The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

44 p.

Sensitivity of sturgeons to environmental hypoxia: a review of physiological and ecological evidence

In this essay, three lines of evidence are developed that sturgeons in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere are unusually sensitive to hypoxic conditions: 1. In comparison to other fishes,sturgeons have a limited behavioral and physiological capacity to respond to hypoxia. Basal metabolism, growth, feeding rate, and survival are sensitive to changes in oxygen level, which may indicate a relatively poor ability of sturgeons to oxyregulate. 2. During summertime, temperatures >20°C amplify the effect of hypoxia on sturgeons and other fishes due to a temperature oxygen "squeeze" (Coutant 1987). In bottom waters, this interaction results in substantial reduction of habitat; in dry years, sturgeon nursery habitats in the Chesapeake Bay may be particularly reduced or even eliminated. 3. While evidence for population level effects due to hypoxia is circumstantial, there are corresponding trends between the absence of Atlantic sturgeon reproduction in estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay where summertime hypoxia predominates on a system-wide scale. Also, the recent and dramatic recovery of shortnose sturgeon in the Hudson River (4-bid increase in abundance from 1980 to1995) may have been stimulated by improvement of a large portion of the nursery habitat that was restored from hypoxia to normoxia during the period 1973-1978.

Real-World Social Cognition: Context Effects in Face and Threat Processing

As borne out by everyday social experience, social cognition is highly dependent on context, modulated by a host of factors that arise from the social environment in which we live. While streamlined laboratory research provides excellent experimental control, it can be limited to telling us about the capabilities of the brain under artificial conditions, rather than elucidating the processes that come into play in the real world. Consideration of the impact of ecologically valid contextual cues on social cognition will improve the generalizability of social neuroscience findings also to pathology, e.g., to psychiatric illnesses. To help bridge between laboratory research and social cognition as we experience it in the real world, this thesis investigates three themes: (1) increasing the naturalness of stimuli with richer contextual cues, (2) the potentially special contextual case of social cognition when two people interact directly, and (3) a third theme of experimental believability, which runs in parallel to the first two themes. Focusing on the first two themes, in work with two patient populations, we explore neural contributions to two topics in social cognition. First, we document a basic approach bias in rare patients with bilateral lesions of the amygdala. This finding is then related to the contextual factor of ambiguity, and further investigated together with other contextual cues in a sample of healthy individuals tested over the internet, finally yielding a hierarchical decision tree for social threat evaluation. Second, we demonstrate that neural processing of eye gaze in brain structures related to face, gaze, and social processing is differently modulated by the direct presence of another live person. This question is investigated using fMRI in people with autism and controls. Across a range of topics, we demonstrate that two themes of ecological validity — integration of naturalistic contextual cues, and social interaction — influence social cognition, that particular brain structures mediate this processing, and that it will be crucial to study interaction in order to understand disorders of social interaction such as autism.

Ecological study of the River Lambourn. Report for the period October 1970 to September 1973

Few detailed studies have been made on the ecology of the chalk streams. A complex community of plants and animals is present and much more information is required to achieve an understanding of the requirements and interactions of all the species. It is important that the rivers affected by this scheme should be studied and kept under continued observation so that any effects produced by the scheme can be detected. This need has been recognised by the Thames Conservancy and the Water Resources Board who jointly sponsored this investigation on one of the chalk streams involved in the scheme. The present investigation has two main objectives both of which depend on obtaining a detailed picture of the ecology of the river at the present time. First, it will provide basic information on the state of the river prior to the development of the pumping scheme which will be available for comparison at any later date. Secondly, it may be possible to use some of the data to predict the ecological changes which may occur if the flow of the river is altered by the pumping scheme. The study covers suspended solids, invertebrates, fish.This report is part of a series of fives studies on the River Lambourn which were undertaken between 1970 and 1979. [PDF contains 24 pages]

Ecological study of chalk and limestone streams. Annual Report October 1974 to September 1975

Few detailed studies have been made on the ecology of the chalk streams. A complex community of plants and animals is present and much more information is required to achieve an understanding of the requirements and interactions of all the species. It is important that the rivers affected by this scheme should be studied and kept under continued observation so that any effects produced by the scheme can be detected. The report gives a brief synopsis of work carried out during the second year of a four year ecological study sponsored jointly by the Thames Water Authority and the Central Water Planning Unit. It assumes some familiarity with the investigations carried out on the River Lambourn during the preceding three years which was sponsored jointly by the Thames Conservancy and Water Resources Board (immediate predecessors of the present sponsoring organisations). (PDF contains 31 pages)

Ecological study of chalk and limestone stream. Annual report October 1975 to September 1976

Few detailed studies have been made on the ecology of the chalk streams. A complex community of plants and animals is present and much more information is required to achieve an understanding of the requirements and interactions of all the species. It is important that the rivers affected by this scheme should be studied and kept under continued observation so that any effects produced by the scheme can be detected. The report gives a brief synopsis of work carried out during the third year of a four year ecological study sponsored jointly by the Thames Water Authority and the Central Water Planning Unit. It assumes . It assumes some familiarity with the investigations carried out on the River Lambourn during the preceding three years which was sponsored jointly by the Thames Conservancy and Water Resources Board (immediate predecessors of the present sponsoring organisations). (PDF contains 35 pages)

Ecological study of chalk streams. Lambourn project. Interim report October 1977 to April 1979

Few detailed studies have been made on the ecology of the chalk streams. A complex community of plants and animals is present and much more information is required to achieve an understanding of the requirements and interactions of all the species. It is important that the rivers affected by this scheme should be studied and kept under continued observation so that any effects produced by the scheme can be detected. The report gives a synopsis of work carried out between 1971 and 1979 focusing on the present phase 1978-1979. It assumes some familiarity with the investigations carried out on the River Lambourn during the preceding years. The aims of the present phase of the project may be divided into two broad aspects. The first involves collecting further information in the field and includes three objectives: a continuation of studies on the Lambourn sites at Bagnor; comparative studies on other chalk streams; and a comparative study on a limestone stream. The second involves detailed analyses of data previously collected to document the recovery of the Lambourn from operational pumping and to attempt to develop simple conceptual and predictive models applicable over a wide range of physical and geographical variables. (PDF contains 43 pages)

The effects of stress on benthic algal communities

The effects of stress on both microalgal and macroalgal communities are considered. On one hand the contrasting approaches of studies of these two communities reflect intrinsic differences in plant size, longevity and ease of handling. On the other hand they reveal that biological monitoring of the potentially deleterious effects of man's activities has focused largely on freshwater environments in which macroalgae only occasionally dominate. Large conspicuous plants can be readily investigated as individuals, whereas it is virtually impossible to trace effects of stress on an individual cell of a vegetatively-reproducing microalga; a population approach is almost inevitably necessary. However, rapid turnover rates, a spectrum of ecological characteristics distributed between many taxa, and the potential for statistical analysis, have facilitated the use of microalgae in environmental impact studies. Failure to extend such investigations into marine systems rests as much on man's ability to ignore environmental deterioration until it affects his quality of life as on the visual dominance of seaweeds around our coasts. However, large gaps remain in our knowledge of both large and small algae; some reported community changes over time are suspect, and the causes of even blatant changes are not always apparent.

Landscape Genetics for the Empirical Assessment of Resistance Surfaces: The European Pine Marten (Martes martes) as a Target-Species of a Regional Ecological Network

Coherent ecological networks (EN) composed of core areas linked by ecological corridors are being developed worldwide with the goal of promoting landscape connectivity and biodiversity conservation. However, empirical assessment of the performance of EN designs is critical to evaluate the utility of these networks to mitigate effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Landscape genetics provides a particularly valuable framework to address the question of functional connectivity by providing a direct means to investigate the effects of landscape structure on gene flow. The goals of this study are (1) to evaluate the landscape features that drive gene flow of an EN target species (European pine marten), and (2) evaluate the optimality of a regional EN design in providing connectivity for this species within the Basque Country (North Spain). Using partial Mantel tests in a reciprocal causal modeling framework we competed 59 alternative models, including isolation by distance and the regional EN. Our analysis indicated that the regional EN was among the most supported resistance models for the pine marten, but was not the best supported model. Gene flow of pine marten in northern Spain is facilitated by natural vegetation, and is resisted by anthropogenic landcover types and roads. Our results suggest that the regional EN design being implemented in the Basque Country will effectively facilitate gene flow of forest dwelling species at regional scale.

Effects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.

The ecological condition of estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico

This document is intended for use by scientists and other citizens concerned with the ecological condition of estuaries, as well as by managers and lawmakers interested in the sustained use of estuaries for commercial and recreational purposes. It also addresses public concerns about the aesthetic quality of coastal areas vital to tourism and recreation. By producing this report on the ecological condition of estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico, we have taken one step in assessing the health of this environmental resource. We have produced an environmental report card to be used as a guide in the evaluation of management decisions and research directions. This report is organized in three parts: (1) an introduction that gives background information on the Gulf of Mexico, estuarine ecology, and the factors that impact estuaries in the gulf, (2) the main section on priority ecological indicators used to measure the condition of estuaries in the gulf and (3) an ecological report card that summarizes the data on ecological indicators and provides a rating of the condition of estuaries in each gulf state and for gulf estuaries overall. Many of the ratings were based on the percent area of estuaries in each state exhibiting degraded or adverse levels of an indicator.

Ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia: Topic 2 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

In this report we have attempted to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although our initial approach was to rely on published accounts, we quickly realized that the body of published literature deahng with hypoxia was limited, and we would have to conduct our own exploratory analysis of existing Gulf data, or rely on published accounts from other systems to infer possible or potential effects of hypoxia. For the economic analysis, we developed a conceptual model of how hypoxia-related impacts could affect fisheries. Our model included both supply and demand components. The supply model had two components: (1) a physical production function for fish or shrimp, and (2) the cost of fishing. If hypoxia causes the cost of a unit of fishing effort to change, then this will result in a shift in supply. The demand model considered how hypoxia might affect the quality of landed fish or shrimp. In particular, the market value per pound is lower for small shrimp than for large shrimp. Given the limitations of the ecological assessment, the shallow continental shelf area affected by hypoxia does show signs of hypoxia-related stress. While current ecological conditions are a response to a variety of stressors, the effects of hypoxia are most obvious in the benthos that experience mortality, elimination of larger long-lived species, and a shifting of productivity to nonhypoxic periods (energy pulsing). What is not known is whether hypoxia leads to higher productivity during productive periods, or simply to a reduction of productivity during oxygen-stressed periods. The economic assessment based on fisheries data, however, failed to detect effects attributable to hypoxia. Overall, fisheries landings statistics for at least the last few decades have been relatively constant. The failure to identify clear hypoxic effects in the fisheries statistics does not necessarily mean that they are absent. There are several possibilities: (1) hypoxic effects are small relative to the overall variability in the data sets evaluated; (2) the data and the power of the analyses are not adequate; and (3) currently there are no hypoxic effects on fisheries. Lack of identified hypoxic effects in available fisheries data does not imply that effects would not occur should conditions worsen. Experience with other hypoxic zones around the globe shows that both ecological and fisheries effects become progressively more severe as hypoxia increases. Several large systems around the globe have suffered serious ecological and economic consequences from seasonal summertime hypoxia; most notable are the Kattegat and Black Sea. The consequences range from localized loss of catch and recruitment failure to complete system-wide loss of fishery species. If experiences in other systems are applicable to the Gulf of Mexico, then in the face of worsening hypoxic conditions, at some point fisheries and other species will decline, perhaps precipitously.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico: 2011

In August 2011, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft-bottom habitat and overlying waters of the continental shelf in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The original sampling design included 50 randomly selected sites from the Mississippi River delta to the U.S./Mexican border, representing a total area of 111,162 square kilometers; however, vessel failures and inclement weather precluded sampling at 16 sites in the western-most part of the study region. Sampling was completed at the remaining 34 sites in offshore waters between the Mississippi River delta and Freeport, Texas, representing an estimated 75,591 square kilometers. Field sampling followed standard methods and indicators applied in prior NOAA coastal studies and EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA). A key feature adopted from these studies was the incorporation of a random probabilistic sampling design. Such a design provides a basis for making unbiased statistical estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition relative to various measured indicators and corresponding thresholds of concern. Indicators included multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels). Water depths ranged from 13 – 83 m throughout the study area. About 9 % of the area had sediments composed of sands (< 20 % silt+clay), 47 % of the area was composed of intermediate muddy sands (20 – 80 % silt+clay), and 44 % of the sampled area consisted of mud (> 80 % silt+clay). About 50 % of the area (represented by 17 sites) had sediment total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations < 5 mg/g and all of the sites sampled had levels of TOC < 20 mg/g, well below the range associated with potentially harmful effects to benthic fauna (> 50 mg/g). Surface salinities ranged from 23.4 – 36.5 psu, with salinity generally increasing with distance west of the Mississippi River delta. Bottom salinities varied between 31.1 and 36.5 psu, with lowest values occurring at shallow, inner-shelf stations. Surface-water temperatures varied between 29.8 and 31.5 ºC, while near-bottom waters ranged in temperature from 19.4 – 31 ºC. An index of density stratification (Δσt) indicated that portions of coastal shelf waters in the northwestern GOM at the time of this sampling were strongly stratified. Values of Δσt at 19 of the 34 sites sampled in this study (56 % of the study area) ranged from 2.2 to 12.4, which is within the range considered to be indicative of strong vertical stratification (Δσt > 2). Stratification was strongest close to the Mississippi River delta, and decreased with distance west of the delta.

Support for integrated ecosystem assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS): assessment of ecological condition and stressor impacts in subtidal waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve

A study was conducted in June 2009 to assess the current status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks throughout subtidal estuarine waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve (SINERR) along the coast of Georgia. Samples were collected for multiple indicators of ecosystem condition, including water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids, fecal coliform bacteria and coliphages), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundance of benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). Use of a probabilistic sampling design facilitated the calculation of statistics to estimate the spatial extent of the Reserve classified according to various categories (i.e., Good, Fair, Poor) of ecological condition relative to established thresholds of these indicators, where available. Overall, the majority of subtidal habitat in the SINERR appeared to be healthy, with over half (56.7 %) of the Reserve area having water quality, sediment quality, and benthic biological condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. None of the stations sampled had one or more indicators in all three categories rated as poor/degraded. While these results are encouraging, it should be noted that one or more indicators were rated as poor/degraded in at least one of the three categories over 40% of the Reserve study area, represented by 12 of the 30 stations sampled. Although measures of fish tissue chemical contamination were not included in any of the above estimates, a number of trace metals, pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found at low yet detectable levels in some fish at stations where fish were caught. Levels of mercury and total PCBs in some fish specimens fell within EPA guideline values considered safe, given a consumption rate of no more than four fish meals per month. Moreover, PCB congener profiles in sediments and fish in the SINERR exhibit a relative abundance of higher-chlorinated homologs which are uniquely characteristic of Aroclor 1268. It has been well-documented that sediments and fish in the creeks and marshes near the LCP Chemicals Superfund site, near Brunswick, Georgia, also display this congener pattern associated with Aroclor 1268, a highly chlorinated mixture of PCBs used extensively at a chlor-alkali plant that was in operation at the LCP site from 1955-1994. This report provides results suggesting that the protected habitats lying within the boundaries of the SINERR may be experiencing the effects of a legacy of chemical contamination at a site over 40km away. These effects, as well as other potential stressors associated with increased development of nearby coastal areas, underscore the importance of establishing baseline ecological conditions that can be used to track potential changes in the future and to guide management and stewardship of the otherwise relatively unspoiled ecosystems of the SINERR.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida: 2007

A study was initiated with field work in May 2007 to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida, focusing on soft-bottom habitats, and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Anclote Key on the western coast of Florida to West Palm Beach on the eastern coast of Florida, inclusive of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). The study was conducted through a large cooperative effort by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), EPA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, FKNMS, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). The majority of the South Florida shelf had high levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of “good” water quality.. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at 98.8% throughout the coastal-ocean survey area. Only 1.2% of the region had moderate DO levels (2-5 mg/L) and no part of the survey area had DO <2.0 mg/L. In addition, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of total suspended solids (TSS), nutrients, and chlorophyll a indicative of oligotrophic conditions. Results suggested good sediment quality as well. Sediments throughout the region, which ranged from sands to intermediate muddy sands, had low levels of total organic carbon (TOC) below bioeffect guidelines for benthic organisms. Chemical contaminants in sediments were also mostly at low, background levels. For example, none of the stations had chemicals in excess of corresponding Effects-Range Median (ERM) probable bioeffect values or more than one chemical in excess of lower-threshold Effects-Range Low (ERL) values. Cadmium was the only chemical that occurred at moderate concentrations between corresponding ERL and ERM values. Sixty fish samples from 28 stations were collected and analyzed for chemical contaminants. Eleven of these samples (39% of sites) had moderate levels of contaminants, between lower and upper non-cancer human-health thresholds, and ten (36% of sites) had high levels of contaminants above the upper threshold.