farinha de vísceras de aves (FVA). Utilizou-se 500 larvas de tilápia do Nilo com dois dias de idade, distribuídas em um delineamento inteiramente casualizado com cinco tratamentos e cinco repetições, sendo a unidade experimental constituída por um aquário de 30 L com 20 larvas. Foram elaboradas cinco rações com cinco níveis de inclusão de FVA ( 0; 20; 40, 60% e 60% mais lisina sintética). Foram elaboradas rações isocalóricas, isocálcicas, isofosfóricas e isoprotéicas, com 60mg de a-metiltestosterona/kg, 38,6% de proteína digestível e 3.700 kcal de energia digestível/kg, de modo que a ração com inclusão de lisina foi isoaminoacídica para lisina em relação à ração sem a inclusão de FVA. O arraçoamento foi realizado quatro vezes ao dia, ad libitum. Ao final, foram avaliadas as médias de peso final (PF), comprimento total (CT), sobrevivência (SO) e efetividade de reversão (ER). Foi observado aumento linear no PF e CT com o aumento da inclusão da FVA na ração, enquanto, para SO, a ração sem FVA foi inferior às demais. As rações sem inclusão de FVA e com 20% de inclusão de lisina proporcionaram PF e CT médios inferiores e somente a ração sem FVA foi inferior para SO. Conclui-se que a FVA pode ser utilizada em rações para a tilápia do Nilo durante a reversão sexual.

Desempenho de três linhagens de tilápia submetidas ao tratamento com 17-α-metiltestosterona em condições ambientais não controladas

Este estudo foi realizado para descrever o efeito da reversão sexual de linhagens de tilápia sobre as taxas de sobrevivência, o crescimento e o percentual de machos fenotípicos em condições ambientais variáveis. Foram utilizadas duas linhagens de Oreochromis niloticus (tilápia-do-nilo comum e tailandesa) e uma híbrida Oreochromis sp (vermelha), que receberam o hormônio masculinizante 17-α-metiltestosterona incorporado à ração (60 mg/kg) durante os primeiros 30 dias de vida. Aos 90 dias de idade, a taxa de sobrevivência da tilápia-do-nilo comum superou a da tilápia tailandesa em 39,00% e da tilápia vermelha em 22,70%, enquanto a taxa instantânea de crescimento foi similar nas linhagens comum e tailandesa e significativamente inferior na linhagem vermelha. O percentual de machos, de acordo com o exame de gônadas, decresceu na seguinte ordem: tilápia-do-nilo comum, tailandesa e vermelha. em situações de oscilação de temperatura, a linhagem comum tem maior desempenho produtivo, mas são necessários estudos para comprovação da pureza genética e análise do manejo reprodutivo de linhagens de tilápia.