Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this paper, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, with the existing data we first create a parametric scoring system using multiple covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Using this system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and create a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated group-specific treatment difference curve across a range of threshold values is constructed. The population of patients with any desired level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid any ``self-serving'' bias, we utilize a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. Lastly, we show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. The proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating AIDS and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Time for a break: admissions to an urban emergency department after working out-a retrospective study from Switzerland.

Background. The present retrospective study was intended to investigate whether working out and other low-speed sports can provoke cardiovascular, neurological, or traumatic damage. Material and Methods. Patient data from 2007 to 2013 was collected and saved at the university department of emergency medicine in an electronic patient record database. Results. Of the 138 patients included in this study, 83.3% (n = 115) were male and 16.7% female (n = 23). Most admissions were due to musculoskeletal accidents (n = 77; 55.8%), followed by neurological incidents (n = 23; 16.7%), cardiovascular incidents (n = 19; 13.8%), soft tissue injuries (n = 3; 2.2%), and others (n = 16; 11.6%). The mean age of the allover injured people was 36.7 years. The majority of the patients (n = 113; 81.9%) were treated as outpatients; 24 (17.4%) were inpatients. Discussion. In Switzerland, this is the first study that describes emergency department admissions after workout and examines trauma and neurological and cardiovascular incidents. As specific injuries, such as brain haemorrhages, STEMIs, and epileptic seizures, were relatively frequent, it was hypothesised that workout with its physiological changes may be an actual trigger for these injuries, at least for a specific population. Conclusion. Strenuous physical activity may trigger the risk of cardiovascular, neurological, or trauma events.

The effect of thyroxine and triiodothyronine on fatigue, depression, and memory in a hypothyroid population

Background. This study was planned at a time when important questions were being raised about the adequacy of using one hormone to treat hypothyroidism instead of two. Specifically, this trial aimed to replicate prior findings which suggested that substituting 12.5 μg of liothyronine for 50 μg of levothyroxine might improve mood, cognition, and physical symptoms. Additionally, this trial aimed to extend findings to fatigue. ^ Methods. A randomized, double-blind, two-period, crossover design was used. Hypothyroid patients stabilized on levothyroxine were invited to participate. Thirty subjects were recruited and randomized. Sequence one received their standard levothyroxine dose in one capsule and placebo in another during the first six weeks. Sequence two received their usual levothyroxine dose minus 50 μg in one capsule and 10 μg of liothyronine in another. At the end of the first six week period, subjects were crossed over. T tests were used to assess carry-over and treatment effects. ^ Results. Twenty-seven subjects completed the trial. The majority of completers had an autoimmune etiology. Mean baseline levothyroxine dose was 121 μg/d (±26.0). Subjects reported small increases in fatigue as measured by the Piper Fatigue Scale (0.9, p = 0.09) and in symptoms of depression measured by the Beck Depression Inventory-II (2.3, p = 0.16) as well as the General Health Questionnaire-30 (4.7, p = 0.14) while treated with substitution treatment. However, none of these differences was statistically significant. Measures of working memory were essentially unchanged between treatments. Thyroid stimulating hormone was about twice as high during substitution treatment (p = 0.16). Free thyroxine index was reduced by 0.7 (p < 0.001), and total serum thyroxine was reduced by 3.0 (p < 0.001) while serum triiodothyronine was increased by 20.5 (p < 0.001) on substitution treatment. ^ Conclusions. Substituting an equivalent amount of liothyronine for a portion of levothyroxine in patients with hypothyroidism does not decrease fatigue, symptoms of depression, or improve working memory. However, due to changes in serum hormone levels and small increments in fatigue and depression symptoms on substitution treatment, a question was raised about the role of T3 in the serum. ^

Self-injury in a residential treatment population of children and adolescents

Objectives. The aim of this study was to describe the relationship between child-abuse and self-injury among children and adolescents living in a residential treatment center in a large urban area. ^ Methods. A retrospective study was conducted through a chart review of the residents who were placed at the center from 2003-2006. A total of 35 cases (with at least one documented incident of self-injury during placement at the residential treatment center) were age/gender matched with 35 controls (without at least one documented incident of self-injury during placement at the residential treatment center). ^ Results. In this study, the case subjects were far more likely to be victims of sexual abuse than were the controls (74.3% vs. 25.7%, respectively). Self-harm was found to be 9.5 times as frequent in the group that was exposed to sexual abuse in the source population (OR = 9.500 with a 95% CI = 2.292, 84.111). The difference was statistically significant (McNemar's test, x2 = 12.190 with 1 df. The two-tailed P value equals 0.0005). ^ Conclusion. These findings suggest that school-age and early-adolescent children who have a history of sexual abuse may engage in a variety of self-harming behaviors. Clinicians should consider a history of sexual abuse when working with self-harming children. ^

The identification and prevalence of veterinary clinical events in U.S. military working dogs deployed to Iraq between March 20, 2003, and December 31, 2007

Objective. The purpose of this study was to identify the medical issues experienced by Military Working Dogs during their period of deployment in Iraq.^ Design. This study was a retrospective cross-sectional survey based on database and medical record abstraction.^ Population. Military Working Dogs (MWDs) that were deployed to Iraq at any time between 20 March 2003 and 31 December 2007 were the inclusive population of interest. Seven hundred ninety-five (795) MWDs were identified as having been deployed to Iraq during the inclusive dates. Four hundred ninety-six (496) MWDs were identified that had medical events during the deployment period. ^ Procedures. Eligible MWDs were identified through several sources, to include database query, medical record abstraction questionnaire, and medical record abstraction. Demographic information collected for each MWD included tattoo, name, age, gender, breed, Branch of Service, and duty certification. Information on each veterinary/medical clinical event (VCE) was collected. This information was coded, and data entered into a database for organization. Frequency and prevalence information were determined for each category of VCE.^ Results. The top four VCEs experienced by MWDs while deployed in Iraq were gastrohepatic, dermatologic, traumatic injury, and appendicular musculoskeletal issues.^ Conclusions. Training, equipment, and supplies for veterinary personnel who care for the deployed MWDs should be tailored accordingly to suit the identified medical needs of the MWDs. ^

Community diagnosis: A working tool for developing culturally appropriate diarrhea intervention programs

Most studies related to diarrhea have been focused narrowly on the etiological and pathophysiological factors involved in inducing the disease. Such studies have often failed to consider other facets contributing to and possibly prolonging the problem, namely: socio-economic conditions, educational opportunities and attainments, cultural characteristics and beliefs, and the political administration and its commitment towards fulfilling its moral and ethical obligations in responding to and fostering human development.^ This study utilized the diagnostic approach of the PRECEDE model. The acronym stands for the predisposing reinforcing, and enabling constructs in educational diagnosis and evaluation. The constituents of this model were identified by utilizing participant observation field methods, traditionally applied by ethnographers to collect data describing the multiple facets of a culture, and linguistic anthropology used to capture and define characteristic semantics and viewpoints. The household study sample was randomly selected from a defined list of households known to have at least one child less than five years of age. An open-ended questionnaire format was used to interview the 115 mothers in the selected households sample.^ Kalama, the study community, is characteristically an agricultural village, situated in the Governorate of Kaliobia and located approximately 25 Km (about 15.5 miles) from the capital, Cairo, Egypt. The 1986 census indicates a population size of 13,328 people in 4,818 households. There were 65 deaths occurring among children less than five years in 1986. The causes of death were primarily related to diarrhea, followed by upper respiratory infections, congenital anomalies and birth injuries.^ This study outlines (a) practices related to the management of diarrhea, including the administration of foods and drinks during such episodes; (b) influences of governmental policies; and (c) recommended strategies for overcoming barriers and promoting effective diarrhea intervention programs. ^

Estimates of life expectancy gains from reducing/eliminating major causes of death in the USA: An update analysis for population in 2001--2008

Evaluation of the impact of a disease on life expectancy is an important part of public health. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) that can properly take into account the competing risks are an effective indicator for measuring the impact of the multiple causes of death. This study aimed to measure the PGLEs from reducing/eliminating the major causes of death in the USA from 2001 to 2008. To calculate the PGLEs due to the elimination of specific causes of death, the age-specific mortality rates for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, Alzheimer disease, kidney diseases and HIV/AIDS and life table constructing data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics, and the multiple decremental life tables were constructed. The PGLEs by elimination of heart disease, malignant neoplasms or HIV/AIDS continued decreasing from 2001 to 2008, but the PGLE by elimination of Alzheimer's disease or kidney diseases revealed increased trends. The PGLEs (by years) for all race, male, female, white, white male, white female, black, black male and black female at birth by complete elimination of heart disease 2001–2008 were 0.336–0.299, 0.327–0.301, 0.344–0.295, 0.360–0.315, 0.349–0.317, 0.371–0.316,0.278–0.251, 0.272–0.255, and 0.282–0.246 respectively. Similarly, the PGLEs (by years) for all race, male, female, white, white male, white female, black, black male and black female at birth by complete elimination of malignant neoplasms, Alzheimer's disease, kidney disease or HIV/AIDS 2001–2008 were also uncovered, respectively. Most diseases affect specific population, such as, HIV/AIDS tends to have a greater impact on people of working age, heart disease and malignant neoplasms have a greater impact on people over 65 years of age, but Alzheimer's disease and kidney diseases have a greater impact on people over 75 years of age. To measure the impact of these diseases on life expectancy in people of working age, partial multiple decremental life tables were constructed and the PGLEs were computed by partial or complete elimination of various causes of death during the working years. Thus, the results of the study outlined a picture of how each single disease could affect the life expectancy in age-, race-, or sex-specific population in USA. Therefore, the findings would not only assist to evaluate current public health improvements, but also provide useful information for future research and disease control programs.^

Shrinking population and the urban hierarchy

This paper examines whether population shrinkage leads to changes in urban hierarchy in terms of their relative size and function from the standpoint of the new economic geography. We find some salient patterns in which small cities in the agglomeration shadow become relatively bigger as medium industries spill over on them. This appears to be quite robust against a variation in the rate of natural change among cities. Thus, rank-size relationship and the urban hierarchy are partly disrupted as population shrinks. Regarding the welfare of the residents, a lower demand for land initially causes rent to go down, which boosts the utility. However, the illusion is short-lived because markets soon begin to shrink and suppress wages. We also find that it is better to maintain a slow pace of overall population decline in the long-term perspective. More importantly, it is crucial to sustain the relative livability of smaller cities to minimize the overall loss of utility.

Measuring population mobility speed from space

Ad-hoc population dynamics in Krugman’s type core and periphery models adjust population share of a region, based on its real wage rate deviation from national average, at pre-specified speed of population mobility. Whereas speed of population mobility is expected to be different across countries, for geographical, cultural, technological, etc. reasons, one common speed is often applied in theoretical and simulation analysis, due to spatially patchy, and temporally infrequent, availability of sub-national regional data. This article demonstrates how, increasingly available, high definition spatio-temporal remote-sensing data, and their by-products, can be used to measure speed of population mobility in national and sub-national level.

Partition, independence, and population geography in Bengal

This study quantitatively explores the changing population geography in Bengal, with a particular focus on Partition in India in 1947 and Independence of Bangladesh in 1971. Based on decadal census data from 1901 to 2001 at the district level, this paper explores how trends in regional population growth evolved with such historical events. Following Redding and Sturm (2008), Differences-in-Differences estimation is also employed. Estimation results show that there were different shocks on both sides and from both events. In West Bengal, the change in the regional population trends occurred in 1947 and remained similar thereafter. On the other hand, in East Bengal, the population growth became statistically significant after 1971. Further robustness checks show that the impacts were not uniform with respect to the distance from the border. Overall analyses show that the emergence of the international border in Bengal had asymmetric impacts on both sides.

Empowerment Evaluation in Spain: The Critical Friend Role in Working with Rural Communities

Rural communities in Cuenca (Spain) are characterized by a great social dislocation, mostly due to the low population density in these areas. In this way, the existence of groups of citizens able to be active agents of their development process is a critical aspect for any community-based development process in this Spanish region. The Institute of Community Development of Cuenca (IDC) has been working with this type of groups for the last 30 years focusing on the organizational empowerment of the rural communities. Main tools in this process have been the empowerment evaluation approach and the critical friend role when helping the groups to achieve their objectives and reinforcing them. This chapter analyses the empowerment process and how the critical friend role is nourished by the facilitator figure.

Occupational class and cause specific mortality in middle aged men in 11 European countries: comparison of population based studies

Objectives: To compare countries in western Europe with respect to class differences in mortality from specific causes of death and to assess the contributions these causes make to class differences in total mortality.