Geospatial analysis of groundwater depth for manual well drilling suitability in the Zinder Region, Niger

Manual and low-tech well drilling techniques have potential to assist in reaching the United Nations' millennium development goal for water in sub-Saharan Africa. This study used publicly available geospatial data in a regression tree analysis to predict groundwater depth in the Zinder region of Niger to identify suitable areas for manual well drilling. Regression trees were developed and tested on a database for 3681 wells in the Zinder region. A tree with 17 terminal leaves provided a range of ground water depth estimates that were appropriate for manual drilling, though much of the tree's complexity was associated with depths that were beyond manual methods. A natural log transformation of groundwater depth was tested to see if rescaling dataset variance would result in finer distinctions for regions of shallow groundwater. The RMSE for a log-transformed tree with only 10 terminal leaves was almost half that of the untransformed 17 leaf tree for groundwater depths less than 10 m. This analysis indicated important groundwater relationships for commonly available maps of geology, soils, elevation, and enhanced vegetation index from the MODIS satellite imaging system.

Comparative analysis of meta-analysis methods: when to use which?

Background: Several meta-analysis methods can be used to quantitatively combine the results of a group of experiments, including the weighted mean difference, statistical vote counting, the parametric response ratio and the non-parametric response ratio. The software engineering community has focused on the weighted mean difference method. However, other meta-analysis methods have distinct strengths, such as being able to be used when variances are not reported. There are as yet no guidelines to indicate which method is best for use in each case. Aim: Compile a set of rules that SE researchers can use to ascertain which aggregation method is best for use in the synthesis phase of a systematic review. Method: Monte Carlo simulation varying the number of experiments in the meta analyses, the number of subjects that they include, their variance and effect size. We empirically calculated the reliability and statistical power in each case Results: WMD is generally reliable if the variance is low, whereas its power depends on the effect size and number of subjects per meta-analysis; the reliability of RR is generally unaffected by changes in variance, but it does require more subjects than WMD to be powerful; NPRR is the most reliable method, but it is not very powerful; SVC behaves well when the effect size is moderate, but is less reliable with other effect sizes. Detailed tables of results are annexed. Conclusions: Before undertaking statistical aggregation in software engineering, it is worthwhile checking whether there is any appreciable difference in the reliability and power of the methods. If there is, software engineers should select the method that optimizes both parameters.

Nitrous oxide emissions from European agriculture - an analysis of variability and drivers of emissions from field experiments

Nitrous oxide emissions from a network of agricultural experiments in Europe were used to explore the relative importance of site and management controls of emissions. At each site, a selection of management interventions were compared within replicated experimental designs in plot-based experiments. Arable experiments were conducted at Beano in Italy, El Encin in Spain, Foulum in Denmark, Logarden in Sweden, Maulde in Belgium CE1, Paulinenaue in Germany, and Tulloch in the UK. Grassland experiments were conducted at Crichton, Nafferton and Peaknaze in the UK, Godollo in Hungary, Rzecin in Poland, Zarnekow in Germany and Theix in France. Nitrous oxide emissions were measured at each site over a period of at least two years using static chambers. Emissions varied widely between sites and as a result of manipulation treatments. Average site emissions (throughout the study period) varied between 0.04 and 21.21 kg N2O-N ha−1yr−1, with the largest fluxes and variability associated with the grassland sites. Total nitrogen addition was found to be the single most important deter- minant of emissions, accounting for 15 % of the variance (using linear regression) in the data from the arable sites (p<0.0001), and 77 % in the grassland sites. The annual emissions from arable sites were significantly greater than those that would be predicted by IPCC default emission fac- tors. Variability of N2O emissions within sites that occurred as a result of manipulation treatments was greater than that resulting from site-to-site and year-to-year variation, highlighting the importance of management interventions in contributing to greenhouse gas mitigation

Analysis of the Optimal Sharing of Construction Risk in Public Procurement Contracts

This paper discusses a model based on the agency theory to analyze the optimal transfer of construction risk in public works contracts. The base assumption is that of a contract between a principal (public authority) and an agent (firm), where the payment mechanism is linear and contains an incentive mechanism to enhance the effort of the agent to reduce construction costs. A theoretical model is proposed starting from a cost function with a random component and assuming that both the public authority and the firm are risk averse. The main outcome of the paper is that the optimal transfer of construction risk will be lower when the variance of errors in cost forecast, the risk aversion of the firm and the marginal cost of public funds are larger, while the optimal transfer of construction risk will grow when the variance of errors in cost monitoring and the risk aversion of the public authority are larger

Identification, retinoid binding, and x-ray analysis of a human retinol-binding protein

Two cellular retinol-binding proteins (CRBP I and II) with distinct tissue distributions and retinoid-binding properties have been recognized thus far in mammals. Here, we report the identification of a human retinol-binding protein resembling type I (55.6% identity) and type II (49.6% identity) CRBPs, but with a unique H residue in the retinoid-binding site and a distinctively different tissue distribution. Additionally, this binding protein (CRBP III) exhibits a remarkable sequence identity (62.2%) with the recently identified ι-crystallin/CRBP of the diurnal gecko Lygodactylus picturatus [Werten, P. J. L., Röll, B., van Alten, D. M. F. & de Jong, W. W. (2000) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 97, 3282–3287 (First Published March 21, 2000; 10.1073/pnas.050500597)]. CRBP III and all-trans-retinol form a complex (Kd ≈ 60 nM), the absorption spectrum of which is characterized by the peculiar fine structure typical of the spectra of holo-CRBP I and II. As revealed by a 2.3-Å x-ray molecular model of apo-CRBP III, the amino acid residues that line the retinol-binding site in CRBP I and II are positioned nearly identically in the structure of CRBP III. At variance with the human CRBP I and II mRNAs, which are most abundant in ovary and intestine, respectively, the CRBP III mRNA is expressed at the highest levels in kidney and liver thus suggesting a prominent role for human CRBP III as an intracellular mediator of retinol metabolism in these tissues.

High resolution ultrastructural mapping of total calcium: electron spectroscopic imaging/electron energy loss spectroscopy analysis of a physically/chemically processed nerve-muscle preparation.

We report on a procedure for tissue preparation that combines thoroughly controlled physical and chemical treatments: quick-freezing and freeze-drying followed by fixation with OsO4 vapors and embedding by direct resin infiltration. Specimens of frog cutaneous pectoris muscle thus prepared were analyzed for total calcium using electron spectroscopic imaging/electron energy loss spectroscopy (ESI/EELS) approach. The preservation of the ultrastructure was excellent, with positive K/Na ratios revealed in the fibers by x-ray microanalysis. Clear, high-resolution EELS/ESI calcium signals were recorded from the lumen of terminal cisternae of the sarcoplasmic reticulum but not from longitudinal cisternae, as expected from previous studies carried out with different techniques. In many mitochondria, calcium was below detection whereas in others it was appreciable although at variable level. Within the motor nerve terminals, synaptic vesicles as well as some cisternae of the smooth endoplasmic reticulum yielded positive signals at variance with mitochondria, that were most often below detection. Taken as a whole, the present study reveals the potential of our experimental approach to map with high spatial resolution the total calcium within individual intracellular organelles identified by their established ultrastructure, but only where the element is present at high levels.

Fluctuation analysis of rotational speeds of the bacterial flagellar motor.

We measured the dependence of the variance in the rotation rate of tethered cells of Escherichia coli on the mean rotation rate over a regime in which the motor generates constant torque. This dependence was compared with that of broken motors. In either case, motor torque was augmented with externally applied torque. We show that, in contrast to broken motors, functioning motors in this regime do not freely rotationally diffuse and that the variance measurements are consistent with the predicted values of a stepping mechanism with exponentially distributed waiting times (a Poisson stepper) that steps approximately 400 times per revolution.

Analysis of the sample interval and study period used to conduct delay studies at signalized intersections. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Multivariate analyses of variance and covariance for simulation studies involving normal time series

Photocopy.

Reflections on the statistical analysis of personality and norms in war, peace, and prejudice: Are deviant minorities the problem?

The compelling quality of the Global Change simulation study (Altemeyer, 2003), in which high RWA (right-wing authoritarianism)/high SDO (social dominance orientation) individuals produced poor outcomes for the planet, rests on the inference that the link between high RWA/SDO scores and disaster in the simulation can be generalized to real environmental and social situations. However, we argue that studies of the Person × Situation interaction are biased to overestimate the role of the individual variability. When variables are operationalized, strongly normative items are excluded because they are skewed and kurtotic. This occurs both in the measurement of predictor constructs, such as RWA, and in the outcome constructs, such as prejudice and war. Analyses of normal linear statistics highlight personality variables such as RWA, which produce variance, and overlook the role of norms, which produce invariance. Where both normative and personality forces are operating, as in intergroup contexts, the linear analysis generates statistics for the sample that disproportionately reflect the behavior of the deviant, antinormative minority and direct attention away from the baseline, normative position. The implications of these findings for the link between high RWA and disaster are discussed.

Cosegregation analysis of natriuretic peptide genes and blood pressure in the spontaneously hypertensive rat

1. The natriuretic peptide precursor A (Nppa) and B (Nppb) genes are candidate genes for hypertension and cardiac hypertrophy in the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR). The purpose of the present study was to determine the role of the Nppa and Nppb genes in the development of hypertension in the SHR. 2. A cohort (n = 162) of F2 segregating intercross animals was established between strains of hypertensive SHR and normotensive Wistar-Kyoto rats. Blood pressure and heart weight were measured in each rat at 12-16 weeks of age. Rats were genotyped using 11 informative microsatellite markers, distributed in the vicinity of the Nppa marker on rat chromosome 5 including an Nppb marker. The phenotype values were compared with genotype using the computer package MAP-MAKER 3.0 (Whitehead Institute, Boston, MA, USA) to determine whether there was a link between the genetic variants of the natriuretic peptide family and blood pressure or cardiac hypertrophy. 3. A strong correlation was observed between the Nppa marker and blood pressure. A quantitative trait locus (QTL) for blood pressure on chromosome 5 was identified between the Nppa locus and the D5Mgh15 marker, less than 2 cM from the Nppa locus. The linkage score for the blood pressure QTL on chromosome 5 was 3.8 and the QTL accounted for 43% of the total variance of systolic blood pressure, 54% of diastolic blood pressure and 59% of mean blood pressure. No association was found between the Nppb gene and blood pressure. This is the first report of linkage between the Nppa marker and blood pressure in the rat. There was no correlation between the Nppa or Nppb genes or other markers in this region and either heart weight or left ventricular weight in F2 rats. 4. These findings suggest the existence of a blood pressure-dependent Nppa marker variant or a gene close to Nppa predisposing to spontaneous hypertension in the rat. It provides a strong foundation for further detailed genetic studies in congenic strains, which may help to narrow down the location of this gene and lead to positional cloning.

Proteomic analysis of k-casein micro-heterogeneity

The proteome of bovine milk is dominated by just six gene products that constitute approximately 95% of milk protein. Nonetheless, over 150 protein spots can be readily detected following two-dimensional electrophoresis of whole milk. Many of these represent isoforms of the major gene products produced through extensive posttranslational modification. Peptide mass fingerprinting of in-gel tryptic digests (using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) in reflectron mode with alpha-cyano-4-hydroxycinnamic acid as the matrix) identified 10 forms of K-casein with isoelectric point (pl) values from 4.47 to 5.81, but could not distinguish between them. MALDI-TOF MS in linear mode, using sinapinic acid as the matrix, revealed a large tryptic peptide (mass > 5990 Da) derived from the C-terminus that contained all the known sites of genetic variance, phosphorylation and glycosylation. Two genetic variants present as singly or doubly phosphorylated forms could be distinguished using mass data alone. Glycoforms containing a single acidic tetrasaccharide were also identified. The differences in electrophoretic mobility of these isoforms were consistent with the addition of the acidic groups. While more extensively glycosylated forms were also observed, substantial loss of N-acetylneuraminic acid from the glycosyl group was evident in the MALDI spectra such that ions corresponding to the intact glycopeptide were not observed and assignment of the glycoforms was not possible. However, by analysing the pl shifts observed on the two-dimensional gels in conjunction with the MS data, the number of N-acetylneuraminic acid residues, and hence the glycoforms present, could be determined.

Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data using NONMEM and WinBUGS

The aim of this report is to describe the use of WinBUGS for two datasets that arise from typical population pharmacokinetic studies. The first dataset relates to gentamicin concentration-time data that arose as part of routine clinical care of 55 neonates. The second dataset incorporated data from 96 patients receiving enoxaparin. Both datasets were originally analyzed by using NONMEM. In the first instance, although NONMEM provided reasonable estimates of the fixed effects parameters it was unable to provide satisfactory estimates of the between-subject variance. In the second instance, the use of NONMEM resulted in the development of a successful model, albeit with limited available information on the between-subject variability of the pharmacokinetic parameters. WinBUGS was used to develop a model for both of these datasets. Model comparison for the enoxaparin dataset was performed by using the posterior distribution of the log-likelihood and a posterior predictive check. The use of WinBUGS supported the same structural models tried in NONMEM. For the gentamicin dataset a one-compartment model with intravenous infusion was developed, and the population parameters including the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix were available. Analysis of the enoxaparin dataset supported a two compartment model as superior to the one-compartment model, based on the posterior predictive check. Again, the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix parameters were available. Fully Bayesian approaches using MCMC methods, via WinBUGS, can offer added value for analysis of population pharmacokinetic data.

Multivariate genetic analysis of academic skills of the Queensland Core Skills Test and IQ highlight the importance of genetic g

This study examined the genetic and environmental relationships among 5 academic achievement skills of a standardized test of academic achievement, the Queensland Core Skills Test (QCST; Queensland Studies Authority, 2003a). QCST participants included 182 monozygotic pairs and 208 dizygotic pairs (mean 17 years +/- 0.4 standard deviation). IQ data were included in the analysis to correct for ascertainment bias. A genetic general factor explained virtually all genetic variance in the component academic skills scores, and accounted for 32% to 73% of their phenotypic variances. It also explained 56% and 42% of variation in Verbal IQ and Performance IQ respectively, suggesting that this factor is genetic g. Modest specific genetic effects were evident for achievement in mathematical problem solving and written expression. A single common factor adequately explained common environmental effects, which were also modest, and possibly due to assortative mating. The results suggest that general academic ability, derived from genetic influences and to a lesser extent common environmental influences, is the primary source of variation in component skills of the QCST.

An analysis of relational complexity in an air traffic control conflict detection task

Theoretical analyses of air traffic complexity were carried out using the Method for the Analysis of Relational Complexity. Twenty-two air traffic controllers examined static air traffic displays and were required to detect and resolve conflicts. Objective measures of performance included conflict detection time and accuracy. Subjective perceptions of mental workload were assessed by a complexity-sorting task and subjective ratings of the difficulty of different aspects of the task. A metric quantifying the complexity of pair-wise relations among aircraft was able to account for a substantial portion of the variance in the perceived complexity and difficulty of conflict detection problems, as well as reaction time. Other variables that influenced performance included the mean minimum separation between aircraft pairs and the amount of time that aircraft spent in conflict.