Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Diaspore traits discriminate good from weak colonisers on high elevation summits

The richness of plant species in Swiss alpine-nival summits increased during the climate warming of the 20th century. Thirty-seven summits (2797-3418 m a.s.l.) with both old (~1900-1920) and recent (~2000) plant inventories were used to test whether biological species traits can explain the observed rates of summit colonisation. Species were classified into two groups: good colonisers (colonising five or more summits) and weak colonisers (fewer than five new summits). We compared species traits related to growth, reproduction and dispersal between these two groups and between the good colonisers and a group of high alpine grassland species. The observed colonisation pattern was subsequently compared to a simulated random colonisation pattern. The distribution of new species on the summits was not random, and 16 species exhibited a colonisation rate higher than expected by chance. Taraxacum alpinum aggr. and Cardamine resedifolia were the best colonisers. Results showed that diaspore traits enhancing long-distance dispersal were more frequent among good colonisers than among weak colonisers. Good colonisers were mostly characterised by pappi or narrow wings on their diaspores. Both groups were able to grow on soils more bare and rocky than species from the alpine grasslands. All other biological traits that we considered were similar among the three alpine species groups. These results are important for improving predictive models of species distribution under climate change

Ab initio absorption spectrum of NiO combining molecular dynamics with the embedded cluster approach in a discrete reaction field

We developed a procedure that combines three complementary computational methodologies to improve the theoretical description of the electronic structure of nickel oxide. The starting point is a Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics simulation to incorporate vibrorotational degrees of freedom into the material model. By means ofcomplete active space self-consistent field second-order perturbation theory (CASPT2) calculations on embedded clusters extracted from the resulting trajectory, we describe localized spectroscopic phenomena on NiO with an efficient treatment of electron correlation. The inclusion of thermal motion into the theoretical description allowsus to study electronic transitions that, otherwise, would be dipole forbidden in the ideal structure and results in a natural reproduction of the band broadening. Moreover, we improved the embedded cluster model by incorporating self-consistently at the complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) level a discrete (or direct) reaction field (DRF) in the cluster surroundings. The DRF approach offers an efficient treatment ofelectric response effects of the crystalline embedding to the electronic transitions localized in the cluster. We offer accurate theoretical estimates of the absorption spectrum and the density of states around the Fermi level of NiO, and a comprehensive explanation of the source of the broadening and the relaxation of the charge transferstates due to the adaptation of the environment

Corticosterone regulates multiple colour traits in Lacerta [Zootoca] vivipara males.

Ornamental colours usually evolve as honest signals of quality, which is supported by the fact that they frequently depend on individual condition. It has generally been suggested that some, but not all types of ornamental colours are condition dependent, indicating that different evolutionary mechanisms underlie the evolution of multiple types of ornamental colours even when these are exhibited by the same species. Stress hormones, which negatively affect condition, have been shown to affect colour traits based on different pigments and structures, suggesting that they mediate condition dependence of multiple ornament types both among and within individuals. However, studies investigating effects of stress hormones on different ornament types within individuals are lacking, and thus, evidence for this hypothesis is scant. Here, we investigated whether corticosterone mediates condition dependence of multiple ornaments by manipulating corticosterone levels and body condition (via food availability) using a two-factorial design and by assessing their effect on multiple colour traits in male common lizards. Corticosterone negatively affected ventral melanin- and carotenoid-based coloration, whereas food availability did not affect coloration, despite its significant effect on body condition. The corticosterone effect on melanin- and carotenoid-based coloration demonstrates the condition dependence of both ornaments. Moreover, corticosterone affected ventral coloration and had no effect on the nonsexually selected dorsal coloration, showing specific effects of corticosterone on ornamental ventral colours. This suggests that corticosterone simultaneously mediates condition dependence of multiple colour traits and that it therefore accounts for covariation among them, which may influence their evolution via correlational selection.

Plant traits co-vary with altitude in grasslands and forests in the European Alps

Biological traits that are advantageous under specific ecological conditions should be present in a large proportion of the species within an ecosystem, where those specific conditions prevail. As climatic conditions change, the frequency of certain traits in plant communities is expected to change with increasing altitude. We examined patterns of change for 13 traits in 120 exhaustive inventories of plants along five altitudinal transects (520-3100 m a.s.l.) in grasslands and in forests in western Switzerland. The traits selected for study represented the occupation of space, photosynthesis, reproduction and dispersal. For each plot, the mean trait values or the proportions of the trait states were weighted by species cover and examined in relation to the first axis of a PCA based on local climatic conditions. With increasing altitude in grasslands, we observed a decrease in anemophily and an increase in entomophily complemented by possible selfing; a decrease in diaspores with appendages adapted to ectozoochory, linked to a decrease in achenes and an increase in capsules. In lowlands, pollination and dispersal are ensured by wind and animals. However, with increasing altitude, insects are mostly responsible for pollination, and wind becomes the main natural dispersal vector. Some traits showed a particularly marked change in the alpine belt (e.g., the increase of capsules and the decrease of achenes), confirming that this belt concentrates particularly stressful conditions to plant growth and reproduction (e.g. cold, short growing season) that constrain plants to a limited number of strategies. One adaptation to this stress is to limit investment in dispersal by producing capsules with numerous, tiny seeds that have appendages limited to narrow wings. Forests displayed many of the trends observed in grasslands but with a reduced variability that is likely due to a shorter altitudinal gradient.

Histoire du dix-neuvième siècle depuis les traités de Vienne. Tome 4 / G. G. Gervinus,... ; traduit de l'allemand par J.-F. Minssen,...

Collection : Collection d'historiens contemporains

Histoire du dix-neuvième siècle depuis les traités de Vienne. Tome 11 / G. G. Gervinus,... ; traduit de l'allemand par J.-F. Minssen,...

Collection : Collection d'historiens contemporains

Histoire du dix-neuvième siècle depuis les traités de Vienne. Tome 12 / G. G. Gervinus,... ; traduit de l'allemand par J.-F. Minssen,...

Collection : Collection d'historiens contemporains

Histoire du dix-neuvième siècle depuis les traités de Vienne. Tome 19 / G. G. Gervinus,... ; traduit de l'allemand par J.-F. Minssen,...

Collection : Collection d'historiens contemporains

Histoire du dix-neuvième siècle depuis les traités de Vienne. Tome 17 / G. G. Gervinus,... ; traduit de l'allemand par J.-F. Minssen,...

Collection : Collection d'historiens contemporains

Histoire du dix-neuvième siècle depuis les traités de Vienne. Tome 1 / G. G. Gervinus,... ; traduit de l'allemand par J.-F. Minssen,...

Collection : Collection d'historiens contemporains

Personality traits and virtual reality performance.

BACKGROUND: Surgeons' personalities have been described as different from those of the general population, but this was based on small descriptive studies limited by the choice of evaluation instrument. Furthermore, although the importance of the human factor in team performance has been recognized, the effect of personality traits on technical performance is unknown. This study aimed to compare surgical residents' personality traits with those of the general population and to evaluate whether an association exists between their personality traits and technical performance using a virtual reality (VR) laparoscopy simulator. METHODS: In this study, 95 participants (54 residents with basic, 29 with intermediate laparoscopic experience, and 12 students) underwent personality assessment using the NEO-Five Factor Inventory and performed five VR tasks of the Lap Mentor? basic tasks module. The residents' personality traits were compared with those of the general population, and the association between VR performance and personality traits was investigated. RESULTS: Surgical residents showed personality traits different from those of the general population, demonstrating lower neuroticism, higher extraversion and conscientiousness, and male residents showed greater openness. In the multivariable analysis, adjusted for gender and surgical experience, none of the personality traits was found to be an independent predictor of technical performance. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical residents present distinct personality traits that differ from those of the general population. These traits were not found to be associated with technical performance in a virtual environment. The traits may, however, play an important role in team performance, which in turn is highly relevant for optimal surgical performance.

Histoire du dix-neuvième siècle depuis les traités de Vienne. Tome 7 / G. G. Gervinus,... ; traduit de l'allemand par J.-F. Minssen,...

Collection : Collection d'historiens contemporains