Numerical methods for second-order stochastic differential equations

We seek numerical methods for second‐order stochastic differential equations that reproduce the stationary density accurately for all values of damping. A complete analysis is possible for scalar linear second‐order equations (damped harmonic oscillators with additive noise), where the statistics are Gaussian and can be calculated exactly in the continuous‐time and discrete‐time cases. A matrix equation is given for the stationary variances and correlation for methods using one Gaussian random variable per timestep. The only Runge–Kutta method with a nonsingular tableau matrix that gives the exact steady state density for all values of damping is the implicit midpoint rule. Numerical experiments, comparing the implicit midpoint rule with Heun and leapfrog methods on nonlinear equations with additive or multiplicative noise, produce behavior similar to the linear case.

The promise of computational journalism

Computational journalism involves the application of software and technologies to the activities of journalism, and it draws from the fields of computer science, the social sciences, and media and communications. New technologies may enhance the traditional aims of journalism, or may initiate greater interaction between journalists and information and communication technology (ICT) specialists. The enhanced use of computing in news production is related in particular to three factors: larger government data sets becoming more widely available; the increasingly sophisticated and ubiquitous nature of software; and the developing digital economy. Drawing upon international examples, this paper argues that computational journalism techniques may provide new foundations for original investigative journalism and increase the scope for new forms of interaction with readers. Computer journalism provides a major opportunity to enhance the delivery of original investigative journalism, and to attract and retain readers online.

Computational approaches for modelling intrinsic noise and delays in genetic regulatory networks

This chapter focuses on the interactions and roles between delays and intrinsic noise effects within cellular pathways and regulatory networks. We address these aspects by focusing on genetic regulatory networks that share a common network motif, namely the negative feedback loop, leading to oscillatory gene expression and protein levels. In this context, we discuss computational simulation algorithms for addressing the interplay of delays and noise within the signaling pathways based on biological data. We address implementational issues associated with efficiency and robustness. In a molecular biology setting we present two case studies of temporal models for the Hes1 gene (Monk, 2003; Hirata et al., 2002), known to act as a molecular clock, and the Her1/Her7 regulatory system controlling the periodic somite segmentation in vertebrate embryos (Giudicelli and Lewis, 2004; Horikawa et al., 2006).

Advanced Computational Intelligence System for inverse aeronautical design optimisation

Abstract—Computational Intelligence Systems (CIS) is one of advanced softwares. CIS has been important position for solving single-objective / reverse / inverse and multi-objective design problems in engineering. The paper hybridise a CIS for optimisation with the concept of Nash-Equilibrium as an optimisation pre-conditioner to accelerate the optimisation process. The hybridised CIS (Hybrid Intelligence System) coupled to the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) tool and one type of Computer Aided Design(CAD) system; GiD is applied to solve an inverse engineering design problem; reconstruction of High Lift Systems (HLS). Numerical results obtained by the hybridised CIS are compared to the results obtained by the original CIS. The benefits of using the concept of Nash-Equilibrium are clearly demonstrated in terms of solution accuracy and optimisation efficiency.

Statistics of tricoherence

Statistics of the estimates of tricoherence are obtained analytically for nonlinear harmonic random processes with known true tricoherence. Expressions are presented for the bias, variance, and probability distributions of estimates of tricoherence as functions of the true tricoherence and the number of realizations averaged in the estimates. The expressions are applicable to arbitrary higher order coherence and arbitrary degree of interaction between modes. Theoretical results are compared with those obtained from numerical simulations of nonlinear harmonic random processes. Estimation of true values of tricoherence given observed values is also discussed

Implementation of ICD-11... perspectives from the Australian Bureau of Statistics

As the development of ICD-11 progresses, the Australian Bureau of Statistics is beginning to consider what will be required to successfully implement the new version of the classification. This paper will present early thoughts on the following: building understanding amongst the user community of upcoming changes and the implications of those changes; the need for training of coders and data users; development of analytical methods and conduct of comparability studies; processes to test, accept and implement new or updated coding software; assessment of coding quality; changes to data analyses and reporting processes; updates to regular publications; and assessing the resources required for successful implementation.

Scene invariant crowd counting and crowd occupancy analysis

In public places, crowd size may be an indicator of congestion, delay, instability, or of abnormal events, such as a fight, riot or emergency. Crowd related information can also provide important business intelligence such as the distribution of people throughout spaces, throughput rates, and local densities. A major drawback of many crowd counting approaches is their reliance on large numbers of holistic features, training data requirements of hundreds or thousands of frames per camera, and that each camera must be trained separately. This makes deployment in large multi-camera environments such as shopping centres very costly and difficult. In this chapter, we present a novel scene-invariant crowd counting algorithm that uses local features to monitor crowd size. The use of local features allows the proposed algorithm to calculate local occupancy statistics, scale to conditions which are unseen in the training data, and be trained on significantly less data. Scene invariance is achieved through the use of camera calibration, allowing the system to be trained on one or more viewpoints and then deployed on any number of new cameras for testing without further training. A pre-trained system could then be used as a ‘turn-key’ solution for crowd counting across a wide range of environments, eliminating many of the costly barriers to deployment which currently exist.

An experimental and computational investigation of performance of Green Gully for reusing stormwater

A new stormwater quality improvement device (SQID) called ‘Green Gully’ has been designed and developed in this study with an aim to re-using stormwater for irrigating plants and trees. The main purpose of the Green Gully is to collect road runoff/stormwater, make it suitable for irrigation and provide an automated network system for watering roadside plants and irrigational areas. This paper presents the design and development of Green Gully along with experimental and computational investigations of the performance of Green Gully. Performance (in the form of efficiency, i.e. the percentage of water flow through the gully grate) was experimentally determined using a gully model in the laboratory first, then a three dimensional numerical model was developed and simulated to predict the efficiency of Green Gully as a function of flow rate. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT was used for the simulation. GAMBIT was used for geometry creation and mesh generation. Experimental and simulation results are discussed and compared in this paper. The predicted efficiency was compared with the laboratory measured efficiency. It was found that the simulated results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Computational approaches to the visual validation of 3D virtual environments

Virtual environments can provide, through digital games and online social interfaces, extremely exciting forms of interactive entertainment. Because of their capability in displaying and manipulating information in natural and intuitive ways, such environments have found extensive applications in decision support, education and training in the health and science domains amongst others. Currently, the burden of validating both the interactive functionality and visual consistency of a virtual environment content is entirely carried out by developers and play-testers. While considerable research has been conducted in assisting the design of virtual world content and mechanics, to date, only limited contributions have been made regarding the automatic testing of the underpinning graphics software and hardware. The aim of this thesis is to determine whether the correctness of the images generated by a virtual environment can be quantitatively defined, and automatically measured, in order to facilitate the validation of the content. In an attempt to provide an environment-independent definition of visual consistency, a number of classification approaches were developed. First, a novel model-based object description was proposed in order to enable reasoning about the color and geometry change of virtual entities during a play-session. From such an analysis, two view-based connectionist approaches were developed to map from geometry and color spaces to a single, environment-independent, geometric transformation space; we used such a mapping to predict the correct visualization of the scene. Finally, an appearance-based aliasing detector was developed to show how incorrectness too, can be quantified for debugging purposes. Since computer games heavily rely on the use of highly complex and interactive virtual worlds, they provide an excellent test bed against which to develop, calibrate and validate our techniques. Experiments were conducted on a game engine and other virtual worlds prototypes to determine the applicability and effectiveness of our algorithms. The results show that quantifying visual correctness in virtual scenes is a feasible enterprise, and that effective automatic bug detection can be performed through the techniques we have developed. We expect these techniques to find application in large 3D games and virtual world studios that require a scalable solution to testing their virtual world software and digital content.

Projecting Computational Sense of Self: A Study of Transition in a Chronic Illness Online Community

We report on analysis of discussions in an online community of people with chronic illness using socio-cognitively motivated, automatically produced semantic spaces. The analysis aims to further the emerging theory of "transition" (how people can learn to incorporate the consequences of illness into their lives). An automatically derived representation of sense of self for individuals is created in the semantic space by the analysis of the email utterances of the community members. The movement over time of the sense of self is visualised, via projection, with respect to axes of "ordinariness" and "extra-ordinariness". Qualitative evaluation shows that the visualisation is paralleled by the transitions of people during the course of their illness. The research aims to progress tools for analysis of textual data to promote greater use of tacit knowledge as found in online virtual communities. We hope it also encourages further interest in representation of sense-of-self.

Understanding evaluation of learning support in mathematics and statistics

With rapid and continuing growth of learning support initiatives in mathematics and statistics found in many parts of the world, and with the likelihood that this trend will continue, there is a need to ensure that robust and coherent measures are in place to evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives. The nature of learning support brings challenges for measurement and analysis of its effects. After briefly reviewing the purpose, rationale for, and extent of current provision, this article provides a framework for those working in learning support to think about how their efforts can be evaluated. It provides references and specific examples of how workers in this field are collecting, analysing and reporting their findings. The framework is used to structure evaluation in terms of usage of facilities, resources and services provided, and also in terms of improvements in performance of the students and staff who engage with them. Very recent developments have started to address the effects of learning support on the development of deeper approaches to learning, the affective domain and the development of communities of practice of both learners and teachers. This article intends to be a stimulus to those who work in mathematics and statistics support to gather even richer, more valuable, forms of data. It provides a 'toolkit' for those interested in evaluation of learning support and closes by referring to an on-line resource being developed to archive the growing body of evidence. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Variational Bayes and the reduced dependence approximation for the autologistic model on an irregular grid with applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the whole lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and which may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios enabling us to implement a practical and efficient non-simulation based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The supplemental materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.

Ingroup and role identity influences on the initiation and maintenance of students' voluntary attendance at peer study sessions for statistics

Background: Although class attendance is linked to academic performance, questions remain about what determines students’ decisions to attend or miss class. Aims: In addition to the constructs of a common decision-making model, the theory of planned behaviour, the present study examined the influence of student role identity and university student (in-group) identification for predicting both the initiation and maintenance of students’ attendance at voluntary peer-assisted study sessions in a statistics subject. Sample: University students enrolled in a statistics subject were invited to complete a questionnaire at two time points across the academic semester. A total of 79 university students completed questionnaires at the first data collection point, with 46 students completing the questionnaire at the second data collection point. Method: Twice during the semester, students’ attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, student role identity, in-group identification, and intention to attend study sessions were assessed via on-line questionnaires. Objective measures of class attendance records for each half-semester (or ‘term’) were obtained. Results: Across both terms, students’ attitudes predicted their attendance intentions, with intentions predicting class attendance. Earlier in the semester, in addition to perceived behavioural control, both student role identity and in-group identification predicted students’ attendance intentions, with only role identity influencing intentions later in the semester. Conclusions: These findings highlight the possible chronology that different identity influences have in determining students’ initial and maintained attendance at voluntary sessions designed to facilitate their learning.

A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.