Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Computational methods for prediction of T-cell epitopes - a framework for modelling, testing, and applications

Computational models complement laboratory experimentation for efficient identification of MHC-binding peptides and T-cell epitopes. Methods for prediction of MHC-binding peptides include binding motifs, quantitative matrices, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, and molecular modelling. Models derived by these methods have been successfully used for prediction of T-cell epitopes in cancer, autoimmunity, infectious disease, and allergy. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures and performed according to strict standards. This requires careful selection of data for model building, and adequate testing and validation. A range of web-based databases and MHC-binding prediction programs are available. Although some available prediction programs for particular MHC alleles have reasonable accuracy, there is no guarantee that all models produce good quality predictions. In this article, we present and discuss a framework for modelling, testing, and applications of computational methods used in predictions of T-cell epitopes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Digital image analysis to standardize a photometric method in colorimetric quantification

Techniques applying digital images increasingly have been used in biology, medicine, physics, and other research areas. The image coordinates can represent light intensities values to be detected by a CCD. Based on this concept, a photometric system composed of a LED source and a digital camera as a detector was used for optical density measurements. Standards for permanganate, glucose, and protein solutions were detemined by colorimetric methods using our device. Samples of protein of Pasteurella mutocida bacteria membrane and, also, fractions of rabbit kidney membrane, rich in Na, K-ATPase, with unknown concentrations were dosed through the Hartree method using our photometric system.

Australia-wide predictions of soil properties using decision trees

This paper describes the construction of Australia-wide soil property predictions from a compiled national soils point database. Those properties considered include pH, organic carbon, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, thickness. texture, and clay content. Many of these soil properties are used directly in environmental process modelling including global climate change models. Models are constructed at the 250-m resolution using decision trees. These relate the soil property to the environment through a suite of environmental predictors at the locations where measurements are observed. These models are then used to extend predictions to the continental extent by applying the rules derived to the exhaustively available environmental predictors. The methodology and performance is described in detail for pH and summarized for other properties. Environmental variables are found to be important predictors, even at the 250-m resolution at which they are available here as they can describe the broad changes in soil property.

Numerical modelling of chemical effects of magma solidification problems in porous rocks

The solidification of intruded magma in porous rocks can result in the following two consequences: (1) the heat release due to the solidification of the interface between the rock and intruded magma and (2) the mass release of the volatile fluids in the region where the intruded magma is solidified into the rock. Traditionally, the intruded magma solidification problem is treated as a moving interface (i.e. the solidification interface between the rock and intruded magma) problem to consider these consequences in conventional numerical methods. This paper presents an alternative new approach to simulate thermal and chemical consequences/effects of magma intrusion in geological systems, which are composed of porous rocks. In the proposed new approach and algorithm, the original magma solidification problem with a moving boundary between the rock and intruded magma is transformed into a new problem without the moving boundary but with the proposed mass source and physically equivalent heat source. The major advantage in using the proposed equivalent algorithm is that a fixed mesh of finite elements with a variable integration time-step can be employed to simulate the consequences and effects of the intruded magma solidification using the conventional finite element method. The correctness and usefulness of the proposed equivalent algorithm have been demonstrated by a benchmark magma solidification problem. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Immunoexpression of adrenergic receptors in detrusor from patients with prune belly syndrome: a digital quantification

Introduction: Prune belly syndrome (PBS) presents with large-capacity bladders, high compliance and post-void residual volumes. Operative and conservative treatments are controversial. When histologically compared to normal bladder, bladder outlet obstruction results in an up- or down-regulation of adrenoceptors. Our goal was to study the immunoexpression of adrenoceptors in detrusor from patients with PBS. Materials and methods: Bladder domes from PBS patients (n = 14) were studied (PBG). For normal controls, bladder specimens were obtained at adult surgery (n = 13) (CG1) and at child autopsy (n = 5) (CG2). Staining was performed using antibodies to alpha 1a, alpha 1b, alpha 1d and beta 3 adrenoceptors. Five to 10 images were captured on an optic microscope with a digital camera and analysed with Photoshop(R). The immunocyhistochemical index with arbitrary units was calculated and compared. Results: Mean age was 1.28, 64 and 1.41 years for PBG, CG1 and CG2, respectively. The immunohistochemical index with arbitrary units of alpha 1a receptors was 0.06 in PBG, 0.16 in CG1 and 0.14 in CG2 (p = 0.008); of alpha 1b 0.06, 0.06 and 0.07 (p = 0.781); and of alpha 1d 0.04, 0.04 and 0.05 (p = 0.618). Regarding beta 3 the respective values were 0.07, 0.14 and 0.10 (p = 0.378). Conclusion: Our results show a decrease in ala-adrenoceptor immunostaining intensity in detrusor from children with PBS. Further in vitro studies are needed to determine whether these observations are physiologically significant. (C) 2009 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling of species in hood fires by conditional moment closure

Carbon monoxide, the chief killer in fires, and other species are modelled for a series of enclosure fires. The conditions emulate building fires where CO is formed in the rich, turbulent, nonpremixed flame and is transported frozen to lean mixtures by the ceiling jet which is cooled by radiation and dilution. Conditional moment closure modelling is used and computational domain minimisation criteria are developed which reduce the computational cost of this method. The predictions give good agreement for CO and other species in the lean, quenched-gas stream, holding promise that this method may provide a practical means of modelling real, three-dimensional fire situations. (c) 2005 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experiments and modelling of phenanthrene biodegradation in the aqueous phase by a mixed culture

Pollution by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) is widespread due to unsuitable disposal of industrial waste. They are mostly defined as priority pollutants by environmental protection authorities worldwide. Phenanthrene, a typical PAH, was selected as the target in this paper. The PAH-degrading mixed culture, named ZM, was collected from a petroleum contaminated river bed. This culture was injected into phenanthrene solutions at different concentrations to quantify the biodegradation process. Results show near-complete removal of phenanthrene in three days of biodegradation if the initial phenanthrene concentration is low. When the initial concentration is high, the removal rate is increased but 20%-40% of the phenanthrene remains at the end of the experiment. The biomass shows a peak on the third day due to the combined effects of microbial growth and decay. Another peak is evident for cases with a high initial concentration, possibly due to production of an intermediate metabolite. The pH generally decreased during biodegradation because of the production of organic acid. Two phenomenological models were designed to simulate the phenanthrene biodegradation and biomass growth. A relatively simple model that does not consider the intermediate metabolite and its inhibition of phenanthrene biodegradation cannot fit the observed data. A modified Monod model that considered an intermediate metabolite (organic acid) and its inhibiting reversal effect reasonably depicts the experimental results.

Diel vertical migration: Modelling light-mediated mechanisms

Light is generally regarded as the most likely cue used by zooplankton to regulate their vertical movements through the water column. However, the way in which light is used by zooplankton as a cue is not well understood. In this paper we present a mathematical model of diel vertical migration which produces vertical distributions of zooplankton that vary in space and time. The model is used to predict the patterns of vertical distribution which result when animals are assumed to adopt one of three commonly proposed mechanisms for vertical swimming. First, we assume zooplankton tend to swim towards a preferred intensity of light. We then assume zooplankton swim in response to either the rate of change in light intensity or the relative rate of change in light intensity. The model predicts that for all three mechanisms movement is fastest at sunset and sunrise and populations are primarily influenced by eddy diffusion at night in the absence of a light stimulus. Daytime patterns of vertical distribution differ between the three mechanisms and the reasons for the predicted differences are discussed. Swimming responses to properties of the light field are shown to be adequate for describing diel vertical migration where animals congregate in near surface waters during the evening and reside at deeper depths during the day. However, the model is unable to explain how some populations halt their ascent before reaching surface waters or how populations re-congregate in surface waters a few hours before sunrise, a phenomenon which is sometimes observed in the held. The model results indicate that other exogenous or endogenous factors besides light may play important roles in regulating vertical movement.

Digital vasculitis in systemic lupus erythematosus: a minor manifestation of disease activity?

The objective of this study is to determine if digital vasculitis (DV), a clinical manifestation with a high systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index (SLEDAI) score, is associated with lupus severity. DV and other clinical manifestations defined according to the SLEDAI were evaluated in 168 consecutive patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Two groups were defined according to presence (DV+, n = 27) or absence of DV (DV-, n = 141) at the time of evaluation. The exclusion criterion was the presence of antiphospholipid syndrome (Sapporo`s criteria). The two groups were comparable with regard to age (P = 0.09), gender (P = 1.00), white race (P = 0.81), and disease duration (P = 0.78). Compared to the DV-group, the DV+ group had a significantly higher frequency of mucocutaneous manifestations (66.7 vs. 39.0%, P = 0.01), haematological abnormalities (22.2 vs. 6.4%, P = 0.02) and constitutional symptoms (11.1 vs. 0.7%, P = 0.01). Renal and neurological involvements were similar in both groups ( P = 0.57 and P = 1.00, respectively). The evaluation of each SLEDAI parameter confirmed that the DV+ group had higher frequencies of mild manifestations, such as new rash (P = 0.02), alopecia (P = 0.02), oral ulcers (P = 0.045), fever (P = 0.01) and leucopenia (P = 0.005). In contrast, both groups had similarly increased anti-dsDNA (P = 0.78) and decreased complement levels (P = 0.29). In conclusion, DV in patients with SLE identifies a subgroup of a mild disease. The high `weighted` index attributed to this alteration in the SLEDAI score should therefore be revised. Lupus (2009) 18, 990-993.

Modelling of cold-formed purlin-sheeting systems .1. Full model

Purlin-sheeting systems used for roofs and walls commonly take the form of cold-formed channel or zed section purlins, screw-connected to corrugated sheeting. These purlin-sheeting systems have been the subject of numerous theoretical and experimental investigations over the past three decades, but the complexity of the systems has led to great difficulty in developing a sound and general model. This paper presents a non-linear elasto-plastic finite element model, capable of predicting the behaviour of purlin-sheeting systems without the need for either experimental input or over simplifying assumptions. The model incorporates both the sheeting and the purlin, and is able to account for cross-sectional distortion of the purlin, the flexural and membrane restraining effects of the sheeting, and failure of the purlin by local buckling or yielding. The validity of the model is shown by its good correlation with experimental results. A simplified version of this model, which is more suitable for use in a design environment, is presented in a companion paper. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Modelling of cold-formed purlin-sheeting systems .2. Simplified model

A number of theoretical and experimental investigations have been made into the nature of purlin-sheeting systems over the past 30 years. These systems commonly consist of cold-formed zed or channel section purlins, connected to corrugated sheeting. They have proven difficult to model due to the complexity of both the purlin deformation and the restraint provided to the purlin by the sheeting. Part 1 of this paper presented a non-linear elasto plastic finite element model which, by incorporating both the purlin and the sheeting in the analysis, allowed the interaction between the two components of the system to be modelled. This paper presents a simplified version of the first model which has considerably decreased requirements in terms of computer memory, running time and data preparation. The Simplified Model includes only the purlin but allows for the sheeting's shear and rotational restraints by modelling these effects as springs located at the purlin-sheeting connections. Two accompanying programs determine the stiffness of these springs numerically. As in the Full Model, the Simplified Model is able to account for the cross-sectional distortion of the purlin, the shear and rotational restraining effects of the sheeting, and failure of the purlin by local buckling or yielding. The model requires no experimental or empirical input and its validity is shown by its goon con elation with experimental results. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.