983 resultados para best linear unbiased predictor
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Linear and macrocyclic nitrogen ligands have been found wide application during the years. Nitrogen has a much strong association with transition-metal ions because the electron pair is partucularly available for complexing purposes. We started our investigation with the synthesis of new chiral perazamacrocycles containing four pyrrole rings. This ligand was synthesized by the [2+2]condensation of (R,R)-diaminocyclohexane and dipirranedialdehydes and was tested, after a complexation with Cu(OAc)2, in Henry reactions. The best yields (96%) and higher ee’s (96%) were obtained when the meso-substituent on the dipyrrandialdehyde was a methyl group. The positive influence of the pyrrole-containing macrocyclic structure on the efficiency/enantioselectivity of the catalytic system was demonstrated by comparison with the Henry reactions performed using analogous ligands. Henry product was obtain in good yield but only 73% of ee, when the dialdehyde unit was replaced by a triheteroaromatic dialdehye (furan-pyrrol-furan). Another well known macrocyclic ligand is calix[4]pyrrole. We decided to investigate, in collaboration with Neier’s group, the metal-coordinating properties of calix[2]pyrrole[2]pyrrolidine compounds obtained by the reduction of calix[4]pyrrole. We focused our attention on the reduction conditions, and tested different Pd supported (charcoal, grafite) catalysts at different condition. Concerning the synthesis of linear polyamine ligands. We focused our attention to the synthesis of 2-heteroaryl- and 2,5-diheteroarylpyrrolidines. The reductive amination reaction of diarylketones and aryl-substitutedketo-aldehydes with different chiral amines was exploited to prepare a small library of diastereo-enriched substituted pyrrolidines. We have also described a new synthetic route to 1,2-disubstituted 1,2,3,4-tetrahydropyrrole[1,2-a]pyrazines, which involves the diastereoselective addition of Grignard reagents to chiral oxazolidines. The best diastereoselectivity (98:2) was dependent on the nature of both the chiral auxiliary, (S)-1-phenylglycinol, and the nature of the organometallic reagent (MeMgBr).
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Wir haben die linearen und nichtlinearen optischen Eigenschaften von dünnen Schichten und planaren Wellenleitern aus mehreren konjugierten Polymeren (MEH-PPV und P3AT) und Polymeren mit -Elektronen Systemen in der Seitenkette (PVK und PS) untersucht und verglichen. PVK und PS haben relativ kleine Werte des nichtlinearen Brechungsindex n2 bei 532 nm, nämlich (1,2 ± 0,5)10-14 cm2/W und (2,6 ± 0,5) 10-14 cm2/W.rnWir haben die linearen optischen Konstanten von mehreren P3ATs untersucht, insbesondere den Einfluss der Regioregularität und Kettenlänge der Alkylsubstituenten. Wir haben das am besten geeignete Polymere für Wellenleiter Anwendungen identifiziert, welches P3BT-ra genannt ist. Wir haben die linearen optischen Eigenschaften dünner Schichten des P3BT-ra untersucht, die mit Spincoating aus verschiedenen Lösungsmitteln mit unterschiedlichen Siedetemperaturen präparieret wurden. Wir haben festgestellt, dass P3BT-ra Filme aus Toluol-Lösungen die am besten geeigneten Wellenleiter für die intensitätsabhängigen Prismen-Kopplungs Experimente sind, weil diese geringe Wellenleiterdämpfungsverluste bei = 1064 nm haben. rnWir haben die Dispersionen des Wellenleiterdämfungsverlustes gw, des nichtlinearen Brechungsindex n2 und des nichtlinearen Absorptionskoeffizienten 2 von Wellenleitern aus P3BT-ra im Bereich von 700 - 1500 nm gemessen. Wir haben große Werte des nichtlinearen Brechungsindex bis 1,5x10-13 cm2/W bei 1150 nm beobachtet. Wir haben gefunden, dass die Gütenkriterien (“figures of merit“) für rein optische Schalter im Wellenlängebereich 1050 - 1200 nm erfüllt sind. Dieser Bereich entspricht dem niederenergetischen Ausläufer der Zwei-Photonen-Absorption. Die Gütekriterien von P3BT-ra gehören zu den besten der bisher bekannten Werte von konjugierten Polymeren.rnWir haben gefunden, dass P3BT-ra ein vielversprechender Kandidat für integriert-optische Schalter ist, weil es eine gute Kombination aus großer Nichtlinearität dritter Ordnung, geringen Wellenleiterdämpfungverlusten und ausreichender Photostabilität zeigt. rnWir haben einen Vergleich der gemessenen Dispersion von gw, n2 und 2 mit der Theorie durchgeführt. Durch Kurvenanpassung der Dispersion von gw haben wir gefunden, dass Rayleigh-Streuung der dominierende Dämpfungsmechanismus in MEH-PPV und P3BT-ra Wellenleitern ist. Ein quantenmechanischer Ansatz wurde zur Berechnung der nichtlinearen Suszeptibilität dritter Ordnung (3) verwendet, um die gemessenen Spektren von n2 und 2 von P3BT-ra und MEH-PPV zu simulieren. Dies kann erklären, dass sättigbare Absorption und Zwei-Photonen Absorption die hauptsächlichen Effekte sind, welche die Dispersion von n2 und 2 verursachen. rn
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The use of linear programming in various areas has increased with the significant improvement of specialized solvers. Linear programs are used as such to model practical problems, or as subroutines in algorithms such as formal proofs or branch-and-cut frameworks. In many situations a certified answer is needed, for example the guarantee that the linear program is feasible or infeasible, or a provably safe bound on its objective value. Most of the available solvers work with floating-point arithmetic and are thus subject to its shortcomings such as rounding errors or underflow, therefore they can deliver incorrect answers. While adequate for some applications, this is unacceptable for critical applications like flight controlling or nuclear plant management due to the potential catastrophic consequences. We propose a method that gives a certified answer whether a linear program is feasible or infeasible, or returns unknown'. The advantage of our method is that it is reasonably fast and rarely answers unknown'. It works by computing a safe solution that is in some way the best possible in the relative interior of the feasible set. To certify the relative interior, we employ exact arithmetic, whose use is nevertheless limited in general to critical places, allowing us to rnremain computationally efficient. Moreover, when certain conditions are fulfilled, our method is able to deliver a provable bound on the objective value of the linear program. We test our algorithm on typical benchmark sets and obtain higher rates of success compared to previous approaches for this problem, while keeping the running times acceptably small. The computed objective value bounds are in most of the cases very close to the known exact objective values. We prove the usability of the method we developed by additionally employing a variant of it in a different scenario, namely to improve the results of a Satisfiability Modulo Theories solver. Our method is used as a black box in the nodes of a branch-and-bound tree to implement conflict learning based on the certificate of infeasibility for linear programs consisting of subsets of linear constraints. The generated conflict clauses are in general small and give good rnprospects for reducing the search space. Compared to other methods we obtain significant improvements in the running time, especially on the large instances.
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Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn
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In the present study, telomere length, telomerase activity, the mutation load of immunoglobulin variable heavy chain (IGHV) genes, and established prognostic factors were investigated in 78 patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) to determine the impact of telomere biology on the pathogenesis of CLL. Telomere length was measured by an automated multi-colour flow-FISH, and an age-independent delta telomere length ( TL) was calculated. CLL with unmutated IGHV genes was associated with shorter telomeres (p = 0.002). Furthermore, we observed a linear correlation between the frequency of IGHV gene mutations and elongation of telomeres (r = 0.509, p < 0.001). With respect to prognosis, a threshold TL of -4.2 kb was the best predictor for progression-free and overall survival. TL was not significantly altered over time or with therapy. The correlation between the mutational load in IGHV genes and the TL in CLL might reflect the initial telomere length of the putative cell of origin (pre- versus post-germinal center B cells). In conclusion, the TL is a reliable prognostic marker for patients with CLL. Short telomeres and high telomerase activity as occurs in some patients with CLL with a worse prognosis might be an ideal target for treatment with telomerase inhibitors.
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The analysis of short segments of noise-contaminated, multivariate real world data constitutes a challenge. In this paper we compare several techniques of analysis, which are supposed to correctly extract the amount of genuine cross-correlations from a multivariate data set. In order to test for the quality of their performance we derive time series from a linear test model, which allows the analytical derivation of genuine correlations. We compare the numerical estimates of the four measures with the analytical results for different correlation pattern. In the bivariate case all but one measure performs similarly well. However, in the multivariate case measures based on the eigenvalues of the equal-time cross-correlation matrix do not extract exclusively information about the amount of genuine correlations, but they rather reflect the spatial organization of the correlation pattern. This may lead to failures when interpreting the numerical results as illustrated by an application to three electroencephalographic recordings of three patients suffering from pharmacoresistent epilepsy.
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The aim of this study is to develop a new simple method for analyzing one-dimensional transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) mapping studies in humans. Motor evoked potentials (MEP) were recorded from the abductor pollicis brevis (APB) muscle during stimulation at nine different positions on the scalp along a line passing through the APB hot spot and the vertex. Non-linear curve fitting according to the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was performed on the averaged amplitude values obtained at all points to find the best-fitting symmetrical and asymmetrical peak functions. Several peak functions could be fitted to the experimental data. Across all subjects, a symmetric, bell-shaped curve, the complementary error function (erfc) gave the best results. This function is characterized by three parameters giving its amplitude, position, and width. None of the mathematical functions tested with less or more than three parameters fitted better. The amplitude and position parameters of the erfc were highly correlated with the amplitude at the hot spot and with the location of the center of gravity of the TMS curve. In conclusion, non-linear curve fitting is an accurate method for the mathematical characterization of one-dimensional TMS curves. This is the first method that provides information on amplitude, position and width simultaneously.
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In linear mixed models, model selection frequently includes the selection of random effects. Two versions of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) have been used, based either on the marginal or on the conditional distribution. We show that the marginal AIC is no longer an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Akaike information, and in fact favours smaller models without random effects. For the conditional AIC, we show that ignoring estimation uncertainty in the random effects covariance matrix, as is common practice, induces a bias that leads to the selection of any random effect not predicted to be exactly zero. We derive an analytic representation of a corrected version of the conditional AIC, which avoids the high computational cost and imprecision of available numerical approximations. An implementation in an R package is provided. All theoretical results are illustrated in simulation studies, and their impact in practice is investigated in an analysis of childhood malnutrition in Zambia.
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The response to beta(2)-agonists differs between asthmatics and has been linked to subsequent adverse events, even death. Possible determinants include beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype at position 16, lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness. Fluctuation analysis provides a simple parameter alpha measuring the complex correlation properties of day-to-day peak expiratory flow. The present study investigated whether alpha predicts clinical response to beta(2)-agonist treatment, taking into account other conventional predictors. Analysis was performed on previously published twice-daily peak expiratory flow measurements in 66 asthmatic adults over three 6-month randomised order treatment periods: placebo, salbutamol and salmeterol. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the association between alpha during the placebo period and response to treatment (change in the number of days with symptoms), taking into account other predictors namely beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype, lung function and its variability, and airway hyperresponsiveness. The current authors found that alpha measured during the placebo period considerably improved the prediction of response to salmeterol treatment, taking into account genotype, lung function or its variability, or airway hyperresponsiveness. The present study provides further evidence that response to beta(2)-agonists is related to the time correlation properties of lung function in asthma. The current authors conclude that fluctuation analysis of lung function offers a novel predictor to identify patients who may respond well or poorly to treatment.
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This paper treats the problem of setting the inventory level and optimizing the buffer allocation of closed-loop flow lines operating under the constant-work-in-process (CONWIP) protocol. We solve a very large but simple linear program that models an entire simulation run of a closed-loop flow line in discrete time to determine a production rate estimate of the system. This approach introduced in Helber, Schimmelpfeng, Stolletz, and Lagershausen (2011) for open flow lines with limited buffer capacities is extended to closed-loop CONWIP flow lines. Via this method, both the CONWIP level and the buffer allocation can be optimized simultaneously. The first part of a numerical study deals with the accuracy of the method. In the second part, we focus on the relationship between the CONWIP inventory level and the short-term profit. The accuracy of the method turns out to be best for such configurations that maximize production rate and/or short-term profit.
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PURPOSE The ironman (IM) triathlon is a popular ultraendurance competition, consisting of 3.8 km of swimming, 180.2 km of cycling, and 42.2 km of running. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictors of IM race time, comparing echocardiographic findings, anthropometric measures, and training characteristics. METHODS Amateur IM athletes (ATHL) participating in the Zurich IM race in 2010 were included. Participants were examined the day before the race by a comprehensive echocardiographic examination. Moreover, anthropometric measurements were obtained the same day. During the 3 months before the race, each IM-ATHL maintained a detailed training diary. Recorded data were related to total IM race time. RESULTS Thirty-eight IM finishers (mean ± SD age = 38 ± 9 yr, 32 men [84%]) were evaluated. Total race time was 684 ± 89 min (mean ± SD). For right ventricular fractional area change (45% ± 7%, Spearman ρ = -0.33, P = 0.05), a weak correlation with race time was observed. Race performance exhibited stronger associations with percent body fat (15.2 ± 5.6%, ρ = 0.56, P = 0.001), speed in running training (11.7 ± 1.2 km · h(-1), ρ = -0.52, P = 0.002), and left ventricular myocardial mass index (98 ± 24 g · m(-2), ρ = -0.42, P = 0.009). The strongest association was found between race time and right ventricular end-diastolic area (22 ± 4 cm2, ρ = -0.64, P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, right ventricular end-diastolic area (β = -16.7, 95% confidence interval = -27.3 to -6.1, P = 0.003) and percent body fat (β = 6.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.1-12.6, P = 0.02) were independently predictive of IM race time. CONCLUSIONS In amateur IM-ATHL, RV end-diastolic area and percent body fat were independently related to race performance. RV end-diastolic area was the strongest predictor of race time. The role of the RV in endurance exercise may thus be more important than previously thought and needs to be further studied.
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The early phase of psychotherapy has been regarded as a sensitive period in the unfolding of psychotherapy leading to positive outcomes. However, there is disagreement about the degree to which early (especially relationship-related) session experiences predict outcome over and above initial levels of distress and early response to treatment. The goal of the present study was to simultaneously examine outcome at post treatment as a function of (a) intake symptom and interpersonal distress as well as early change in well-being and symptoms, (b) the patient's early session-experiences, (c) the therapist's early session-experiences/interventions, and (d) their interactions. The data of 430 psychotherapy completers treated by 151 therapists were analyzed using hierarchical linear models. Results indicate that early positive intra- and interpersonal session experiences as reported by patients and therapists after the sessions explained 58% of variance of a composite outcome measure, taking intake distress and early response into account. All predictors (other than problem-activating therapists' interventions) contributed to later treatment outcomes if entered as single predictors. However, the multi-predictor analyses indicated that interpersonal distress at intake as well as the early interpersonal session experiences by patients and therapists remained robust predictors of outcome. The findings underscore that early in therapy therapists (and their supervisors) need to understand and monitor multiple interconnected components simultaneously
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Background Non-adherence is one of the strongest predictors of therapeutic failure in HIV-positive patients. Virologic failure with subsequent emergence of resistance reduces future treatment options and long-term clinical success. Methods Prospective observational cohort study including patients starting new class of antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2003 and 2010. Participants were naïve to ART class and completed ≥1 adherence questionnaire prior to resistance testing. Outcomes were development of any IAS-USA, class-specific, or M184V mutations. Associations between adherence and resistance were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by ART class. Results Of 314 included individuals, 162 started NNRTI and 152 a PI/r regimen. Adherence was similar between groups with 85% reporting adherence ≥95%. Number of new mutations increased with increasing non-adherence. In NNRTI group, multivariable models indicated a significant linear association in odds of developing IAS-USA (odds ratio (OR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-2.67) or class-specific (OR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.00-2.70) mutations. Levels of drug resistance were considerably lower in PI/r group and adherence was only significantly associated with M184V mutations (OR 8.38, 95% CI: 1.26-55.70). Adherence was significantly associated with HIV RNA in PI/r but not NNRTI regimens. Conclusion Therapies containing PI/r appear more forgiving to incomplete adherence compared with NNRTI regimens, which allow higher levels of resistance, even with adherence above 95%. However, in failing PI/r regimens good adherence may prevent accumulation of further resistance mutations and therefore help to preserve future drug options. In contrast, adherence levels have little impact on NNRTI treatments once the first mutations have emerged.
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This study compared three body measurements, height, hip width (bitrochanteric) and foot length, in 120 Hispanic women who had their first birth by cesarean section (N = 60) or by spontaneous vaginal delivery (N = 60). The objective of the study was to see if there were differences in these measurements that could be useful in predicting cephalopelvic disproportion. Data were collected from two public hospitals in Houston Texas over a 10 month period from December 1994 to October 1995. The statistical technique used to evaluate the measures was discriminant analysis.^ Women who delivered by cesarean section were older, shorter, had shorter feet and delivered heavier infants. There were no differences in the bitrochanteric widths of the women or in the mean gestational age or Apgar scores of the infants.^ Significantly more of the mothers and infants were ill following cesarean section delivery. Maternal illness was usually infection; infant illness was primarily infection or respiratory difficulties.^ Discriminant analysis is a technique which allows for classification and prediction to which group a particular entity will belong given a certain set of variables. Using discriminant analysis, with a probability of cesarean section 50 percent, the best combination to classify who would have a cesarean section was height and hip width, correctly classifying 74.2 percent of those who needed surgery. When the probability of cesarean section was 10 percent and probability of vaginal delivery was 90 percent, the best predictor of who would need operative delivery was height, hip width and age, correctly classifying 56.2 percent. In the population from which the study participants were selected the incidence of cephalopelvic disproportion was low, approximately 1 percent.^ With the technologic assistance available in most of the developed world, it is likely that the further pursuit of different measures and their use would not be of much benefit in attempting to predict and diagnose disproportion. However, in areas of the world where much of obstetrics is "hands on", the availability of technology extremely limited, and the incidence of disproportion larger, the use of anthropometric measures might be useful and of some potential benefit. ^
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We examined outcomes and trends in surgery and radiation use for patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer, for whom optimal treatment isn't clear. Trends in surgery and radiation for patients with T1-T3N1M0 squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the mid or distal esophagus in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1998 to 2008 were analyzed using generalized linear models including year as predictor; Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results doesn't record chemotherapy data. Local treatment was unimodal if patients had only surgery or radiation and bimodal if they had both. Five-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using propensity-score adjusted Cox proportional-hazard models. Overall 5-year survival for the 3295 patients identified (mean age 65.1 years, standard deviation 11.0) was 18.9% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-20.7). Local treatment was bimodal for 1274 (38.7%) and unimodal for 2021 (61.3%) patients; 1325 (40.2%) had radiation alone and 696 (21.1%) underwent only surgery. The use of bimodal therapy (32.8-42.5%, P = 0.01) and radiation alone (29.3-44.5%, P < 0.001) increased significantly from 1998 to 2008. Bimodal therapy predicted improved CSS (hazard ratios [HR]: 0.68, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 0.58, P < 0.001) compared with unimodal therapy. For the first 7 months (before survival curve crossing), CSS after radiation therapy alone was similar to surgery alone (HR: 0.86, P = 0.12) while OS was worse for surgery only (HR: 0.70, P = 0.001). However, worse CSS (HR: 1.43, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.46, P < 0.001) after that initial timeframe were found for radiation therapy only. The use of radiation to treat locally advanced mid and distal esophageal cancers increased from 1998 to 2008. Survival was best when both surgery and radiation were used.