A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.

DRB1*03:01 haplotypes: differential contribution to multiple sclerosis risk and specific association with the presence of intrathecal IgM bands.

BACKGROUND Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a multifactorial disease with a genetic basis. The strongest associations with the disease lie in the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) region. However, except for the DRB1*15:01 allele, the main risk factor associated to MS so far, no consistent effect has been described for any other variant. One example is HLA-DRB1*03:01, with a heterogeneous effect across populations and studies. We postulate that those discrepancies could be due to differences in the diverse haplotypes bearing that allele. Thus, we aimed at studying the association of DRB1*03:01 with MS susceptibility considering this allele globally and stratified by haplotypes. We also evaluated the association with the presence of oligoclonal IgM bands against myelin lipids (OCMB) in cerebrospinal fluid. METHODS Genotyping of HLA-B, -DRB1 and -DQA1 was performed in 1068 MS patients and 624 ethnically matched healthy controls. One hundred and thirty-nine MS patients were classified according to the presence (M+, 58 patients)/absence (M-, 81 patients) of OCMB. Comparisons between groups (MS patients vs. controls and M+ vs. M-) were performed with the chi-square test or the Fisher exact test. RESULTS Association of DRB1*03:01 with MS susceptibility was observed but with different haplotypic contribution, being the ancestral haplotype (AH) 18.2 the one causing the highest risk. Comparisons between M+, M- and controls showed that the AH 18.2 was affecting only M+ individuals, conferring a risk similar to that caused by DRB1*15:01. CONCLUSIONS The diverse DRB1*03:01-containing haplotypes contribute with different risk to MS susceptibility. The AH 18.2 causes the highest risk and affects only to individuals showing OCMB.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Ankle-Brachial Index: Nurses Strategy To Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Identification

Elevated risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events is associated with high prevalence of peripheral arterial disease, with assessment through the ankle-brachial index (ABI). This study aimed to demonstrate that the ABI and the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire are tools to be used by nurses in prevention and/or treatment of CVD (cardiovascular disease). A cross-sectional study was carried out with patients from a cardiovascular clinic. The Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire was applied and the ABI was measured with the formula (ABI= Blood Pressure Ankle/Blood Pressure Brachial). A total of 115 patients were included, most were females (57.4%), aged 60.6 ± 12.5 years. The most prevalent risk factors were hypertension (64.3%), physical inactivity (48.7%) and family history (58.3%). The study showed that abnormal ABI was frequently found and 42.6% of the patients with abnormal ABI showed intermittent claudication. The method to evaluate the ABI associated to the Edinburg Claudication Questionnaire, can be easily used by nurses in the clinical evaluation of asymptomatic and symptomatic CVD patients.

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring: a mean to stratify cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVE: Current hypertension guidelines stress the importance to assess total cardiovascular risk but do not describe precisely how to use ambulatory blood pressures in the cardiovascular risk stratification. METHOD: We calculated here global cardiovascular risk according to 2003 European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology guidelines in 127 patients in whom daytime ambulatory blood pressures were recorded and carotid/femoral ultrasonography performed. RESULTS: The presence of ambulatory blood pressures >or =135/85 mmHg shifted cardiovascular risk to higher categories, as did the presence of hypercholesterolemia and, even more so, the presence of atherosclerotic plaques. CONCLUSION: Further studies are, however, needed to define the position of ambulatory blood pressures in the assessment of cardiovascular risk.

Validation of a clinical algorithm to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism.

Summary Background: We previously derived a clinical prognostic algorithm to identify patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) who are at low-risk of short-term mortality who could be safely discharged early or treated entirely in an outpatient setting. Objectives: To externally validate the clinical prognostic algorithm in an independent patient sample. Methods: We validated the algorithm in 983 consecutive patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at an emergency department of a university hospital. Patients with none of the algorithm's 10 prognostic variables (age >/= 70 years, cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, cerebrovascular disease, pulse >/= 110/min., systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, oxygen saturation < 90%, and altered mental status) at baseline were defined as low-risk. We compared 30-day overall mortality among low-risk patients based on the algorithm between the validation and the original derivation sample. We also assessed the rate of PE-related and bleeding-related mortality among low-risk patients. Results: Overall, the algorithm classified 16.3% of patients with PE as low-risk. Mortality at 30 days was 1.9% among low-risk patients and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation sample. Among low-risk patients, only 0.6% died from definite or possible PE, and 0% died from bleeding. Conclusions: This study validates an easy-to-use, clinical prognostic algorithm for PE that accurately identifies patients with PE who are at low-risk of short-term mortality. Low-risk patients based on our algorithm are potential candidates for less costly outpatient treatment.

Willigness to pay for long-term care coverage: the role of private information and self-insurance

Both public and private insurance for long-term care is undeveloped in some European countries such as in Spain and empirical evidence is still limited. This paper aims at exmining the determinants of the demand for Long Term Care (LTC) coverage in Spain using contingent valuation techniques. Our findings indicate that only one-fifth of the population is willing to pay to assure coverage decisions are significantly affected by private information asymmetry and housing tenure in giving rise to self-insurance reduces the probability of insurance being hypothetically purchased.

Mesure de la pression artérielle: meilleur moyen d'évaluer le risque cardiovasculaire [Measurement of blood pressure: best way to assess cardiovascular risk?]

Measurement of the blood pressure by the physician remains an essential step in the evaluation of cardiovascular risk. Ambulatory measurement and self-measurement of blood pressure are ways of counteracting the "white coat" effect which is the rise in blood pressure many patients experience in the presence of doctors. Thus, it is possible to define the cardiovascular risk of hypertension and identify the patients with the greatest chance of benefiting from antihypertensive therapy. However, it must be realised that normotensive subjects during their everyday activities and becoming hypertensive in the doctor's surgery, may become hypertensive with time, irrespective of the means used to measure blood pressure. These patients should be followed up regularly even if the decision to treat has been postponed.