Invariant risk attitudes

Concepts of constant absolute risk aversion and constant relative risk aversion have proved useful in the analysis of choice under uncertainty, but are quite restrictive, particularly when they are imposed jointly. A generalization of constant risk aversion, referred to as invariant risk aversion is developed. Invariant risk aversion is closely related to the possibility of representing preferences over state-contingent income vectors in terms of two parameters, the mean and a linearly homogeneous, translation-invariant index of riskiness. The best-known index with such properties is the standard deviation. The properties of the capital asset pricing model, usually expressed in terms of the mean and standard deviation, may be extended to the case of general invariant preferences. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumption habit and international stock returns

We use the consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation to study the predictability and cross-section of returns from the international equity markets. We find that the predictability of returns from many developed countries' equity markets is explained in part by changing prices of risks associated with consumption relative to habit at the world as well as local levels. We also provide an exploratory investigation of the cross-sectional implications of the model under the complete world market integration hypothesis and find that the model performs mildly better than the traditional consumption-based model. the unconditional and conditional world CAPMs and a three-factor international asset pricing model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Conditional performance evaluation and the relevance of money flows for Australian international equity funds

This paper assesses the importance of fund flows in the performance evaluation of Australian international equity funds. Two concepts of fund flows are considered in the context of a conditional asset pricing model. The first measure is net fund flow relative to fund size and the second is net fund flow relative to sector flows. We find that incorporating a fund flow measure relative to the sector flow results in a reduction of measured perverse market timing. The results indicate that, at the individual fund level, cash flows are relevant in assessing management outcomes.

Relationship between franking credits and the market risk premium

In a dividend imputation tax system, equity investors have three potential sources of return: dividends, capital gains and franking (tax) credits. However, the standard procedures for estimating the market risk premium (MRP) for use in the capital asset pricing model, ignore the value of franking credits. Officer (1994) notes that if franking credits do affect the corporate cost of capital, their value must be added to the standard estimates of MRP. In the present paper, we explicitly derive the relationship between the value of franking credits (gamma) and the MRP. We show that the standard parameter estimates that have been adopted in practice (especially by Australian regulators) violate this deterministic mathematical relationship. We also show how information on dividend yields and effective tax rates bounds the values that can be reasonably used for gamma and the MRP. We make recommendations for how estimates of the MRP should be adjusted to reflect the value of franking credits in an internally consistent manner.

The risk premium for equity: implications for resource allocation, welfare and policy

Analysis of the equity premium puzzle has focused on private sector capital markets. The object of this paper is to consider the welfare and policy implications of each of the broad classes of explanations of the equity premium puzzle. As would be expected, the greater the deviation from the first-best outcome implied by a given explanation of the equity premium puzzle, the more interventionist are the implied policy conclusions. Nevertheless, even explanations of the equity premium puzzle consistent with a general consumption-based asset pricing model have important welfare and policy implications.

A study of stock market linkages between the US and frontier countries

My dissertation investigates the financial linkages and transmission of economic shocks between the US and the smallest emerging markets (frontier markets). The first chapter sets up an empirical model that examines the impact of US market returns and conditional volatility on the returns and conditional volatilities of twenty-one frontier markets. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood; utilizes the GARCH model of errors, and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. We find limited, but statistically significant exposure of Frontier markets to shocks from the US. Our results suggest that it is not the lagged US market returns that have impact; rather it is the expected US market returns that influence frontier market returns The second chapter sets up an empirical time-varying parameter (TVP) model to explore the time-variation in the impact of mean US returns on mean Frontier market returns. The model utilizes the Kalman filter algorithm as well as the GARCH model of errors and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. The TVP model detects statistically significant time-variation in the impact of US returns and low, but statistically and quantitatively important impact of US market conditional volatility. The third chapter studies the risk-return relationship in twenty Frontier country stock markets by setting up an international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The systematic risk in this model comes from covariance of Frontier market stock index returns with world returns. Both the systematic risk and risk premium are time-varying in our model. We also incorporate own country variances as additional determinants of Frontier country returns. Our results suggest statistically significant impact of both world and own country risk in explaining Frontier country returns. Time-variation in the world risk premium is also found to be statistically significant for most Frontier market returns. However, own country risk is found to be quantitatively more important.

A Critical Review of the Implied Cost of Equity: A New Way to Estimate the Expected Return

For the last three decades, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has been a dominant model to calculate expected return. In early 1990% Fama and French (1992) developed the Fama and French Three Factor model by adding two additional factors to the CAPM. However even with these present models, it has been found that estimates of the expected return are not accurate (Elton, 1999; Fama &French, 1997). Botosan (1997) introduced a new approach to estimate the expected return. This approach employs an equity valuation model to calculate the internal rate of return (IRR) which is often called, 'implied cost of equity capital" as a proxy of the expected return. This approach has been gaining in popularity among researchers. A critical review of the literature will help inform hospitality researchers regarding the issue and encourage them to implement the new approach into their own studies.

Evidence of the heterogeneous market hypothesis using wavelet multi -resolution analysis

In finance literature many economic theories and models have been proposed to explain and estimate the relationship between risk and return. Assuming risk averseness and rational behavior on part of the investor, the models are developed which are supposed to help in forming efficient portfolios that either maximize (minimize) the expected rate of return (risk) for a given level of risk (rates of return). One of the most used models to form these efficient portfolios is the Sharpe's Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the development of this model it is assumed that the investors have homogeneous expectations about the future probability distribution of the rates of return. That is, every investor assumes the same values of the parameters of the probability distribution. Likewise financial volatility homogeneity is commonly assumed, where volatility is taken as investment risk which is usually measured by the variance of the rates of return. Typically the square root of the variance is used to define financial volatility, furthermore it is also often assumed that the data generating process is made of independent and identically distributed random variables. This again implies that financial volatility is measured from homogeneous time series with stationary parameters. In this dissertation, we investigate the assumptions of homogeneity of market agents and provide evidence for the case of heterogeneity in market participants' information, objectives, and expectations about the parameters of the probability distribution of prices as given by the differences in the empirical distributions corresponding to different time scales, which in this study are associated with different classes of investors, as well as demonstrate that statistical properties of the underlying data generating processes including the volatility in the rates of return are quite heterogeneous. In other words, we provide empirical evidence against the traditional views about homogeneity using non-parametric wavelet analysis on trading data, The results show heterogeneity of financial volatility at different time scales, and time-scale is one of the most important aspects in which trading behavior differs. In fact we conclude that heterogeneity as posited by the Heterogeneous Markets Hypothesis is the norm and not the exception.

Measuring House Price Bubbles

We thank John Clapp, Martijn Dröes, Mika Kortelainen, and Song Shi for helpful comments. Financial support from the Academy of Finland, the OP‐Pohjola Group Research Foundation, the Kluuvi Foundation, and the Emil Aaltonen Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.

Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mispriced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

The benefits of diversification from international real estate securities are generally well established. However, the drivers of international real estate securities returns are insufficiently understood. We jointly examine the empirical implications of three major international asset pricing models that account for broad macroeconomic risk factors. In addition, we develop the hypothesis that an indicator of mispriced credit is significant in explaining the time series variation in international real estate securities returns. We employ the returns generated by a large sample of firms from 20 countries over the period 1999 to 2011 to test our hypothesis. We find support for the predictions of the major international asset pricing models. We also find evidence in favour of our hypothesised link between local credit conditions and the performance of international real estate securities.

Future Earnings Growth Volatility and the Value Premium

The value premium is well established in empirical asset pricing, but to date there is little understanding as to its fundamental drivers. We use a stochastic earnings valuation model to establish a direct link between the volatility of future earnings growth and firm value. We illustrate that risky earnings growth affects growth and value firms differently. We provide empirical evidence that the volatility of future earnings growth is a significant determinant of the value premium. Using data on individual firms and characteristic-sorted test portfolios, we also find that earnings growth volatility is significant in explaining the cross-sectional variation of stock returns. Our findings imply that the value premium is the rational consequence of accounting for risky earnings growth in the firm valuation process.

La relation rendement en dividendes - risque

Ce mémoire présente une version dividende du Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Selon le modèle développé ici, il existe une relation à l'équilibre entre le rendement en dividendes et le risque systématique. Cette relation est linéaire et négative et peut-être dérivée dans un monde avec ou sans impôt. Une application de ce modèle est possible lorsqu'on évalue la valeur théorique d'une action ordinaire à l'aide du taux net d'actualisation. Au total, le test empirique indique qu'il y a une concordance observable entre les implications majeures du modèle et les faits.

THE COSTS OF RAISING EQUITY RATIO FOR BANKS Evidence from publicly listed banks operating in Finland

The solvency rate of banks differs from the other corporations. The equity rate of a bank is lower than it is in corporations of other field of business. However, functional banking industry has huge impact on the whole society. The equity rate of a bank needs to be higher because that makes the banking industry more stable as the probability of the banks going under will decrease. If a bank goes belly up, the government will be compensating the deposits since it has granted the bank’s depositors a deposit insurance. This means that the payment comes from the tax payers in the last resort. Economic conversation has long concentrated on the costs of raising equity ratio. It has been a common belief that raising equity ratio also increases the banks’ funding costs in the same phase and these costs will be redistributed to the banks customers as higher service charges. Regardless of the common belief, the actual reaction of the funding costs to the higher equity ratio has been studied only a little in Europe and no study has been constructed in Finland. Before it can be calculated whether the higher stability of the banking industry that is caused by the raise in equity levels compensates the extra costs in funding costs, it must be calculated how much the actual increase in the funding costs is. Currently the banking industry is controlled by complex and heavy regulation. To maintain such a complex system inflicts major costs in itself. This research leans on the Modigliani and Miller theory, which shows that the finance structure of a firm is irrelevant to their funding costs. In addition, this research follows the calculations of Miller, Yang ja Marcheggianon (2012) and Vale (2011) where they calculate the funding costs after the doubling of specific banks’ equity ratios. The Finnish banks studied in this research are Nordea and Danske Bank because they are the two largest banks operating in Finland and they both also have the right company form to able the calculations. To calculate the costs of halving their leverages this study used the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The halving of the leverage of Danske Bank raised its funding costs for 16—257 basis points depending on the method of assessment. For Nordea the increase in funding costs was 11—186 basis points when its leverage was halved. On the behalf of the results found in this study it can be said that the doubling of an equity ratio does not increase the funding costs of a bank one by one. Actually the increase is quite modest. More solvent banks would increase the stability of the banking industry enormously while the increase in funding costs is low. If the costs of bank regulation exceeds the increase in funding costs after the higher equity ratio, it can be thought that this is the better way of stabilizing the banking industry rather than heavy regulation.

THE COSTS OF RAISING EQUITY RATIO FOR BANKS Evidence from publicly listed banks operating in Finland

The solvency rate of banks differs from the other corporations. The equity rate of a bank is lower than it is in corporations of other field of business. However, functional banking industry has huge impact on the whole society. The equity rate of a bank needs to be higher because that makes the banking industry more stable as the probability of the banks going under will decrease. If a bank goes belly up, the government will be compensating the deposits since it has granted the bank’s depositors a deposit insurance. This means that the payment comes from the tax payers in the last resort. Economic conversation has long concentrated on the costs of raising equity ratio. It has been a common belief that raising equity ratio also increases the banks’ funding costs in the same phase and these costs will be redistributed to the banks customers as higher service charges. Regardless of the common belief, the actual reaction of the funding costs to the higher equity ratio has been studied only a little in Europe and no study has been constructed in Finland. Before it can be calculated whether the higher stability of the banking industry that is caused by the raise in equity levels compensates the extra costs in funding costs, it must be calculated how much the actual increase in the funding costs is. Currently the banking industry is controlled by complex and heavy regulation. To maintain such a complex system inflicts major costs in itself. This research leans on the Modigliani and Miller theory, which shows that the finance structure of a firm is irrelevant to their funding costs. In addition, this research follows the calculations of Miller, Yang ja Marcheggianon (2012) and Vale (2011) where they calculate the funding costs after the doubling of specific banks’ equity ratios. The Finnish banks studied in this research are Nordea and Danske Bank because they are the two largest banks operating in Finland and they both also have the right company form to able the calculations. To calculate the costs of halving their leverages this study used the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The halving of the leverage of Danske Bank raised its funding costs for 16—257 basis points depending on the method of assessment. For Nordea the increase in funding costs was 11—186 basis points when its leverage was halved. On the behalf of the results found in this study it can be said that the doubling of an equity ratio does not increase the funding costs of a bank one by one. Actually the increase is quite modest. More solvent banks would increase the stability of the banking industry enormously while the increase in funding costs is low. If the costs of bank regulation exceeds the increase in funding costs after the higher equity ratio, it can be thought that this is the better way of stabilizing the banking industry rather than heavy regulation.