Only connect: an annotated bibliography reflecting the breadth and diversity of systems thinking

The field of systems thinking is both broad and diverse. This paper tries to provide assistance to outsiders wishing to find out what systems thinking is and also to insiders interested in exploring areas of the systems movement other than their own. A selection of books, papers and articles is given. Each has a full reference and a brief annotation, this being an account of, and a critical comment on, its content. The selection does not aim to be definitive or authoritative and obviously displays the predilections of the authors. However, the hope is that it will convey a sense of the intellectual and practical endeavours that, to the authors, constitute systems thinking and that it may aid the exploration of the range of holistic ideas that people have found useful in thinking about and acting in the world.

Non-visual and multisensory BCI systems: present and future

During the past decade, brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) have rapidly developed, both in technological and application domains. However, most of these interfaces rely on the visual modality. Only some research groups have been studying non-visual BCIs, primarily based on auditory and, sometimes, on somatosensory signals. These non-visual BCI approaches are especially useful for severely disabled patients with poor vision. From a broader perspective, multisensory BCIs may offer more versatile and user-friendly paradigms for control and feedback. This chapter describes current systems that are used within auditory and somatosensory BCI research. Four categories of noninvasive BCI paradigms are employed: (1) P300 evoked potentials, (2) steady-state evoked potentials, (3) slow cortical potentials, and (4) mental tasks. Comparing visual and non-visual BCIs, we propose and discuss different possible multisensory combinations, as well as their pros and cons. We conclude by discussing potential future research directions of multisensory BCIs and related research questions

Comparative analysis of performance and stability among composite cross populations, variety mixtures and pure lines of winter wheat in organic and conventional cropping systems

This study investigated the effects of increased genetic diversity in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), either from hybridization across genotypes or from physical mixing of lines, on grain yield, grain quality, and yield stability in different cropping environments. Sets of pure lines (no diversity), chosen for high yielding ability or high quality, were compared with line mixtures (intermediate level of diversity), and lines crossed with each other in composite cross populations (CCPn, high diversity). Additional populations containing male sterility genes (CCPms) to increase outcrossing rates were also tested. Grain yield, grain protein content, and protein yield were measured at four sites (two organically-managed and two conventionally-managed) over three years, using seed harvested locally in each preceding year. CCPn and mixtures out-yielded the mean of the parents by 2.4% and 3.6%, respectively. These yield differences were consistent across genetic backgrounds but partly inconsistent across cropping environments and years. Yield stability measured by environmental variance was higher in CCPn and CCPms than the mean of the parents. An index of yield reliability tended to be higher in CCPn, CCPms and mixtures than the mean of the parents. Lin and Binns’ superiority values of yield and protein yield were consistently and significantly lower (i.e. better) in the CCPs than in the mean of the parents, but not different between CCPs and mixtures. However, CCPs showed greater early ground cover and plant height than mixtures. When compared with the (locally non-predictable) best-yielding pure line, CCPs and mixtures exhibited lower mean yield and somewhat lower yield reliability but comparable superiority values. Thus, establishing CCPs from smaller sets of high-performing parent lines might optimize their yielding ability. On the whole, the results demonstrate that using increased within-crop genetic diversity can produce wheat crops with improved yield stability and good yield reliability across variable and unpredictable cropping environments.

Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Photoluminescence behavior of Eu(3+) ion doped into gamma- and alpha-alumina systems prepared by combustion, ceramic and Pechini methods

Al(2)O(3):Eu(3+)(1%) samples were prepared by combustion, ceramic, and Pechini methods annealed from 400 to 1400 degrees C. XRD patterns indicate that samples heated up to 1000 degrees C present disordered character of activated alumina (gamma-Al(2)O(3)). However, alpha-Al(2)O(3) phase showed high crystallinity and thermostability at 1200-1400 degrees C. The sample characterizations were also carried out by means of infrared spectroscopy (IR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and specific surface areas analysis (BET method). Excitation spectra of Al(2)O(3):Eu(3+) samples present broaden bands attributed to defects of Al(2)O(3) matrices and to LMCT state of O -> Eu(3+), however, the narrow bands are assigned to (7)F(0) -> (5)D(J),(5)H(J) and (5)L(J) transitions of Eu(3+) ion. Emission spectra of samples calcined up to 1000 degrees C show broaden bands for (5)D(0) -> (7)F(J) transitions of Eu(3+) ion suggesting that the rare earth ion is in different symmetry sites showed by inhomogeneous line broadening of bands, confirming the predominance of the gamma-alumina phase. For all samples heated from 1200 to 1400 degrees C the spectra exhibit narrow (5)D(0) -> (7)F(J) transitions of Eu(3+) ion indicating the conversion of gamma to alpha-Al(2)O(3) phases, a high intensity narrow peak around 695 nm assigned to R lines of Cr(3+) ion is shown. Al(2)O(3):Eu(3+) heated up to 1100 degrees C presents an increase in the Omega(2) intensity parameter with the increase of temperatures enhancing the covalent character of metal-donor interaction. The disordered structural systems present the highest values of emission quantum efficiencies (eta). CIE coordinates of Al(2)O(3):Eu(3+) are also discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heat losses and thermal performance of commercial combined solar and pellet heating systems

Various pellet heating systems are marketed in Sweden, some of them in combination with a solar heating system. Several types of pellet heating units are available and can be used for a combined system. This article compares four typical combined solar and pellet heating systems: System 1 and 2 two with a pellet stove, system 3 with a store integrated pellet burner and system 4 with a pellet boiler. The lower efficiency of pellet heaters compared to oil or gas heaters increases the primary energy demand. Consequently heat losses of the various systems have been studied. The systems have been modeled in TRNSYS and simulated with parameters identified from measurements. For almost all systems the flue gas losses are the main heat losses except for system 3 where store heat losses prevail. Relevant are also the heat losses of the burner and the boiler to the ambient. Significant leakage losses are noticed for system 3 and 4. For buildings with an open internal design system 1 is the most efficient solution. Other buildings should preferably apply system 3. The right choice of the system depends also on whether the heater is placed inside or outside of the heated are. A large potential for system optimization exist for all studied systems, which when applied could alter the relative merits of the different system types.

Combined solar and pellet heating systems for single-family houses : How to achieve decreased electricity usage, increased system efficiency and increased solar gains

In Sweden, there are about 0.5 million single-family houses that are heated by electricity alone, and rising electricity costs force the conversion to other heating sources such as heat pumps and wood pellet heating systems. Pellet heating systems for single-family houses are currently a strongly growing market. Future lack of wood fuels is possible even in Sweden, and combining wood pellet heating with solar heating will help to save the bio-fuel resources. The objectives of this thesis are to investigate how the electrically heated single-family houses can be converted to pellet and solar heating systems, and how the annual efficiency and solar gains can be increased in such systems. The possible reduction of CO-emissions by combining pellet heating with solar heating has also been investigated. Systems with pellet stoves (both with and without a water jacket), pellet boilers and solar heating have been simulated. Different system concepts have been compared in order to investigate the most promising solutions. Modifications in system design and control strategies have been carried out in order to increase the system efficiency and the solar gains. Possibilities for increasing the solar gains have been limited to investigation of DHW-units for hot water production and the use of hot water for heating of dishwashers and washing machines via a heat exchanger instead of electricity (heat-fed appliances). Computer models of pellet stoves, boilers, DHW-units and heat-fed appliances have been developed and the parameters for the models have been identified from measurements on real components. The conformity between the models and the measurements has been checked. The systems with wood pellet stoves have been simulated in three different multi-zone buildings, simulated in detail with heat distribution through door openings between the zones. For the other simulations, either a single-zone house model or a load file has been used. Simulations were carried out for Stockholm, Sweden, but for the simulations with heat-fed machines also for Miami, USA. The foremost result of this thesis is the increased understanding of the dynamic operation of combined pellet and solar heating systems for single-family houses. The results show that electricity savings and annual system efficiency is strongly affected by the system design and the control strategy. Large reductions in pellet consumption are possible by combining pellet boilers with solar heating (a reduction larger than the solar gains if the system is properly designed). In addition, large reductions in carbon monoxide emissions are possible. To achieve these reductions it is required that the hot water production and the connection of the radiator circuit is moved to a well insulated, solar heated buffer store so that the boiler can be turned off during the periods when the solar collectors cover the heating demand. The amount of electricity replaced using systems with pellet stoves is very dependant on the house plan, the system design, if internal doors are open or closed and the comfort requirements. Proper system design and control strategies are crucial to obtain high electricity savings and high comfort with pellet stove systems. The investigated technologies for increasing the solar gains (DHW-units and heat-fed appliances) significantly increase the solar gains, but for the heat-fed appliances the market introduction is difficult due to the limited financial savings and the need for a new heat distribution system. The applications closest to market introduction could be for communal laundries and for use in sunny climates where the dominating part of the heat can be covered by solar heating. The DHW-unit is economical but competes with the internal finned-tube heat exchanger which is the totally dominating technology for hot water preparation in solar combisystems for single-family houses.

Annual CO-emissions of combined pellet and solar heating systems

Emissions are an important aspect of a pellet heating system. High carbon monoxide emissions are often caused by unnecessary cycling of the burner when the burner is operated below the lowest combustion power. Combining pellet heating systems with a solar heating system can significantly reduce cycling of the pellet heater and avoid the inefficient summer operation of the pellet heater. The aim of this paper was to study CO-emissions of the different types of systems and to compare the yearly CO-emissions obtained from simulations with the yearly CO-emissions calculated based on the values that are obtained by the standard test methods. The results showed that the yearly CO-emissions obtained from the simulations are significant higher than the yearly CO-emissions calculated based on the standard test methods. It is also shown that for the studied systems the average emissions under these realistic annual conditions were greater than the limit values of two Eco-labels. Furthermore it could be seen that is possible to almost halve the CO-emission if the pellet heater is combined with a solar heating system.

Final report on heat pump developments in WP 4 - MacSheep Deliverable 4.4 : MacSheep -New Materials and Control for a next generation of compact combined Solar and heat pump systems with boosted energetic and exergetic performance

FP7- MacSheep