813 resultados para decision-making, decision modelling, value of information
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Mode of access: Internet.
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"AD-260 734."
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06
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Professional English football combines publicly traded ownership shares with an active and observable wagering market. This article utilizes the information from these markets, presenting a model that may be used to estimate the impact of matches on club values. Such information is potentially useful as clubs assess the values of players and coaches based on their anticipated contributions to team performance. The article also illustrates the modelling of ‘binomial events,’ such as win/lose, hire/do not hire or approval/disapproval, and how market-determined price responses illuminate expectations.
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The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent for conservation purposes on actions such as the acquisition and management of land, the rehabilitation of degraded habitats, and the purchase of easements from private landowners. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We use a modelling framework to explore this issue with a study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for conservation. We apply our model to simulated data using distributions taken from real data to simulate the cost of patches and the rarity and co-occurence of species. In our model each agent attempted to implement a conservation network that met its target for the minimum cost using the conservation planning software Marxan. We examine three scenarios where the conservation targets of the agents differ. The first scenario (called NGO-NGO) models the situation where two NGOs are both are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios (called NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO, respectively) represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing all species, while an NGO is focused on achieving additional protection for the most endangered species. For each of these scenarios we examined three types of interactions between agents: i) acting in isolation where the agents are attempting to achieve their targets solely though their own actions ii) sharing information where each agent is aware of the species representation achieved within the other agent’s conservation network and, iii) pooling resources where agents combine their resources and undertake conservation actions as a single entity. The latter two interactions represent different types of collaborations and in each scenario we determine the cost savings from sharing information or pooling resources. In each case we examined the utility of these interactions from the viewpoint of the combined conservation network resulting from both agents' actions, as well as from each agent’s individual perspective. The costs for each agent to achieve their objectives varied depending on the order in which the agents acted, the type of interaction between agents, and the specific goals of each agent. There were significant cost savings from increased collaboration via sharing information in the NGO-NGO scenario were the agent’s representation goals were mutually exclusive (in terms of specie targeted). In the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios, collaboration generated much smaller savings. If the two agents collaborate by pooling resources there are multiple ways the total cost could be shared between both agents. For each scenario we investigate the costs and benefits for all possible cost sharing proportions. We find that there are a range of cost sharing proportions where both agents can benefit in the NGO-NGO scenarios while the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios again showed little benefit. Although the model presented here has a range of simplifying assumptions, it demonstrates that the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. The model demonstrates a method for determining the range of collaboration costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.
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The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent on conservation interventions. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We explore this issue with a simulation study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for the conservation of multiple species using three scenarios comprising either divergent or partially overlapping objectives between the agents. The first scenario investigates the situation where both agents are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing 200 species, while a non-government organisation is focused on achieving additional protection for the ten rarest species. Simulated input data was generated using distributions taken from real data to model the cost of parcels, and the rarity and co-occurrence of species. We investigated three types of collaborative interactions between agents: acting in isolation, sharing information and pooling resources with the third option resulting in the agents combining their resources and effectively acting as a single entity. In each scenario we determine the cost savings when an agent moves from acting in isolation to either sharing information or pooling resources with the other agent. The model demonstrates how the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. Our model demonstrates a method for determining the range of costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.
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Methodologies for understanding business processes and their information systems (IS) are often criticized, either for being too imprecise and philosophical (a criticism often levied at softer methodologies) or too hierarchical and mechanistic (levied at harder methodologies). The process-oriented holonic modelling methodology combines aspects of softer and harder approaches to aid modellers in designing business processes and associated IS. The methodology uses holistic thinking and a construct known as the holon to build process descriptions into a set of models known as a holarchy. This paper describes the methodology through an action research case study based in a large design and manufacturing organization. The scientific contribution is a methodology for analysing business processes in environments that are characterized by high complexity, low volume and high variety where there are minimal repeated learning opportunities, such as large IS development projects. The practical deliverables from the project gave IS and business process improvements for the case study company.
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This article describes the approach, which allows to develop information systems without taking into consideration details of physical storage of the relational model and type database management system. Described in terms of graph model, this approach allows to construct several algorithms, for example, for verification application domain. This theory was introduced into operation testing as a part of CASE-system METAS.
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In the agrifood sector, the explosive increase in information about environmental sustainability, often in uncoordinated information systems, has created a new form of ignorance ('meta-ignorance') that diminishes the effectiveness of information on decision-makers. Flows of information are governed by informal and formal social arrangements that we can collectively call Informational Institutions. In this paper, we have reviewed the recent literature on such institutions. From the perspectives of information theory and new institutional economics, current informational institutions are increasing the information entropy of communications concerning environmental sustainability and stakeholders' transaction costs of using relevant information. In our view this reduces the effectiveness of informational governance. Future research on informational governance should explicitly address these aspects.