Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.

FtsH2 and FtsH5: two homologous subunits use different integration mechanisms leading to the same thylakoid multimeric complex

P>The Arabidopsis thylakoid FtsH protease complex is composed of FtsH1/FtsH5 (type A) and FtsH2/FtsH8 (type B) subunits. Type A and type B subunits display a high degree of sequence identity throughout their mature domains, but no similarity in their amino-terminal targeting peptide regions. In chloroplast import assays, FtsH2 and FtsH5 were imported and subsequently integrated into thylakoids by a two-step processing mechanism that resulted in an amino-proximal lumenal domain, a single transmembrane anchor, and a carboxyl proximal stromal domain. FtsH2 integration into washed thylakoids was entirely dependent on the proton gradient, whereas FtsH5 integration was dependent on NTPs, suggesting their integration by Tat and Sec pathways, respectively. This finding was corroborated by in organello competition and by antibody inhibition experiments. A series of constructs were made in order to understand the molecular basis for different integration pathways. The amino proximal domains through the transmembrane anchors were sufficient for proper integration as demonstrated with carboxyl-truncated versions of FtsH2 and FtsH5. The mature FtsH2 protein was found to be incompatible with the Sec machinery as determined with targeting peptide-swapping experiments. Incompatibility does not appear to be determined by any specific element in the FtsH2 domain as no single domain was incompatible with Sec transport. This suggests an incompatible structure that requires the intact FtsH2. That the highly homologous type A and type B subunits of the same multimeric complex use different integration pathways is a striking example of the notion that membrane insertion pathways have evolved to accommodate structural features of their respective substrates.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Tillering dynamics in palisadegrass swards continuously stocked by cattle

Plant communities on pastures adapt to varying frequencies and severities of defoliation through mechanisms capable of ensuring their longevity and photosynthetic efficiency. The objective of this experiment was to evaluate tiller population density, demographic patterns of tillering and population stability of palisadegrass swards subjected to four grazing intensities. Treatments corresponded to four sward steady state conditions (sward heights of 10, 20, 30 and 40 cm) generated by continuous stocking. Measurements of tiller population density and population dynamics were performed at 4 week intervals and the results were used to calculate tiller appearance, death and survival rates. Tiller appearance and death rate were used to calculate sward stability index. The results indicate that keeping swards low (10 cm or lower) may be prejudicial to persistency and productivity of palisadegrass. The results also indicate that a low tiller population alone should not be considered as an indicator of loss of productive potential and of reduced plant persistency, since swards may be stable even with low population of tillers.

Factors affecting fertilisation and early embryo quality in single- and superovulated dairy cattle

Data on fertilisation and embryo quality in dairy cattle are presented and the main factors responsible for the low fertility of single-ovulating lactating cows and embryo yield in superovulated dairy cattle are highlighted. During the past 50 years, the fertility in high-producing lactating dairy cattle has decreased as milk production increased. Recent data show conception rates to first service to be approximately 32% in lactating cows, whereas in heifers it has remained above 50%. Fertilisation does not seem to be the principal factor responsible for the low fertility in single-ovulating cows, because it has remained above 80%. Conversely, early embryonic development is impaired in high-producing dairy cows, as observed by most embryonic losses occurring during the first week after fertilisation. However, in superovulated dairy cattle, although fertilisation failure is more pronounced, averaging approximately 45%, the percentage of fertilised embryos viable at 1 week is quite high (>70%). Among the multifactorial causes of low fertility in lactating dairy cows, high feed intake associated with low concentrations of circulating steroids may contribute substantially to reduced embryo quality. Fertilisation failure in superovulated cattle may be a consequence of inappropriate gamete transport due to hormonal imbalances.

Cattle Grazing Distribution and Efficacy of Strategic Mineral Mix Placement in Tropical Brazilian Pastures

A study was conducted in Brazil to identify factors affecting grazing distribution of yearling Nelore cross heifers and to evaluate the efficacy of placement of a salt-mineral mix away from water to improve uniformity of grazing. Two pastures (25 ha and 42 ha) were evaluated for four 15-d sessions. Mineral mix was placed 590 m to 780 m from water during two sessions and at water for two sessions. Stubble heights were measured at the beginning and end of each session in 1-ha subunits of each pasture. Cattle locations were recorded oil clay 13 and 14 of each session by horseback observers. Heifers avoided areas with a preponderance of forbs and taller grass (P < 0.001). For the first 15 days of the study cattle avoided subunits farther from water. Thereafter, horizontal distance from water had no affect on grazing use (P > 0.10). Stubble height reduction was more uniform (P < 0.05) when the mineral mix was Lit water compared to away from water. In contrast, heifers spent less time farther from water when Mineral mix was placed at water (P = 0.02) based Oil Visual observations. Strategic placement of a salt-mineral mix away from water does not appear to be a reliable tool to improve cattle grazing distribution in humid tropical pastures from 25 ha to 45 ha in size.

Immunological responses and cytokine gene expression analysis to Cooperia punctata infections in resistant and susceptible Nelore cattle

Cellular and humoral immune response, as well as cytokine gene expression, was assessed in Nelore cattle with different degrees of resistance to Cooperia punctata natural infection. One hundred cattle (male, weaned, 11-12 months old), kept together on pasture, were evaluated. Faecal and blood samples were collected for parasitological and immunological assays. Based on nematode faecal egg counts (FEC) and worm burden, the seven most resistant and the eight most susceptible animals were selected. Tissue samples of the small intestine were collected for histological quantification of inflammatory cells and analysis of cytokine gene expression (IL-2, IL-4, IL-8, IL-1 2p35, IL-13, TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, MCP-1, MCP-2, and MUC- 1) using real-time RT-PCR. Mucus samples were also collected for IgA levels determination. Serum IgG1 mean levels against C. punctata antigens were higher in the resistant group, but significant differences between groups were only observed 14 days after the beginning of the experiment against infective larvae (1-3) and 14 and 84 days against adult antigens. The resistant group also presented higher IgA levels against C. punctata (L3 and adult) antigens with significant difference 14 days after the beginning of the trial (P < 0.05). In the small-intestine mucosa, levels of IgA anti-L3 and anti-adult C. punctata were higher in the resistant group, compared with the susceptible group (P < 0.05). Gene expression of both T(H)2 cytokines (IL-4 and IL-13) in the resistant group and T(H)1 cytokines (IL-2, IL-1 2p35, IFN-gamma and MCP-1) in the susceptible group was up-regulated. Such results suggested that immune response to C. punctata was probably mediated by TH2 cytokines in the resistant group and by T(H)1 cytokines in the susceptible group. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproductive cycles in Bos indicus cattle

Several studies using transrectal ovarian ultrasonic scanning in Bos taurus (B. taurus) cattle and more recently in Bos indicus (B. Indicus) females evaluated the reproductive cycles of heifers and cows under different conditions. In general, B. indicus cattle have more follicles and more follicular waves during the estrous cycle and ovulate from smaller follicles than B. taurus. Consequently B. indicus females have smaller corpora lutea and it is assumed circulating concentrations of estradiol and progesterone are also less. However, these findings may vary depending on the nutritional status and regimen in which the animals are managed. Moreover, there are significant differences between B. taurus and B. indicus regarding follicle size at the time of deviation of the dominant follicle. These differences in ovarian function between B. indicus and B. taurus, e.g. greater antral follicle population are, probably, the main reasons for the great success of in vitro embryo production programs in Zebu cattle, especially in Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cattle depredation by puma (Puma concolor) and jaguar (Panthera onca) in central-western Brazil

In this study, data on cattle depredation by puma (Puma concolor) and jaguar (Panthera onca) were recorded for six years (1998 - 2003) in a cattle ranch in central-western Brazil. Depredation represented 18.9% of the overall cattle mortality, being predominant on calves. in biomass, kills represented 0.4% (63.8 kg/km(2)) of the ranch`s annual stock. in economic loss, kills represented 0.3% of the cattle stock value. Depredation was mainly associated with cattle`s age class and location along with the time of birth of calves. The proportion of pastures next to forest with depredation (n=33, 48.5%) was not distinguished to the proportion of pastures not bordering forest with depredation (n=35, 51.5%). However, the proportion of pastures next to forest with depredation represented 54% (n=33) of the 61 total pastures that were at least partially surrounded by forest patches or riparian forests that comprised eight continuum blocks of forest fragments of different sizes in the ranch and adjacent areas. No kills occurred in the central portion (main house) of the farm, close to the headquarters where the pastures not bordering forest. The distances of the kills in relation to areas of native forest was 1317.48 +/- 941.03 m. In order to reduce depredation, calves should be kept as far as possible from forest areas and concentrated cattle breeding and calving seasons should be encouraged. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of seedless watermelon

The research was developed in Fortaleza, CE (latitude 3 degrees 43`S, longitude of 38 degrees 32`W and altitude of 19.5 m). It aimed to determine the Evapotranspiration and the crop coefficients for the different stadiums of seedless watermelon (Citrullus lanatus, Schrad), using the water balance method in drainage lysimeter. The experimental unit consisted of four located drainage lysimeter in an area of 600 m(2). The culture Evapotranspiration (ETc) was determined by the method of the water balance, in a volume of soil control with depth of 0.45 m, whose humidity was monitored by tensiometers. The reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated by the method of the class A pan. The crop coefficients were obtained from the rate between ETc and ETo in the different stages. The ETc presented growing values from the vegetative stage to the fruiting stage, dropping straight away in the mature stage. The maximum value of kc was observed in the fruiting stage.

Adapting the CROPGRO perennial forage model to predict growth of Brachiaria brizantha

Warm-season grasses are economically important for cattle production in tropical regions, and tools to aid in management and research of these forages would be highly beneficial. Crop simulation models synthesize numerous physiological processes and are important research tools for evaluating production of warm-season grasses. This research was conducted to adapt the perennial CROPGRO Forage model to simulate growth of the tropical species palisadegrass [Brachiaria brizantha (A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. Xaraes] and to describe model adaptation for this species. In order to develop the CROPGRO parameters for this species, we began with values and relationships reported in the literature. Some parameters and relationships were calibrated by comparison with observed growth, development, dry matter accumulation and partitioning during a 2-year experiment with Xaraes palisadegrass in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Starting with parameters for the bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flugge) perennial forage model, dormancy effects had to be minimized, and partitioning to storage tissue/root decreased, and partitioning to leaf and stem increased to provide for more leaf and stem growth and less root. Parameters affecting specific leaf area (SLA) and senescence of plant tissues were improved. After these changes were made to the model, biomass accumulation was better simulated, mean predicted herbage yield per cycle was 3573 kg ha(-1), with a RMSE of 538 kg DM ha(-1) (D-Stat = 0.838, simulated/observed ratio = 1.028). The results of the adaptation suggest that the CROPGRO model is an efficient tool to integrate physiological aspects of palisadegrass and can be used to simulate growth. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.