Effects of an adapted physical activity program on the physical condition of elderly women: an analysis of efficiency

Background: Specific research tools and designs can assist in identifying the efficiency of physical activity in elderly women. Objectives: To identify the effects of physical activity on the physical condition of older women. Method: A one-year-long physical activity program (123 sessions) was implemented for women aged 60 years or older. Four physical assessments were conducted, in which weight, height, BMI, blood pressure, heart rate, absences, grip strength, flexibility, VO2max, and static and dynamic balance were assessed. The statistical analyses included a repeated measures analysis, both inferential (analysis of variance - ANOVA) and effect size (Cohen's d coefficient), as well as identification of the participants' efficiency (Data Envelopment Analysis - DEA). Results: Despite the observation of differences that depended on the analysis used, the results were successful in the sense that they showed that physical activity adapted to older women can effectively change the decline in physical ability associated with aging, depending on the purpose of the study. The 60-65 yrs group was the most capable of converting physical activity into health benefits in both the short and long term. The >65 yrs group took less advantage of physical activity. Conclusions: Adherence to the program and actual time spent on each type of exercise are the factors that determine which population can benefit from physical activity programs. The DEA allows the assessment of the results related to time spent on physical activity in terms of health concerns. Article registered in Clinicaltrials.gov under number NCT01558401.

Functional evaluation of transplanted kidneys with diffusion-weighted and BOLD MR imaging: initial experience

PURPOSE: To prospectively evaluate feasibility and reproducibility of diffusion-weighted (DW) and blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging in patients with renal allografts, as compared with these features in healthy volunteers with native kidneys. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The local ethics committee approved the study protocol; patients provided written informed consent. Fifteen patients with a renal allograft and in stable condition (nine men, six women; age range, 20-67 years) and 15 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers underwent DW and BOLD MR imaging. Seven patients with renal allografts were examined twice to assess reproducibility of results. DW MR imaging yielded a total apparent diffusion coefficient including diffusion and microperfusion (ADC(tot)), as well as an ADC reflecting predominantly pure diffusion (ADC(D)) and the perfusion fraction. R2* of BOLD MR imaging enabled the estimation of renal oxygenation. Statistical analysis was performed, and analysis of variance was used for repeated measurements. Coefficients of variation between and within subjects were calculated to assess reproducibility. RESULTS: In patients, ADC(tot), ADC(D), and perfusion fraction were similar in the cortex and medulla. In volunteers, values in the medulla were similar to those in the cortex and medulla of patients; however, values in the cortex were higher than those in the medulla (P < .05). Medullary R2* was higher than cortical R2* in patients (12.9 sec(-1) +/- 2.1 [standard deviation] vs 11.0 sec(-1) +/- 0.6, P < .007) and volunteers (15.3 sec(-1) +/- 1.1 vs 11.5 sec(-1) +/- 0.5, P < .0001). However, medullary R2* was lower in patients than in volunteers (P < .004). Increased medullary R2* was paralleled by decreased diffusion in patients with allografts. A low coefficient of variation in the cortex and medulla within subjects was obtained for ADC(tot), ADC(D), and R2* (<5.2%), while coefficient of variation within subjects was higher for perfusion fraction (medulla, 15.1%; cortex, 8.6%). Diffusion and perfusion indexes correlated significantly with serum creatinine concentrations. CONCLUSION: DW and BOLD MR imaging are feasible and reproducible in patients with renal allografts.

High-resolution morphological and biochemical imaging of articular cartilage of the ankle joint at 3.0 T using a new dedicated phased array coil: in vivo reproducibility study

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and reproducibility of high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and quantitative T2 mapping of the talocrural cartilage within a clinically applicable scan time using a new dedicated ankle coil and high-field MRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten healthy volunteers (mean age 32.4 years) underwent MRI of the ankle. As morphological sequences, proton density fat-suppressed turbo spin echo (PD-FS-TSE), as a reference, was compared with 3D true fast imaging with steady-state precession (TrueFISP). Furthermore, biochemical quantitative T2 imaging was prepared using a multi-echo spin-echo T2 approach. Data analysis was performed three times each by three different observers on sagittal slices, planned on the isotropic 3D-TrueFISP; as a morphological parameter, cartilage thickness was assessed and for T2 relaxation times, region-of-interest (ROI) evaluation was done. Reproducibility was determined as a coefficient of variation (CV) for each volunteer; averaged as root mean square (RMSA) given as a percentage; statistical evaluation was done using analysis of variance. RESULTS: Cartilage thickness of the talocrural joint showed significantly higher values for the 3D-TrueFISP (ranging from 1.07 to 1.14 mm) compared with the PD-FS-TSE (ranging from 0.74 to 0.99 mm); however, both morphological sequences showed comparable good results with RMSA of 7.1 to 8.5%. Regarding quantitative T2 mapping, measurements showed T2 relaxation times of about 54 ms with an excellent reproducibility (RMSA) ranging from 3.2 to 4.7%. CONCLUSION: In our study the assessment of cartilage thickness and T2 relaxation times could be performed with high reproducibility in a clinically realizable scan time, demonstrating new possibilities for further investigations into patient groups.

Living Renal Allograft Transplantation: Diffusion-weighted MR Imaging in Longitudinal Follow-up of the Donated and the Remaining Kidney.

Purpose To determine whether diffusion-weighted (DW) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging in living renal allograft donation allows monitoring of potential changes in the nontransplanted remaining kidney of the donor because of unilateral nephrectomy and changes in the transplanted kidney before and after transplantation in donor and recipient, respectively, and whether DW MR parameters are correlated in the same kidney before and after transplantation. Materials and Methods The study protocol was approved by the local ethics committee; written informed consent was obtained. Thirteen healthy kidney donors and their corresponding recipients prospectively underwent DW MR imaging (multiple b values) in donors before donation and in donors and recipients at day 8 and months 3 and 12 after donation. Total apparent diffusion coefficient (ADCT) values were determined; contribution of microcirculation was quantified in perfusion fraction (FP). Longitudinal changes of diffusion parameters were compared (repeated-measures one-way analysis of variance with post hoc pairwise comparisons). Correlations were tested (linear regression). Results ADCT values in nontransplanted kidney of donors increased from a preexplantation value of (188 ± 9 [standard deviation]) to (202 ± 11) × 10(-5) mm(2)/sec in medulla and from (199 ± 11) to (210 ± 13) × 10(-5) mm(2)/sec in cortex 1 week after donation (P < .004). Medullary, but not cortical, ADCT values stayed increased up to 1 year. ADCT values in allografts in recipients were stable. Compared with values obtained before transplantation in donors, the corticomedullary difference was reduced in allografts (P < .03). Cortical ADCT values correlated with estimated glomerular filtration rate in recipients (R = 0.56, P < .001) but not donors. Cortical ADCT values in the same kidney before transplantation in donors correlated with those in recipients on day 8 after transplantation (R = 0.77, P = .006). FP did not show significant changes. Conclusion DW MR imaging depicts early adaptations in the remaining nontransplanted kidney of donors after nephrectomy. All diffusion parameters remained constant in allograft recipients after transplantation. This method has potential monitoring utility, although assessment of clinical relevance is needed. © RSNA, 2013 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

A study of nurses' judgement of and participation in decision-making for nursing home placement for the elderly

This study investigated the effects of patient variables (physical and cognitive disability, significant others' preference and social support) on nurses' nursing home placement decision-making and explored nurses' participation in the decision-making process.^ The study was conducted in a hospital in Texas. A sample of registered nurses on units that refer patients for nursing home placement were asked to review a series of vignettes describing elderly patients that differed in terms of the study variables and indicate the extent to which they agreed with nursing home placement on a five-point Likert scale. The vignettes were judged to have good content validity by a group of five colleagues (expert consultants) and test-retest reliability based on the Pearson correlation coefficient was satisfactory (average of.75) across all vignettes.^ The study tested the following hypotheses: Nurses have more of a propensity to recommend placement when (1) patients have severe physical disabilities; (2) patients have severe cognitive disabilities; (3) it is the significant others' preference; and (4) patients have no social support nor alternative services. Other hypotheses were that (5) a nurse's characteristics and extent of participation will not have a significant effect on their placement decision; and (6) a patient's social support is the most important, single factor, and the combination of factors of severe physical and cognitive disability, significant others' preference, and no social support nor alternative services will be the most important set of predictors of a nurse's placement decision.^ Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to analyze the relationships implied in the hypothesis. A series of one-way ANOVA (bivariate analyses) of the main effects supported hypotheses one-five.^ Overall, the n-way ANOVA (multivariate analyses) of the main effects confirmed that social support was the most important single factor controlling for other variables. The 4-way interaction model confirmed that the most predictive combination of patient characteristics were severe physical and cognitive disability, no social support and the significant others did not desire placement. These analyses provided an understanding of the importance of the influence of specific patient variables on nurses' recommendations regarding placement. ^

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of upper abdominal organs: field strength and intervendor variability of apparent diffusion coefficients

PURPOSE To determine the variability of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in various anatomic regions in the upper abdomen measured with magnetic resonance (MR) systems from different vendors and with different field strengths. MATERIALS AND METHODS Ten healthy men (mean age, 36.6 years ± 7.7 [standard deviation]) gave written informed consent to participate in this prospective ethics committee-approved study. Diffusion-weighted (DW) MR imaging was performed in each subject with 1.5- and 3.0-T MR systems from each of three vendors at two institutions. Two readers independently measured ADC values in seven upper abdominal regions (left and right liver lobe, gallbladder, pancreas, spleen, and renal cortex and medulla). ADC values were tested for interobserver differences, as well as for differences related to field strength and vendor, with repeated-measures analysis of variance; coefficients of variation (CVs) and variance components were calculated. RESULTS Interreader agreement was excellent (intraclass coefficient, 0.876). ADC values were (77.5-88.8) ×10(-5) mm(2)/sec in the spleen and (250.6-278.5) ×10(-5) mm(2)/sec in the gallbladder. There were no significant differences between ADC values measured at 1.5 T and those measured at 3.0 T in any anatomic region (P >.10 for all). In two of seven regions at 1.5 T (left and right liver lobes, P < .023) and in four of seven regions at 3.0 T (left liver lobe, pancreas, and renal cortex and medulla, P < .008), intervendor differences were significant. CVs ranged from 7.0% to 27.1% depending on the anatomic location. CONCLUSION Despite significant intervendor differences in ADC values of various anatomic regions of the upper abdomen, ADC values of the gallbladder, pancreas, spleen, and kidney may be comparable between MR systems from different vendors and between different field strengths.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Nonperturbative estimate of the heavy quark momentum diffusion coefficient

We estimate the momentum diffusion coefficient of a heavy quark within a pure SU(3) plasma at a temperature of about 1.5Tc. Large-scale Monte Carlo simulations on a series of lattices extending up to 1923×48 permit us to carry out a continuum extrapolation of the so-called color-electric imaginary-time correlator. The extrapolated correlator is analyzed with the help of theoretically motivated models for the corresponding spectral function. Evidence for a nonzero transport coefficient is found and, incorporating systematic uncertainties reflecting model assumptions, we obtain κ=(1.8–3.4)T3. This implies that the “drag coefficient,” characterizing the time scale at which heavy quarks adjust to hydrodynamic flow, is η−1D=(1.8–3.4)(Tc/T)2(M/1.5  GeV)  fm/c, where M is the heavy quark kinetic mass. The results apply to bottom and, with somewhat larger systematic uncertainties, to charm quarks.

Eosinophilic oesophagitis: relationship of quality of life with clinical, endoscopic and histological activity.

BACKGROUND Knowledge about determinants of quality of life (QoL) in eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoO) patients helps to identify patients at risk of experiencing poor QoL and to tailor therapeutic interventions accordingly. AIM To evaluate the impact of symptom severity, endoscopic and histological activity on EoE-specific QoL in adult EoE patients. METHODS Ninety-eight adult EoE patients were prospectively included (64% male, median age 39 years). Patients completed two validated instruments to assess EoE-specific QoL (EoO-QoL-A) and symptom severity (adult EoE activity index patient-reported outcome) and then underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsy sampling. Physicians reported standardised information on EoE-associated endoscopic and histological alterations. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the relationship between QoL and symptom severity. Linear regression and analysis of variance was used to quantify the extent to which variations in severity of EoE symptoms, endoscopic and histological findings explain variations in QoL. RESULTS Quality of life strongly correlated with symptom severity (r = 0.610, P < 0.001). While the variation in severity of symptoms, endoscopic and histological findings alone explained 38%, 35% and 22% of the variability in EoE-related QoL, respectively, these together explained 60% of variation. Symptom severity explained 18-35% of the variation in each of the five QoL subscale scores. CONCLUSIONS Eosinophilic oesophagitis symptom severity and biological disease activity determine QoL in adult patients with eosinophilic oesophagitis. Therefore, reduction in both eosinophilic oesophagitis symptoms as well as biological disease activity is essential for improvement of QoL in adult patients. Clinicaltrials.gov number, NCT00939263.

A Bayesian approach to estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient

A Bayesian approach to estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient was used for this research project. The background of the intraclass correlation coefficient, a summary of its standard estimators, and a review of basic Bayesian terminology and methodology were presented. The conditional posterior density of the intraclass correlation coefficient was then derived and estimation procedures related to this derivation were shown in detail. Three examples of applications of the conditional posterior density to specific data sets were also included. Two sets of simulation experiments were performed to compare the mean and mode of the conditional posterior density of the intraclass correlation coefficient to more traditional estimators. Non-Bayesian methods of estimation used were: the methods of analysis of variance and maximum likelihood for balanced data; and the methods of MIVQUE (Minimum Variance Quadratic Unbiased Estimation) and maximum likelihood for unbalanced data. The overall conclusion of this research project was that Bayesian estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient can be appropriate, useful and practical alternatives to traditional methods of estimation. ^

THE MEASUREMENT OF HUMANISTIC AND DEHUMANISTIC BEHAVIORS IN HOSPITAL NURSING ENVIRONMENTS

The purpose of this investigation was to develop a reliable scale to measure the social environment of hospital nursing units according to the degree of humanistic and dehumanistic behaviors as perceived by nursing staff in hospitals. The study was based on a conceptual model proposed by Jan Howard, a sociologist. After reviewing the literature relevant to personalization of care, analyzing interviews with patients in various settings, and studying biological, psychological, and sociological frames of reference, Howard proposed the following necessary conditions for humanized health care. They were the dimensions of Irreplaceability, Holistic Selves, Freedom of Action, Status Equality, Shared Decision Making and Responsibility, Empathy, and Positive Affect.^ It was proposed that a scale composed of behaviors which reflected Howard's dimensions be developed within the framework of the social environment of nursing care units in hospitals. Nursing units were chosen because hospitals are traditionally organized around nursing care units and because patients spend the majority of their time in hospitals interacting with various levels of nursing personnel.^ Approximately 180 behaviors describing both patient and nursing staff behaviors which occur on nursing units were developed. Behaviors which were believed to be humanistic as well as dehumanistic were included. The items were classified under the dimensions of Howard's model by a purposively selected sample of 42 nurses representing a broad range of education, experience, and clinical areas. Those items with a high degree of agreement, at least 50%, were placed in the questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of 169 items including six items from the Marlowe Crowne Social Desirability Scale (Short Form).^ The questionnaire, the Social Environment Scale, was distributed to the entire 7 to 3 shift nursing staff (603) of four hospitals including a public county specialty hospital, a public county general and acute hospital, a large university affiliated hospital with all services, and a small general community hospital. Staff were asked to report on a Likert type scale how often the listed behaviors occurred on their units. Three hundred and sixteen respondents (52% of the population) participated in the study.^ An item analysis was done in which each item was examined in relationship to its correlation to its own dimension total and to the totals of the other dimensions. As a result of this analysis, three dimensions, Positive Affect, Irreplaceability, and Freedom of Action were deleted from the scale. The final scale consisted of 70 items with 26 in Shared Decision Making and Responsibility, 25 in Holistic Selves, 12 in Status Equality, and seven in Empathy. The alpha coefficient was over .800 for all scales except Empathy which was .597.^ An analysis of variance by hospital was performed on the means of each dimension of the scale. There was a statistically significant difference between hospitals with a trend for the public hospitals to score lower on the scale than the university or community hospitals. That the scale scores should be lower in crowded, understaffed public hospitals was not unexpected and reflected that the scale had some discriminating ability. These differences were still observed after adjusting for the effect of Social Desirability.^ In summary, there is preliminary evidence based on this exploratory investigation that a reliable scale based on at least four dimensions from Howard's model could be developed to measure the concept of humanistic health care in hospital settings. ^

THE APPLICATION OF PATH ANALYSIS TO ASSESSMENT OF IRON NUTRITIONAL STATUS IN MAN

Path analysis has been applied to components of the iron metabolic system with the intent of suggesting an integrated procedure for better evaluating iron nutritional status at the community level. The primary variables of interest in this study were (1) iron stores, (2) total iron-binding capacity, (3) serum ferritin, (4) serum iron, (5) transferrin saturation, and (6) hemoglobin concentration. Correlation coefficients for relationships among these variables were obtained from published literature and postulated in a series of models using measures of those variables that are feasible to include in a community nutritional survey. Models were built upon known information about the metabolism of iron and were limited by what had been reported in the literature in terms of correlation coefficients or quantitative relationships. Data were pooled from various studies and correlations of the same bivariate relationships were averaged after z- transformations. Correlation matrices were then constructed by transforming the average values back into correlation coefficients. The results of path analysis in this study indicate that hemoglobin is not a good indicator of early iron deficiency. It does not account for variance in iron stores. On the other hand, 91% of the variance in iron stores is explained by serum ferritin and total iron-binding capacity. In addition, the magnitude of the path coefficient (.78) of the serum ferritin-iron stores relationship signifies that serum ferritin is the most important predictor of iron stores in the proposed model. Finally, drawing upon known relations among variables and the amount of variance explained in path models, it is suggested that the following blood measures should be made in assessing community iron deficiency: (1) serum ferritin, (2) total iron-binding capacity, (3) serum iron, (4) transferrin saturation, and (5) hemoglobin concentration. These measures (with acceptable ranges and cut-off points) could make possible the complete evaluation of all three stages of iron deficiency in those persons surveyed at the community level. ^

Morphology of Orbulina universa and Globorotalia scitula across local extinctions during Sapropel S5 (Eastern Mediterranean Sea, c.126-121 ka)

Extinction is a remarkably difficult phenomenon to study under natural conditions. This is because the outcome of stress exposure and associated fitness reduction is not known until the extinction occurs and it remains unclear whether there is any phenotypic reaction of the exposed population that can be used to predict its fate. Here we take advantage of the fossil record, where the ecological outcome of stress exposure is known. Specifically, we analyze shell morphology of planktonic Foraminifera in sediment samples from the Mediterranean, during an interval preceding local extinctions. In two species representing different plankton habitats, we observe shifts in trait state and decrease in variance in association with non-terminal stress, indicating stabilizing selection. At terminal stress levels, immediately before extinction, we observe increased growth asymmetry and trait variance, indicating disruptive selection and bet-hedging. The pre-extinction populations of both species show a combination of trait states and trait variance distinct from all populations exposed to non-terminal levels of stress. This finding indicates that the phenotypic history of a population may allow the detection of threshold levels of stress, likely to lead to extinction. It is thus an alternative to population dynamics in studying and monitoring natural population ecology.

Estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea-level rise = Estimación del volumen de hielo de Svalbard y su contribución potencial a la subida del nivel del mar

El objetivo final de las investigaciones recogidas en esta tesis doctoral es la estimación del volumen de hielo total de los ms de 1600 glaciares de Svalbard, en el Ártico, y, con ello, su contribución potencial a la subida del nivel medio del mar en un escenario de calentamiento global. Los cálculos más exactos del volumen de un glaciar se efectúan a partir de medidas del espesor de hielo obtenidas con georradar. Sin embargo, estas medidas no son viables para conjuntos grandes de glaciares, debido al coste, dificultades logísticas y tiempo requerido por ellas, especialmente en las regiones polares o de montaña. Frente a ello, la determinación de áreas de glaciares a partir de imágenes de satélite sí es viable a escalas global y regional, por lo que las relaciones de escala volumen-área constituyen el mecanismo más adecuado para las estimaciones de volúmenes globales y regionales, como las realizadas para Svalbard en esta tesis. Como parte del trabajo de tesis, hemos elaborado un inventario de los glaciares de Svalbard en los que se han efectuado radioecosondeos, y hemos realizado los cálculos del volumen de hielo de más de 80 cuencas glaciares de Svalbard a partir de datos de georradar. Estos volúmenes han sido utilizados para calibrar las relaciones volumen-área desarrolladas en la tesis. Los datos de georradar han sido obtenidos en diversas campañas llevadas a cabo por grupos de investigación internacionales, gran parte de ellas lideradas por el Grupo de Simulación Numérica en Ciencias e Ingeniería de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, del que forman parte la doctoranda y los directores de tesis. Además, se ha desarrollado una metodología para la estimación del error en el cálculo de volumen, que aporta una novedosa técnica de cálculo del error de interpolación para conjuntos de datos del tipo de los obtenidos con perfiles de georradar, que presentan distribuciones espaciales con unos patrones muy característicos pero con una densidad de datos muy irregular. Hemos obtenido en este trabajo de tesis relaciones de escala específicas para los glaciares de Svalbard, explorando la sensibilidad de los parámetros a diferentes morfologías glaciares, e incorporando nuevas variables. En particular, hemos efectuado experimentos orientados a verificar si las relaciones de escala obtenidas caracterizando los glaciares individuales por su tamaño, pendiente o forma implican diferencias significativas en el volumen total estimado para los glaciares de Svalbard, y si esta partición implica algún patrón significativo en los parámetros de las relaciones de escala. Nuestros resultados indican que, para un valor constante del factor multiplicativo de la relacin de escala, el exponente que afecta al área en la relación volumen-área decrece según aumentan la pendiente y el factor de forma, mientras que las clasificaciones basadas en tamaño no muestran un patrón significativo. Esto significa que los glaciares con mayores pendientes y de tipo circo son menos sensibles a los cambios de área. Además, los volúmenes de la población total de los glaciares de Svalbard calculados con fraccionamiento en grupos por tamaño y pendiente son un 1-4% menores que los obtenidas usando la totalidad de glaciares sin fraccionamiento en grupos, mientras que los volúmenes calculados fraccionando por forma son un 3-5% mayores. También realizamos experimentos multivariable para obtener estimaciones óptimas del volumen total mediante una combinación de distintos predictores. Nuestros resultados muestran que un modelo potencial simple volumen-área explica el 98.6% de la varianza. Sólo el predictor longitud del glaciar proporciona significación estadística cuando se usa además del área del glaciar, aunque el coeficiente de determinación disminuye en comparación con el modelo más simple V-A. El predictor intervalo de altitud no proporciona información adicional cuando se usa además del área del glaciar. Nuestras estimaciones del volumen de la totalidad de glaciares de Svalbard usando las diferentes relaciones de escala obtenidas en esta tesis oscilan entre 6890 y 8106 km3, con errores relativos del orden de 6.6-8.1%. El valor medio de nuestras estimaciones, que puede ser considerado como nuestra mejor estimación del volumen, es de 7.504 km3. En términos de equivalente en nivel del mar (SLE), nuestras estimaciones corresponden a una subida potencial del nivel del mar de 17-20 mm SLE, promediando 19_2 mm SLE, donde el error corresponde al error en volumen antes indicado. En comparación, las estimaciones usando las relaciones V-A de otros autores son de 13-26 mm SLE, promediando 20 _ 2 mm SLE, donde el error representa la desviación estándar de las distintas estimaciones. ABSTRACT The final aim of the research involved in this doctoral thesis is the estimation of the total ice volume of the more than 1600 glaciers of Svalbard, in the Arctic region, and thus their potential contribution to sea-level rise under a global warming scenario. The most accurate calculations of glacier volumes are those based on ice-thicknesses measured by groundpenetrating radar (GPR). However, such measurements are not viable for very large sets of glaciers, due to their cost, logistic difficulties and time requirements, especially in polar or mountain regions. On the contrary, the calculation of glacier areas from satellite images is perfectly viable at global and regional scales, so the volume-area scaling relationships are the most useful tool to determine glacier volumes at global and regional scales, as done for Svalbard in this PhD thesis. As part of the PhD work, we have compiled an inventory of the radio-echo sounded glaciers in Svalbard, and we have performed the volume calculations for more than 80 glacier basins in Svalbard from GPR data. These volumes have been used to calibrate the volume-area relationships derived in this dissertation. Such GPR data have been obtained during fieldwork campaigns carried out by international teams, often lead by the Group of Numerical Simulation in Science and Engineering of the Technical University of Madrid, to which the PhD candidate and her supervisors belong. Furthermore, we have developed a methodology to estimate the error in the volume calculation, which includes a novel technique to calculate the interpolation error for data sets of the type produced by GPR profiling, which show very characteristic data distribution patterns but with very irregular data density. We have derived in this dissertation scaling relationships specific for Svalbard glaciers, exploring the sensitivity of the scaling parameters to different glacier morphologies and adding new variables. In particular, we did experiments aimed to verify whether scaling relationships obtained through characterization of individual glacier shape, slope and size imply significant differences in the estimated volume of the total population of Svalbard glaciers, and whether this partitioning implies any noticeable pattern in the scaling relationship parameters. Our results indicate that, for a fixed value of the factor in the scaling relationship, the exponent of the area in the volume-area relationship decreases as slope and shape increase, whereas size-based classifications do not reveal any clear trend. This means that steep slopes and cirque-type glaciers are less sensitive to changes in glacier area. Moreover, the volumes of the total population of Svalbard glaciers calculated according to partitioning in subgroups by size and slope are smaller (by 1-4%) than that obtained considering all glaciers without partitioning into subgroups, whereas the volumes calculated according to partitioning in subgroups by shape are 3-5% larger. We also did multivariate experiments attempting to optimally predict the volume of Svalbard glaciers from a combination of different predictors. Our results show that a simple power-type V-A model explains 98.6% of the variance. Only the predictor glacier length provides statistical significance when used in addition to the predictor glacier area, though the coefficient of determination decreases as compared with the simpler V-A model. The predictor elevation range did not provide any additional information when used in addition to glacier area. Our estimates of the volume of the entire population of Svalbard glaciers using the different scaling relationships that we have derived along this thesis range within 6890-8106 km3, with estimated relative errors in total volume of the order of 6.6-8.1% The average value of all of our estimates, which could be used as a best estimate for the volume, is 7,504 km3. In terms of sea-level equivalent (SLE), our volume estimates correspond to a potential contribution to sea-level rise within 17-20 mm SLE, averaging 19 _ 2 mm SLE, where the quoted error corresponds to our estimated relative error in volume. For comparison, the estimates using the V-A scaling relations found in the literature range within 13-26 mm SLE, averaging 20 _ 2 mm SLE, where the quoted error represents the standard deviation of the different estimates.

Inference of binding affinity from neuronal receptors in humans

Tese de mestrado, Bioinformática e Biologia Computacional (Bioinformática), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016