Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

Compositional dependence properties change in S40Se60-x,Sb-x alloys

Bulk samples of S40Se60,Sb-x (with x=10, 20, 30 and 40 at. %) were prepared from high purity chemicals by melt quenching technique. The samples compositions were confirmed by using energy dispersive analysis of X-rays. X-ray diffraction studies revealed that all the samples have poly-crystalline phase. The variation in optical properties with compositional has been investigated by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The optical band gap of the thin films is found to be decreased with composition. Increasing Sb content was found to affect the structural and optical properties of bulk samples. The intensity of core level spectra changes with the addition of Sb clearly interprets the optical properties change due to compositional variation. The Raman shift and new peak formation in these samples clearly show the structural modifications due to Sb addition.

Structural crossover from nonmodulated to long-period modulated tetragonal phase and anomalous change in ferroelectric properties in the lead-free piezoelectric Na1/2Bi1/2TiO3-BaTiO3

The highly complex structure-property interrelationship in the lead-free piezoelectric (x) Na1/2Bi1/2TiO3 - (1 - x) BaTiO3 is a subject of considerable contemporary debate. Using comprehensive x-ray, neutron diffraction, dielectric, and ferroelectric studies, we have shown the existence of a new criticality in this system at x = 0.80, i.e., well within the conventional tetragonal phase field. This criticality manifests as a nonmonotonic variation of the tetragonality and coercivity and is shown to be associated with a crossover from a nonmodulated tetragonal phase (for x < 0.8) to a long-period modulated tetragonal phase (for x > 0.80). It is shown that the stabilization of long-period modulation introduces a characteristic depolarization temperature in the system. While differing qualitatively from the two-phase model often suggested for the critical compositions of this system, our results support the view with regard to the tendency in perovskites to stabilize long-period modulated structures as a result of complex interplay of antiferrodistortive modes Bellaiche and Iniguez, Phys. Rev. B 88, 014104 ( 2013); Prosandeev, Wang, Ren, Iniguez, ands Bellaiche, Adv. Funct. Mater. 23, 234 (2013)].

Change in Mesoherbivore Browsing Is Mediated by Elephant and Hillslope Position

Elephant are considered major drivers of ecosystems, but their effects within small-scale landscape features and on other herbivores still remain unclear. Elephant impact on vegetation has been widely studied in areas where elephant have been present for many years. We therefore examined the combined effect of short-term elephant presence (< 4 years) and hillslope position on tree species assemblages, resource availability, browsing intensity and soil properties. Short-term elephant presence did not affect woody species assemblages, but did affect height distribution, with greater sapling densities in elephant access areas. Overall tree and stem densities were also not affected by elephant. By contrast, slope position affected woody species assemblages, but not height distributions and densities. Variation in species assemblages was statistically best explained by levels of total cations, Zinc, sand and clay. Although elephant and mesoherbivore browsing intensities were unaffected by slope position, we found lower mesoherbivore browsing intensity on crests with high elephant browsing intensity. Thus, elephant appear to indirectly facilitate the survival of saplings, via the displacement of mesoherbivores, providing a window of opportunity for saplings to grow into taller trees. In the short-term, effects of elephant can be minor and in the opposite direction of expectation. In addition, such behavioural displacement promotes recruitment of saplings into larger height classes. The interaction between slope position and elephant effect found here is in contrast with other studies, and illustrates the importance of examining ecosystem complexity as a function of variation in species presence and topography. The absence of a direct effect of elephant on vegetation, but the presence of an effect on mesoherbivore browsing, is relevant for conservation areas especially where both herbivore groups are actively managed.

Two-Phase Flow With Phase Change in Porous Channels

Phase change heat transfer in porous media finds applications in various geological flows and modern heat pipes. We present a study to show the effect of phase change on heat transfer in a porous channel. We show that the ratio of Jakob numbers based on wall superheat and inlet fluid subcooling governs the liquid-vapor interface location in the porous channel and below a critical value of the ratio, the liquid penetrates all the way to the extent of the channel in the flow direction. In such cases, the Nusselt number is higher due to the proximity of the liquid-vapor interface to the heat loads. For higher heat loads or lower subcooling of the liquid, the liquid-vapor interface is pushed toward the inlet, and heat transfer occurs through a wider vapor region thus resulting in a lower Nusselt number. This study is relevant in the designing of efficient two-phase heat exchangers such as capillary suction based heat pipes where a prior estimation of the interface location for the maximum heat load is required to ensure that the liquid-vapor interface is always inside the porous block for its operation.

Transient Ventilation Dynamics Following a Change in Strength of a Point Source of Heat

We investigate the transient ventilation flow within a confined ventilated space, with high- and low-level openings, when the strength of a low-level point source of heat is changed instantaneously. The steady-flow regime in the space involves a turbulent buoyant plume, which rises from the point source to a well-mixed warm upper layer. The steady-state height of the interface between this layer and the lower layer of exterior fluid is independent of the heat flux, but the upper layer becomes progressively warmer with heat flux. New analogue laboratory experiments of the transient adjustment between steady states identify that if the heat flux is increased, the continuing plume propagates to the top of the room forming a new, warmer layer. This layer gradually deepens, and as the turbulent plume entrains fluid from the original warm layer, the original layer is gradually depleted and disappears, and a new steady state is established. In contrast, if the source buoyancy flux is decreased, the continuing plume is cooler than the original plume, so that on reaching the interface it is of intermediate density between the original warm layer and the external fluid. The plume supplies a new intermediate layer, which gradually deepens with the continuing flow. In turn, the original upper layer becomes depleted, both as a result of being vented through the upper opening of the space, but also due to some penetrative entrainment of this layer by the plume, as the plume overshoots the interface before falling back to supply the new intermediate layer. We develop quantitative models which are in good accord with our experimental data, by combining classical plume theory with models of the penetrative entrainment for the case of a decrease in heating. Typically, we find that the effect of penetrative entrainment on the density of the intruding layer is relatively weak, provided the change in source strength is sufficiently large. However, penetrative entrainment measurably increases the rate at which the depth of the draining layer decreases. We conclude with a discussion of the importance of these results for the control of naturally ventilated spaces.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Mapping social change in U.S. coastal counties: a social atlas of coastal North Carolina

This document represents a pilot effort to map social change in the coastal United States—a social atlas characterizing changing population, demographic, housing, and economic attributes. This pilot effort focuses on coastal North Carolina. The impetus for this project came from numerous discussions about the usefulness and need for a graphic representation of social change information for U.S. coastal regions. Although the information presented here will be of interest to a broad segment of the coastal community and general public, the intended target audience is coastal natural resource management professionals, Sea Grant Extension staff, urban and regional land-use planners, environmental educators, and other allied constituents interested in the social aspects of how the nation’s coasts are changing. This document has three sections. The first section provides background information about the project. The second section features descriptions of social indicators and depictions of social indicator data for 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, and changes from 1970 to 2000 for all North Carolina coastal counties. The third section contains three case studies describing changes in select social attributes for subsets of counties. (PDF contains 67 pages)