Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Influence of Individual Characteristics on Work Engagement and Job Stress in a Sample of National and Foreign Workers in Switzerland

In most Western postindustrial societies today, the population is aging, businesses are faced with global integration, and important migration flows are taking place. Increasingly work organizations are hiring crossnational and multicultural workteams. In this situation it is important to understand the influence of certain individual and cultural characteristics on the process of professional integration. The present study explores the links between personality traits, demographic characteristics (age, sex, education, income, and nationality), work engagement, and job stress. The sample consisted of 618 participants, including 394 Swiss workers (200 women, 194 men) and 224 foreigners living and working in Switzerland (117 women, 107 men). Each participant completed the NEO-FFI, the UWES, and the GWSS questionnaires. Our results show an interaction between age and nationality with respect to work engagement and general job stress. The levels of work engagement and job stress appear to increase with age among national wotkers, whereas they decrease among foreign workers. In addition, work engagement was negatively associated with Neuroticism and positively with the other four personality dimensions. Finally, job stress was positively associated with Neuroticism and Conscientiousness, and negatively associated with Extraversion. However, the strength of these relationships appeared to vary according to the worker's nationality, age, sex, education, and income.

Low relatedness among cooperatively breeding workers of the greenhead ant Rhytidoponera metallica

The greenhead ant Rhytidoponera metallica has long been recognized as posing a potential challenge to kin selection theory because it has large queenless colonies where apparently many of the morphological workers are mated and reproducing. However this species has never been studied genetically and important elements of its breeding system and kin structure remain uncertain. We used microsatellite markers to measure the relatedness among nestmates unravel the fine-scale population genetic structure and infer the breeding system of R. metallica. The genetic relatedness among worker nestmates is very low but significantly greater than zero (r = 0.082 +/- 0.015) which demonstrates that nests contain many distantly related breeders. The inbreeding coefficient is very close to and not significantly different from zero indicating random mating and lack of microgeographic genetic differentiation. On average. closely located nests are not more similar genetically than distant nests which is surprising as new colonies form by budding and female dispersal is restricted. Lack of inbreeding and absence of population viscosity indicates high gene flow mediated by males. Overall the genetic pattern detected in R. metallica suggests that a high number of moderately related workers mate with unrelated males from distant nests. This breeding system results in the lowest relatedness among nestmates reported for social insect species where breeders and helpers are not morphologically differentiated. [References: 69]

Division of labour influences the rate of ageing in weaver ant workers.

The evolutionary theory of ageing predicts that the timing of senescence has been primarily shaped by the extrinsic mortality rate, which causes selection intensity to decline over time. One difficulty in testing the evolutionary theory of ageing is that extrinsic mortality risk is often confounded with body size and fecundity, which may also directly affect lifespan. Social insects with a pronounced division of labour between worker castes provide a unique opportunity to study the direct effect of extrinsic mortality on the evolution of ageing rates independently of body size, reproductive effort and genetic configuration. In the weaver ant, Oecophylla smaragdina, the major (large) workers perform the risky tasks outside the nest, while the minor (small) workers stay within the highly protected arboreal nest. Hence, this pronounced division of labour is associated with high differences in extrinsic mortality risks. The evolutionary theory of ageing predicts that the minor workers should have a longer intrinsic lifespan than the major workers. In line with this prediction, we found that in a protected environment the minor workers lived significantly longer than the major workers did. Hence, the ageing rate appears to have been moulded by variation in the extrinsic mortality rate independently of size, reproductive effort and genetic configuration.

Health and social care workers: don't risk flu infection

This leaflet explains why health and social care workers should receive the new flu vaccine. It provides a range of information, including how to get vaccinated, how the vaccine works, how effective it is and possible side effects.

Don't risk flu infection - (Health and social care workers poster)

Poster: Protect youself, your family and your patients

Effective exposure to solar UV in building workers: influence of local and individual factors.

Excessive exposure to solar UV light is the main cause of skin cancers in humans. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. Although outdoor occupational activities contribute significantly to the individual dose received, data on effective exposure are scarce and limited to a few occupations. A study was undertaken in order to assess effective short-term exposure among building workers and characterize the influence of individual and local factors on exposure. The effective exposure of construction workers in a mountainous area in the southern part of Switzerland was investigated through short-term dosimetry (97 dosimeters). Three altitudes, of about 500, 1500 and 2500 m were considered. Individual measurements over 20 working periods were performed using Spore film dosimeters on five body locations. The postural activity of workers was concomitantly recorded and static UV measurements were also performed. Effective exposure among building workers was high and exceeded occupational recommendations, for all individuals for at least one body location. The mean daily UV dose in plain was 11.9 SED (0.0-31.3 SED), in middle mountain 21.4 SED (6.6-46.8 SED) and in high mountain 28.6 SED (0.0-91.1 SED). Measured doses between workers and anatomical locations exhibited a high variability, stressing the role of local exposure conditions and individual factors. Short-term effective exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. A predictive irradiation model was developed to investigate the role of individual factors. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure, and were also found to account more than altitude on the total variance of effective daily exposures. Targeted sensitization actions through professional information channels and specific prevention messages are recommended. Altitude outdoor workers should also benefit from preventive medical examination.

The effect of a smoking ban introduction to environmental tobacco smoke exposure in Swiss hospitality workers : Abstracts of the 23rd Annual Conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE), September 13-16, 2011, Barcelona, Spain

Background and Aims: To protect the population from environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) Switzerland introduced a nationwide rather heterogeneous smoking ban in May 2010. The exposure situation of non-smoking hospitality workers before and after implementation of the new law is being assessed in a prospective cohort study. Methods: Exposure to ETS was measured using a novel method developed by the Institute for Work and Health in Lausanne. It is a passive sampler called MoNIC (Monitor of NICotine). The nicotine of the ETS is fixed onto a filter and transformed into salt of not volatile nicotine. Subsequently the number of passively smoked cigarettes is calculated. Badges were placed at the workplace as well as distributed to the participants for personal measuring. Additionally a salivary sample was taken to determine nicotine concentration. Results: At baseline Spearman's correlation between workplace and personal badge was 0.47. The average cigarette equivalents per day at the workplace obtained by badge significantly dropped from 5.1 (95%- CI: 2.4 to 7.9) at baseline to 0.3 (0.2 to 0.4) at first follow-up (n=29) three months later (p<0.001). For personal badges the number of passively smoked cigarettes declined from 1.5 (2.7 to 0.4) per day to 0.5 (0.3 to 0.8) (n=16).Salivary nicotine concentration in a subset of 13 participants who had worked on the day prior to the examination was 2.63 ng/ml before and 1.53 ng/ml after the ban (p=0.04). Spearman's correlation of salivary nicotine was 0.56 with workplace badge and 0.79 with personal badge concentrations. Conclusions: Workplace measurements clearly reflect the smoking regulation in a venue. The MoNIC badge proves to be a sensitive measuring device to determine personal ETS exposure and it is a demonstrative measure for communication with lay audiences and study participants as the number of passively smoked cigarettes is an easily conceivable result.

Long-Term Control of Endemic Hospital-Wide Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA): The Impact of Targeted Active Surveillance for MRSA in Patients and Healthcare Workers

To evaluate the long-term impact of successive interventions on rates of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization or infection and MRSA bacteremia in an endemic hospital-wide situation. DESIGN:Quasi-experimental, interrupted time-series analysis. The impact of the interventions was analyzed by use of segmented regression. Representative MRSA isolates were typed by use of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. SETTING:A 950-bed teaching hospital in Seville, Spain. PATIENTS:All patients admitted to the hospital during the period from 1995 through 2008. METHODS:Three successive interventions were studied: (1) contact precautions, with no active surveillance for MRSA; (2) targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients and healthcare workers in specific wards, prioritized according to clinical epidemiology data; and (3) targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients admitted from other medical centers. RESULTS:Neither the preintervention rate of MRSA colonization or infection (0.56 cases per 1,000 patient-days [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.49-0.62 cases per 1,000 patient-days]) nor the slope for the rate of MRSA colonization or infection changed significantly after the first intervention. The rate decreased significantly to 0.28 cases per 1,000 patient-days (95% CI, 0.17-0.40 cases per 1,000 patient-days) after the second intervention and to 0.07 cases per 1,000 patient-days (95% CI, 0.06-0.08 cases per 1,000 patient-days) after the third intervention, and the rate remained at a similar level for 8 years. The MRSA bacteremia rate decreased by 80%, whereas the rate of bacteremia due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus did not change. Eighty-three percent of the MRSA isolates identified were clonally related. All MRSA isolates obtained from healthcare workers were clonally related to those recovered from patients who were in their care. CONCLUSION:Our data indicate that long-term control of endemic MRSA is feasible in tertiary care centers. The use of targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients and healthcare workers in specific wards (identified by means of analysis of clinical epidemiology data) and the use of decolonization were key to the success of the program.