Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Retrospective study on structural neuroimaging in first-episode psychosis

Background. No consensus between guidelines exists regarding neuroimaging in firstepisode psychosis. The purpose of this study is to assess anomalies found in structural neuroimaging exams (brain computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)) in the initial medical work-up of patients presenting first-episode psychosis. Methods. The study subjects were 32 patients aged 18–48 years (mean age: 29.6 years), consecutively admitted with first-episode psychosis diagnosis. Socio-demographic and clinical data and neuroimaging exams (CT and MRI) were retrospectively studied. Diagnostic assessments were made using the Operational Criteria Checklist +. Neuroimaging images (CT and MRI) and respective reports were analysed by an experienced consultant psychiatrist. Results. None of the patients had abnormalities in neuroimaging exams responsible for psychotic symptoms. Thirty-seven percent of patients had incidental brain findings not causally related to the psychosis (brain atrophy, arachnoid cyst, asymmetric lateral ventricles, dilated lateral ventricles, plagiocephaly and falx cerebri calcification). No further medical referral was needed for any of these patients. No significant differences regarding gender, age, diagnosis, duration of untreated psychosis, in-stay and cannabis use were found between patients who had neuroimaging abnormalities versus those without. Discussion. This study suggests that structural neuroimaging exams reveal scarce abnormalities in young patients with first-episode psychosis. Structural neuroimaging is especially useful in first-episode psychosis patients with neurological symptoms, atypical clinical picture and old age.

Gesture performance in first- and multiple-episode patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders

BACKGROUND/AIM Gesturing plays an important role in social behavior and social learning. Deficits are frequent in schizophrenia and may contribute to impaired social functioning. Information about deficits during the course of the disease and presence of severity and patterns of impairment in first-episode patients is missing. Hence, we aimed to investigate gesturing in first- compared to multiple-episode schizophrenia patients and healthy controls. METHODS In 14 first-episode patients, 14 multiple-episode patients and 16 healthy controls matched for age, gender and education, gesturing was assessed by the comprehensive Test of Upper Limb Apraxia. Performance in two domains of gesturing - imitation and pantomime - was recorded on video. Raters of gesture performance were blinded. RESULTS Patients with multiple episodes had severe gestural deficits. For almost all gesture categories, performance was worse in multiple- than in first-episode patients. First-episode patients demonstrated subtle deficits with a comparable pattern. CONCLUSIONS Subjects with multiple psychotic episodes have severe deficits in gesturing, while only mild impairments were found in first-episode patients independent of age, gender, education and negative symptoms. The results indicate that gesturing is impaired at the onset of disease and likely to further deteriorate during its course.

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