Elaborative interrogation as a learning technique for students with learning disabilities

This study examined whether or not students with learning disabilities could effectively use a question and answer strategy known as elaborative interrogation. This technique involved students answering why they thought facts based on familiar animal stories were true. Thirty students from a provincial demonstration high school (for students with learning disabilities) were assigned to one of two study conditions, (a) elaborative interrogation or (b) reading for understanding. Three students, one from the experimental condition and two from the control did not complete the study. Both conditions required that the students learn 36 facts concerning six familiar animals. Immediately following the study session the students completed a free-recall test, a matched association test and a questionnaire regarding their perceived difficulty of the animal stories. After 30 days a matched association test was completed. The oneway ANOVA, 2 x 2 split plot ANOVA and Tukey's Honestly Significant Test were used to determine significance. There was no significant difference in the two conditions for free recall retention. There were significant differences in the elaborative interrogation condition for the immediate matched association test and for the 30-day matched association test. The probability of the students' responses in the elaborative interrogation were measured to determine the effects of adequate responses on long-term retention. It was found that the adequate responses were more likely to promote retention than inadequate responses. In conclusion, long-term retention of factual information was significantly better in the elaborative interrogation condition in comparison to the reading for understanding control. For future research, the dependent measure, free recall should be given both verbally and in written format. In addition, extra time should be allowed for processing of the new information to occur.

Chapman Family burial plot, Forest Lawn, Glendale, California

Chapman Family burial plot, Forest Lawn, Glendale, California. "La Carita" statue.

Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN), Market Volatility, and High-Frequency Liquidity

We assess the predictive ability of three VPIN metrics on the basis of two highly volatile market events of China, and examine the association between VPIN and toxic-induced volatility through conditional probability analysis and multiple regression. We examine the dynamic relationship on VPIN and high-frequency liquidity using Vector Auto-Regression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analysis. Our results suggest that Bulk Volume VPIN has the best risk-warning effect among major VPIN metrics. VPIN has a positive association with market volatility induced by toxic information flow. Most importantly, we document a positive feedback effect between VPIN and high-frequency liquidity, where a negative liquidity shock boosts up VPIN, which, in turn, leads to further liquidity drain. Our study provides empirical evidence that reflects an intrinsic game between informed traders and market makers when facing toxic information in the high-frequency trading world.

Flippable Pairs and Subset Comparisons in Comparative Probability Orderings and Related Simple Games

We show that every additively representable comparative probability order on n atoms is determined by at least n - 1 binary subset comparisons. We show that there are many orders of this kind, not just the lexicographic order. These results provide answers to two questions of Fishburn et al (2002). We also study the flip relation on the class of all comparative probability orders introduced by Maclagan. We generalise an important theorem of Fishburn, Peke?c and Reeds, by showing that in any minimal set of comparisons that determine a comparative probability order, all comparisons are flippable. By calculating the characteristics of the flip relation for n = 6 we discover that the regions in the corresponding hyperplane arrangement can have no more than 13 faces and that there are 20 regions with 13 faces. All the neighbours of the 20 comparative probability orders which correspond to those regions are representable. Finally we define a class of simple games with complete desirability relation for which its strong desirability relation is acyclic, and show that the flip relation carries all the information about these games. We show that for n = 6 these games are weighted majority games.

David Hume on probability and the Gambler’s fallacy

Cette présentation examinera le degré de certitude qui peut être atteint dans le domaine scientifique. Le paradigme scientifique est composé de deux extrêmes; causalité et déterminisme d'un côté et probabilité et indéterminisme de l'autre. En faisant appel aux notions de Hume de la ressemblance et la contiguïté, on peut rejeter la causalité ou le hasard objectif comme étant sans fondement et non empirique. Le problème de l'induction et le sophisme du parieur proviennent d’une même source cognitif / heuristique. Hume décrit ces tendances mentales dans ses essais « Of Probability » et « Of the Idea of Necessary Connexion ». Une discussion sur la conception de la probabilité de Hume ainsi que d'autres interprétations de probabilité sera nécessaire. Même si la science glorifie et idéalise la causalité, la probabilité peut être comprise comme étant tout aussi cohérente. Une attitude probabiliste, même si elle est également non empirique, pourrait être plus avantageuse que le vieux paradigme de la causalité.

Does Chance hide Necessity? : a reevaluation of the debate ‘determinism - indeterminism’ in the light of quantum mechanics and probability theory

Dans cette thèse l’ancienne question philosophique “tout événement a-t-il une cause ?” sera examinée à la lumière de la mécanique quantique et de la théorie des probabilités. Aussi bien en physique qu’en philosophie des sciences la position orthodoxe maintient que le monde physique est indéterministe. Au niveau fondamental de la réalité physique – au niveau quantique – les événements se passeraient sans causes, mais par chance, par hasard ‘irréductible’. Le théorème physique le plus précis qui mène à cette conclusion est le théorème de Bell. Ici les prémisses de ce théorème seront réexaminées. Il sera rappelé que d’autres solutions au théorème que l’indéterminisme sont envisageables, dont certaines sont connues mais négligées, comme le ‘superdéterminisme’. Mais il sera argué que d’autres solutions compatibles avec le déterminisme existent, notamment en étudiant des systèmes physiques modèles. Une des conclusions générales de cette thèse est que l’interprétation du théorème de Bell et de la mécanique quantique dépend crucialement des prémisses philosophiques desquelles on part. Par exemple, au sein de la vision d’un Spinoza, le monde quantique peut bien être compris comme étant déterministe. Mais il est argué qu’aussi un déterminisme nettement moins radical que celui de Spinoza n’est pas éliminé par les expériences physiques. Si cela est vrai, le débat ‘déterminisme – indéterminisme’ n’est pas décidé au laboratoire : il reste philosophique et ouvert – contrairement à ce que l’on pense souvent. Dans la deuxième partie de cette thèse un modèle pour l’interprétation de la probabilité sera proposé. Une étude conceptuelle de la notion de probabilité indique que l’hypothèse du déterminisme aide à mieux comprendre ce que c’est qu’un ‘système probabiliste’. Il semble que le déterminisme peut répondre à certaines questions pour lesquelles l’indéterminisme n’a pas de réponses. Pour cette raison nous conclurons que la conjecture de Laplace – à savoir que la théorie des probabilités présuppose une réalité déterministe sous-jacente – garde toute sa légitimité. Dans cette thèse aussi bien les méthodes de la philosophie que de la physique seront utilisées. Il apparaît que les deux domaines sont ici solidement reliés, et qu’ils offrent un vaste potentiel de fertilisation croisée – donc bidirectionnelle.

A Study on the Reversed Lack of Memory Property and its Generalizations

In this thesis, the concept of reversed lack of memory property and its generalizations is studied.We we generalize this property which involves operations different than the ”addition”. In particular an associative, binary operator ” * ” is considered. The univariate reversed lack of memory property is generalized using the binary operator and a class of probability distributions which include Type 3 extreme value, power function, reflected Weibull and negative Pareto distributions are characterized (Asha and Rejeesh (2009)). We also define the almost reversed lack of memory property and considered the distributions with reversed periodic hazard rate under the binary operation. Further, we give a bivariate extension of the generalized reversed lack of memory property and characterize a class of bivariate distributions which include the characterized extension (CE) model of Roy (2002a) apart from the bivariate reflected Weibull and power function distributions. We proved the equality of local proportionality of the reversed hazard rate and generalized reversed lack of memory property. Study of uncertainty is a subject of interest common to reliability, survival analysis, actuary, economics, business and many other fields. However, in many realistic situations, uncertainty is not necessarily related to the future but can also refer to the past. Recently, Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (2009) introduced a new measure of information called dynamic cumulative entropy. Dynamic cumulative entropy is suitable to measure information when uncertainty is related to the past, a dual concept of the cumulative residual entropy which relates to uncertainty of the future lifetime of a system. We redefine this measure in the whole real line and study its properties. We also discuss the implications of generalized reversed lack of memory property on dynamic cumulative entropy and past entropy.In this study, we extend the idea of reversed lack of memory property to the discrete set up. Here we investigate the discrete class of distributions characterized by the discrete reversed lack of memory property. The concept is extended to the bivariate case and bivariate distributions characterized by this property are also presented. The implication of this property on discrete reversed hazard rate, mean past life, and discrete past entropy are also investigated.

Characterization of Probability Distributions by Variance Bounds and its Applications

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Probability Theory. Stochastic Processes And Their Applications Probabilistic Analysis Of Some Queueing And Inventory Models

In this thesis we attempt to make a probabilistic analysis of some physically realizable, though complex, storage and queueing models. It is essentially a mathematical study of the stochastic processes underlying these models. Our aim is to have an improved understanding of the behaviour of such models, that may widen their applicability. Different inventory systems with randon1 lead times, vacation to the server, bulk demands, varying ordering levels, etc. are considered. Also we study some finite and infinite capacity queueing systems with bulk service and vacation to the server and obtain the transient solution in certain cases. Each chapter in the thesis is provided with self introduction and some important references

Bayesian Analysis of Simple Step-stress Model under Weibull Lifetimes

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science & Technology, Part of this work has been supported by grants from DST and CSIR, Government of India. 2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, IIT Kanpur

Application of inclusive probability theory to heavy ion-atom collisions

Using the independent particle model as our basis we present a scheme to reduce the complexity and computational effort to calculate inclusive probabilities in many-electron collision system. As an example we present an application to K - K charge transfer in collisions of 2.6 MeV Ne{^9+} on Ne. We are able to give impact parameter-dependent probabilities for many-particle states which could lead to KLL-Auger electrons after collision and we compare with experimental values.

Inclusive probability calculations for the K-vacancy transfer in collisions of S{^15+} on Ar

Using the single-particle amplitudes from a 20-level coupled-channel calculation with ab initio relativistic self consistent LCAO-MO Dirac-Fock-Slater energy eigenvalues and matrix elements we calculate within the frame of the inclusive probability formalism impact-parameter-dependent K-hole transfer probabilities. As an example we show results for the heavy asymmetric collision system S{^15+} on Ar for impact energies from 4.7 to 16 MeV. The inclusive probability formalism which reinstates the many-particle aspect of the collision system permits a qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experiment which is not achieved by the single-particle picture.