Supply chain risk management: An exploratory research in Brazilian aerospace industry

This paper aimed to analyse supply chain risk factors in aerospace industry. It was conducted an exploratory research at an important Brazilian aerospace company. This company has a major role at the global aerospace industry. Senior managers assessed risk factors such as quality, productivity, supply chain, business strategy, organisation, environmental and natural political, indicators, product management, and information system. Analytic hierarchy process was applied to prioritise these factors. The most relevant were quality and productivity. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Anemia at one year is an independent risk factor of graft survival

Background Post-transplant anemia is multifactorial and highly prevalent. Some studies have associated anemia with mortality and graft failure. The purpose of this study was to assess whether the presence of anemia at 1 year is an independent risk factor of mortality and graft survival. Methods All patients transplanted at a single center who survived at least 1 year after transplantation and showed no graft loss (n = 214) were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at 1 year. Patients were divided into two groups (anemic and nonanemic) based on the presence of anemia (hemoglobin<130 g/l in men and 120 g/l in women). Results Baseline characteristics such as age, gender, type of donor, CKD etiology, rejection, andmismatches were similar in both groups. Creatinine clearance was similar in both anemic and nonanemic groups (69.32 ± 29.8 × 75.69 ± 30.5 ml/mim; P = 0.17). A Kaplan- Meier plot showed significantly poorer death-censored graft survival in the anemic group, P = 0.003. Multivariate analysis revealed that anemic patients had a hazard ratio for the graft loss of 3.85 (95% CI: 1.49-9.96; P = 0.005). Conclusions In this study, anemia at 1 year was independently associated with death-censored graft survival and anemic patients were 3.8-fold more likely to lose the graft. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, B.V.

Corporate risk management and exchange rate volatility in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Pathological and behavioral risk factors for higher serum c-reactive protein concentrations in free-living adults - A Brazilian community-based study

Low-grade chronic systemic inflammation is often associated with chronic non-communicable diseases, and its most frequently used marker, the C-reactive protein (CRP), has become an identifier of such diseases as well as an independent predictor for cardiovascular disorders and mortality. CRP is produced in response to pro-inflammatory signaling and to individual and behavioral factors, leading to pathological states. The aim of this study was to rank the predicting factors of high CRP concentrations in free-living adults from a community-based sample. We evaluated 522 adults (40-84 years old; 381 women) for anthropometric characteristics, dietary intake, clinical and physical tests, and blood analysis. Subjects were assigned to groups, according to CRP concentrations, as normal CRP (G1;<3.0 mg/L; n = 269), high CRP (G2; 3.0-6.0 mg/L; n = 139), and very high CRP (G3; >6.0 mg/dL; n = 116). Statistical comparison between groups used one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests, and prediction of altered values in increasing CRP was evaluated by proportional hazard models (odds ratio). CRP distribution was influenced by gender, body mass index, body and abdominal fatness, blood leukocytes, and neutrophil counts. The higher CRP group was discriminated by the above variables in addition to lower VO2max, serum metabolic syndrome components (triglycerides, glucose, and HDL cholesterol), higher insulin, homeostasis assessment of insulin resistance, uric acid, gamma-GT, and homocysteine. After adjustments, only fatness, blood leukocytes, and hyperglycemia remained as independent predictors for increased serum CRP concentrations. Intervention procedures to treat low-grade chronic inflammation in overweight women would mainly focus on restoring muscle mass and functions in addition to an antioxidant-rich diet. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Profiles of gene polymorphisms in cytokines and toll-like receptors with higher risk for gastric cancer

Background: Chronic inflammation and gastric carcinogenesis show a close association, so gene polymorphisms that modify the intensity of the inflammatory response may contribute to variations in gastric cancer risk. Aims: The purpose of this study was to investigate the combined effect of the pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and toll-like receptors polymorphisms on the chronic gastritis and gastric cancer risk in a Brazilian population sample. Methods: We evaluated 669 DNA samples (200 of gastric cancer [GC], 229 of chronic gastritis [CG], and 240 of healthy individuals [C]). Ten polymorphisms were genotyped: IL-1RN and TLR2 -196 to -174 del using the allele-specific PCR method and TNF-A (rs1800629; rs1799724), TNF-B (rs909253), IL-8 (rs4073; rs2227532), IL-10 (rs1800872) and TLR4 (rs4986790; rs4986791) using PCR-RFLP. Results: Polymorphisms TNF-A-308G/A, IL-8-251A/T, TNF-B + 252A/G and TLR4 + 1196C/T were not associated with risk of any gastric lesion. However, an association with increased risk for GC was observed for polymorphisms IL-1RNL/2 (p < 0.001), TNF-A-857C/T (p = 0.022), IL-8-845T/C (p < 0.001), IL-10-592C/A (p < 0.001), TLR2ins/del (p < 0.001), and TLR4 + 896A/G (p = 0.033). In CG, an association was observed only with polymorphisms IL-1RNL/2 and IL-10-592A/C (p < 0.001 for both). A combined analysis of these six polymorphisms associated with GC revealed a profile with two to four combined genotypes which confer a higher risk of gastric carcinogenesis, with an OR increased 2.95-fold to 50.4-fold, highlighting the combinations IL-1RN2/TNF-A-857T/IL-8-845C, IL-1RN2/IL-8-845C/TLR2del, IL-1RN2/IL-10-592A/TLR4 + 896G, IL-10-592A/TLR2del/ TLR4 + 896G, and IL-1RN2/TNFA-857T/IL8-845C/TLR2del. Conclusions: Our findings evidenced that the combined effect of polymorphisms in genes involved in the inflammatory process may potentiate the risk of gastric cancer, thus emphasizing the importance of evaluating multiple polymorphisms together. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

The relationship between banking market competition and risk-taking: Do size and capitalization matter?

This paper addresses the effects of bank competition on the risk-taking behaviors of banks in 10 Latin American countries between 2003 and 2008. We conduct our empirical approach in two steps. First, we estimate the Boone indicator, which is a measure of competition. We then regress this measure and other explanatory variables on the banking "stability inefficiency" derived simultaneously from the estimation of a stability stochastic frontier. Unlike previous findings, this paper concludes that competition affects risk-taking behavior in a non-linear way as both high and low competition levels enhance financial stability, while we find the opposite effect for average competition. In addition, bank size and capitalization are essential factors in explaining this relationship. On the one hand, the larger a bank is, the more it benefits from competition. On the other hand, a greater capital ratio is advantageous for banks that operate in collusive markets, while capitalization only enhances the stability of larger banks under high and average competition. These results are of extreme importance when considering bank regulations, especially in light of the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analisi e riprogettazione del processo di ict risk management: un caso applicativo in Telecom Italia

Questo lavoro di tesi muove da tematiche relative alla sicurezza IT e risulta dagli otto mesi di lavoro all’interno della funzione Technical Security di Telecom Italia Information Technology. Il compito primario di questa unità di business è ridurre il rischio informatico dei sistemi di Telecom Italia per mezzo dell’attuazione del processo di ICT Risk Management, che coinvolge l’intera organizzazione ed è stato oggetto di una riprogettazione nel corso del 2012. Per estendere tale processo a tutti i sistemi informatici, nello specifico a quelli caratterizzati da non conformità, all’inizio del 2013 è stato avviato il Programma Strutturato di Sicurezza, un aggregato di quattro progetti dalla durata triennale particolarmente articolato e complesso. La pianificazione di tale Programma ha visto coinvolto, tra gli altri, il team di cui ho fatto parte, che ha collaborato con Telecom Italia assolvendo alcune delle funzioni di supporto tipiche dei Project Management Office (PMO).

Compensation, Incentives and Risk: Economic Theory and Russian Practise

Mr. Pechersky set out to examine a specific feature of the employer-employee relationship in Russian business organisations. He wanted to study to what extent the so-called "moral hazard" is being solved (if it is being solved at all), whether there is a relationship between pay and performance, and whether there is a correlation between economic theory and Russian reality. Finally, he set out to construct a model of the Russian economy that better reflects the way it actually functions than do certain other well-known models (for example models of incentive compensation, the Shapiro-Stiglitz model etc.). His report was presented to the RSS in the form of a series of manuscripts in English and Russian, and on disc, with many tables and graphs. He begins by pointing out the different examples of randomness that exist in the relationship between employee and employer. Firstly, results are frequently affected by circumstances outside the employee's control that have nothing to do with how intelligently, honestly, and diligently the employee has worked. When rewards are based on results, uncontrollable randomness in the employee's output induces randomness in their incomes. A second source of randomness involves the outside events that are beyond the control of the employee that may affect his or her ability to perform as contracted. A third source of randomness arises when the performance itself (rather than the result) is measured, and the performance evaluation procedures include random or subjective elements. Mr. Pechersky's study shows that in Russia the third source of randomness plays an important role. Moreover, he points out that employer-employee relationships in Russia are sometimes opposite to those in the West. Drawing on game theory, he characterises the Western system as follows. The two players are the principal and the agent, who are usually representative individuals. The principal hires an agent to perform a task, and the agent acquires an information advantage concerning his actions or the outside world at some point in the game, i.e. it is assumed that the employee is better informed. In Russia, on the other hand, incentive contracts are typically negotiated in situations in which the employer has the information advantage concerning outcome. Mr. Pechersky schematises it thus. Compensation (the wage) is W and consists of a base amount, plus a portion that varies with the outcome, x. So W = a + bx, where b is used to measure the intensity of the incentives provided to the employee. This means that one contract will be said to provide stronger incentives than another if it specifies a higher value for b. This is the incentive contract as it operates in the West. The key feature distinguishing the Russian example is that x is observed by the employer but is not observed by the employee. So the employer promises to pay in accordance with an incentive scheme, but since the outcome is not observable by the employee the contract cannot be enforced, and the question arises: is there any incentive for the employer to fulfil his or her promises? Mr. Pechersky considers two simple models of employer-employee relationships displaying the above type of information symmetry. In a static framework the obtained result is somewhat surprising: at the Nash equilibrium the employer pays nothing, even though his objective function contains a quadratic term reflecting negative consequences for the employer if the actual level of compensation deviates from the expectations of the employee. This can lead, for example, to labour turnover, or the expenses resulting from a bad reputation. In a dynamic framework, the conclusion can be formulated as follows: the higher the discount factor, the higher the incentive for the employer to be honest in his/her relationships with the employee. If the discount factor is taken to be a parameter reflecting the degree of (un)certainty (the higher the degree of uncertainty is, the lower is the discount factor), we can conclude that the answer to the formulated question depends on the stability of the political, social and economic situation in a country. Mr. Pechersky believes that the strength of a market system with private property lies not just in its providing the information needed to compute an efficient allocation of resources in an efficient manner. At least equally important is the manner in which it accepts individually self-interested behaviour, but then channels this behaviour in desired directions. People do not have to be cajoled, artificially induced, or forced to do their parts in a well-functioning market system. Instead, they are simply left to pursue their own objectives as they see fit. Under the right circumstances, people are led by Adam Smith's "invisible hand" of impersonal market forces to take the actions needed to achieve an efficient, co-ordinated pattern of choices. The problem is that, as Mr. Pechersky sees it, there is no reason to believe that the circumstances in Russia are right, and the invisible hand is doing its work properly. Political instability, social tension and other circumstances prevent it from doing so. Mr. Pechersky believes that the discount factor plays a crucial role in employer-employee relationships. Such relationships can be considered satisfactory from a normative point of view, only in those cases where the discount factor is sufficiently large. Unfortunately, in modern Russia the evidence points to the typical discount factor being relatively small. This fact can be explained as a manifestation of aversion to risk of economic agents. Mr. Pechersky hopes that when political stabilisation occurs, the discount factors of economic agents will increase, and the agent's behaviour will be explicable in terms of more traditional models.

The Risk Management of Minimum Return Guarantees

Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.

How does country risk matter for foreign direct investment?

In this paper, we aim to identify the political and financial risk components that matter most for the activities of multinational corporations. Our paper is the first paper to comprehensively examine the impact of various components of not only political risk but also financial risk on inward FDI, from both long-run and short-run perspectives. Using a sample of 93 countries (including 60 developing countries) for the period 1985-2007, we find that among the political risk components, government stability, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, external conflict, corruption, religious tensions, democratic accountability, and ethnic tensions have a close association with FDI flows. In particular, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, and external conflict appear to be the most influential components of political risk in attracting foreign investment. Among the financial risk components, only exchange rate stability yields statistically significant positive coefficients when estimated only for developing countries. In contrast, current account as a percentage of exports of goods and services, foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, net international liquidity as the number of months of import cover, and current account as a percentage of GDP yield negative coefficients in some specifications. Thus, multinationals do not seem to consider seriously the financial risk of the host country.

Survey and brain storming studies about machines, constructions, human and environmental risk consideration in the careers of the Universidad Politécnica of Madrid

The Universidad Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) includes schools and faculties that were for engineering degrees, architecture and computer science, that are now in a quick EEES Bolonia Plan metamorphosis getting into degrees, masters and doctorate structures. They are focused towards action in machines, constructions, enterprises, that are subjected to machines, human and environment created risks. These are present in actions such as use loads, wind, snow, waves, flows, earthquakes, forces and effects in machines, vehicles behavior, chemical effects, and other environmental factors including effects of crops, cattle and beasts, forests, and varied essential economic and social disturbances. Emphasis is for authors in this session more about risks of natural origin, such as for hail, winds, snow or waves that are not exactly known a priori, but that are often considered with statistical expected distributions giving extreme values for convenient return periods. These distributions are known from measures in time, statistic of extremes and models about hazard scenarios and about responses of man made constructions or devices. In each engineering field theories were built about hazards scenarios and how to cover for important risks. Engineers must get that the systems they handle, such as vehicles, machines, firms or agro lands or forests, obtain production with enough safety for persons and with decent economic results in spite of risks. For that risks must be considered in planning, in realization and in operation, and safety margins must be taken but at a reasonable cost. That is a small level of risks will often remain, due to limitations in costs or because of due to strange hazards, and maybe they will be covered by insurance in cases such as in transport with cars, ships or aircrafts, in agro for hail, or for fire in houses or in forests. These and other decisions about quality, security for men or about business financial risks are sometimes considered with Decision Theories models, using often tools from Statistics or operational Research. The authors have done and are following field surveys about risk consideration in the careers in UPM, making deep analysis of curricula taking into account the new structures of degrees in the EEES Bolonia Plan, and they have considered the risk structures offered by diverse schools of Decision theories. That gives an aspect of the needs and uses, and recommendations about improving in the teaching about risk, that may include special subjects especially oriented for each career, school or faculty, so as to be recommended to be included into the curricula, including an elaboration and presentation format using a multi-criteria decision model.