Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS

We use historical industrial emissions data to assess the level of abatement and over-allocation that took place across European countries during the pilot phase (2005–2007) of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme. Using a dynamic panel data model, we estimate the counter factual (business-as-usual) emissions scenario for EU member states. Comparing this baseline to allocated and verified emissions, we find that both over-allocation and abatement occurred, along with under-allocation and emissions inflation. Over the three trading years of the pilot phase we find over-allocation of approximately 280 million EUAs and total abatement of 247 Mt CO2. However, we calculate that emissions inflation of approximately 73 Mt CO2 also occurred, possibly due to uncertainty about future policy design features.

Risks and the financing of PPP: Perspectives from the financiers

Public private partnerships (PPP) are an established model for most governments internationally to provide infrastructure-based services, using private finance. Typically the public authority will sign a contract with a special purpose vehicle (SPV), which, because of the holistic nature of PPP, in turn sub-contracts the finance, design, construction, maintenance and soft services to companies that are often related to its shareholders. Thus there is a considerable network of linked organisations that together procure and provide the PPP project. While there is an increasing body of research that examines these PPP projects, much of it is interview or case study based so that the evidence is drawn from a small number of interviews or cases in specific sectors. It also focuses on the public sector procurer and the private sector contractor in the network of organisations. Although it has been recognised that the perceptions of the financiers may vary from those of other key PPP players there is much less research that focuses on the financiers. In this paper we report the results of a postal questionnaire survey, administered to 109 providers of senior debt and equity, from which the response rate was just less than 40%. We supplement these findings with a small number of illustrative quotes from interviewees, where the cited quote represents a commonly held view. We used SPSS and Nvivo to analyse the data. The findings show that when assessing PPPs financiers perceive a very wide range of risks as important, and that it is important to them that many of these risks are either insured or allocated to sub-contractors. When considering participating in PPPs, financiers agree that working with familiar partners on familiar projects and in familiar sectors is important, which may raise barriers to entry and undermine competitive processes.

The simple economics of risk-sharing agreements between the NHS and the pharmaceutical industry

The Janssen-Cilag proposal for a risk-sharing agreement regarding bortezomib received a welcome signal from NICE. The Office of Fair Trading report included risk-sharing agreements as an available tool for the National Health Service. Nonetheless, recent discussions have somewhat neglected the economic fundamentals underlying risk-sharing agreements. We argue here that risk-sharing agreements, although attractive due to the principle of paying by results, also entail risks. Too many patients may be put under treatment even with a low success probability. Prices are likely to be adjusted upward, in anticipation of future risk-sharing agreements between the pharmaceutical company and the third-party payer. An available instrument is a verification cost per patient treated, which allows obtaining the first-best allocation of patients to the new treatment, under the risk sharing agreement. Overall, the welfare effects of risk-sharing agreements are ambiguous, and care must be taken with their use.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Perceptions of the risks and benefits of medicines in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and other painful musculoskeletal conditions

Objectives. To examine beliefs about medication risks and benefits in patients attending a specialist rheumatology clinic for pain-related conditions. Methods. Eighty-one patients (37 first attendees and 44 existing clinic patients) completed a written questionnaire which asked about current treatments, perceived effectiveness, main risks and benefits, and compliance. Results. Existing clinic patients perceived medications to be more effective and more risky than did the new patients, although both groups rated risks to be moderately low. The main perceived risks were adverse side-effects, although patients reported only moderately low levels of experiencing such effects. Conclusions. In contrast to some other studies, many of our patients were aware of medication risks and were prepared to accept them provided benefits were seen to be high. Existing clinic patients were more aware of risks and benefits, and reported higher compliance levels than new patients, possibly as a result of the hospital education programme. Future studies should evaluate the effects of the programme more systematically.

The risks and rewards of international construction from an Australian perspective

Very little research has been carried out regarding the risks and rewards of the international construction industry/market from an Australian perspective. A survey was sent to Australian based construction companies known to be operating internationally, to obtain their insights and perspectives on the risks and rewards of the international construction industry/market and international construction projects. Australian based companies have expanded their operations in order to benefit from inducements such as growth, profit and diversification. Continuing globalization and the openness of new markets has also provided significant opportunities to expand for Australian companies. Those Australian construction companies that have been operating abroad have been doing so for 20+ years in the Asia-Pacific and Australasian regions. This is significant as it shows that easily accessible markets are a stepping stone for further overseas expansion. The most commonly rated rewards for operating overseas were growth and profit; which matched the initial reason most companies chose to expand overseas. It was established that the ability to increase long term profitability through diversification was the biggest inducement for Australian construction companies expanding their operations overseas. When asked to rate the risks associated with international construction not one risk was rated significantly higher than the rest which supports the conclusion that the types of risks and rewards associated with each market rarely vary; only the severity and likelihood of occurrence. From an overall Australian perspective this research has established that the reasons and rewards for expanding overseas were the identical. Further that the risks associated with international construction were established as being different and varied depending on the market.

Allocating risks in public-private partnership projects using a transaction cost economics approach - a case study

Public-private partnership (PPP) projects are often characterised by increased complexity and uncertainty due to their idiosyncrasy in the management and delivery processes such as long-term lifecycle, incomplete contracting, and the multitude of stakeholders. An appropriate risk allocation is particularly crucial to achieving project success. This paper focuses on the risk allocation in PPP projects and argues that the transaction cost economics (TCE) theory can integrate the economics part, which is currently missing, into the risk management research. A TCE-based approach is proposed as a logical framework for allocating risks between public and private sectors in PPP projects. A case study of the Southern Cross Station redevelopment project in Australia is presented to illustrate the approach. The allocation of important risks is put under scrutiny. Lessons learnt are discussed and alternative management approaches drawing on TCE theory are proposed.

A review of cashmere nutrition experiments with suggestions for improving their design and conduct

The scientific literature contains divergent views about the effects of nutrition on cashmere. The consequences of ignoring nutrition will be an increase in the number of goats suffering lower production, increased welfare risks and premature mortality. This review evaluated published reports to identify current knowledge and best practice in regard to the design and management of cashmere nutrition experiments. The ability of experiments to distinguish between treatments was evaluated based on their statistical evidence. Many experiments had serious deficiencies in their design, conduct and reporting. Six of 16 papers did not provide statistical information that would enable a reader to verify differences between treatments. For most experiments to detect nutrition affects at P < 0.05, they required a difference between treatments of 0.2–0.8 μm in cashmere mean fibre diameter and 15–42 g in clean cashmere production. Government Research Institutes research was characterised by more experienced authors conducting longer (P < 0.05) and larger (P < 0.05) experiments than those conducted by Universities. Much of the “debate” regarding the affects of nutrition on cashmere production arises from the misinterpretation of both experiments that did not detect statistically significant effects and of experiments that did detect statistically significant effects. Based on a comparison between experiments reporting responses to nutrition with those reporting no response, 13 design and management features were identified that are related to the ability of experiments to detect significant treatment affects. Methods must be adopted to reduce the variance in cashmere production within treatments, by using sufficient animals per treatment, and having replication to provide sufficient degrees of freedom to reduce error terms in analysis. The power of experimental designs should be evaluated before experiments commence. Cashmere production records from a previous full production year could be used as co-variants during statistical analyses but this requires that potential experimental goats are managed in one flock, without variations resulting from different grazing, reproduction or other management for a year prior to an experiment. It is preferable to use more productive and older goats, and goats that are used to handling, and to the conditions and feed to be used. Allocation of animals to treatments must take into account live weight. Nutrition treatments need to be sufficiently different to produce different growth curves. An appropriate control is needed such as live weight maintenance. Evidence of both nutrition intake and growth curves must be published with cashmere production data so the claims made can be verified by the actual responses. As cashmere production is an order of magnitude less than fibre production of Merino sheep or Angora goats and is more difficult to measure, the requirements for measurement, sampling and testing cashmere fleeces are summarised. The use of mid side cashmere patches to determine cashmere growth and quality is seriously biased and must be avoided, preferably by shearing goats prior to and at the end of experiments. In order to obtain higher fleece growth responses and improve the ability of experiments to detect treatment effects it is preferable to start cashmere growth experiments by midsummer and conduct experiments for at least 4 months. These requirements make it difficult for many university students to plan, undertake and complete long-term cashmere nutrition experiments without considerable management support. It is not possible for experiments to disprove the Null hypothesis regarding the effects of nutrition on cashmere production as they can only report a failure to detect treatment effects. Researchers and journals need to be more rigorous in providing statistical information including: degrees of freedom for error terms, treatment variances, standard error of differences or similar to enable readers to compare treatment effects. Publications that do not provide sufficient statistical information should be disregarded from future discussions. Claims that an experiment shows no responses to nutrition should be subject to rigorous examination using the issues identified in this review.

Descriptive and prescriptive analyses of aid allocation : approaches, issues and consequences

Studies of the interrecipient allocation of aid may be categorized threefold. First, there are those that attempt to explain the observed allocation of aid. Second, there are those that seek to describe or evaluate the allocation of aid against normative criteria. Third, there are those that seek to prescribe the interrecipient allocation of aid by calculating the amounts of aid each country should receive, also based on normative criteria. This article looks at the second and third categories of studies. It commences by looking at the different approaches and a descriptive measure used, and then repeats this exercise for the prescriptive literature. It then looks at differences between the prescribed allocations of the different approaches used in the literature. These allocations are then compared with actual allocations and evaluated against various normative criteria. This reveals significant differences, both between prescribed and actual allocations and the evaluations of the different prescriptive approaches.

Outsourcing the risks : alcohol licensing, risk and the making of the night time economy

Mariana Valverde argues that in the late twentieth century, the British state contracted out the prevention of disorder and monitoring of risks produced by widespread alcohol use to the private sector through the process of liquor licensing. This paper will argue that this scenario was duplicated in Victoria at the same time. It will do so by an analysis of four government-instigated inquiries into liquor licensing regimes from 1965 to 1998. The inquiries were distinguished by the subtly different emphases in their terms of reference. In 1965, the Phillips Royal Commission was directed to inquire into the best ways of dealing with the problems alcohol produced and how best to regulate it for the benefit of the population as a whole. By the time the Nieuwenhuysen Report was commissioned in 1985, the emphasis had changed, and he was directed to inquire how best to serve the interests of alcohol consumers and to produce the licensing regulatory regime which would enable the construction of a 24-hour city. Any anomalies that still existed in the revised Act were eliminated in the 1998 review which was instigated as a direct response to the National Competition Policy. A consequence of these changes over 30 years was the development of particular risk groups, such as ‘binge-drinking young people’, whose violence and nuisance must be controlled to enable all other ‘reasonable’ and ‘moderate’ drinkers be allowed to keep drinking. Thus the notion of risk had been redefined and the responsibility for dealing with these risks had been directed from the state to individual licensees and individual drinkers.

Critical uncertainty factors for efficient risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, commonly referred to as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. Choosing a risk allocation strategy could be viewed as the process of deciding the proportion of risk management attributable to the public and private partners based on a series of characteristics of the risk management service transaction in question. These characteristics can be related to the various uncertainty factors. In this study, uncertainty factors have been grouped into Institutional, Social and industrial, Economic, and Project-specific categories and examined in order to achieve efficient risk allocation and minimize risk management-related costs in a long-term view. Critical uncertainty factors for the allocation of three major risks have been identified through an industry-wide survey in Australia. These identified critical uncertainty factors are expected to help decision-makers from both public and private sectors choose efficient allocation strategies for major risks. Future research directions are also set out.

Microeconomic models of intra-household activity time allocation

The primary purpose of this research is to analyze theoretically the group decisionmaking process leading to the allocation of activity time and the consumption of goods, with particular emphasis in the households. Each household is characterized as a group of individuals making joint decisions about their activity participations, alternative activity time allocations and consumption of various goods, such as independent and joint activity time allocations as well as private and shared consumption patterns. We firstly explore why individual-based models are not realistic in multi-person households, and secondly, we summarize various intra-household activity time allocation models based on different decision-making processes. All models are presented under microeconomic principle of utility maximization to represent the economic behavior of the households.

The power of the purse : what do the data say on US federal budget allocation to the states?

This paper provides new evidence on the determinants of the allocation of the US federal budget to the states and tests the capability of congressional, electoral and partisan theories to explain such allocation. We find that socio-economic characteristics are important explanatory variables but are not sufficient to explain the disparities in the distribution of federal monies. First, prestige committee membership is not conducive to pork-barrelling. We do not find any evidence that marginal states receive more funding; on the opposite, safe states tend to be rewarded. Also, states that are historically "swing" in presidential elections tend to receive more funds. Finally, we find strong evidence supporting partisan theories of budget allocation. States whose governor has the same political affiliation of the President receive more federal funds; while states whose representatives belong to a majority opposing the president party receive less funds.

Essays on the political economy of European integration

Recently, a rising interest in political and economic integration/disintegration issues has been developed in the political economy field. This growing strand of literature partly draws on traditional issues of fiscal federalism and optimum public good provision and focuses on a trade-off between the benefits of centralization, arising from economies of scale or externalities, and the costs of harmonizing policies as a consequence of the increased heterogeneity of individual preferences in an international union or in a country composed of at least two regions. This thesis stems from this strand of literature and aims to shed some light on two highly relevant aspects of the political economy of European integration. The first concerns the role of public opinion in the integration process; more precisely, how economic benefits and costs of integration shape citizens' support for European Union (EU) membership. The second is the allocation of policy competences among different levels of government: European, national and regional. Chapter 1 introduces the topics developed in this thesis by reviewing the main recent theoretical developments in the political economy analysis of integration processes. It is structured as follows. First, it briefly surveys a few relevant articles on economic theories of integration and disintegration processes (Alesina and Spolaore 1997, Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina et al. 2000, Casella and Feinstein 2002) and discusses their relevance for the study of the impact of economic benefits and costs on public opinion attitude towards the EU. Subsequently, it explores the links existing between such political economy literature and theories of fiscal federalism, especially with regard to normative considerations concerning the optimal allocation of competences in a union. Chapter 2 firstly proposes a model of citizens’ support for membership of international unions, with explicit reference to the EU; subsequently it tests the model on a panel of EU countries. What are the factors that influence public opinion support for the European Union (EU)? In international relations theory, the idea that citizens' support for the EU depends on material benefits deriving from integration, i.e. whether European integration makes individuals economically better off (utilitarian support), has been common since the 1970s, but has never been the subject of a formal treatment (Hix 2005). A small number of studies in the 1990s have investigated econometrically the link between national economic performance and mass support for European integration (Eichenberg and Dalton 1993; Anderson and Kalthenthaler 1996), but only making informal assumptions. The main aim of Chapter 2 is thus to propose and test our model with a view to providing a more complete and theoretically grounded picture of public support for the EU. Following theories of utilitarian support, we assume that citizens are in favour of membership if they receive economic benefits from it. To develop this idea, we propose a simple political economic model drawing on the recent economic literature on integration and disintegration processes. The basic element is the existence of a trade-off between the benefits of centralisation and the costs of harmonising policies in presence of heterogeneous preferences among countries. The approach we follow is that of the recent literature on the political economy of international unions and the unification or break-up of nations (Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina and Wacziarg 1999, Alesina et al. 2001, 2005a, to mention only the relevant). The general perspective is that unification provides returns to scale in the provision of public goods, but reduces each member state’s ability to determine its most favoured bundle of public goods. In the simple model presented in Chapter 2, support for membership of the union is increasing in the union’s average income and in the loss of efficiency stemming from being outside the union, and decreasing in a country’s average income, while increasing heterogeneity of preferences among countries points to a reduced scope of the union. Afterwards we empirically test the model with data on the EU; more precisely, we perform an econometric analysis employing a panel of member countries over time. The second part of Chapter 2 thus tries to answer the following question: does public opinion support for the EU really depend on economic factors? The findings are broadly consistent with our theoretical expectations: the conditions of the national economy, differences in income among member states and heterogeneity of preferences shape citizens’ attitude towards their country’s membership of the EU. Consequently, this analysis offers some interesting policy implications for the present debate about ratification of the European Constitution and, more generally, about how the EU could act in order to gain more support from the European public. Citizens in many member states are called to express their opinion in national referenda, which may well end up in rejection of the Constitution, as recently happened in France and the Netherlands, triggering a European-wide political crisis. These events show that nowadays understanding public attitude towards the EU is not only of academic interest, but has a strong relevance for policy-making too. Chapter 3 empirically investigates the link between European integration and regional autonomy in Italy. Over the last few decades, the double tendency towards supranationalism and regional autonomy, which has characterised some European States, has taken a very interesting form in this country, because Italy, besides being one of the founding members of the EU, also implemented a process of decentralisation during the 1970s, further strengthened by a constitutional reform in 2001. Moreover, the issue of the allocation of competences among the EU, the Member States and the regions is now especially topical. The process leading to the drafting of European Constitution (even if then it has not come into force) has attracted much attention from a constitutional political economy perspective both on a normative and positive point of view (Breuss and Eller 2004, Mueller 2005). The Italian parliament has recently passed a new thorough constitutional reform, still to be approved by citizens in a referendum, which includes, among other things, the so called “devolution”, i.e. granting the regions exclusive competence in public health care, education and local police. Following and extending the methodology proposed in a recent influential article by Alesina et al. (2005b), which only concentrated on the EU activity (treaties, legislation, and European Court of Justice’s rulings), we develop a set of quantitative indicators measuring the intensity of the legislative activity of the Italian State, the EU and the Italian regions from 1973 to 2005 in a large number of policy categories. By doing so, we seek to answer the following broad questions. Are European and regional legislations substitutes for state laws? To what extent are the competences attributed by the European treaties or the Italian Constitution actually exerted in the various policy areas? Is their exertion consistent with the normative recommendations from the economic literature about their optimum allocation among different levels of government? The main results show that, first, there seems to be a certain substitutability between EU and national legislations (even if not a very strong one), but not between regional and national ones. Second, the EU concentrates its legislative activity mainly in international trade and agriculture, whilst social policy is where the regions and the State (which is also the main actor in foreign policy) are more active. Third, at least two levels of government (in some cases all of them) are significantly involved in the legislative activity in many sectors, even where the rationale for that is, at best, very questionable, indicating that they actually share a larger number of policy tasks than that suggested by the economic theory. It appears therefore that an excessive number of competences are actually shared among different levels of government. From an economic perspective, it may well be recommended that some competences be shared, but only when the balance between scale or spillover effects and heterogeneity of preferences suggests so. When, on the contrary, too many levels of government are involved in a certain policy area, the distinction between their different responsibilities easily becomes unnecessarily blurred. This may not only leads to a slower and inefficient policy-making process, but also risks to make it too complicate to understand for citizens, who, on the contrary, should be able to know who is really responsible for a certain policy when they vote in national,local or European elections or in referenda on national or European constitutional issues.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.