Uncertainty assessment approach for composite structures based on global sensitivity indices

The problem of uncertainty propagation in composite laminate structures is studied. An approach based on the optimal design of composite structures to achieve a target reliability level is proposed. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a design domain centred at mean values of random variables, aimed at studying the space variability. The most critical Tsai number, the structural reliability index and the sensitivities are obtained for each UDM design point, using the maximum load obtained from optimal design search. Using the UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on supervised evolutionary learning. Finally, using the developed ANN a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is implemented and the variability of the structural response based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is studied. The GSA is based on the first order Sobol indices and relative sensitivities. An appropriate GSA algorithm aiming to obtain Sobol indices is proposed. The most important sources of uncertainty are identified.

Uncertainty analysis based on sensitivity applied to angle-ply composite structures

This article describes a finite element-based formulation for the statistical analysis of the response of stochastic structural composite systems whose material properties are described by random fields. A first-order technique is used to obtain the second-order statistics for the structural response considering means and variances of the displacement and stress fields of plate or shell composite structures. Propagation of uncertainties depends on sensitivities taken as measurement of variation effects. The adjoint variable method is used to obtain the sensitivity matrix. This method is appropriated for composite structures due to the large number of random input parameters. Dominant effects on the stochastic characteristics are studied analyzing the influence of different random parameters. In particular, a study of the anisotropy influence on uncertainties propagation of angle-ply composites is carried out based on the proposed approach.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Alterations in psychosocial health of people affected by asbestos poisoning

OBJECTIVE To analyze the state of psychosocial and mental health of professionals affected by asbestos.METHODS A cross-sectional study was conducted with 110 professionals working in the Ferrolterra region of Spain, who were affected by asbestos poisoning. This group was compared with a group of 70 shipyard workers with no manifestation of work-related diseases. All the participants were male with a mean age of 67 years. This study was conducted in 2013, between January and June, and used the SCL-90 questionnaire by Derogatis as its primary measure for research. This questionnaire consists of 9 variables that measure psychosomatic symptoms. In addition, an overall index of psychosomatic gravity was calculated. The participants were also asked two questions concerning their overall perception of feeling good. Data were analyzed by ANOVA and logistic regression.RESULTS Participants affected by asbestos poisoning showed high occurrence rates of psychological health variables such as somatization, obsessive-compulsive, interpersonal sensitivity, depression, anxiety, hostility, phobic anxiety, paranoid ideation, psychoticism, and global severity index.CONCLUSIONS Social interaction as a differentiating factor between workers affected by work-related chronic syndromes as compared to healthy participants will possibly aid in the development of intervention programs by improving the social network of affected individuals.

Using test infrastructures for (remote) online evaluation of the sensitivity to SEUs of FPGAs

This paper proposes an online mechanism that can evaluate the sensitivity of single event upsets (SEUs) of field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The online detection mechanism cyclically reads and compares the values form the external and internal configuration memories, taking into account the mask information. This remote detection method also signals any mismatch as a result of a SEU that affects both used and not-used FPGA parts, which maximizes the monitored area. By utilizing an external, Web-accessible controller that is connected to the test infrastructure, the possibility of running the same operation in a remote manner is enabled. Moreover, the need for a local memory to store the mask values is also eliminated.

The effects of parental sensitivity and involvement in caregiving on mother–infant and father–infant attachment in a portuguese sample

In the present longitudinal study, we investigated attachment quality in Portuguese mother–infant and in father–infant dyads, and evaluated whether attachment quality was related to parental sensitivity during parent–infant social interaction or to the amount of time each parent spent with the infant during play and in routine caregiving activities (e.g., feeding, bathing, play). The sample consisted of 82 healthy full-term infants (30 girls, 53 boys, 48 first born), and their mothers and fathers from mostly middle-class households. To assess parental sensitivity, mothers and fathers were independently observed during free play interactions with their infants when infants were 9 and 15 months old. The videotaped interactions were scored by masked coders using the Crittenden’s CARE-Index. When infants were 12 and 18 months old, mother–infant and father–infant dyads were videotaped during an adaptation of Ainsworth’s Strange Situation. Parents also described their level of involvement in infant caregiving activities using a Portuguese version of the McBride and Mills Parent Responsibility Scale. Mothers were rated as being more sensitive than fathers during parent–infant free play at both 9 and 15 months. There also was a higher prevalence of secure attachment in mother–infant versus father–infant dyads at both 12 and 18 months. Attachment security was predicted by the amount of time mothers and fathers were involved in caregiving and play with the infant, and with parents’ behavior during parent–infant free play.

Performing PET/CT studies: do they create anxiety?

Introduction: Anxiety is a common problem in primary care and specialty medical settings. Treating an anxious patient takes more time and adds stress to staff. Unrecognised anxiety may lead to exam repetition, image artifacts and hinder the scan performance. Reducing patient anxiety at the onset is probably the most useful means of minimizing artifactual FDG uptake, both fat brown and skeletal muscle uptake, as well patient movement and claustrophobia. The aim of the study was to examine the effects of information giving on the anxiety levels of patients who are to undergo a PET/CT and whether the patient experience is enhanced with the creation of a guideline. Methodology: Two hundred and thirty two patients were given two questionnaires before and after the procedure to determine their prior knowledge, concerns, expectations and experiences about the study. Verbal information was given by one of the technologists after the completion of the first questionnaire. Results: Our results show that the main causes of anxiety in patients who are having a PET/CT is the fear of the procedure itself, and fear of the results. The patients who suffered from greater anxiety were those who were scanned during the initial stage of a disease. No significant differences were found between the anxiety levels pre procedural and post procedural. Findings with regard to satisfaction show us that the amount of information given before the procedure does not change the anxiety levels and therefore, does not influence patient satisfaction. Conclusions: The performance of a PET/CT scan is an important and statistically generator of anxiety. PET/CT patients are often poorly informed and present with a range of anxieties that may ultimately affect examination quality. The creation of a guideline may reduce the stress of not knowing what will happen, the anxiety created and may increase their satisfaction in the experience of having a PET/CT scan.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF TRACK VIBRATIONS DUE TO VERTICAL STIFFNESS VARIATION IN HIGH-SPEED RAILWAYS

High speed trains, when crossing regions with abrupt changes in vertical stiffness of the track and/or subsoil, may generate excessive ground and track vibrations. There is an urgent need for specific analyses of this problem so as to allow reliable esimates of vibration amplitude. Full understanding of these phenomena will lead to new construction solutions and mitigation of undesirable features. In this paper analytical transient solutions of dynamic response of one-dimensional systems with sudden change of foundation stiffness are derived. Results are expressed in terms of vertical displacement. Sensitivity analysis of the response amplitude is also performed. The analytical expressions presented herein, to the authors’ knowledge, have not been published yet. Although related to one-dimensional cases, they can give useful insight into the problem. Nevertheless, in order to obtain realistic response, vehicle- rail interaction cannot be omitted. Results and conclusions are confirmed using general purpose commercial software ANSYS. In conclusion, this work contributes to a better understanding of the additional vibration phenomenon due to vertical stiffness variation, permitting better control of the train velocity and optimization of the track design.

The sensitivity, specificity and efficiency values of some serological tests used in the diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis

This work reports on the results of double immunodiffusion (ID), counterimmunoelectrophoresis (CIE), complement fixation (CF) and indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) techniques in the serodiagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis. The study was undertaken on four groups of individuals: 46 patients with untreated paracoccidioidomycosis, 22 patients with other deep mycoses, 30 with other infectious diseases (tuberculosis and cutaneous leishmaniasis) and 47 blood donors as negative controls. Data were obtained using Paracoccidioides brasiliensis antigens, i.e.,a yeast culture filtrate for ID, CIE and CF, and a yeast cell suspension for IIF. The sensitivity, specificity and efficiency values were measured according to GALEN & GAMBINO8.The gel precipitation tests (ID and CIE) showed the greatest sensitivity (91.3 and 95.6%, respectively), maximum specificity (100%) and the highest efficiency values when compared to the CF and IIF tests.

Hepatic parasympathetic nerve dysfunction involved in the deregulation of postprandial whole-body insulin sensitivity:a road to diabetes and associated pathologies

FCM: UC Fisiologia - Teses de Doutoramento

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied to the prioritisation of pharmaceuticals as surface water contaminants from wastewater treatment plant direct emissions

In this study, the concentration probability distributions of 82 pharmaceutical compounds detected in the effluents of 179 European wastewater treatment plants were computed and inserted into a multimedia fate model. The comparative ecotoxicological impact of the direct emission of these compounds from wastewater treatment plants on freshwater ecosystems, based on a potentially affected fraction (PAF) of species approach, was assessed to rank compounds based on priority. As many pharmaceuticals are acids or bases, the multimedia fate model accounts for regressions to estimate pH-dependent fate parameters. An uncertainty analysis was performed by means of Monte Carlo analysis, which included the uncertainty of fate and ecotoxicity model input variables, as well as the spatial variability of landscape characteristics on the European continental scale. Several pharmaceutical compounds were identified as being of greatest concern, including 7 analgesics/anti-inflammatories, 3 β-blockers, 3 psychiatric drugs, and 1 each of 6 other therapeutic classes. The fate and impact modelling relied extensively on estimated data, given that most of these compounds have little or no experimental fate or ecotoxicity data available, as well as a limited reported occurrence in effluents. The contribution of estimated model input variables to the variance of freshwater ecotoxicity impact, as well as the lack of experimental abiotic degradation data for most compounds, helped in establishing priorities for further testing. Generally, the effluent concentration and the ecotoxicity effect factor were the model input variables with the most significant effect on the uncertainty of output results.

EPIDEMIOLOGIC SURVEYS OF HISTOPLASMIN AND PARACOCCIDIOIDIN SENSITIVITY IN BRAZIL

We report here the results obtained in epidemiologic surveys of histoplasmosis and paracoccidioidomycosis carried out in Brazil using the histoplasmin and paracoccidioidin delayed hypersensitivity skin tests. Most of these data have not been previously published in scientific journals and are now reported here in two tables respectively concerning histoplasmosis (88 surveys) and paracoccidioidomycosis (58 surveys). The guidelines to be followed in surveys of this nature are also commented upon.

Proposal of abolition of the skin sensitivity test before equine rabies immune globulin application

An epizootic outbreak of rabies occurred in 1995 in Ribeirão Preto, SP, with 58 cases of animal rabies (54 dogs, 3 cats and 1 bat) confirmed by the Pasteur Institute of São Paulo, and one human death. The need to provide care to a large number of people for the application of equine rabies immune globulin (ERIG) prevented the execution of the skin sensitivity test (SST) and often also the execution of desensitization, procedures routinely used up to that time at the Emergency Unit of the University Hospital of the Faculty of Medicine of Ribeirão Preto, University of São Paulo (EU-UHFMRP-USP), a reference hospital for the application of heterologous sera. In view of our positive experience of several years with the abolition of SST and of the use of premedication before the application of antivenom sera, we used a similar schedule for ERIG application. Of the 1489 victims of animal bites, 1054 (71%) received ERIG; no patient was submitted to SST and all received intravenously anti-histamines (anti-H1 + anti-H2) and corticosteroids before the procedure. The patients were kept under observation for 60 to 180 minutes and no adverse reaction was observed. On the basis of these results, since December 1995 ERIG application has been decentralized in Ribeirão Preto and has become the responsibility of the Emergency Unit of the University Hospital and the Central Basic Health Unit, where the same routine is used. Since then, 4216 patients have received ERIG (1818 at the Basic Health Unit and 2398 at the EU-UHFMRP), with no problems. The ideal would be the routine use of human rabies immune globulin (HRIG) in public health programs, but this is problematic, because of their high cost. However, while this does not occur, the use of SST is no longer justified at the time of application of ERIG, in view of the clinical evidence of low predictive value and low sensitivity of SST involving the application of heterologous sera. It is very important to point out that a negative SST result may lead the health team to a feeling of false safety that no adverse reaction will occur, but this is not true for the anaphylactoid reactions. The decision to use premedication, which is based on knowledge about anaphylaxis and on the pharmacology of the medication used, is left to the judgment of health professionals, who should always be prepared for eventual untoward events.

In vitro evaluation of quinidine sensitivity in brazilian Plasmodium falciparum isolates: comparative analysis to quinine and chloroquine

Falciparum malaria represents a serious and an increasing world public health problem due to the acquired parasite's resistance to the most available drugs. In some endemic areas, quinidine, a diastereoisomer of the antimalarial quinine, has been employed for replacing the latter. In order to evaluate the use of quinidine as an alternative to the increasing loss of quinine effectiveness in Brazilian P. falciparum strains, as has been observed in the Amazon area, we have assayed quinidine, quinine and chloroquine. The in vitro microtechnique was employed. All isolates showed to be highly resistant to chloroquine. Resistance to quinine was not noted although high MIC (minimal inhibitory concentration) values have been observed. These data corroborate the decreasing sensitivity to quinine in strains from Brazil. Quinidine showed IC50 from 0.053 to 4.577 mumol/L of blood while IC50 from 0.053 to 8.132 mumol/L of blood was estimated for quinine. Moreover, clearance of the parasitemia was observed in concentrations lower than that used for quinidine in antiarrhythmic therapy, confirming our previous data. The results were similar to African isolate.

Use of Distress and Depression Thermometers to Measure Psychosocial Morbidity Among Southern European Cancer Patients

GOALS OF WORK: Recent literature has indicated the need for rapid evaluation of psychosocial issues secondary to cancer. Because of the problems of routine use of psychometric instruments, short instruments such as visual analogue scales or one-item 0-10 scales have been developed as valid assessment alternatives. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A study was conducted to examine the role of two 0-10 scales in measuring emotional stress (distress thermometer, DT) and depressed mood (mood thermometer, MT), respectively, in a multicenter study carried out in southern European countries (Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland). A convenience sample of 312 cancer outpatients completed the DT and MT and the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS). MAIN RESULTS: DT was more significantly associated HADS anxiety than HADS depression while MT was related both to HADS anxiety and depression. The correlation of MT with HADS was higher than DT. A cutoff point >4 on the DT maximized sensitivity (65%) and specificity (79%) for general psychosocial morbidity while a cutoff >5 identified more severe "caseness" (sensitivity=70%; specificity=73%). On the MT, sensitivity and specificity for general psychosocial morbidity were 85% and 72% by using the cutoff score >3. A score >4 on the MT was associated with a sensitivity of 78% and a specificity of 77% in detecting more severe caseness. CONCLUSIONS: Two simple instruments, the DT and the MT, were found to have acceptable levels of sensitivity and specificity in detecting psychosocial morbidity. Compared to the HADS, however, the mood MT performed better than the DT.