Hybrid multi-objective optimization and hybridized self-organizing response surface method

Numerical optimization is a technique where a computer is used to explore design parameter combinations to find extremes in performance factors. In multi-objective optimization several performance factors can be optimized simultaneously. The solution to multi-objective optimization problems is not a single design, but a family of optimized designs referred to as the Pareto frontier. The Pareto frontier is a trade-off curve in the objective function space composed of solutions where performance in one objective function is traded for performance in others. A Multi-Objective Hybridized Optimizer (MOHO) was created for the purpose of solving multi-objective optimization problems by utilizing a set of constituent optimization algorithms. MOHO tracks the progress of the Pareto frontier approximation development and automatically switches amongst those constituent evolutionary optimization algorithms to speed the formation of an accurate Pareto frontier approximation. Aerodynamic shape optimization is one of the oldest applications of numerical optimization. MOHO was used to perform shape optimization on a 0.5-inch ballistic penetrator traveling at Mach number 2.5. Two objectives were simultaneously optimized: minimize aerodynamic drag and maximize penetrator volume. This problem was solved twice. The first time the problem was solved by using Modified Newton Impact Theory (MNIT) to determine the pressure drag on the penetrator. In the second solution, a Parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) solver that includes viscosity was used to evaluate the drag on the penetrator. The studies show the difference in the optimized penetrator shapes when viscosity is absent and present in the optimization. In modern optimization problems, objective function evaluations may require many hours on a computer cluster to perform these types of analysis. One solution is to create a response surface that models the behavior of the objective function. Once enough data about the behavior of the objective function has been collected, a response surface can be used to represent the actual objective function in the optimization process. The Hybrid Self-Organizing Response Surface Method (HYBSORSM) algorithm was developed and used to make response surfaces of objective functions. HYBSORSM was evaluated using a suite of 295 non-linear functions. These functions involve from 2 to 100 variables demonstrating robustness and accuracy of HYBSORSM.

Oxygen content and paleoproductivity from surface sediment samples Y69-86 to PLDS-004G

Quantitative estimation of surface ocean productivity and bottom water oxygen concentration with benthic foraminifera was attempted using 70 samples from equatorial and North Pacific surface sediments. These samples come from a well defined depth range in the ocean, between 2200 and 3200 m, so that depth related factors do not interfere with the estimation. Samples were selected so that foraminifera were well preserved in the sediments and temperature and salinity were nearly uniform (T = 1.5° C; S = 34.6 per mil). The sample set was also assembled so as to minimize the correlation often seen between surface ocean productivity and bottom water oxygen values (r**2 = 0.23 for prediction purposes in this case). This procedure reduced the chances of spurious results due to correlations between the environmental variables. The samples encompass a range of productivities from about 25 to >300 gC m**-2 yr**-1, and a bottom water oxygen range from 1.8 to 3.5 ml/L. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages were quantified using the >62 µm fraction of the sediments and 46 taxon categories. MANOVA multivariate regression was used to project the faunal matrix onto the two environmental dimensions using published values for productivity and bottom water oxygen to calibrate this operation. The success of this regression was measured with the multivariate r? which was 0.98 for the productivity dimension and 0.96 for the oxygen dimension. These high coefficients indicate that both environmental variables are strongly imbedded in the faunal data matrix. Analysis of the beta regression coefficients shows that the environmental signals are carried by groups of taxa which are consistent with previous work characterizing benthic foraminiferal responses to productivity and bottom water oxygen. The results of this study suggest that benthic foraminiferal assemblages can be used for quantitative reconstruction of surface ocean productivity and bottom water oxygen concentrations if suitable surface sediment calibration data sets are developed and appropriate means for detecting no-analog samples are found.

Diatom abundance in surface sediments of the northern North Pacific

In order to map the modern distribution of diatoms and to establish a reliable reference data set for paleoenvironmental reconstruction in the northern North Pacific, a new data set including the relative abundance of diatom species preserved in a total of 422 surface sediments was generated, which covers a broad range of environmental variables characteristic of the subarctic North Pacific, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea between 30° and 70°N. The biogeographic distribution patterns as well as the preferences in sea surface temperature of 38 diatom species and species groups are documented. A Q-mode factor analysis yields a three-factor model representing assemblages associated with the Arctic, Subarctic and Subtropical water mass, indicating a close relationship between the diatom composition and the sea surface temperatures. The relative abundance pattern of 38 diatom species and species groups was statistically compared with nine environmental variables, i.e. the summer sea surface temperature and salinity, annual surface nutrient concentration (nitrate, phosphate, silicate), summer and winter mixed layer depth and summer and winter sea ice concentrations. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicates 32 species and species groups have strong correspondence with the pattern of summer sea surface temperature. In addition, the total diatom flux data compiled from ten sediment traps reveal that the seasonal signals preserved in the surface sediments are mostly from spring through autumn. This close relationship between diatom composition and the summer sea surface temperature will be useful in deriving a transfer function in the subarctic North Pacific for the quantitative paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental studies. The relative abundance of the sea-ice indicator diatoms Fragilariopsis cylindrus and F. oceanica of >20% in the diatom composition is used to represent the winter sea ice edge in the Bering Sea. The northern boundary of the distribution of F. doliolus in the open ocean is suggested to be an indicator of the Subarctic Front, while the abundance of Chaetoceros resting spores may indicate iron input from nearby continents and shelves and induced productivity events in the study area.

(Appendix B) Dinoflagellate cysts in Southeast Pacific Ocean surface sediments

orty-eight surface sediment samples from the southeast (SE) Pacific (25-53°S) are investigated for the determination of the spatial distribution of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts along the western South American continental margin. Fifty-five different taxa are recorded and reflect oceanic or coastal assemblages. The oceanic assemblages are characterised by low cyst concentrations and the dominance of autotrophs, while the coastal assemblages generally contain a higher number of cysts, which are mainly produced by heterotrophic species. Highest cyst concentrations are observed in the active upwelling system offshore Concepción (35-37°S). Brigantedinium spp., Echinidinium aculeatum, Echinidinium granulatum/delicatum and cysts of Protoperidinium americanum dominate assemblages related to upwelling. Echinidinium aculeatum appears to be the best indicator for the presence of all year round active upwelling cells. Other protoperidinioid cysts may also occur in high relative abundances in coastal regions outside active upwelling systems, if the availability of nutrients, co-responsible for the presence/absence of their main food sources such as diatoms and other protists, is sufficient. The importance of nutrient availability as a determining environmental variable influencing cyst signals on a regional scale (SE Pacific) is demonstrated through statistical analyses of the data. Because of the importance of nutrients, uncertainties about the outcomes of quantitative sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions (Modern Analogue Technique) based on dinoflagellate cysts may arise, since no interaction between different hydrographical variables is considered in this approach. The combination of the SE Pacific surface sample dataset with other published cyst data from the Southern Hemisphere resulted in a database which includes 350 samples: the 'SH350 database'. This database is used to test the accuracy of the quantitative reconstructions by calculating and comparing the estimated versus observed values for each site. An attempt to perform quantitative SST reconstructions on the last 25 cal ka of site ODP1233 (41°S; 74°27'W) is made and again stresses the importance of other environmental variables such as nutrient availability in determining the dinoflagellate cyst assemblages.

Ostracode relative abundances and geochemistry in surface sediments from Lake Ohrid

Understanding the ecology of bioindicators such as ostracods is essential in order to reconstruct past environmental and climate change from analysis of fossil assemblages preserved in lake sediment cores. Knowledge of the ecology of ancient Lake Ohrid's ostracod fauna is very limited and open to debate. In advance of the Ohrid ICDP-Drilling project, which has potential to generate high-resolution long-term paleoenvironmental data of global importance in paleoclimate research, we sampled Lake Ohrid and a wide range of habitat types in its surroundings to assess 1) the composition of ostracod assemblages in lakes, springs, streams, and short-lived seasonal water bodies, 2) the geographical distribution of ostracods, and 3) the ecological characteristics of individual ostracod species. In total, 40 species were collected alive, and seven species were preserved as valves and empty carapaces. Of the 40 ostracod species, twelve were endemic to Lake Ohrid. The most common genus in the lake was Candona, represented by 13 living species, followed by Paralimnocythere, represented by five living species. The most frequent species was Cypria obliqua. Species with distinct distributions included Heterocypris incongruens, Candonopsis kingsleii, and Cypria lacustris. The most common species in shallow, flooded areas was H. incongruens, and the most prominent species in ditches was C. kingsleii. C. lacustris was widely distributed in channels, springs, lakes, and rivers. Statistical analyses were performed on a "Lake Ohrid" dataset, comprising the subset of samples from Lake Ohrid alone, and an "entire" dataset comprising all samples collected. The unweighted pair group mean average (UPGMA) clustering was mainly controlled by species-specific depth preferences. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) with forward selection identified water depth, water temperature, and pH as variables that best explained the ostracod distribution in Lake Ohrid. The lack of significance of conductivity and dissolved oxygen in CCA of Ohrid data highlight the uniformity across the lake of the well-mixed waters. In the entire area, CCA revealed that ostracod distribution was best explained by water depth, salinity, conductivity, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Salinity was probably selected by CCA due to the presence of Eucypris virens and Bradleystrandesia reticulata in short-lived seasonal water bodies. Water depth is an important, although indirect, influence on ostracod species distribution which is probably associated with other factors such as sediment texture and food supply. Some species appeared to be indicators for multiple environmental variables, such as lake level and water temperature.

Relative abundance of dinoflagellate cysts in surface sediments and dinoflagellate counts from three sediment cores from the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

In this study we investigate the potential of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) as tools for quantifying past sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the Southern Ocean. For this purpose, a dinocyst reference dataset has been formed, based on 138 surface sediment samples from different circum-Antarctic environments. The dinocyst assemblages of these samples are composed of phototrophic (gonyaulacoid) and heterotrophic (protoperidinioid) species that provide a broad spectrum of palaeoenvironmental information. The relationship between the environmental parameters in the upper water column and the dinocyst distribution patterns of individual species has been established using the statistical method of Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Among the variables tested, summer SST appeared to correspond to the maximum variance represented in the dataset. To establish quantitative summer SST reconstructions, a Modern Analogue Technique (MAT) has been performed on data from three Late Quaternary dinocyst records recovered from locations adjacent to prominent oceanic fronts in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. These dinocyst time series exhibit periodic changes in the dinocyst assemblage during the last two glacial/interglacial-cycles. During glacial conditions the relative abundance of protoperidinioid cysts was highest, whereas interglacial conditions are characterised by generally lower cyst concentrations and increased relative abundance of gonyaulacoid cysts. The MAT palaeotemperature estimates show trends in summer SST changes following the global oxygen isotope signal and a strong correlation with past temperatures of the last 140,000 years based on other proxies. However, by comparing the dinocyst results to quantitative estimates of summer SSTs based on diatoms, radiolarians and foraminifer-derived stable isotope records it can be shown that in several core intervals the dinocyst-based summer SSTs appeared to be extremely high. In these intervals the dinocyst record seems to be highly influenced by selective degradation, leading to unusual temperature ranges and to unrealistic palaeotemperatures. We used the selective degradation index (kt-index) to determine those intervals that have been biased by selective degradation in order to correct the palaeotemperature estimates. We show that after correction the dinocyst based SSTs correspond reasonably well with other palaeotemperature estimates for this region, supporting the great potential of dinoflagellate cysts as a basis for quantitative palaeoenvironmental studies.

Sea surface and the sea floor regionalization of the Southern Ocean by multivariate cluster analysis, links to ArcGIS project files

This study subdivides the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, into seafloor regions using multivariate statistical methods. These regions are categories used for comparing, contrasting and quantifying biogeochemical processes and biodiversity between ocean regions geographically but also regions under development within the scope of global change. The division obtained is characterized by the dominating components and interpreted in terms of ruling environmental conditions. The analysis uses 28 environmental variables for the sea surface, 25 variables for the seabed and 9 variables for the analysis between surface and bottom variables. The data were taken during the years 1983-2013. Some data were interpolated. The statistical errors of several interpolation methods (e.g. IDW, Indicator, Ordinary and Co-Kriging) with changing settings have been compared for the identification of the most reasonable method. The multivariate mathematical procedures used are regionalized classification via k means cluster analysis, canonical-correlation analysis and multidimensional scaling. Canonical-correlation analysis identifies the influencing factors in the different parts of the cove. Several methods for the identification of the optimum number of clusters have been tested. For the seabed 8 and 12 clusters were identified as reasonable numbers for clustering the Weddell Sea. For the sea surface the numbers 8 and 13 and for the top/bottom analysis 8 and 3 were identified, respectively. Additionally, the results of 20 clusters are presented for the three alternatives offering the first small scale environmental regionalization of the Weddell Sea. Especially the results of 12 clusters identify marine-influenced regions which can be clearly separated from those determined by the geological catchment area and the ones dominated by river discharge.

Diatom abundance in surface sediments of the Southern Ocean

Based on the quantitative analysis of diatom assemblages preserved in 274 surface sediment samples recovered in the Pacific, Atlantic and western Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean we have defined a new reference database for quantitative estimation of late-middle Pleistocene Antarctic sea ice fields using the transfer function technique. The Detrended Canonical Analysis (DCA) of the diatom data set points to a unimodal distribution of the diatom assemblages. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicates that winter sea ice (WSI) but also summer sea surface temperature (SSST) represent the most prominent environmental variables that control the spatial species distribution. To test the applicability of transfer functions for sea ice reconstruction in terms of concentration and occurrence probability we applied four different methods, the Imbrie and Kipp Method (IKM), the Modern Analog Technique (MAT), Weighted Averaging (WA), and Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares (WAPLS), using logarithm-transformed diatom data and satellite-derived (1981-2010) sea ice data as a reference. The best performance for IKM results was obtained using a subset of 172 samples with 28 diatom taxa/taxa groups, quadratic regression and a three-factor model (IKM-D172/28/3q) resulting in root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) of 7.27% and 11.4% for WSI and summer sea ice (SSI) concentration, respectively. MAT estimates were calculated with different numbers of analogs (4, 6) using a 274-sample/28-taxa reference data set (MAT-D274/28/4an, -6an) resulting in RMSEP's ranging from 5.52% (4an) to 5.91% (6an) for WSI as well as 8.93% (4an) to 9.05% (6an) for SSI. WA and WAPLS performed less well with the D274 data set, compared to MAT, achieving WSI concentration RMSEP's of 9.91% with WA and 11.29% with WAPLS, recommending the use of IKM and MAT. The application of IKM and MAT to surface sediment data revealed strong relations to the satellite-derived winter and summer sea ice field. Sea ice reconstructions performed on an Atlantic- and a Pacific Southern Ocean sediment core, both documenting sea ice variability over the past 150,000 years (MIS 1 - MIS 6), resulted in similar glacial/interglacial trends of IKM and MAT-based sea-ice estimates. On the average, however, IKM estimates display smaller WSI and slightly higher SSI concentration and probability at lower variability in comparison with MAT. This pattern is a result of different estimation techniques with integration of WSI and SSI signals in one single factor assemblage by applying IKM and selecting specific single samples, thus keeping close to the original diatom database and included variability, by MAT. In contrast to the estimation of WSI, reconstructions of past SSI variability remains weaker. Combined with diatom-based estimates, the abundance and flux pattern of biogenic opal represents an additional indication for the WSI and SSI extent.

Using GIS and Remote Sensing Technologies to Identify Environmental Variables of Malaria Vector Breeding Sites in Western Kenya

This study used Landsat 8 satellite imagery to identify environmental variables of households with malaria vector breeding sites in a malaria endemic rural district in Western Kenya. Understanding the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of malaria has been critical in the strengthening of malaria control programs. Using remote sensing and GIS technologies, this study performed a land classification, NDVI, Tasseled Cap Wetness Index, and derived land surface temperature values of the study area and examined the significance of each variable in predicting the probability of a household with a mosquito breeding site with and without larvae. The findings of this study revealed that households with any potential breeding sites were characterized by higher moisture, higher vegetation density (NDVI) and in urban areas or roads. The results of this study also confirmed that land surface temperature was significant in explaining the presence of active mosquito breeding sites (P< 0.000). The present study showed that freely available Landsat 8 imagery has limited use in deriving environmental characteristics of malaria vector habitats at the scale of the Bungoma East District in Western Kenya.

Physiological and ecological variables measured at the high and low pCO2 reef sections

Experiments have shown that ocean acidification due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations has deleterious effects on the performance of many marine organisms. However, few empirical or modelling studies have addressed the long-term consequences of ocean acidification for marine ecosystems. Here we show that as pH declines from 8.1 to 7.8 (the change expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from 390 to 750 ppm, consistent with some scenarios for the end of this century) some organisms benefit, but many more lose out. We investigated coral reefs, seagrasses and sediments that are acclimatized to low pH at three cool and shallow volcanic carbon dioxide seeps in Papua New Guinea. At reduced pH, we observed reductions in coral diversity, recruitment and abundances of structurally complex framework builders, and shifts in competitive interactions between taxa. However, coral cover remained constant between pH 8.1 and ~7.8, because massive Porites corals established dominance over structural corals, despite low rates of calcification. Reef development ceased below pH 7.7. Our empirical data from this unique field setting confirm model predictions that ocean acidification, together with temperature stress, will probably lead to severely reduced diversity, structural complexity and resilience of Indo-Pacific coral reefs within this century.

Benthic foraminifera in surface sediments, South Atlantic

Sixty surface sediment samples from the eastern South Atlantic Ocean including the Walvis Ridge, the Angola and Cape basins, and the Southwest African continental margin were analysed for their benthic foraminiferal content to unravel faunal distribution patterns and ecological preferences. Live (stained with Rose Bengal) and dead faunas were counted separately and then each grouped by Q-mode principal component analysis into seven principal faunal end-members. Then, multiple regression technique was used to correlate Recent assemblages with available environmental variables and to finally differentiate between four principal groups of environmental agents acting upon the generation of benthic foraminiferal assemblages: (1) seasonality of food supply and organic carbon flux rates, together with oxygen content in the pore and bottom waters; (2) lateral advection of deep-water masses; (3) bottom water carbonate corrosiveness; and (4) energetic state at the benthic boundary layer and grain size composition of the substrate. Food supply and corresponding dissolved oxygen contents in the pore and bottom waters turned out to be the most important factors which control the distribution pattern of the Recent benthic foraminifera. At the continental margin, in the zone of coastal upwelling and its mixing area, benthic foraminiferal assemblages are dominated by stenobathic high-productivity faunas, characterized by elevated standing stocks, low diversities and a large number of endobenthic living species. At the continental shelf and upper continental slope the live assemblages are characterized by Rectuvigerina cylindrica, Uvigerina peregrina s.1., Uvigerina auberiana and Rhizammina spp. while the dead assemblages are characterized by Cassidulina laevigata, Bolivina dilatata, Bulimina costata and B. mexicana. At the lower continental slope strong influence of high organic matter fluxes on the species composition is restricted to the area off the Cunene river mouth, where the live assemblage is dominated by Uvigerina peregrina s.1., the corresponding dead assemblage by Melonis barleeanum and M. zaandamae. In the adjacent areas of the lower continental slope the biocoenosis is characterized by Reophax bilocularis, and Epistominella exigua which becomes dominant in the corresponding dead assemblage. At the Walvis Ridge and in the abyssal Angola and Cape basins, where organic matter fluxes are low and highly seasonal, benthic foraminiferal assemblages reflect both the oligotrophic situation and the deep and bottom water mass configuration. The top and flanks of the Walvis Ridge are inhabited by the Rhizammina, Psammosphaera and R. bilocularis live assemblages, the corresponding dead assemblages are dominated by G. subglobosa on the ridge top and E. exigua on the flanks. Within the highly diverse E. exigua dead assemblage several associated epibenthic species coincide with the core of NADW between about 1600 and 3700 m water depth. These species include Osangularia culter, Cibicidoides kullenbergi, Melonis pompilioides, Bolivinita pseudothalmanni and Bulimina alazanensis. The assemblages of the abyssal Cape and Angola basins are characterized by Nuttallides umbonifer and a high proportion of agglutinated species. These species are adapted to very low organic matter fluxes and a carbonate corrosive environment.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and Bathymodiolus brevior shell variables near Eifuku volcano, Japan, 2009

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are causing ocean acidification, compromising the ability of some marine organisms to build and maintain support structures as the equilibrium state of inorganic carbon moves away from calcium carbonate. Few marine organisms tolerate conditions where ocean pH falls significantly below today's value of about 8.1 and aragonite and calcite saturation values below 1. Here we report dense clusters of the vent mussel B. brevior in natural conditions of pH values between 5.36 and 7.29 on northwest Eifuku volcano, Mariana arc, where liquid carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide emerge in a hydrothermal setting. We find that both shell thickness and daily growth increments in shells from northwest Eifuku are only about half those recorded from mussels living in water with pH>7.8. Low pH may therefore also be implicated in metabolic impairment. We identify four-decade-old mussels, but suggest that the mussels can survive for so long only if their protective shell covering remains intact: crabs that could expose the underlying calcium carbonate to dissolution are absent from this setting. The mussels' ability to precipitate shells in such low-pH conditions is remarkable. Nevertheless, the vulnerability of molluscs to predators is likely to increase in a future ocean with low pH.

Linking Parametric CAD with Adjoint Surface Sensitivities

The goal of this work is to present an efficient CAD-based adjoint process chain for calculating parametric sensitivities (derivatives of the objective function with respect to the CAD parameters) in timescales acceptable for industrial design processes. The idea is based on linking parametric design velocities (geometric sensitivities computed from the CAD model) with adjoint surface sensitivities. A CAD-based design velocity computation method has been implemented based on distances between discrete representations of perturbed geometries. This approach differs from other methods due to the fact that it works with existing commercial CAD packages (unlike most analytical approaches) and it can cope with the changes in CAD model topology and face labeling. Use of the proposed method allows computation of parametric sensitivities using adjoint data at a computational cost which scales with the number of objective functions being considered, while it is essentially independent of the number of design variables. The gradient computation is demonstrated on test cases for a Nozzle Guide Vane (NGV) model and a Turbine Rotor Blade model. The results are validated against finite difference values and good agreement is shown. This gradient information can be passed to an optimization algorithm, which will use it to update the CAD model parameters.

Roche tomography of cataclysmic variables - VII. The long-term magnetic activity of AE Aqr

We present a long-term study of the secondary star in the cataclysmic variable AE Aqr, using Roche tomography to indirectly image starspots on the stellar surface spanning 8 years of observations. The seven maps show an abundance of spot features at both high and low latitudes. We find that all maps have at least one large high-latitude spot region, and we discuss its complex evolution between maps, as well as its compatibility with current dynamo theories. Furthermore, we see the apparent growth in fractional spot coverage, fs, around 45° latitude over the duration of observations, with a persistently high fs near latitudes of 20°. These bands of spots may form as part of a magnetic activity cycle, with magnetic flux tubes emerging at different latitudes, similar to the `butterfly' diagram for the Sun. We discuss the nature of flux tube emergence in close binaries, as well as the activity of AE Aqr in the context of other stars.

Structural Time Series Modeling: an Application to Environmental Variables

A structural time series model is one which is set up in terms of components which have a direct interpretation. In this paper, the discussion focuses on the dynamic modeling procedure based on the state space approach (associated to the Kalman filter), in the context of surface water quality monitoring, in order to analyze and evaluate the temporal evolution of the environmental variables, and thus identify trends or possible changes in water quality (change point detection). The approach is applied to environmental time series: time series of surface water quality variables in a river basin. The statistical modeling procedure is applied to monthly values of physico- chemical variables measured in a network of 8 water monitoring sites over a 15-year period (1999-2014) in the River Ave hydrological basin located in the Northwest region of Portugal.