A deformation model of flexible, high area-to-mass ratio debris under perturbations and validation method

A new type of space debris was recently discovered by Schildknecht in near -geosynchronous orbit (GEO). These objects were later identified as exhibiting properties associated with High Area-to-Mass ratio (HAMR) objects. According to their brightness magnitudes (light curve), high rotation rates and composition properties (albedo, amount of specular and diffuse reflection, colour, etc), it is thought that these objects are multilayer insulation (MLI). Observations have shown that this debris type is very sensitive to environmental disturbances, particularly solar radiation pressure, due to the fact that their shapes are easily deformed leading to changes in the Area-to-Mass ratio (AMR) over time. This thesis proposes a simple effective flexible model of the thin, deformable membrane with two different methods. Firstly, this debris is modelled with Finite Element Analysis (FEA) by using Bernoulli-Euler theory called “Bernoulli model”. The Bernoulli model is constructed with beam elements consisting 2 nodes and each node has six degrees of freedom (DoF). The mass of membrane is distributed in beam elements. Secondly, the debris based on multibody dynamics theory call “Multibody model” is modelled as a series of lump masses, connected through flexible joints, representing the flexibility of the membrane itself. The mass of the membrane, albeit low, is taken into account with lump masses in the joints. The dynamic equations for the masses, including the constraints defined by the connecting rigid rod, are derived using fundamental Newtonian mechanics. The physical properties of both flexible models required by the models (membrane density, reflectivity, composition, etc.), are assumed to be those of multilayer insulation. Both flexible membrane models are then propagated together with classical orbital and attitude equations of motion near GEO region to predict the orbital evolution under the perturbations of solar radiation pressure, Earth’s gravity field, luni-solar gravitational fields and self-shadowing effect. These results are then compared to two rigid body models (cannonball and flat rigid plate). In this investigation, when comparing with a rigid model, the evolutions of orbital elements of the flexible models indicate the difference of inclination and secular eccentricity evolutions, rapid irregular attitude motion and unstable cross-section area due to a deformation over time. Then, the Monte Carlo simulations by varying initial attitude dynamics and deformed angle are investigated and compared with rigid models over 100 days. As the results of the simulations, the different initial conditions provide unique orbital motions, which is significantly different in term of orbital motions of both rigid models. Furthermore, this thesis presents a methodology to determine the material dynamic properties of thin membranes and validates the deformation of the multibody model with real MLI materials. Experiments are performed in a high vacuum chamber (10-4 mbar) replicating space environment. A thin membrane is hinged at one end but free at the other. The free motion experiment, the first experiment, is a free vibration test to determine the damping coefficient and natural frequency of the thin membrane. In this test, the membrane is allowed to fall freely in the chamber with the motion tracked and captured through high velocity video frames. A Kalman filter technique is implemented in the tracking algorithm to reduce noise and increase the tracking accuracy of the oscillating motion. The forced motion experiment, the last test, is performed to determine the deformation characteristics of the object. A high power spotlight (500-2000W) is used to illuminate the MLI and the displacements are measured by means of a high resolution laser sensor. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and multibody dynamics of the experimental setups are used for the validation of the flexible model by comparing with the experimental results of displacements and natural frequencies.

effects of weight and injected dose in the liver’s Signal-to-Noise Ratio in patients submitted to PET/CT scans

The quality of the image of 18F-FDG PET/CT scans in overweight patients is commonly degraded. This study evaluates, retrospectively, the relation between SNR, weight and dose injected in 65 patients, with a range of weights from 35 to 120 kg, with scans performed using the Biograph mCT using a standardized protocol in the Nuclear Medicine Department at Radboud University Medical Centre in Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Five ROI’s were made in the liver, assumed to be an organ of homogenous metabolism, at the same location, in five consecutive slices of the PET/CT scans to obtain the mean uptake (signal) values and its standard deviation (noise). The ratio of both gave us the Signal-to- Noise Ratio in the liver. With the help of a spreadsheet, weight, height, SNR and Body Mass Index were calculated and graphs were designed in order to obtain the relation between these factors. The graphs showed that SNR decreases as the body weight and/or BMI increased and also showed that, even though the dose injected increased, the SNR also decreased. This is due to the fact that heavier patients receive higher dose and, as reported, heavier patients have less SNR. These findings suggest that the quality of the images, measured by SNR, that were acquired in heavier patients are worst than thinner patients, even though higher FDG doses are given. With all this taken in consideration, it was necessary to make a new formula to calculate a new dose to give to patients and having a good and constant SNR in every patient. Through mathematic calculations, it was possible to reach to two new equations (power and exponential), which would lead to a SNR from a scan made with a specific reference weight (86 kg was the considered one) which was independent of body mass. The study implies that with these new formulas, patients heavier than the reference weight will receive higher doses and lighter patients will receive less doses. With the median being 86 kg, the new dose and new SNR was calculated and concluded that the quality of the image remains almost constant as the weight increases and the quantity of the necessary FDG remains almost the same, without increasing the costs for the total amount of FDG used in all these patients.

Calculation of mutual information for nonlinear communication channel at large signal-to-noise ratio

Using the path-integral technique we examine the mutual information for the communication channel modeled by the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with additive Gaussian noise. The nonlinear Schrödinger equation is one of the fundamental models in nonlinear physics, and it has a broad range of applications, including fiber optical communications - the backbone of the internet. At large signal-to-noise ratio we present the mutual information through the path-integral, which is convenient for the perturbative expansion in nonlinearity. In the limit of small noise and small nonlinearity we derive analytically the first nonzero nonlinear correction to the mutual information for the channel.

Cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiometabolic risk factors in schoolchildren from Colombia: The FUPRECOL Study

The objectives of this study are to investigate the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiovascular risk factors in schoolchildren and to evaluate the degree of association between overall and abdominal adiposity and cardiorespiratory fitness. A total of 1,875 children and adolescents attending public schools in Bogota, Colombia (56.2% girls; age range of 9–17.9 years). A cardiovascular risk score (Z-score) was calculated and participants were divided into tertiles according to low and high levels of overall (sum of the skinfold thicknesses) and abdominal adiposity. Schoolchildren with a high level of overall adiposity demonstrated significant differences in seven of the 10 variables analyzed (i.e. systolic and diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, triglycerides/HDL-c ratio, total cholesterol, glucose and cardiovascular risk score). Schoolchildren with high levels of both overall and abdominal adiposity and low cardiorespiratory fitness had the least favorable cardiovascular risk factors score. These findings may be relevant to health promotion in Colombian youth.

Validity and reliability of the international fItness scale (IFIS) in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia: The FUPRECOL study

The International FItness Scale (IFIS) is a self-reported measure of physical fitness that could easily. This scale has been validated in children, adolescents, and young adults; however, it is unknown whether the IFIS represents a valid and reliable estimate of physical fitness in Latino-American youth population. In the present study we aimed to examine the validity and reliability of the IFIS on a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia. Participants were 1,875 Colombian youth (56.2% girls) aged 9 to 17.9 years old. We measured adiposity markers (body fat, waist-to-height ratio, skinfold thicknesses and BMI), blood pressure, lipids profile, fasting glucose, and physical fitness level (self reported and measured). Also, a validated cardiometabolic risk index was used. An age- and sex-matched sample of 229 Schoolchildren originally not included in the study sample fulfilled IFIS twice for reliability purposes. Our data suggest that both measured and self-reported overall fitness were associated inversely with adiposity indicators and a cardiometabolic risk score. Overall, schoolchildren who self-reported “good” and “very good” fitness had better measured fitness than those who reported “very poor” and “poor” fitness (all p<0.001). Test–retest reliability of IFIS items was also good, with an average weighted Kappa of 0.811. Therefore, our findings suggest that self-reported fitness, as assessed by IFIS, is a valid, reliable, and health-related measure, and it can be a good alternative for future use in large studies with Latin-schoolchildren from Colombia.

Effects of the Mediterranean diet and exercise in subjects with coronary artery disease

Introduction The association of the Mediterranean diet and exercise appears to have a protective role, reducing cardiovascular risk. This study investigated the effects of education sessions on the Mediterranean diet and an exercise program in modifying eating behaviors, body composition and abdominal fat. Methods An experimental study was performed on 20 subjects with known coronary heart disease randomly assigned to experimental (n=10) and control (n=10) groups. Both groups received education sessions on the Mediterranean diet, but the experimental group also followed an eight-week program of specific exercises. A semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire was administered to analyze food intake, bioimpedance was used to measure weight, fat mass and lean mass, and waist circumference was measured to calculate waist-to-height ratio. Results After eight weeks, protein (p<0.05) and cholesterol (p<0.05) intake in the experimental group had decreased significantly compared with the control group. Between the beginning and end of the study, there were significant decreases in the control group in carbohydrate (p<0.05) and saturated fat intake (p<0.05). In both groups the percentage of total fat (p<0.05) and fat mass (p<0.05) was significantly decreased. In the experimental group the waist-to-height ratio was significantly reduced (p<0.05). Conclusion The Mediterranean diet reduced carbohydrate and saturated fat intake, reflected in reduced fat mass. The association of the exercise program showed additional benefits in reduction of protein and cholesterol intake and abdominal fat.

Different nutritional-state indicators of HIV-positive individuals undergoing antiretroviral therapy

This study aimed at learning about the nutritional profile of HIV-positive individuals undergoing antiretroviral therapy and at comparing the performance of nutritional-state indicators. A transversal study was performed on 94 patients attending the Tropical Diseases Outpatient Hospital of Botucatu Medical School (FMB)-UNESP. The body mass index (BMI) and the classification by Papini-Berto (PB) were used to evaluate nutritional state, aiming at detecting malnutrition and obesity. The waist-to-hips ratio (W/HR) and waist circumference (WC) were adopted for identification of abdominal obesity and lipodystrophy. According to BMI, most of the individuals were eutrophic, followed by 30.9% overweight and 6.4% malnourished. By using the PB classification, the frequency of malnourished increased (22.3%). The analysis of the PB classification in relation to BMI indicated that the former presented high sensitivity and good specificity for malnutrition diagnosis, namely 100% and 83%, respectively. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 7.44% according to WC, and a higher prevalence (38.3%) was observed when taking W/HR into account. There was significant positive association between nutritional diagnosis according to PB and T CD4(+) lymphocyte. The results support the use of PB classification for malnutrition detection as well as that of BMI and W/HR for overweight and fat redistribution.

Influence of asthma definition on the asthma-obesity relationship

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest an association between obesity and asthma in adults and children. Asthma diagnosis criteria are different among studies. The aim of this study was to test the influence of asthma definition on the asthma-obesity relationship. Methods: In a cross-sectional analysis of 1922 men and women, subjects completed a translated questionnaire from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey and underwent spirometry and a bronchial challenge test. Weight, height and waist circumference were measured. Multiple logistic regression analysis was carried out to assess the association of variables related to obesity and asthma. Asthma was defined either by the presence of symptoms with bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) or by a self-report of a physician-made diagnosis. The following variables were separately tested for associations with asthma: socioeconomic characteristics, schooling, physical activity, smoking status, anthropometry and spirometry. Results: No association was detected between asthma confirmed by BHR and obesity indicators, odds ratio (OR) = 1.08 (95% confidence interval: 0.69 - 1.68) for obesity assessed by body mass index >= 30 kg/m(2); OR = 1.02 (0.74 - 1.40) for obesity assessed by abnormal waist-to-height ratio; and, OR = 0.96 (0.69 - 1.33) for abnormal waist circumference. On the contrary, a previous diagnosis of asthma was associated with obesity, OR = 1.48 (1.01 - 2.16) for body mass index >= 30 kg/m(2); OR = 1.48 (1.13 - 1.93) for abnormal waist-to-height ratio; and, OR = 1.32 (1.00 - 1.75) for abnormal waist circumference. Female gender, schooling >= 12 years and smoking were associated with BHR-confirmed asthma. Physically inactive subjects were associated with a previous diagnosis of asthma. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that the relationship between asthma and obesity in epidemiological studies depends on the definition adopted. Certain components of asthma, for instance, symptoms may be more prone to the obesity influence than other ones, like bronchial hyperresponsiveness.

Obésité abdominale et autres déterminants du risque cardiométabolique dans deux populations urbaines noires apparentées : Port-au-Prince (Haïti) et Cotonou (Bénin)

L’obésité est un problème de santé publique reconnu. Dans la dernière décennie l’obésité abdominale (OA) a été considérée comme une maladie métabolique qui contribue davantage au risque de diabète et de maladies cardiovasculaires que l’obésité générale définie par l’indice de masse corporelle. Toutefois, dans les populations d’origine africaine, la relation entre l’OA et les autres biomarqueurs de risque cardiométabolique (RCM) demeure obscure à cause du manque d’études chez ces populations et de l’absence de valeurs-seuils spécifiques pour juger d’une OA. Cette étude visait à comparer la prévalence des biomarqueurs de RCM (OA, hypertension artérielle, hyperglycémie, dyslipidémie, résistance à l'insuline et inflammation pré-clinique) chez les Béninois de Cotonou et les Haïtiens de Port-au-Prince (PAP), à étudier l’association de l’OA avec les autres biomarqueurs de RCM, à documenter le rôle du niveau socio-économique (NSE) et du mode de vie dans cette association et à ’identifier les indicateurs anthropométriques de l’OA -tour de taille (TT) et le ratio TT/hauteur (TT/H)- et les seuils qui prédisent le mieux le RCM à Cotonou et à PAP. Il s’est agi d’une analyse de données transversales chez 452 adultes (52 % hommes) apparemment en bonne santé, âgés de 25 à 60 ans, avec 200 sujets vivant à Cotonou (Bénin) et 252 sujets à PAP (Haïti). Les biomarqueurs de RCM considérés étaient : le syndrome métabolique (SMet) d’après les critères harmonisés de 2009 et ses composantes individuelles - une OA à partir d’un TT ≥ 94cm chez les hommes et ≥ 80cm chez les femmes, une hypertension, une dyslipidémie et une hyperglycémie; la résistance à l’insuline définie chez l’ensemble des sujets de l’étude à partir du 75e centile de l’Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA-IR); un ratio d’athérogénicité élevé (Cholestérol sérique total/HDL-Cholestérol); et l’inflammation pré-clinique mesurée à partir d’un niveau de protéine C-réactive ultrasensible (PCRus) entre 3 et 10 mg/l. Le ratio TT/H était aussi considéré pour définir l’OA à partir d’un seuil de 0,5. Les données sur les habitudes alimentaires, la consommation d’alcool, le tabagisme, les caractéristiques sociodémographiques et les conditions socio-économiques incluant le niveau d’éducation et un proxy du revenu (basé sur l’analyse par composante principale des biens et des possessions) ont été recueillies au moyen d’un questionnaire. Sur la base de données de fréquence de consommation d’aliments occidentaux, urbains et traditionnels, des schémas alimentaires des sujets de chaque ville ont été identifiés par analyse typologique. La validité et les valeurs-seuils de TT et du ratio TT/H prédictives du RCM ont été définies à partir des courbes ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics). Le SMet était présent chez 21,5 % et 16,1 % des participants, respectivement à Cotonou et à PAP. La prévalence d’OA était élevée à Cotonou (52,5 %) qu’à PAP (36%), avec une prévalence plus élevée chez les femmes que chez les hommes. Le profil lipidique sérique était plus athérogène à PAP avec 89,3 % d’HDL-c bas à PAP contre 79,7 % à Cotonou et un ratio CT/HDL-c élevé de 73,4 % à PAP contre 42 % à Cotonou. Les valeurs-seuils spécifiques de TT et du TT/H étaient respectivement 94 cm et 0,59 chez les femmes et 80 cm et 0,50 chez les hommes. Les analyses multivariées de l’OA avec les biomarqueurs de RCM les plus fortement prévalents dans ces deux populations montraient que l’OA était associée à un risque accru de résistance à l’insuline, d’athérogénicité et de tension artérielle élevée et ceci, indépendamment des facteurs socio-économiques et du mode de vie. Deux schémas alimentaires ont émergé, transitionnel et traditionnel, dans chaque ville, mais ceux-ci ne se révélaient pas associés aux biomarqueurs de RCM bien qu’ils soient en lien avec les variables socio-économiques. La présente étude confirme la présence de plusieurs biomarqueurs de RCM chez des sujets apparemment sains. En outre, l’OA est un élément clé du RCM dans ces deux populations. Les seuils actuels de TT devraient être reconsidérés éventuellement à la lumière d’études de plus grande envergure, afin de mieux définir l’OA chez les Noirs africains ou d’origine africaine, ce qui permettra une surveillance épidémiologique plus adéquate des biomarqueurs de RCM.

Obésité abdominale et autres déterminants du risque cardiométabolique dans deux populations urbaines noires apparentées : Port-au-Prince (Haïti) et Cotonou (Bénin)

L’obésité est un problème de santé publique reconnu. Dans la dernière décennie l’obésité abdominale (OA) a été considérée comme une maladie métabolique qui contribue davantage au risque de diabète et de maladies cardiovasculaires que l’obésité générale définie par l’indice de masse corporelle. Toutefois, dans les populations d’origine africaine, la relation entre l’OA et les autres biomarqueurs de risque cardiométabolique (RCM) demeure obscure à cause du manque d’études chez ces populations et de l’absence de valeurs-seuils spécifiques pour juger d’une OA. Cette étude visait à comparer la prévalence des biomarqueurs de RCM (OA, hypertension artérielle, hyperglycémie, dyslipidémie, résistance à l'insuline et inflammation pré-clinique) chez les Béninois de Cotonou et les Haïtiens de Port-au-Prince (PAP), à étudier l’association de l’OA avec les autres biomarqueurs de RCM, à documenter le rôle du niveau socio-économique (NSE) et du mode de vie dans cette association et à ’identifier les indicateurs anthropométriques de l’OA -tour de taille (TT) et le ratio TT/hauteur (TT/H)- et les seuils qui prédisent le mieux le RCM à Cotonou et à PAP. Il s’est agi d’une analyse de données transversales chez 452 adultes (52 % hommes) apparemment en bonne santé, âgés de 25 à 60 ans, avec 200 sujets vivant à Cotonou (Bénin) et 252 sujets à PAP (Haïti). Les biomarqueurs de RCM considérés étaient : le syndrome métabolique (SMet) d’après les critères harmonisés de 2009 et ses composantes individuelles - une OA à partir d’un TT ≥ 94cm chez les hommes et ≥ 80cm chez les femmes, une hypertension, une dyslipidémie et une hyperglycémie; la résistance à l’insuline définie chez l’ensemble des sujets de l’étude à partir du 75e centile de l’Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA-IR); un ratio d’athérogénicité élevé (Cholestérol sérique total/HDL-Cholestérol); et l’inflammation pré-clinique mesurée à partir d’un niveau de protéine C-réactive ultrasensible (PCRus) entre 3 et 10 mg/l. Le ratio TT/H était aussi considéré pour définir l’OA à partir d’un seuil de 0,5. Les données sur les habitudes alimentaires, la consommation d’alcool, le tabagisme, les caractéristiques sociodémographiques et les conditions socio-économiques incluant le niveau d’éducation et un proxy du revenu (basé sur l’analyse par composante principale des biens et des possessions) ont été recueillies au moyen d’un questionnaire. Sur la base de données de fréquence de consommation d’aliments occidentaux, urbains et traditionnels, des schémas alimentaires des sujets de chaque ville ont été identifiés par analyse typologique. La validité et les valeurs-seuils de TT et du ratio TT/H prédictives du RCM ont été définies à partir des courbes ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics). Le SMet était présent chez 21,5 % et 16,1 % des participants, respectivement à Cotonou et à PAP. La prévalence d’OA était élevée à Cotonou (52,5 %) qu’à PAP (36%), avec une prévalence plus élevée chez les femmes que chez les hommes. Le profil lipidique sérique était plus athérogène à PAP avec 89,3 % d’HDL-c bas à PAP contre 79,7 % à Cotonou et un ratio CT/HDL-c élevé de 73,4 % à PAP contre 42 % à Cotonou. Les valeurs-seuils spécifiques de TT et du TT/H étaient respectivement 94 cm et 0,59 chez les femmes et 80 cm et 0,50 chez les hommes. Les analyses multivariées de l’OA avec les biomarqueurs de RCM les plus fortement prévalents dans ces deux populations montraient que l’OA était associée à un risque accru de résistance à l’insuline, d’athérogénicité et de tension artérielle élevée et ceci, indépendamment des facteurs socio-économiques et du mode de vie. Deux schémas alimentaires ont émergé, transitionnel et traditionnel, dans chaque ville, mais ceux-ci ne se révélaient pas associés aux biomarqueurs de RCM bien qu’ils soient en lien avec les variables socio-économiques. La présente étude confirme la présence de plusieurs biomarqueurs de RCM chez des sujets apparemment sains. En outre, l’OA est un élément clé du RCM dans ces deux populations. Les seuils actuels de TT devraient être reconsidérés éventuellement à la lumière d’études de plus grande envergure, afin de mieux définir l’OA chez les Noirs africains ou d’origine africaine, ce qui permettra une surveillance épidémiologique plus adéquate des biomarqueurs de RCM.

Prevalence of General and Abdominal Obesity in a Nationally Representative Sample of Iranian Children and Adolescents: The CASPIAN-IV Study

Background: Pediatric obesity is one of the predisposing risk factors for many non-communicable diseases. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the national prevalence of general and abdominal obesity among Iranian children and adolescents. Patients and Methods: This cross-sectional nation-wide study was performed in 30 provinces in Iran among 14880 school students aged 6 – 18 years, selected by multistage random cluster sampling. The World Health Organization growth curve was used to categorize Body Mass Index (BMI). Obesity was defined as BMI equal to or higher than the age- and gender-specific 95th percentile; abdominal obesity was considered as waist-to-height ratio of more than 0.5. Results: Data of 13486 out of 14880 invited students were complete (response rate of 90.6%). They consisted of 6543 girls and 75.6% urban residents, and had a mean age of 12.45 (95% CI: 12.40 - 12.51) years. The prevalence rate of general and abdominal obesity was 11.89% (13.58% of boys vs. 10.15% of girls) and 19.12% (20.41% of boys vs. 17.79% of girls), respectively. The highest frequency of obesity was found in the middle school students (13.87% general and 20.84% abdominal obesity). The highest prevalence of general obesity was found in Boushehr (19%) followed by Guilan and Mazandaran (18.3%, 18.3%), while the lowest prevalence was observed in Hormozgan (2.6%). The highest frequency of abdominal obesity was found in Mazandaran (30.2%), Ardabil (29.2%) and Tehran (27.9%). Provinces such as Sistan-Baloochestan (8.4%), Hormozagan (7.4%), and Kerman (11.4%) had the lowest prevalence of abdominal obesity. The Southern and South Eastern provinces had the lowest prevalence of general obesity (2.6% and 5.6%) and abdominal obesity (7.4% and 8.8%). Moreover, the highest prevalence of obesity was found in North and North West Iran by maximum frequency of 18.3% general obesity and 30.2% of abdominal obesity. Conclusions: The results showed a high prevalence of general and abdominal obesity among boys living in the Northern provinces of Iran. The present study provides insights that policy makers should consider action-oriented interventions for prevention and control of childhood obesity at national and sub-national level.

Contribution of the collagen I alpha 1 and vitamin D receptor genes to the risk of hip fracture in elderly women

Context and Objective: Hip fracture is partially genetically determined. The present study was designed to examine the contributions of vitamin D receptor (VDR) and collagen I alpha 1 (COLIA1) genotypes to the liability to hip fracture in postmenopausal women. Design: The study was designed as a prospective population-based cohort investigation. Subjects: Six hundred seventy-seven postmenopausal women of Caucasian background, aged 70 +/- 7 yr (mean +/- SD), have been followed for up to 14 yr. Sixty-nine women had sustained a hip fracture during the period. Main Outcome: Atraumatic hip fractures were prospectively identified through radiologists' reports. Bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip and lumbar spine was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Genotypes: The TaqI and SpI COLIA1 polymorphisms of the VDR and COLIA1 genes were determined. Using the Single Nucleotide Polymorphism database, VDR TT, Tt, and tt genotypes were coded as TT, TC, and CC, whereas COLIA1 SS, Ss, and ss were coded as GG, GT, and TT. Results: Women with VDR CC genotype (16% prevalence) and COLIA1 TT genotype (5% prevalence) had an increased risk of hip fracture [odds ratio (OR) associated with CC, 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-5.3; OR associated with TT, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3-10.8] after adjustment for femoral neck BMD (OR, 3.4 per SD; 95% CI, 2.3-5.0) and age (OR, 1.4 per 5 yr; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7). Approximately 20 and 12% of the liability to hip fracture was attributable to the presence of the CC genotype and TT genotype, respectively. Conclusion: The VDR CC genotype and COLIA1 TT genotype were associated with increased hip fracture risk in Caucasian women, and this association was independent of BMD and age.

Prevalence and trends of the diabetes epidemic in South Asia : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Diabetes mellitus has reached epidemic proportions worldwide. South Asians are known to have an increased predisposition for diabetes which has become an important health concern in the region. We discuss the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes in South Asia and explore the differential risk factors reported. Methods Prevalence data were obtained by searching the Medline® database with; ‘prediabetes’ and ‘diabetes mellitus’ (MeSH major topic) and ‘Epidemology/EP’ (MeSH subheading). Search limits were articles in English, between 01/01/1980–31/12/2011, on human adults (≥19 years). The conjunction of the above results was narrowed down with country names. Results The most recent reported prevalence of pre-diabetes:diabetes in regional countries were; Bangladesh–4.7%:8.5% (2004–2005;Rural), India–4.6%:12.5% (2007;Rural); Maldives–3.0%:3.7% (2004;National), Nepal–19.5%:9.5% (2007;Urban), Pakistan–3.0%:7.2% (2002;Rural), Sri Lanka–11.5%:10.3% (2005–2006;National). Urban populations demonstrated a higher prevalence of diabetes. An increasing trend in prevalence of diabetes was observed in urban/rural India and rural Sri Lanka. The diabetes epidemicity index decreased with the increasing prevalence of diabetes in respective countries. A high epidemicity index was seen in Sri Lanka (2005/2006–52.8%), while for other countries, the epidemicity index was comparatively low (rural India 2007–26.9%; urban India 2002/2005–31.3%, and urban Bangladesh–33.1%). Family history, urban residency, age, higher BMI, sedentary lifestyle, hypertension and waist-hip ratio were associated with an increased risks of diabetes. Conclusion A significant epidemic of diabetes is present in the South Asian region with a rapid increase in prevalence over the last two decades. Hence there is a need for urgent preventive and curative strategies .

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

The AusD Study: A population-based study of the determinants of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration across a broad latitude range

Observational studies suggest that people with a high serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration may have reduced risk of chronic diseases such as osteoporosis, multiple sclerosis, type 1 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers. The AusD Study (A Quantitative Assessment of Solar UV Exposure for Vitamin D Synthesis in Australian Adults) was conducted to clarify the relationships between ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure, dietary intake of vitamin D, and serum 25(OH)D concentration among Australian adults residing in Townsville (19.3°S), Brisbane (27.5°S), Canberra (35.3°S), and Hobart (42.8°S). Participants aged 18-75 years were recruited from the Australian Electoral Roll between 2009 and 2010. Measurements were made of height, weight, waist:hip ratio, skin, hair, and eye color, blood pressure, and grip strength. Participants completed a questionnaire on sun exposure and vitamin D intake, together with 10 days of personal UV dosimetry and an associated sun-exposure and physical-activity diary that was temporally linked to a blood test for measurement of 25(OH)D concentration. Ambient solar UV radiation was also monitored at all study sites. We collected comprehensive, high-quality data from 1,002 participants (459 males, 543 females) assessed simultaneously across a range of latitudes and through all seasons. Here we describe the scientific and methodological issues considered in designing the AusD Study.