Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Urban dynamic origin-destination matrices estimation

The aim of this paper is to explore a new approach to obtain better traffic demand (Origin-Destination, OD matrices) for dense urban networks. From reviewing existing methods, from static to dynamic OD matrix evaluation, possible deficiencies in the approach could be identified: traffic assignment details for complex urban network and lacks in dynamic approach. To improve the global process of traffic demand estimation, this paper is focussing on a new methodology to determine dynamic OD matrices for urban areas characterized by complex route choice situation and high level of traffic controls. An iterative bi-level approach will be used, the Lower level (traffic assignment) problem will determine, dynamically, the utilisation of the network by vehicles using heuristic data from mesoscopic traffic simulator and the Upper level (matrix adjustment) problem will proceed to an OD estimation using optimization Kalman filtering technique. In this way, a full dynamic and continuous estimation of the final OD matrix could be obtained. First results of the proposed approach and remarks are presented.

Estimation of travel time on urban networks with midlink sources and sinks

This paper presents a methodology for estimation of average travel time on signalized urban networks by integrating cumulative plots and probe data. This integration aims to reduce the relative deviations in the cumulative plots due to midlink sources and sinks. During undersaturated traffic conditions, the concept of a virtual probe is introduced, and therefore, accurate travel time can be obtained when a real probe is unavailable. For oversaturated traffic conditions, only one probe per travel time estimation interval—360 s or 3% of vehicles traversing the link as a probe—has the potential to provide accurate travel time.

Development of accident modification factors on intersection crash maneuvers

In order to estimate the safety impact of roadway interventions engineers need to collect, analyze, and interpret the results of carefully implemented data collection efforts. The intent of these studies is to develop Accident Modification Factors (AMF's), which are used to predict the safety impact of various road safety features at other locations or in upon future enhancements. Models are typically estimated to estimate AMF's for total crashes, but can and should be estimated for crash outcomes as well. This paper first describes data collected with the intent estimate AMF's for rural intersections in the state of Georgia within the United Sates. Modeling results of crash prediction models for the crash outcomes: angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction) and pedestrian-involved crashes are then presented and discussed. The analysis reveals that factors such as the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, while the median width and the presence of lighting are negatively associated with crashes. The model covariates are related to crash outcome in different ways, suggesting that crash outcomes are associated with different pre-crash conditions.

Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Playpolis : transyouth and urban networking in Seoul

The overarching aim of this study is to create new knowledge about how playful interactions (re)create the city via ubiquitous technologies, with an outlook to apply the knowledge for pragmatic innovations in relevant fields such as urban planning and technology development in the future. The study looks at the case of transyouth, the in-between demographic bridging youth and adulthood in Seoul, one of the most connected, densely populated, and quickly transforming metropolises in the world. To unravel the elusiveness of ‘play’ as a subject and the complexity of urban networks, this study takes a three-tier transdisciplinary approach comprised of an extensive literature review, Shared Visual Ethnography (SVE), and interviews with leading industry representatives who design and develop the playscape for Seoul transyouth. Through these methodological tools, the study responds to the following four research aims: 1. Examine the sociocultural, technological, and architectural context of Seoul 2. Investigate Seoul transyouth’s perception of the self and their technosocial environment 3. Identify the pattern of their playful interaction through which meanings of the self and the city are recreated 4. Develop an analytical framework for enactment of play This thesis argues that the city is a contested space that continuously changes through multiple interactions among its constituents on the seam of control and freedom. At the core of this interactive (re)creation process is play. Play is a phenomenon that is enacted at the centre of three inter-related elements of pressure, possibility, and pleasure, the analytical framework this thesis puts forward as a conceptual apparatus for studying play across disciplines. The thesis concludes by illustrating possible trajectories for pragmatic application of the framework for envisioning and building the creative, sustainable, and seductive city.

Quantitative PCR assay of sewage-associated Bacteroides markers to assess sewage pollution in an urban lake in Dhaka, Bangladesh

This paper aimed to assess the magnitude of sewage pollution in an urban lake in Dhaka, Bangladesh by using Quantitative PCR (qPCR) of sewage-associated Bacteroides HF183 markers. PCR was also used for the quantitative detection of ruminant wastewater-associated CF128 markers along with the enumeration of traditional fecal indicator bacteria, namely, enterococci. The number of enterococci in lake water samples ranged from 1.1 x 104 to 1.9 x 105 CFU/100 ml of water. From the 20 water samples tested, 14 (70%) and 7 (35%) were PCR positive for the HF183 and CF128 markers, respectively. The numbers of the HF183 and CF128 markers in lake water samples were 3.9 x 104 to 6.3 × 107 and 9.3 x 103 to 6.3 x 105 genomic units (GU)/100 ml of water, respectively. The high numbers of enterococci and the HF183 markers indicate sewage pollution and potential health risks to those who use the lake water for non-potable purposes such as bathing and washing clothes. This is the first study that investigated the presence of microbial source tracking (MST) markers in Dhaka, Bangladesh where diarrhoeal diseases is one of the major causes of childhood mortality. The molecular assay as used in this study can provide valuable information on the extent of sewage pollution, thus facilitating the development of robust strategies to minimise potential health risks.

Investigation into travel of transit oriented development : school students’ travel survey of Kelvin Grove Urban Village

Travel surveys were conducted for collecting data related to school students’ travel at Kelvin Grove Urban Village (KGUV). Currently, KGUV has school students studying at grade 10 to 12. As a part of data collection process, travel surveys were undertaken for school students studying. This document contains the questionnaire form used to collect the demographic and travel data related to school students at KGUV. The surveys forms were hand delivered to the school and the responses were collected back via reply paid envelop provided with the questionnaire form.

Urban growth monitoring techniques for sustainable development

This paper discusses the role of advance techniques for monitoring urban growth and change for sustainable development of urban environment. It also presents results of a case study involving satellite data for land use/land cover classification of Lucknow city using IRS-1C multi-spectral features. Two classification algorithms have been used in the study. Experiments were conducted to see the level of improvement in digital classification of urban environment using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique.

Music, Mime & Metamorphosis: Interdisciplinary intersections, interactions and influences between music, mime and corporate communication

This doctoral thesis comprises three distinct yet related projects which investigate interdisciplinary practice across: music collaboration; mime performance; and corporate communication. Both the processes and underpinning research of these projects explore, expose and exploit areas where disparate and apparently conflicting fields of professional practice successfully and effectively; intersect, interact, and inform each other - rather than conflict - thereby enhancing each, both individually and collectively. Informed by three decades of professional practice across: music; stage performance; television; corporate communication; design; and tertiary education, the three projects have produced innovative, creative, and commercial viable outcomes, manifest in a variety of media including: music; written text; digital, audio/visual; and internet. In exploring new practice and creating new knowledge, these project outcomes clearly demonstrate the value and effectiveness of reconciling disparate fields of practice through the application of inter-disciplinary creativity and innovation to professional practice.

Incorporating community history into urban redevelopment

A community history project must be relevant to each person within it so that they see themselves as part of the socio-cultural fabric of the area and feel a sense of ownership of their environment. The Mill Albion community history project is a diverse, multi-layered public history/art program that captures the social heritage of The Mill Albion and allows the community to contribute to their ongoing history. The Albion Flour Mill was built in 1930 at a time when Australia was feeling the effects of its worst economic depression and continued operations for more than 72 years. After ceasing operation in 2005 the site was left to deteriorate. The FKP Property Group purchased the land to undertake a new urban redevelopment project, drawing on the design principles of a traditional ‘village’, while valuing the importance of remembering the community that once included the Flour Mill. This paper reflects on the this project and showcases some of the culturally creative ways this community’s history was told, using methods such as digital stories, contemporary and historical photography and oral history.

Determination of a set of surrogate parameters to assess urban stormwater quality

This paper presents the outcomes of a research project, which focused on developing a set of surrogate parameters to evaluate urban stormwater quality using simulated rainfall. Use of surrogate parameters has the potential to enhance the rapid generation of urban stormwater quality data based on on-site measurements and thereby reduce resource intensive laboratory analysis. The samples collected from rainfall simulations were tested for a range of physico-chemical parameters which are key indicators of nutrients, solids and organic matter. The analysis revealed that [total dissolved solids (TDS) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC)]; [total solids (TS) and total organic carbon (TOC)]; [turbidity (TTU)]; [electrical conductivity (EC)]; [TTU and EC] as appropriate surrogate parameters for dissolved total nitrogen (DTN), total phosphorus (TP), total suspended solids (TSS), TDS and TS respectively. Relationships obtained for DTN-TDS, DTN-DOC, and TP-TS demonstrated good portability potential. The portability of the relationship developed for TP and TOC was found to be unsatisfactory. The relationship developed for TDS-EC and TS-EC also demonstrated poor portability.

The significance of endogeneity problems in crash models: An examination of left-turn lanes in intersection crash models

Crash prediction models are used for a variety of purposes including forecasting the expected future performance of various transportation system segments with similar traits. The influence of intersection features on safety have been examined extensively because intersections experience a relatively large proportion of motor vehicle conflicts and crashes compared to other segments in the transportation system. The effects of left-turn lanes at intersections in particular have seen mixed results in the literature. Some researchers have found that left-turn lanes are beneficial to safety while others have reported detrimental effects on safety. This inconsistency is not surprising given that the installation of left-turn lanes is often endogenous, that is, influenced by crash counts and/or traffic volumes. Endogeneity creates problems in econometric and statistical models and is likely to account for the inconsistencies reported in the literature. This paper reports on a limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation approach to compensate for endogeneity between left-turn lane presence and angle crashes. The effects of endogeneity are mitigated using the approach, revealing the unbiased effect of left-turn lanes on crash frequency for a dataset of Georgia intersections. The research shows that without accounting for endogeneity, left-turn lanes ‘appear’ to contribute to crashes; however, when endogeneity is accounted for in the model, left-turn lanes reduce angle crash frequencies as expected by engineering judgment. Other endogenous variables may lurk in crash models as well, suggesting that the method may be used to correct simultaneity problems with other variables and in other transportation modeling contexts.

On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.