956 resultados para environmental modeling


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Two experiments were conducted to develop and evaluate a model to estimate ME requirements and determine Gompertz growth parameters for broilers. The first experiment was conducted to determine maintenance energy requirements and the efficiencies of energy utilization for fat and protein deposition. Maintenance ME (ME m) requirements were estimated to be 157.8, 112.1, and 127.2 kcal of ME/kg 0.75 per day for broilers at 13, 23, and 32°C, respectively. Environmental temperature (T) had a quadratic effect on maintenance requirements (ME m = 307.87 - 15.63T + 0.3105T 2; r 2= 0.93). Energy requirements for fat and protein deposition were estimated to be 13.52 and 12.59 kcal of ME/g, respectively. Based on these coefficients, a model was developed to calculate daily ME requirements: ME = BW 0.75 (307.87 - 15.63T + 0.3105 T 2) + 13.52 G f + 12.59 G p. This model considers live BW, the effects of environmental temperature, and fractional fat (G f) and protein (G p) deposition. The second experiment was carried out to estimate the growth parameters of Ross broilers and to collect data to evaluate the ME requirement model proposed. Live BW, empty feather-free carcass, weight of the feathers, and carcass chemical compositions were analyzed until 16 wk of age. Parameters of Gompertz curves for each component were estimated. Males had higher growth potential and higher capacity to deposit nutrients than females, except for fat deposition. Data of BW and body composition collected in this experiment were fitted into the energy model proposed herein and the equations described by Emmans (1989) and Chwalibog (1991). The daily ME requirements estimated by the model determined in this study were closer to the ME intake observed in this trial compared with other models. ©2005 Poultry Science Association, Inc.

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Specialized literature states that proper environmental management at companies requires support from human resource management. This occurs because the more efficient and effective human resource management is, the more it tends to contribute towards the organization's objectives. Considering that environmental management is an emerging organizational objective, human resource practices, when efficient and effective, tend to incorporate environmental goal and to become greener. In order to contribute to this emerging field of research, this paper reports on an empirical study about the relationship between human resources and environmental management at 75 Brazilian companies. The data collected were analyzed statistically using Structural Equation Modeling. The main results indicated that human resource management practices tend to statistically significant relate to environmental management at analyzed companies, through validation of H 1, but his relationship can be considered weak. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

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The main objective of this study is to verify the influence of Environmental Management (EM) on Operational Performance (OP) in Brazilian automotive companies, analyzing whether Lean Manufacturing (LM) and Human Resources (HR) interfere in the greening of these companies. Therefore, a conceptual framework listing these concepts was proposed, and three research hypotheses were presented. A questionnaire was elaborated based on this theoretical background and sent to respondents occupying the highest positions in the production/operations areas of Brazilian automotive companies. The data, collected from 75 companies, were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The main results are as follows: (a) the model tested revealed an adequate goodness of fit, showing that overall, the relations proposed between EM and OP and between HR, LM and EM tend to be statistically valid; (b) EM tends to influence OP in a positive and statistically weak manner; (c) LM has a greater influence on EM when compared to the influence HR has over EM; (d) HR has a positive relationship over EM, but the statistical significance of this relationship is less than that of the other evaluated relationships. The originality of this paper lies in its gathering the concepts of EM, LM, HR and OP in a single study, as they generally tend not to be treated jointly. This paper also provided valid empirical evidence for a littlestudied context: the Brazilian automotive sector. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The growth of maritime transport and oil exploitation activities may increase the risk of oil spills. Thus, plans and actions to prevent or mitigate impacts are needed to minimize the effects caused by oil. However, tools used worldwide to support contingency plans have not been integrated, thus leading to failure in establishing priority areas. This investigation aimed to develop indices of environmental vulnerability to oil (IEVO), by combining information about environmental sensibility to oil and results of numerical modeling of spilled oil. To achieve that, a case study concerning to oil spills scenarios in a subtropical coastal area was designed, and IEVOs were calculated and presented in maps, in order to make the information about the areas' vulnerability more easily visualized. For summer, the extension of coastline potentially affected by oil was approximately 150. km, and most of the coastline presented medium to high vulnerability. For winter, 230. km coastline would be affected, from which 75% were classified as medium to high vulnerability. Thus, IEVO maps allowed a rapid and clearer interpretation of the vulnerability of the mapped region, facilitating the planning process and the actions in response to an oil spill. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The aim of this research is to verify the relationship between the maturity levels of environmental management and the adoption of green supply chain management (GSCM) practices by electro-electronic companies in Brazil. In this work a two-phase research was conducted, with one quantitative and the other qualitative. The quantitative phase aimed to test whether a relationship between the maturity levels of environmental management and GSCM exists, while the qualitative phase tried to detail the characteristics of this relationship. The quantitative phase was conducted through a survey with 100 Brazilian electro-electronic companies and the collected data were processed using Structural Equation Modeling. For the qualitative phase, a multiple case study was conducted with three companies located in Brazil. The results indicate that: (1) The main hypothesis was confirmed and considered statistically valid, indicating that, indeed, the maturity level of environmental management influences the adoption of GSCM practices; (2) a coevolution tends to occur between the environmental maturity and the GSCM practices; that is, the more developed is the company's environmental management, more complex GSCM practices are adopted; and (3) the GSCM internal practices tend to present a greater relative adoption than the external practices; these external practices of GSCM tend to be adopted when the company is inserted in a higher environmental stage and/or operates under a scenario of stronger normative environmental pressure. By the way, this is the first research mixing survey and case studies on GSCM in Brazil. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The problem of desiccation cracks in soils has received increasing attention in the last few years, in both experimental investigations and modeling. Experimental research has been mainly focused on the behavior of slurries subjected to drying in plates of different shapes, sizes and thickness. The main objectives of these studies were to learn about the process of crack formation under controlled environmental conditions, and also to better understand the effect of different factors (e.g. soil type, boundary conditions, soil thickness) on the morphology of the crack network. As for the numerical modeling, different approaches have been suggested lately to describe the behavior of drying cracks in soils. One aspect that it is still difficult to describe properly is the crack pattern observed in desiccated soils. This work presents a novel technique to model the behavior of drying soils. The crack patter observed in desiccation tests on circular plates are simulated with the main objective of predicting the effect of soil thickness on crack pattern. Good agreement between experimental results and model prediction are observed.

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A method is presented for estimating age-specific mortality based on minimal information: a model life table and an estimate of longevity. This approach uses expected patterns of mammalian survivorship to define a general model of age-specific mortality rates. One such model life table is based on data for northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) using Siler’s (1979) 5-parameter competing risk model. Alternative model life tables are based on historical data for human females and on a published model for Old World monkeys. Survival rates for a marine mammal species are then calculated by scaling these models by the longevity of that species. By using a realistic model (instead of assuming constant mortality), one can see more easily the real biological limits to population growth. The mortality estimation procedure is illustrated with examples of spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena).

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Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

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Land development in the vicinity of airports often leads to land-use that can attract birds that are hazardous to aviation operations. For this reason, certain forms of land-use have traditionally been discouraged within prescribed distances of Canadian airports. However, this often leads to an unrealistic prohibition of land-use in the vicinity of airports located in urban settings. Furthermore, it is often unclear that the desired safety goals have been achieved. This paper describes a model that was created to assist in the development of zoning regulations for a future airport site in Canada. The framework links land-use to bird-related safety-risks and aircraft operations by categorizing the predictable relationships between: (i) different land uses found in urbanized and urbanizing settings near airports; (ii) bird species; and (iii) the different safety-risks to aircraft during various phases of flight. The latter is assessed relative to the runway approach and departure paths. Bird species are ranked to reflect the potential severity of an impact with an aircraft (using bird weight, flocking characteristics, and flight behaviours). These criteria are then employed to chart bird-related safety-risks relative to runway reference points. Each form of land-use is categorized to reflect the degree to which it attracts hazardous bird species. From this information, hazard and risk matrices have been developed and applied to the future airport setting, thereby providing risk-based guidance on appropriate land-uses that range from prohibited to acceptable. The framework has subsequently been applied to an existing Canadian airport, and is currently being adapted for national application. The framework provides a risk-based and science-based approach that offers municipalities and property owner’s flexibility in managing the risks to aviation related to their land use.

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The difference in phenotypes of queens and workers is a hallmark of the highly eusocial insects. The caste dimorphism is often described as a switch-controlled polyphenism, in which environmental conditions decide an individual's caste. Using theoretical modeling and empirical data from honeybees, we show that there is no discrete larval developmental switch. Instead, a combination of larval developmental plasticity and nurse worker feeding behavior make up a colony-level social and physiological system that regulates development and produces the caste dimorphism. Discrete queen and worker phenotypes are the result of discrete feeding regimes imposed by nurses, whereas a range of experimental feeding regimes produces a continuous range of phenotypes. Worker ovariole numbers are reduced through feeding-regime-mediated reduction in juvenile hormone titers, involving reduced sugar in the larval food. Based on the mechanisms identified in our analysis, we propose a scenario of the evolutionary history of honeybee development and feeding regimes.

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Exergy analysis is applied to assess the energy conversion processes that take place in the human body, aiming at developing indicators of health and performance based on the concepts of exergy destroyed rate and exergy efficiency. The thermal behavior of the human body is simulated by a model composed of 15 cylinders with elliptical cross section representing: head, neck, trunk, arms, forearms, hands, thighs, legs, and feet. For each, a combination of tissues is considered. The energy equation is solved for each cylinder, being possible to obtain transitory response from the body due to a variation in environmental conditions. With this model, it is possible to obtain heat and mass flow rates to the environment due to radiation, convection, evaporation and respiration. The exergy balances provide the exergy variation due to heat and mass exchange over the body, and the exergy variation over time for each compartments tissue and blood, the sum of which leads to the total variation of the body. Results indicate that exergy destroyed and exergy efficiency decrease over lifespan and the human body is more efficient and destroys less exergy in lower relative humidities and higher temperatures. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Species distribution models (SDMs) can be useful for different conservation purposes. We discuss the importance of fitting spatial scale and using current records and relevant predictors aiming conservation. We choose jaguar (Panthera onca) as a target species and Brazil and Atlantic Forest biome as study areas. We tested two different extents (continent and biome) and resolutions (similar to 4 Km and similar to 1 Km) in Maxent with 186 records and 11 predictors (bioclimatic, elevation, land-use and landscape structure). All models presented satisfactory AUC values (>0.70) and low omission errors (<23%). SDMs were scale-sensitive as the use of reduced extent implied in significant gains to model performance generating more constrained and real predictive distribution maps. Continental-scale models performed poorly in predicting potential current jaguar distribution, but they reached the historic distribution. Specificity increased significantly from coarse to finer-scale models due to the reduction of overprediction. The variability of environmental space (E-space) differed for most of climatic variables between continental and biome-scale and the representation of the E-space by predictors differed significantly (t = 2.42, g.I. = 9, P < 0.05). Refining spatial scale, incorporating landscape variables and improving the quality of biological data are essential for improving model prediction for conservation purposes.