The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Union inclusiveness and temporary agency workers: the role of power resources and union ideology

This article investigates the determinants of union inclusiveness towards agency workers in Western Europe, using an index which combines unionization rates with dimensions of collective agreements covering agency workers. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, we identify two combinations of conditions leading to inclusiveness: the ‘Northern path’ includes high union density, high bargaining coverage and high union authority, and is consistent with the power resources approach. The ‘Southern path’ combines high union authority, high bargaining coverage, statutory regulations of agency work and working-class orientation, showing that ideology rather than institutional incentives shapes union strategies towards the marginal workforce.

Achieving customer satisfaction through integrated products and services: an exploratory study

Complex products such as manufacturing equipment have always needed maintenance and repair services. Increasingly, leading manufacturers are integrating products and services to generate increased revenues and achieve customer satisfaction. Designing integrated products and services requires a different approach to new product development and a clear understanding of how customers perceive the value they obtain from actual usage of products and services—so-called value-in-use. However, there is a lack of research on integrated products and services and how they impact customer satisfaction. An exploratory study was undertaken to understand customers’ views on integrated products and services and the value-in-use derived from such offerings. As value-in-use and its impacts are complicated concepts, a technique from psychology—Repertory Grid Technique—was used to gather data in 33 interviews. The interviews allowed a deep understanding of customer views on integrated products and services to be obtained, and a systematic analysis identified the key attributes of value-in-use. In order to probe further, the data were then analyzed using Honey’s procedure, which identified the impact of the attributes of value-in-use on customer satisfaction. Two key attributes—relational dynamic and access—were found to have the most influence on customer satisfaction. This paper contributes to the innovation field by identifying customer needs for integrated products and services and how these impact customer satisfaction. These are key points and need to be fully considered by managers during new product and service development. Similarly, the paper identifies a number of important areas for further research.

Delivery care in Quang Ninh province, Northern Vietnam : resources and access to safe care.

Every mother and child has the right to survive childbirth which requires skilled birth attendants together with referral and available emergency obstetric care (EmOC). The objective of the study was to describe delivery care routines at different levels in the health care system in Quang Ninh province, Northern Vietnam. The design was cross sectional using a structured questionnaire. Two districts in Quang Ninh province with 40 Community Health Centres (CHC), three district hospitals and one region hospital was included in the study, in total 138 (CHC n=105 and hospitals n=33) health care providers participated. In our study 20% (CHC) of the health care providers assisting deliveries at CHC were midwives and health care provider’s in our study further report to have assisted at less then 10 deliveries/year (81% of respondents at CHC). Findings show that the health care provider’s routines and care for women during labour and delivery vary and that there is a need for re-training and that women in labour should be cared for by health care providers with adequate training like midwifery. In our study CHC had poor resources to provide basic or comprehensive EmOC. Our findings indicate that there is a need for re-training in delivery care among health care providers and since the number of deliveries at CHC is few they should be handled by someone who is a skilled birth attendant. Our findings also show a variation in care routines during labour and delivery among health care providers at CHC and hospital levels and this also show the need for re-training and support from proper authorities in order to improve maternal and newborn health.

February 2002: Futures, Part III, Cooperative Ventures and Services

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Theorizing Latin America : transactions, resources and institutions

Nos anos 80, a América Latina, uma das regiões menos desenvolvidas do mundo, enfrentou um período de mudanças econômicas e políticas significativas que levaram essa região a um lugar de destaque no mercado mundial. Por conseguinte, a América Latina foi objeto de diversos estudos, que, por sua vez, foram compilados nesta revisão de literatura, a fim de que se possam identificar quais os avanços foram feitos no âmbito da Gestão e Negócios Internacionais. Como base, tomou-se a metodologia aplicada por Meyer e Peng (2005), fazendo um paralelo entre três importantes teorias da área (Teoria de Baseada em Recursos, Teoria Baseada no Custo das Transações e Teoria Institucional) e alguns assuntos-chave de extrema relevância ao entendimento do tema (Construindo Vantagens Competitivas, Liberalização Econômica versus Regulação Governamental e Internacionalização) Ao final, delimitamos as contribuições da América Latina ao estudo da Gestão e Negócios Internacionais, fazendo algumas sugestões para futuros pesquisas nesse âmbito.

The importance of firms' strategic resources and capabilities in crisis situations

The general idea of this research is to analyze overall firm performance before and after the global financial crisis of 2008. The main question is: What kind of strategies did companies adopt that led to positive business performance after the crisis? Are there any particular competitive advantages that bring better performance in the case of an economic downturn? This research focuses on competitive advantage gained by resource-based view attributes of a product (quality, durability and prestige) and dynamic capabilities (strategic flexibility in product development and technological innovation ability). The economic crisis setting provides a proper background to analyze the competitive advantage strategies in a dynamic, low-probability environment to determine which are most worth adopting in the business world. I employ an OLS regression analysis in order to measure the business performance of 136 Brazilian firms across four years – 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2012. The findings indicate that even though all of the strategic resources and capabilities positively influence firm performance in expansionary periods, only the superior product characteristics are pertinent in surviving an economic downturn.

Aquaculture Research and Development as an Entry-Point and Contributor to Natural Resources and Coastal Management

Recent, fervent international dialogue concerning the existence and magnitude of impacts associated with aquaculture has had both positive and negative outcomes. Aquaculture stakeholders have become sensitized to requirements for improved environmental management of aquaculture. on the other hand, in some cases aquaculture development has been negatively affected by some of the unwarranted and unproved allegations to the detriment of the stakeholders most in need of aquaculture development (i.e., resource users, particularly the poor, who are dependent on natural resources). These resource users are targeted by, and directly influence biodiversity and conservation agendas; hence the need to understand how to gain their active participation. This discussion focuses on examples of how aquaculture research and development can be a useful tool or strategy for resource management initiatives and provide tangible positive including increased stakeholder participation and cooperation, offering alternatives to resource extraction and use in otherwise difficult or intransigent resource management conflicts.

SMEs in the environmental goods and services market: identifying areas of opportunity, policies and instruments: case studies: Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Mexico

Includes bibliography

Patterns of penetration of ICT goods and services in Latin American and Caribbean households: analysis based on data from national population and housing censuses, round 2000

Includes bibliography

The liberalization of environmental goods and services: overview and implications for Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography