An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

Evolving Future Internet clean-slate Entity Title Architecture with quality-oriented control-plane extensions

A Internet atual vem sofrendo vários problemas em termos de escalabilidade, desempenho, mobilidade, etc., devido ao vertiginoso incremento no número de usuários e o surgimento de novos serviços com novas demandas, propiciando assim o nascimento da Internet do Futuro. Novas propostas sobre redes orientadas a conteúdo, como a arquitetura Entidade Titulo (ETArch), proveem novos serviços para este tipo de cenários, implementados sobre o paradigma de redes definidas por software. Contudo, o modelo de transporte do ETArch é equivalente ao modelo best-effort da Internet atual, e vem limitando a confiabilidade das suas comunicações. Neste trabalho, ETArch é redesenhado seguindo o paradigma do sobreaprovisionamento de recursos para conseguir uma alocação de recursos avançada integrada com OpenFlow. Como resultado, o framework SMART (Suporte de Sessões Móveis com Alta Demanda de Recursos de Transporte), permite que a rede defina semanticamente os requisitos qualitativos das sessões para assim gerenciar o controle de Qualidade de Serviço visando manter a melhor Qualidade de Experiência possível. A avaliação do planos de dados e de controle teve lugar na plataforma de testes na ilha do projeto OFELIA, mostrando o suporte de aplicações móveis multimídia com alta demanda de recursos de transporte com QoS e QoE garantidos através de um esquema de sinalização restrito em comparação com o ETArch legado

De sitter relativity: a natural scenario for an evolving Lambda

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spin-orbit coupling for tidally evolving super-Earths

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Portrait of the economist as a young man: Raúl Prebisch's evolving views on the business cycle and money, 1919-1949

Includes bibliography

Fast-Evolving Mitochondrial DNA in Ceriantharia: A Reflection of Hexacorallia Paraphyly?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Review of Global Warming in the 21st Century. Volume 1: Our Evolving Climate Crisis; Volume 2: Melting Ice and Warming Seas; Volume 3: Plants and Animals in Peril by Bruce E. Johansen

There is compelling evidence that Planet Earth is on the path to an era of global warming that has serious implications for the well-being of both people and nature. This three-volume synthesis of literature will be a marvelous place for both the public and new scholars interested in global warming to begin their pursuit of the subject. The author captures the best of the scientific literature and press materials appearing in recent years. The utility of these volumes as a resource for gaining a broad background or pursuing a particular aspect of global warming is enhanced by Johansen's talent for explaining with clarity a vast and rapidly growing subject.

NUMERICAL AND ANALYTICAL VERIFICATION OF A MULTISCALE COMPUTATIONAL MODEL FOR IMPACT PROBLEMS IN HETEROGENEOUS VISCOELASTIC MATERIALS WITH EVOLVING DAMAGE

Composites are engineered materials that take advantage of the particular properties of each of its two or more constituents. They are designed to be stronger, lighter and to last longer which can lead to the creation of safer protection gear, more fuel efficient transportation methods and more affordable materials, among other examples. This thesis proposes a numerical and analytical verification of an in-house developed multiscale model for predicting the mechanical behavior of composite materials with various configurations subjected to impact loading. This verification is done by comparing the results obtained with analytical and numerical solutions with the results found when using the model. The model takes into account the heterogeneity of the materials that can only be noticed at smaller length scales, based on the fundamental structural properties of each of the composite’s constituents. This model can potentially reduce or eliminate the need of costly and time consuming experiments that are necessary for material characterization since it relies strictly upon the fundamental structural properties of each of the composite’s constituents. The results from simulations using the multiscale model were compared against results from direct simulations using over-killed meshes, which considered all heterogeneities explicitly in the global scale, indicating that the model is an accurate and fast tool to model composites under impact loads. Advisor: David H. Allen

Evolving Bird Management Research at the USDA Wildlife Service’s National Wildlife Research Center

As the methods-development arm of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Wildlife Services program, the National Wildlife Research Center (NWRC) is charged with developing tools and information for protecting agriculture, human health and safety, and property from problems caused by wildlife, including birds. Increasingly the NWRC is being asked to provide basic ecological information on the population status of various bird species, and its role is expanding from a reactive one of providing management options to that of predicting long-term implications of various management actions. This paper describes several areas of research by NWRC scientists to address population-level questions in support of WS mission.

Evolving decision trees with beam search-based initialization and lexicographic multi-objective evaluation

Decision tree induction algorithms represent one of the most popular techniques for dealing with classification problems. However, traditional decision-tree induction algorithms implement a greedy approach for node splitting that is inherently susceptible to local optima convergence. Evolutionary algorithms can avoid the problems associated with a greedy search and have been successfully employed to the induction of decision trees. Previously, we proposed a lexicographic multi-objective genetic algorithm for decision-tree induction, named LEGAL-Tree. In this work, we propose extending this approach substantially, particularly w.r.t. two important evolutionary aspects: the initialization of the population and the fitness function. We carry out a comprehensive set of experiments to validate our extended algorithm. The experimental results suggest that it is able to outperform both traditional algorithms for decision-tree induction and another evolutionary algorithm in a variety of application domains.

Gender and identity classification for a naive and evolving system

[EN]This paper does not propose a new technique for face representationorclassification. Insteadtheworkdescribed here investigates the evolution of an automatic system which, based on a currently common framework, and starting from an empty memory, modifies its classifiers according to experience. In the experiments we reproduce up to a certain extent the process of successive meetings. The results achieved, even when the number of different individuals is still reduced compared to off-line classifiers, are promising.

Hepatitis C virus infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: a rapidly evolving epidemic

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has a growing impact on morbidity and mortality in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We assessed trends in HCV incidence in the different HIV transmission groups in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).