A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Clonal heterogeneity and chromosomal instability at disease presentation in high hyperdiploid acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Although aneuploidy has many possible causes, it often results from underlying chromosomal instability (CIN) leading to an unstable karyotype with cell-to-cell variation and multiple subclones. To test for the presence of CIN in high hyperdiploid acute lymphoblastic leukemia (HeH ALL) at diagnosis, we investigated 20 patients (10 HeH ALL and 10 non-HeH ALL), using automated four-color interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (I-FISH) with centromeric probes for chromosomes 4, 6, 10, and 17. In HeH ALL, the proportion of abnormal cells ranged from 36.3% to 92.4%, and a variety of aneuploid populations were identified. Compared with conventional cytogenetics, I-FISH revealed numerous additional clones, some of them very small. To investigate the nature and origin of this clonal heterogeneity, we determined average numerical CIN values for all four chromosomes together and for each chromosome and patient group. The CIN values in HeH ALL were relatively high (range, 22.2-44.7%), compared with those in non-HeH ALL (3.2-6.4%), thus accounting for the presence of numerical CIN in HeH ALL at diagnosis. We conclude that numerical CIN may be at the origin of the high level of clonal heterogeneity revealed by I-FISH in HeH ALL at presentation, which would corroborate the potential role of CIN in tumor pathogenesis.

Pioglitazone improves fat distribution, the adipokine profile and hepatic insulin sensitivity in non-diabetic end-stage renal disease subjects on maintenance dialysis: a randomized cross-over pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Fat redistribution, increased inflammation and insulin resistance are prevalent in non-diabetic subjects treated with maintenance dialysis. The aim of this study was to test whether pioglitazone, a powerful insulin sensitizer, alters body fat distribution and adipokine secretion in these subjects and whether it is associated with improved insulin sensitivity. TRIAL DESIGN: This was a double blind cross-over study with 16 weeks of pioglitazone 45 mg vs placebo involving 12 subjects. METHODS: At the end of each phase, body composition (anthropometric measurements, dual energy X-ray absorptometry (DEXA), abdominal CT), hepatic and muscle insulin sensitivity (2-step hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp with 2H2-glucose) were measured and fasting blood adipokines and cardiometabolic risk markers were monitored. RESULTS: Four months treatment with pioglitazone had no effect on total body weight or total fat but decreased the visceral/sub-cutaneous adipose tissue ratio by 16% and decreased the leptin/adiponectin (L/A) ratio from 3.63×10-3 to 0.76×10-3. This was associated with a 20% increase in hepatic insulin sensitivity without changes in muscle insulin sensitivity, a 12% increase in HDL cholesterol and a 50% decrease in CRP. CONCLUSIONS/LIMITATIONS: Pioglitazone significantly changes the visceral-subcutaneous fat distribution and plasma L/A ratio in non diabetic subjects on maintenance dialysis. This was associated with improved hepatic insulin sensitivity and a reduction of cardio-metabolic risk markers. Whether these effects may improve the outcome of non diabetic end-stage renal disease subjects on maintenance dialysis still needs further evaluation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrial.gov NCT01253928.

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Sensitivity of a Vacuum Aspiratory Culture Technique for Diagnosis of Localized Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in an Endemic Area of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Transmission

Sixty eight patients with localized cutaneous leishmaniasis from an area with Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis transmission had cultures performed with a modified Marzochi´s vacuum aspiratory puncture technique to establish sensitivity and contamination rate with this new method. Overall sensitivity of three aspirates was 47.1%; (CI95% 39.4; 59.4) significantly greater than the sensitivity of a single one aspirate. Fungal contamination was observed in 6/204 (2.9%) inoculated culture tubes. We recommend that this useful technique should be adopted as routine for primary isolation of L. (V.) braziliensis from localized cutaneous ulcers.

Sensitivity of Lymph Node Aspiration in Localized Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Due to Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis

Twenty nine patients with localized cutaneous leishmaniasis had lymph node and skin ulcer aspirations for culture of Leishmania with the modified Marzochi´s vacuum aspiratory technique. Sensitivity of lymph node aspiration was 58.6% and 34.5% for skin ulcer aspiration (P=0.06). Combined sensitivity of the two methods was 79.3%. There was no agreement between methods (Kappa Index = -0.084; CI95% -0,45; 0,28) showing the potential complementary roles in diagnostic approach.

Assessing depression outcome in patients with moderate dementia: sensitivity of the HoNOS65+ scale.

To date, there is no widely accepted clinical scale to monitor the evolution of depressive symptoms in demented patients. We assessed the sensitivity to treatment of a validated French version of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale (HoNOS) 65+ compared to five routinely used scales. Thirty elderly inpatients with ICD-10 diagnosis of dementia and depression were evaluated at admission and discharge using paired t-test. Using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) "depressive mood" item as gold standard, a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis assessed the validity of HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item score changes. Unlike Geriatric Depression Scale, Mini Mental State Examination and Activities of Daily Living scores, BPRS scores decreased and Global Assessment Functioning Scale score increased significantly from admission to discharge. Amongst HoNOS65+F items, "behavioural disturbance", "depressive symptoms", "activities of daily life" and "drug management" items showed highly significant changes between the first and last day of hospitalization. The ROC analysis revealed that changes in the HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item correctly classified 93% of the cases with good sensitivity (0.95) and specificity (0.88) values. These data suggest that the HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item may provide a valid assessment of the evolution of depressive symptoms in demented patients.

Selection of Trypanosoma cruzi clonal genotypes (clonet 20 and 39) isolated from Bolivian triatomines following subculture in liquid medium

Previous studies showed that two groups of Trypanosoma cruzi clonal genotypes named clonet 20 and clonet 39 were predominant in Triatoma infestans, the unique vector of Chagas disease in Bolivia. These groups of clones correspond to distinct genetic clusters. These clonets were detected in T. infestans and Rhodnius pictipes fecal samples before isolation and after culture by kDNA PCR (polymerase chain rreaction) and hybridization of the amplified products with clonet specific kDNA probes named 20 and 39 as previously reported. Forty eight T. infestans and three R. pictipes infected insects captured at random in different Bolivian departments were proceeded. As previously reported the direct identification of the two major clonets in fecal samples allowed the detection of abundant mixed infections: 41% in the original sample, however after culture, only 6% of mixed infections were detected. Among the 21 parasite stocks isolated from digestive tracts where mixed infections were initially detected (clonet 20 + 39) clonet 20 alone was detected in 81% of them. This result clearly showed that the culture step selected clonet 20 parasites over those belonging to clonet 39. The taxonomic status of the isolated stocks was also confirmed by isoenzyme typing, and correlation was observed between clustering topology and hybridization patterns with the probes 20 and 39.

Non-nest mate discrimination and clonal colony structure in the parthenogenetic ant Cerapachys biroi

Understanding the interplay between cooperation and conflict in social groups is a major goal of biology. One important factor is genetic relatedness, and animal societies are usually composed of related but genetically different individuals, setting the stage for conflicts over reproductive allocation. Recently, however, it has been found that several ant species reproduce predominantly asexually. Although this can potentially give rise to clonal societies, in the few well-studied cases, colonies are often chimeric assemblies of different genotypes, due to worker drifting or colony fusion. In the ant Cerapachys biroi, queens are absent and all individuals reproduce via thelytokous parthenogenesis, making this species an ideal study system of asexual reproduction and its consequences for social dynamics. Here, we show that colonies in our study population on Okinawa, Japan, recognize and effectively discriminate against foreign workers, especially those from unrelated asexual lineages. In accord with this finding, colonies never contained more than a single asexual lineage and average pairwise genetic relatedness within colonies was extremely high (r = 0.99). This implies that the scope for social conflict in C. biroi is limited, with unusually high potential for cooperation and altruism.

Orthogonal organic and aqueous-based washes of tissue sections to enhance protein sensitivity by MALDI imaging mass spectrometry.

Imaging mass spectrometry (IMS) is an emergent and innovative approach for measuring the composition, abundance and regioselectivity of molecules within an investigated area of fixed dimension. Although providing unprecedented molecular information compared with conventional MS techniques, enhancement of protein signature by IMS is still necessary and challenging. This paper demonstrates the combination of conventional organic washes with an optimized aqueous-based buffer for tissue section preparation before matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) IMS of proteins. Based on a 500 mM ammonium formate in water-acetonitrile (9:1; v/v, 0.1% trifluororacetic acid, 0.1% Triton) solution, this buffer wash has shown to significantly enhance protein signature by profiling and IMS (~fourfold) when used after organic washes (70% EtOH followed by 90% EtOH), improving the quality and number of ion images obtained from mouse kidney and a 14-day mouse fetus whole-body tissue sections, while maintaining a similar reproducibility with conventional tissue rinsing. Even if some protein losses were observed, the data mining has demonstrated that it was primarily low abundant signals and that the number of new peaks found is greater with the described procedure. The proposed buffer has thus demonstrated to be of high efficiency for tissue section preparation providing novel and complementary information for direct on-tissue MALDI analysis compared with solely conventional organic rinsing.

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Sensitivity and specificity of the electrocardiogram to detect chronic myocardial infarction of the anteroseptal wall.

L`electrocardiograma és la primera eina diagnòstica fàcilment disponible per la detecció de l´infart a la práctica clínica. El seu valor va ser donat principalment amb estudis antics anatomopatològics. La ressonància magnètica cardíaca actualment és la tècnica d`elecció per la detecció de l`infart. Aquest estudi investiga el valor de l`electrocardiograma ( sensibilitat i especificitat) per detectar infarts de la zona anteroseptal. Conclusiò: la sensibilitat y la especificitat de quatre patents electrocardiogràfiques de la zona anteroseptal va ser valorada. Així mateix, encara que s`observin extenses ones Q en les derivacions anteriors la necrosis és usualment limitada si VL no está afectat. 3

Direct Sensitivity Test of the MB/BacT System

In order to evaluate the direct-method test of sensitivity to drugs used in the principal tuberculosis treatment regimes, in the Organon Teknika MB/BacT system, we tested 50 sputum samples positive to microscopy taken from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and with clinical indications for an antibiogram, admitted sequentially for examination during the routine of the reference laboratory. The material was treated v/v with 23% trisodium phosphate solution, incubated for 24 h at 35°C, and neutralized v/v with 20% monosodium phosphate solution. The material was then centrifuged and the sediment inoculated into flasks containing Rifampin - 2 µg/ml, Isoniazid - 0.2 µg/ml, Pyrazinamide - 100 µg/ml, Ethambutol - 2.5 µg/ml, Ethionamide - 1.25 µg/ml, and Streptomycin - 2 µg/ml. The tests were evaluated using the indirect method in the BACTEC 460 TB (Becton Dickinson) system as the gold standard. The results showed that the Rifampin test performed best, i.e., 100% sensitivity at 95% Confidence Interval (82.2-100) and 100% specificity at 95% Confidence Interval (84.5-100), followed by Isoniazid and Pyrazinamide. In this experiment, 92% of the materials showed a final reading in 30 days; this period represents the time for primary isolation as well as the results of the sensitivity profile, and is within Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations regarding time for performance of the antibiogram. The inoculated flasks showed no contamination during the experiment. The MB/BacT is shown to be a reliable, rapid, fully automated nonradiometric system for the tuberculosis antibiogram.