Freshwater fishes distribution in Taiwan and continent of China and its biogeographical significance

Through the comparative analysis of primary freshwater fishes in Chinese continent and the Taiwan Island, we summarize the three distinctions of distribution of freshwater fishes in these areas: (i) there exists a high similarity of freshwater fish fauna between Taiwan and the southeastern shore of the continent; (ii) some species of freshwater fish are found both in the Taiwan Island and East Himalayans; (iii) different freshwater fishes have different distributions in island arch of western Pacific where Taiwan is located, but the distribution pattern shows a similarity to that of adjacent continent. The characteristic distributions of the fishes are closely related to the change in paleogeography and geology in the area. The parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE analysis) indicates that the three distribution patterns can be explained by the vicariance theory.

Population genetic structure of crimson snapper Lutjanus erythropterus in East Asia, revealed by analysis of the mitochondrial control region

The population genetic structure of the crimson snapper Lutjanus erythropterus in East Asia was examined with a 427-bp hypervariable portion of the mtDNA control region. A total of 262 samples were collected and 75 haplotypes were obtained. Neutrality tests (Tajima's and Fu's) suggested that Lutjanus erythropterus in East Asia had experienced a bottleneck followed by population expansion since the late Pleistocene. Despite the low phylogeographic structures in mtDNA haplotypes, a hierarchical examination of populations in 11 localities from four geographical regions using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicated significant genetic differentiation among regions (Phi(CT) = 0.08564, p < 0.01). Limited gene flow between the eastern region (including a locality in the western Pacific Ocean and two localities in the East Sea) and three geographic regions of the South China Sea largely contributed to the genetic subdivision. However, comparisons among three geographic regions of the South China Sea showed little to no genetic difference. Populations of Lutjanus erythropterus in East Asia are inferred to be divided into two major groups: an eastern group, including populations of the western Pacific Ocean and the East Sea, and a South China Sea group, consisting of populations from northern Malaysia to South China. The results suggest that fishery management should reflect the genetic differentiation and diversity in East Asia. (c) 2006 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The variation of upper ocean structure and paleoproductivity in the Kuroshio source region during the last 200 kyr

A core from the source region of the Kuroshio warm current (east of the Luzon Island) was analyzed using several proxies in order to study the variability of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Primary productivity (PP) variations were deduced from variations in the coccolith flora. Primary productivity was higher during glacial periods (the end of Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 3, some periods in MIS 2 and 6), and decreased during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS Se and probably MIS 5c-5d), with the lowest PP in MIS 5e. variations in the delta C-13 difference in benthic and bulk carbonate, thus in the vertical gradient of delta C-13 in dissolved inorganic carbon (Delta delta C-13(c). (wuellerstorfi-N. dutertrei) and Delta delta C-13(c.) (wuellerstorfi-coccolith)) Coincided With the PP Changes, showing that export productivity was low during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS 5e and Holocene) and high during glacial periods (MIS 6, probably MIS 5c-5d, late MIS 4 and late MIS 3). Comparison of foraminiferal carbonate dissolution indicators and PP changes reveals that nannofossil assemblage in core Ph05-5 is not sensitive to carbonate dissolution intensity. The depth of the thermocline (DOT) was estimated from planktonic forminiferal assemblages, and was relatively greater during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS 5e, probably MIS 5c and Holocene) than during glacials (middle MIS 6, probably MIS 5b and 5d, some periods in MIS 4, MIS 3 and MIS 2). Good coherence between the paleoproductivity records and the DOT suggests that the DOT changes could be the primary control factor in changes of paleoproductivity, and the glacial high productivity in the Kuroshio source region could be associated with a global increase of nutrient concentration in the intermediate waters that upwelled into the photic zone. The low CO2 values derived for intervals of high productivity and a relatively shallow DOT suggest that the changes in biological productivity and DOT in the equatorial Pacific could have modified atmospheric CO2 concentrations. High Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) during the warm MIS 5e in combination with intensified monsoonal rain fall could have resulted in a more intense stratification of the upper waters, resulting in low nutrient supply to the surface waters and a resulting decrease in productivity. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Responses of summertime extreme wave heights to local climate variations in the East China Sea

We detected the responses of summertime extreme wave heights (H-top10, average of the highest 10% of significant wave heights in June, July and August) to local climate variations in the East China Sea by applying an empirical orthogonal function analysis to Htop10 derived from the WAVEWATCH- III wave model driven by 6 hourly sea surface wind fields from ERA-40 reanalysis over the period 1958-2002. Decreases in H-top10 in the northern East China Sea ( Yellow Sea) correspond to attenuation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, while increases in the south are primarily due to enhancement of tropical cyclone activities in the western North Pacific.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

EAWM-related air-sea-land interaction and the Asian summer monsoon circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.

Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.

An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1A degrees x1A degrees) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3A degrees N/138A degrees E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13A degrees S/74A degrees E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.

热带西太平洋边缘晚第四纪以来的古环境研究

利用取自热带太平洋边缘的5个柱状岩芯Ph05-5、WP3、MD2908、Z14-6和WP7，通过对其微体古生物和生物地球化学成分的分析，结合浮游有孔虫氧、碳同位素数据、AMS14C测年结果和已有的研究资料，分别研究了热带西太平洋边缘晚第四纪以来的钙质超微化石群落特征、碳酸盐旋回、超微化石氧碳同位素特征、古生产力和上层海水结构演化以及高分辨率东亚夏季风指标，并探讨了碳酸盐旋回、古生产力和上层海水结构演化、全新世东亚夏季风强弱变化的控制机制，以及钙质超微化石下透光带属种Florisphaera profunda的相对百分含量变化在热带太平洋边缘的古环境指示意义及不同环境条件下的控制机制。 西菲律宾海Ph05-5岩芯和台湾东南部WP3岩芯中CaCO3和钙质超微化石碳酸盐溶解指数、初级生产力指标的变化显示约190 kyr BP以来CaCO3含量整体上都表现为冰期高、间冰期低的“太平洋型”旋回特征，但菲律宾以东海区在末次冰期（MIS 4~2期）内部又显示出间冰段含量高、冰段含量低的“大西洋型”旋回特征。碳酸盐旋回的主要控制因素在菲律宾以东海区是碳酸盐溶解作用，而台湾东南海区则是初级生产力变化引起的钙质生物输入量的波动。 西菲律宾海Ph05-5岩芯中190 kyr BP以来的钙质超微化石δ18O值在末次间冰期（MIS 5e）和全新世明显低于末次冰期（MIS 5d~2）和倒数第二次冰期（MIS 6）。超微化石δ18O值与浮游和底栖有孔虫δ18O值都呈明显的正相关关系，但是超微化石的δ18O平均值重于表层浮游有孔虫Globigeriniodes rubber，轻于中层Neogloboquadrina dutertrei。超微化石δ13C值变化与其绝对丰度变化表明西菲律宾海区大约在MIS 6和MIS 5e期，表层海水初级生产力相当稳定且显著低于其它各时期；约从MIS 5d期开始表层初级生产力显著上升，并一直持续到末次冰期；在MIS1、2期，表层初级生产力有所下降，但仍高于MIS 6和MIS 5e期。 Ph05-5岩芯中钙质超微化石下透光带属种F. profunda相对百分含量和浮游有孔虫转换函数的温跃层深度变化表明西太平洋暖池北缘约190 kyr BP 以来，营养跃层和温跃层冰期（MIS 6期和5d~2期）浅，间冰期（MIS5e）和全新世深，MIS5e期是最近两个冰期旋回中营养跃层和温跃层深度最深的时期。F. profunda百分含量初级生产力转换方程计算结果和与钙质超微化石绝对丰度的变化显示冰期初级生产力高，间冰期和全新世初级生产力低， MIS5e期初级生产力最低。此外，Δδ13C C. wullerstorf-coccolith和Δδ13C C. wullerstorf-N. dutertrei差值的变化也说明190 kyr BP以来冰期表层输出生产力高于间冰期，其中最为突出的特征也是MIS5e期为生产力输出的最低值期。上层海水结构和生产力的上述变化特征与现代La Niňa事件爆发时的海洋环境相当类似，该海区MIS5e期可能是La Niňa事件频繁爆发的一段时期，可以与现代La Niňa现象类比。同时，根据Wyrtki提出的信风张弛理论推测MIS5e期，由于La Niňa事件的频繁爆发黑潮主流应该是增强的。 热带西太平洋暖池核心区WP7岩芯中250 kyr BP以来的初级生产力在间冰期明显低于冰期，间冰期生产力相对稳定，冰期(MIS6，4和2)生产力升降幅度较大；冰期向间冰期过渡的冰消期内生产力的降低是相对缓慢的，而间冰期向冰期过渡时生产力的增加是迅速的。初级生产力指标的交叉频谱分析显示出偏心率、斜率、岁差（半岁差）、30kyr和50kyr周期。说明暖池区晚第四纪以来古生产力变动除了受全球冰量变动控制以外，低纬区的岁差驱动也是主要控制因子。约250 kyr BP以来古生产力的变化与Vostok冰心的CO2记录在30kyr周期上高度相关，低CO2值与高生产力相对应，印证了大洋初级生产力在全球碳循环中扮演了重要的“吸收者”的角色，30kyr周期是赤道太平洋地区生物生产力ENSO式变化特征的体现，这也证明了低纬地区生物泵在控制大气CO2浓度方面的重要作用。另外，在岁差周期段，底栖有孔虫U+B含量和N. dutertrei δ13C代表的生产力变动领先于有孔虫δ18O代表的冰体积变化约2.6~7kyr（0.5kyr,2.6 kyr,4.2 kyr, 7kyr），表明在千年时间尺度上日射是该区生产力变化的直接驱动力，两极冰体积变化（δ18O）没有明显的影响低纬气候波动。 对热带西太平洋边缘海区WP7、Ph05-5、WP3和Z14-6四个岩芯中晚第四纪以来超微化石下透光带属种F. profunda相对百分含量变化进行横向对比研究表明，F. profunda百分含量分布并非简单受水深控制，而是由海水上层复杂的生态因素所决定；F. profunda相对百分含量变化曲线与浮游有孔虫N. dutertrei氧同位素曲线呈不同程度的相关性，N. dutertrei 氧同位素越轻，对应的F. profunda相对百分含量越高；冲绳海槽中部的Z14-6岩芯中F. profunda相对含量变化的主控因子是黑潮流的强弱变化；WP7和Ph05-5两个岩芯中F. profunda相对含量变化与低纬地区暖池变化特征密切相关。 6800 yr BP以来台湾东北部MD2908岩芯中F. profunda相对百分含量变化与太阳黑子数量呈明显的反相关关系，而且3700 yrBP以来更为明显。由于F. profunda相对百分含量变化与该地区东亚夏季风引起的降雨量密切相关，所以推测6800 yr BP以来东亚夏季风受太阳活动影响，其中的纽带是IZCT的纬向位置变动。

太平洋西部边界及边界流对赤道暖水库形成和演化的影响

A model of equatorial ocean is used to study the roles of the Pacific western boundary and the Mindanao Current (MC) in the evolution of the equatorial warm pool. The model consists of the single baroclinic mode of a two-layer ocean, with the parameterization of the anomalous increment of the interface representing the SST difference from its long-term-space-mean. The ocean is driven by a wind path in the middle ocean with a real or an artificial geometry assigned at the western and eastern boundaries. In order to test the role of the MC, the western boundary current is introduced into the model by a boundary condition at a position, real and unreal, respectively. The model experiments show that the warm pool, which is insensitive to the longitudinal width of the wind band in middle ocean, results mainly from the accumulation o the eastly-drifted warm water in the equatorial western Pacific. It is the dominant factor for the formation of the warm pool that, at a very low latitude, the Papua New Guinea coast intersects the longitudinally lined Philippine Islands at an obtuse angle. In contrast, the western Atlantic boundary, which inclines poleward from the equator at some 135 degrees, could guide the warm water there moving to a higher latitude. On the other hand, the equatorial warm pool in the western equatorial Pacific is very sensitive to the assignment of th Mindanao Current at 7.5°N and displaces southward, with a stronger southern branch than the northern one. We attribute this asymmetry to the combined effect of the western boundary and the MC upon the equatorial warm away from the equator. A by-product of our solutions is the possible mechanism of the "secondary warm pool" in the eastern Pacific north of the equator. It is suggested that, mainly or partly, the "secondary warm pool" results from the cooperation of the southeast monsoon in eastern Pacific and the eastern boundary hindering the propagation of the Kelvin wave poleward alongshore.

西太平洋—印度洋—青藏高原气候系统在南海夏季风爆发过程中的作用

本文利用美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR—National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)的位势高度、气温、风速等大气资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心 （ECMWF—European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—ERA-40）的雪深资料、美国国家海洋大气管理局（NOAA—National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）的海表温度（SST）资料、美国Scripps海洋研究所的上层海洋热含量资料等，采取相关分析、合成分析、经验正交函数分析、小波分析和小波交叉谱分析等统计分析方法，系统深入地讨论了西太平洋—印度洋—青藏高原气候系统在南海夏季风爆发过程中的作用。得到的主要结论如下： 1. 西太平洋和印度洋在南海夏季风爆发过程中起着关键作用 利用1951－1998年多种大气海洋资料，分析研究结果表明，西太平洋（暖池热含量）、印度洋（纬向风）在南海夏季风爆发中起关键的调控作用：以1970年为界，1970年之前，印度洋起主要作用，1970年之后西太平洋起主要作用，这主要是1970前后北极涛动有明显跃变的原因，这种跃变决定了印度洋在南海夏季风爆发中是否起决定作用（西风异常或东风异常），进而，决定了有利于或不利于南海夏季风的爆发。 1970年之前，北极涛动指数为负值，海陆温差（海上气温减大陆气温）是负值，大陆气温偏高，印度洋气温相对偏低，印度洋出现西风异常，有利于南海夏季风早爆发。在此期间，与印度洋SST密切相关的南印度洋偶极子的变化也与南海夏季风的爆发紧密相联。当南印度洋为正偶极子（西南印度洋SST为正异常，印度洋其他区域的SST为负异常）时，北印度洋为西风异常，南海夏季风爆发偏早；南印度洋为负偶极子（西南印度洋SST为负异常，印度洋其他地区的SST为正异常）时，北印度洋为东风异常，南海夏季风爆发偏晚。 1970年之后，北极涛动指数为正值，海陆气温差为正值，印度洋的状态不利于南海季风爆发；在这种情况下，西太平洋暖池的热含量则成为控制南海夏季风爆发的主要原因：暖池变暖的年份，即 La Niña 年，南海夏季风爆发早（强），反之，当暖池变冷的年份，即El Niño年，南海季风爆发晚（弱），即，南海夏季风爆发的早（强）晚（弱）与ENSO事件密切相关。 2.青藏高原春季积雪对南海夏季风爆发有重要的影响 1958-2003年青藏高原3月积雪厚度与南海夏季风爆发时间存在着很好的正相关。青藏高原3月积雪厚度偏厚时，其500毫巴以上的气温偏低，上层海陆之间的气温差是正值，南亚高压向西北方向的移动速度变慢，上层东风偏弱，西太平洋地区的上层辐散和下层辐合变弱，西太平洋暖池热含量偏少，南海夏季风爆发偏晚（弱）。同时，下层850毫巴东印度洋异常大气是东风和跨赤道反气旋对，南海被东风异常所控制，这种大气环流形势不利于南海夏季风的爆发；青藏高原3月积雪厚度偏薄时，其500毫巴以上的气温偏高，上层海陆之间的气温差是负值，上层南亚高压在南亚地区建立较早，上层东风偏强，西太平洋地区的上层辐散和下层辐合偏强，西太平洋暖池热含量偏多，南海夏季风爆发偏早（强）。同时，下层850毫巴东印度洋低层大气是西风异常和跨赤道气旋对，南海被西南风异常所控制，有利于南海夏季风的爆发。 研究结果还表明，青藏高原春季的积雪与厄尔尼诺事件存在着密切的关系。在厄尔尼诺鼎盛期的冬季，各种条件都有利于青藏高原的降雪，从而，来年春天的积雪则变厚，不利于南海季风的爆发。 3. 南海夏季风爆发的预测 1970年之后，西太平洋暖池的热含量与南海夏季风的爆发早晚有非常好的负相关。据此，我们可以通过西太平洋暖池热含量的变化来预测南海夏季风的爆发。通过暖池区海洋上层400米热含量的分析研究，我们找到了西太平洋暖池热含量变化的代表站点（以3N，138E为中心的1°×1°范围），其热含量变化能很好代表整个西太平洋暖池热含量的变化（相关系数大于0.85）。在此基础上，文章用1993-2007年热带大气海洋浮标列阵（TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array）中最靠近该站点的浮标（2N, 137E）资料验证了上述选择站点的代表性和相应的预测能力。1993-2004年TAO浮标（2N, 137E）3月上层400米和500米海洋热含量与南海夏季风爆发时间的相关系数分别是-0.75，-0.73，置信度均超过99%；用1993-2007年4月份TAO浮标（2N, 137E）上层400米和500米海洋热含量与南海夏季风爆发时间作相关则相关系数均为-0.83，置信度超过99%。因此，我们可以通过3月或者4月份该TAO浮标（2N, 137E）的热含量来预测当年南海夏季风爆发的早（强）晚（弱）。 总之，南海夏季风爆发以1970年为界存在明显的年代际变化，1970年之前，主要受印度洋控制，1970年之后，南海夏季风爆发主要受控于太平洋（西太平洋暖池），这种变化是由北极涛动年代际变化引起的，。青藏高原春季积雪也对南海夏季风有重要影响，但主要受ENSO控制。因此，我们认为西太平洋—印度洋—青藏高原气候系统在南海夏季风爆发中起着重要的调控作用：西太平洋的作用当属第一位，印度洋的作用居第二，青藏高原的作用最弱。

大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

西太平洋暖池纬向变异规律研究

西太平洋暖池汇集着世界上开阔海洋中温度最高的海水，它的维持和变化对全球天气和气候的变化起着关键性的作用。从海洋学角度全面而系统地研究西太平洋暖池的纬向变异特征、机制以及暖池纬向变异对ENSO的影响等科学问题，对深入了解发生在暖池区的海气耦合过程，全面认识暖池变异在ENSO循环及在全球气候变化中的作用是不可缺少的，该项研究具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。 本文根据长时间序列的海洋和大气资料，利用EOF、小波等分析方法较系统地研究了西太平洋暖池整层暖水纬向运移特征、暖池水体的时空振荡及暖池纬向的运移、时空振荡对ENSO的影响，分析了西太平洋暖池和东太平洋暖池对ENSO的联合影响，探讨了风场和流场对西太平洋暖池纬向变异的影响，并用一个简单的海洋模式，对暖池纬向变异的动力机制进行了诊断分析。主要研究内容及结果如下： 利用加权平均法，建立了一个表征整体暖池纬向运移的指标序列，分析了暖池纬向运移的时频特征以及暖池内部暖水在纬向运移上的差异，并探讨了暖池的纬向运移对赤道西太平洋海平面高度和温跃层深度的影响以及与ENSO的关系。结果显示：暖池的纬向运移具有显著的2-7a的年际变化和10-16a的年代际变化，并于1976年前后经历了一次气候跃变。暖池内部大致可以50m深度水层为界分为上、下两部分，暖池的上半部分纬向运移幅度非常大，而下半部分则相对较小。暖池的纬向运移不仅是赤道西太平洋海平面高度和温跃层深度异常变化的一个非常重要的直接因素，而且对ENSO的形成与发展有非常重要的作用。 为进一步了解暖池整体的时空振荡及其影响，分别对暖池厚度场、热带太平洋风应力场、海表面高度和热含量场进行了EOF分析。结果显示，西太平洋暖池水体具有大致以赤道为横轴的经向“跷跷板”式季节性反位相振荡和大致以 170o E为纵轴的纬向“跷跷板”式年际反位相振荡。纬向振荡是暖池厚度异常场年际变率的的主导模态。西太平洋暖池暖水的纬向运移是造成暖池水体纬向振荡的主要原因。热带太平洋海表面高度与热含量异常场有着非常相似的ENSO时间尺度的振荡特征：即大致以5o N为横轴的经向“跷跷板”式反位相振荡和大致以170o W为纵轴的纬向“跷跷板”式反位相振荡。而与ENSO密切相关的热带太平洋风应力异常场也存在着纬向和经向两种主要模态，分别表现为近赤道的纬向风异常和远赤道的经向风异常。西太平洋暖池的纬向振荡对风应力异常存在滞后1个月左右的响应和显著的相互作用关系。西太平洋暖池纬向振荡能够造成热带太平洋水体质量与热量的重新分配，并通过强烈的海气相互作用对ENSO循环形成与发展起着重要的作用。 西太平洋暖池和东太平洋暖池是热带太平洋两个重要的暖水区。在系统分析西太平洋暖池的纬向变异和东太平洋暖池的经向变异特征基础上，提出了两暖池对ENSO循环联合影响的新观点，并建立了一个联合影响指数。结果显示，当联合指数达1.6时，则预示着一次新El Nino的发生。这为ENSO的研究和预测提供了一个新线索。 数据分析显示，赤道中太平洋的纬向风应力及上层纬向流异常是暖池纬向运移的两个重要的动力因素，且两者对暖池的纬向运移有良好的预报意义。利用一个简单的海洋模式模拟结果，分析了风驱动下的上层纬向流异常、波动(Kelvin波和Rossby波)及其在边界的反射效应对暖池纬向运移的动力影响。模式结果显示：中太平洋上层纬向流异常是西太平洋暖池纬向运移的主要驱动机制。暖池的纬向运移对波模态流具有滞后约4个月的响应，而风漂流对暖池纬向运移的影响则比较适时。波动在太平洋东、西两边界的反射效应对暖池西缩的影响较大。

长白山火山成因—物理机制和化学演化

This thesis is one of the contributions to NSFC project, “The Changbaishan Volcanism and its Links to the Northeast Asia Tectonic System”. The thesis presents our most recent works on Changbaishan Volcanism, on two aspects as (1) the chemical evolution of the Cenozoic volcanism and the physical links of magma genesis, (2) the Holocene activity of the Tianchi Volcano and risks of potential eruption. 1. Chemical evolution and physical links to the Changbaishan Volcanism Physical links to the Chanbaishan Volcanism, just like origins of most of the volcanisms in eastern China, has long been an enigma. A large scale of volcanic activity has dominated many places of eastern China in Meso-Cenozoic. Activity of these volcanisms in eastern China covers several quite different blocks, covers variety of tectonics, and covers a period of time over 200 million years. Such a large-scale and long-lived volcanism in a continental area challenges our knowledge on dynamics of the Earth’s interior. Some works on “Diwa” hypothesis and “lithospheric thinning” hypothesis present possible links between volcanisms and dynamic evolutions of the earth’s interior, but still cannot interpret where are the sources of the heat and fluid, which are essential to the volcanisms. Based on the study of this thesis, we suggest that dynamics of the deep subduction of western Pacific Plate is the critical factor to the Changbaishan Volcanism and volcanisms in NE China, and maybe even essential to most of the Meso-Cenozoic volcanisms in eastern China. In NE China, stagnant slabs flatted in the mantle transition zone (MTZ, ca. 660 km deep) transport and release significant hydrous fluid to the upper mantle. Metamorphism of the deep-subducted slabs and hence a series of mineral phases play an important role in the water transport, exchange, restore, and release. Dehydrated fluid of the wet slab ascending from the MTZ fertile the upper mantle, and also provide upward heat flow which is essential to the magma genesis. Then magma and volcanism occur with the deep subduction from Mesozoic to mordern time in eastern China. To discribe the exact chemical characteristics of the deep subduction releated volcanics is very difficult, because few researches has contributed to the chemical behaviors of fluid and trace elments in the very deep interior of the Earth, such 660 km deep, 410km or 350km where the fluid may ascend and react. However we can still find some chemical characteristics of oceanic subduction. Basalts of the Changbaishan Volcanism have siginficant characteristics of potassium rich, and even can be called a potassic igneous province. If there are only two possible ways, recycled continentical crust or oceanic crust, to fertile the mantle potossium element as we know now, it’s easy to attribute this to the deep-subducted of the west Pacific Plate. To the eastern China, fluid inclusions in mantle xenoliths from the Cenozic basalts also reveal potassium-rich characteristics. This reveals that the same potassium feritle agents may occur in the mantle sources of eastern China. 2. Holocene activiy of the Tianchi Volcano As one of the large volcanic center and complex volcanic cone, the Tianchi Volcano is a dangerous active volcano, with several Holocene eruptions. Among these eruptions, the Millennium Eruption is regardede as one of the biggist eruptions in the world in the last 2000 years. To estimate the potential danger of volcanic eruption, we discuss two essential factors, as (i) volcanic history of Holocene eruptions, including volcanic geolgy, chronnology and chemistry, (ii) state, evolution and relationship of the magma chambers in mantle and crust beneath the Tianchi Volcano.

南海张裂大陆边缘数值模拟研究

The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the largest marginal seas in the western Pacific, which is located at the junction of Eurasian plate, Pacific plate and Indian-Australian plate. It was formed by continent breakup and sea-floor spreading in Cenozoic. The complicated interaction among the three major plates made tectonic movement complex and geological phenomena very rich in this area. The SCS is an ideal place to study the formation and evolution of rifted continental margin and sea-floor spreading since it is old enough to have experienced the major stages of the basin evolution but still young enough to have preserved its original nature. As the demand for energy grows day by day in our country, the deep water region of the northern continental margin in the SCS has become a focus of oil and gas exploration because of its huge hydrocarbon potential. Therefore, to study the rifted continental margin of the SCS not only can improve our understanding of the formation and evolution processes of rifted continental margin, but also can provide theoretical support for hydrocarbon exploration in rifted continental margin. This dissertation mainly includes five topics as follows: (1) Various classic lithosphere stretching models are reviewed, and the continuous non-uniform stretching model is modified to make it suitable for the case where the extension of lithopheric mantle exceeds that of the crust. Then simple/pure shear flexural cantilever model is applied to model the basement geometries of SO49-18 profile in the northern continental margin of the SCS. By fitting the basements obtained by using 2DMove software with modeling results, it is found that the reasonable effective elastic thickness is less than 5km in this region. According to this result, it is assumed that there is weak lower crust in the northern continental margin in the SCS. (2) We research on the methods for stretching factor estimation based on various lithosphere stretching models, and apply the method based on multiple finite rifting model to estimate the stretching factors of several wells and profiles in the northern continental margin of the SCS. (3) We improve one-dimension strain rate inversion method with conjugate gradient method, and apply it to invert the strain rate of several wells in the northern continental margin of the SCS. Two-dimension strain rate forward modeling is carried out, and the modeling results show that effective elastic thickness is a key parameter to control basin’s geometry. (4) We simulate divergent upwelling mantle flow model using finite difference method, and apply this newly developed model to examine the formation mechanism of the northwest and central sub-basin in the SCS. (5) We inverse plate thickness and basal temperature of oceanic lithosphere using sea-floor ages and bathymetries of the North Pacific and the North Atlantic based on varied-parameters plate model, in which the heat conductivity, heat capacity and coefficient of thermal expansion depend on temperature or depth. A new empirical formula is put forward based the inversed parameters, which depicts the relation among sea-floor age, bathymetry and heat flow. Then various similar empirical formulae, including the newly developed one, are applied to examine the sea-floor spread issue in the SCS based on the heat flow and bathymetry data of the abyssal sub-basin.