Implementation of safety based incentives in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs): an empirical analysis for the case of Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented to circumvent budgetary constraints, and to encourage efficiency and quality in the provision of public infrastructure in order to reach social welfare. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater larger will be the economic reward to the contractor. The main aim of this paper is to identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To that end, Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information of motorways of the Spanish network of 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Analysis of road safety incentives in highway concessions in Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented for three reasons: to circumvent budgetary constraints, encourage efficiency and improvement of quality in the provision of public infrastructure. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance-based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. These performance based standards often refer to different aspects such as technical, environmental and safety issues. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high capacity network in 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles in the highway, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Effectiveness of safety-based incentives in Public Private Partnerships: Evidence from the case of Spain

Many countries around the world are implementing Public?Private?Partnership (PPP) contacts to manage road infrastructure. In some of these contracts the public sector introduces economic incentives to the private operator to foster the accomplishment of social goals. One of the incentives that have been introduced in some PPP contracts is related to safety in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater will be the economic reward to the contractor. The aim of this paper is at identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in highway PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios. To this end Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from highway sections in Spain. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.

Analysis of road safety incentives in highway concessions in Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented for three reasons: to circumvent budgetary constraints, encourage efficiency and improvement of quality in the provision of public infrastructure. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance-based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. These performance based standards often refer to different aspects such as technical, environmental and safety issues. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs. The main aim of this paper is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high capacity network in 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles in the highway, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Do Public Private Partnerships Improve Road Safety? The Case of Toll Concessions in Spain

El Transportation Research Board es un congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte. Aunque las actas publicadas están en formato digital y sin ISSN ni ISBN, lo consideramos lo suficientemente importante como para que se considere en los indicadores. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to evaluate whether PPPs lead to an improvement in road safety, when compared with other infrastructure management systems. Second, is to analyze whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPP contracts in Spain have been effective at improving safety performance. To this end, negative binomial regression models have been applied using information from the Spanish high-capacity network covering years 2007-2009. The results showed that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not manageable by the private concessionaire such as the average annual daily traffic, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of accidents.

AVALIAÇÃO DAS ALTERAÇÕES DENTÁRIAS E DO PERFIL FACIAL OBTIDAS NO TRATAMENTO ORTODÔNTICO COM BRAQUETES AUTOLIGADOS

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal avaliar as inclinações dentárias e o perfil facial de pacientes tratados ortodonticamente com braquete autoligado Damon 2, prescrição padrão. Para este estudo, foi selecionada uma amostra de 18 indivíduos, sendo 12 do sexo masculino e 6 do feminino, com idades que variaram de 12 a 20 anos (idade média de 15 anos) e que apresentavam discrepância de modelo negativa (de 4 mm a 15 mm). Como critério de inclusão, os pacientes deveriam apresentar dentição permanente completa até os segundos molares, má oclusão de Classe I de Angle, telerradiografias em norma lateral do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico e modelos de estudo em gesso dos arcos dentários superiores e inferiores do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico. As medições das inclinações ântero-posteriores dos incisivos centrais superiores e incisivos centrais inferiores e alterações do perfil facial foram realizadas por meio das telerradiografias em norma lateral. As distâncias transversais das regiões de cúspide e cervical inter-caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares, foram obtidas medindo-se os modelos de gesso. Todas as mensurações foram realizadas nas telerradiografias e modelos de gesso obtidos antes do início do tratamento ortodôntico (T1) e no final do tratamento (T2). Após a coleta de todos os dados aplicou-se o teste t de Student para comparar as medidas dos dois tempos avaliados neste estudo. Verificou-se diferença estatisticamente significante (p<0,05) na inclinação dos incisivos centrais inferiores e nas dimensões transversais inter-cúspides e inter-cervicais dos primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares na maxila. Na mandíbula todas as distâncias transversais (inter cúspides e cervicais) de caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares apresentaram significância estatística (p<0,05), exceto a distância inter-cervical dos caninos inferiores. Concluímos que o tratamento ortodôntico sem extrações de pacientes com má oclusão de Classe I realizados com os braquetes Damon 2, prescrição padrão, não promoveu alteração na inclinação vestíbulo-lingual dos incisivos centrais superiores, aumentou a inclinação vestibular dos incisivos centrais inferiores, não alterou o perfil facial e aumentou de modo significativo a dimensão transversal da maxila e da mandíbula por meio de inclinação vestibular de coroa.(AU)

AVALIAÇÃO DAS ALTERAÇÕES DENTÁRIAS E DO PERFIL FACIAL OBTIDAS NO TRATAMENTO ORTODÔNTICO COM BRAQUETES AUTOLIGADOS

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal avaliar as inclinações dentárias e o perfil facial de pacientes tratados ortodonticamente com braquete autoligado Damon 2, prescrição padrão. Para este estudo, foi selecionada uma amostra de 18 indivíduos, sendo 12 do sexo masculino e 6 do feminino, com idades que variaram de 12 a 20 anos (idade média de 15 anos) e que apresentavam discrepância de modelo negativa (de 4 mm a 15 mm). Como critério de inclusão, os pacientes deveriam apresentar dentição permanente completa até os segundos molares, má oclusão de Classe I de Angle, telerradiografias em norma lateral do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico e modelos de estudo em gesso dos arcos dentários superiores e inferiores do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico. As medições das inclinações ântero-posteriores dos incisivos centrais superiores e incisivos centrais inferiores e alterações do perfil facial foram realizadas por meio das telerradiografias em norma lateral. As distâncias transversais das regiões de cúspide e cervical inter-caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares, foram obtidas medindo-se os modelos de gesso. Todas as mensurações foram realizadas nas telerradiografias e modelos de gesso obtidos antes do início do tratamento ortodôntico (T1) e no final do tratamento (T2). Após a coleta de todos os dados aplicou-se o teste t de Student para comparar as medidas dos dois tempos avaliados neste estudo. Verificou-se diferença estatisticamente significante (p<0,05) na inclinação dos incisivos centrais inferiores e nas dimensões transversais inter-cúspides e inter-cervicais dos primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares na maxila. Na mandíbula todas as distâncias transversais (inter cúspides e cervicais) de caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares apresentaram significância estatística (p<0,05), exceto a distância inter-cervical dos caninos inferiores. Concluímos que o tratamento ortodôntico sem extrações de pacientes com má oclusão de Classe I realizados com os braquetes Damon 2, prescrição padrão, não promoveu alteração na inclinação vestíbulo-lingual dos incisivos centrais superiores, aumentou a inclinação vestibular dos incisivos centrais inferiores, não alterou o perfil facial e aumentou de modo significativo a dimensão transversal da maxila e da mandíbula por meio de inclinação vestibular de coroa.(AU)

Moderating Variables Impacting Adherence to the Reducing Disability in Alzheimer's Disease (RDAD) Intervention

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Polymorphisms in glutathione S-transferases and non-melanoma skin cancer risk in Australian renal transplant recipients

Caucasian renal transplant recipients from Queensland, Australia have the highest non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) risk worldwide. Although ultraviolet light (UVR) exposure is critical, genetic factors also appear important. We and others have shown that polymorphism in the glutathione S-transferases (GST) is associated with NMSC in UK recipients. However, the effect of high UVR exposure and differences in immunosuppressive regimen on these associations is unknown. In this study, we examined allelism in GSTM1, GSTM3, GSTT1 and GSTP1 in 361 Queensland renal transplant recipients. Data on squamous (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC), UVR/tobacco exposure and genotype were obtained. Associations with both NMSC risk and numbers were examined using logistic and negative binomial regression, respectively. In the total group, GSTM1 AB [P = 0.049, rate ratio (RR) = 0.23] and GSTM3 AA (P = 0.015, RR = 0.50) were associated with fewer SCC. Recipients were then stratified by prednisolone dose (less than or equal to7 versus >7 mg/day). In the low-dose group, GSTT1 null (P = 0.006, RR = 0.20) and GSTP1 Val/Val (P = 0.021, RR = 0.20) were associated with SCC numbers. In contrast, in the high-dose group, GSTM1 AB (P = 0.009, RR = 0.05), GSTM3 AB (P = 0.042, RR = 2.29) and BB (P = 0.014, RR = 5.31) and GSTP1 Val/Val (P = 0.036, RR = 2.98) were associated with SCC numbers. GSTM1 AB (P = 0.016) and GSTP1 Val/Val (P = 0.046) were also associated with fewer BCC in this group. GSTP1 associations were strongest in recipients with lower UVR/tobacco exposure. The data confirm our UK findings, suggesting that protection against UVR-induced oxidative stress is important in NMSC development in recipients, but that this effect depends on the immunosuppressant regimen.

Food intake and risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in a community: The Nambour skin cancer cohort study

There is some evidence that dietary factors may modify the risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin, but the association between food intake and SCC has not been evaluated prospectively. We examined the association between food intake and SCC incidence among 1,056 randomly selected adults living in an Australian sub-tropical community. Measurement-error corrected estimates of intake in 15 food groups were defined from a validated food frequency questionnaire in 1992. Associations with SCC risk were assessed using Poisson and negative binomial regression to the persons affected and tumour counts, respectively, based on incident, histologically confirmed tumours occurring between 1992 and 2002. After multivariable adjustment, none of the food groups was significantly associated with SCC risk. Stratified analysis in participants with a past history of skin cancer showed a decreased risk of SCC tumours for high intakes of green leafy vegetables (RR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.22-0.91; p for trend = 0.02) and an increased risk for high intake of unmodified dairy products (RR = 2.53, 95% CI: 1.15-5.54; p for trend = 0.03). Food intake was not associated with SCC risk in persons who had no past history of skin cancer. These findings suggest that consumption of green leafy vegetables may help prevent development of subsequent SCCs of the skin among people with previous skin cancer and that consumption of unmodified dairy products, such as whole milk, cheese and yoghurt, may increase SCC risk in susceptible persons.

AVALIAÇÃO DAS ALTERAÇÕES DENTÁRIAS E DO PERFIL FACIAL OBTIDAS NO TRATAMENTO ORTODÔNTICO COM BRAQUETES AUTOLIGADOS

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal avaliar as inclinações dentárias e o perfil facial de pacientes tratados ortodonticamente com braquete autoligado Damon 2, prescrição padrão. Para este estudo, foi selecionada uma amostra de 18 indivíduos, sendo 12 do sexo masculino e 6 do feminino, com idades que variaram de 12 a 20 anos (idade média de 15 anos) e que apresentavam discrepância de modelo negativa (de 4 mm a 15 mm). Como critério de inclusão, os pacientes deveriam apresentar dentição permanente completa até os segundos molares, má oclusão de Classe I de Angle, telerradiografias em norma lateral do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico e modelos de estudo em gesso dos arcos dentários superiores e inferiores do início e final do tratamento ortodôntico. As medições das inclinações ântero-posteriores dos incisivos centrais superiores e incisivos centrais inferiores e alterações do perfil facial foram realizadas por meio das telerradiografias em norma lateral. As distâncias transversais das regiões de cúspide e cervical inter-caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares, foram obtidas medindo-se os modelos de gesso. Todas as mensurações foram realizadas nas telerradiografias e modelos de gesso obtidos antes do início do tratamento ortodôntico (T1) e no final do tratamento (T2). Após a coleta de todos os dados aplicou-se o teste t de Student para comparar as medidas dos dois tempos avaliados neste estudo. Verificou-se diferença estatisticamente significante (p<0,05) na inclinação dos incisivos centrais inferiores e nas dimensões transversais inter-cúspides e inter-cervicais dos primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares na maxila. Na mandíbula todas as distâncias transversais (inter cúspides e cervicais) de caninos, primeiros e segundos pré-molares e primeiros molares apresentaram significância estatística (p<0,05), exceto a distância inter-cervical dos caninos inferiores. Concluímos que o tratamento ortodôntico sem extrações de pacientes com má oclusão de Classe I realizados com os braquetes Damon 2, prescrição padrão, não promoveu alteração na inclinação vestíbulo-lingual dos incisivos centrais superiores, aumentou a inclinação vestibular dos incisivos centrais inferiores, não alterou o perfil facial e aumentou de modo significativo a dimensão transversal da maxila e da mandíbula por meio de inclinação vestibular de coroa.(AU)

Models of Alternating Renewal Process at Discrete Time

We study a class of models used with success in the modelling of climatological sequences. These models are based on the notion of renewal. At first, we examine the probabilistic aspects of these models to afterwards study the estimation of their parameters and their asymptotical properties, in particular the consistence and the normality. We will discuss for applications, two particular classes of alternating renewal processes at discrete time. The first class is defined by laws of sojourn time that are translated negative binomial laws and the second class, suggested by Green is deduced from alternating renewal process in continuous time with sojourn time laws which are exponential laws with parameters α^0 and α^1 respectively.

Dimensioning BCH codes for coherent DQPSK systems with laser phase noise and cycle slips

Forward error correction (FEC) plays a vital role in coherent optical systems employing multi-level modulation. However, much of coding theory assumes that additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) is dominant, whereas coherent optical systems have significant phase noise (PN) in addition to AWGN. This changes the error statistics and impacts FEC performance. In this paper, we propose a novel semianalytical method for dimensioning binary Bose-Chaudhuri-Hocquenghem (BCH) codes for systems with PN. Our method involves extracting statistics from pre-FEC bit error rate (BER) simulations. We use these statistics to parameterize a bivariate binomial model that describes the distribution of bit errors. In this way, we relate pre-FEC statistics to post-FEC BER and BCH codes. Our method is applicable to pre-FEC BER around 10-3 and any post-FEC BER. Using numerical simulations, we evaluate the accuracy of our approach for a target post-FEC BER of 10-5. Codes dimensioned with our bivariate binomial model meet the target within 0.2-dB signal-to-noise ratio.

Improved Criteria for Estimating Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Applications

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) estimates roadway safety performance based on predictive models that were calibrated using national data. Calibration factors are then used to adjust these predictive models to local conditions for local applications. The HSM recommends that local calibration factors be estimated using 30 to 50 randomly selected sites that experienced at least a total of 100 crashes per year. It also recommends that the factors be updated every two to three years, preferably on an annual basis. However, these recommendations are primarily based on expert opinions rather than data-driven research findings. Furthermore, most agencies do not have data for many of the input variables recommended in the HSM. This dissertation is aimed at determining the best way to meet three major data needs affecting the estimation of calibration factors: (1) the required minimum sample sizes for different roadway facilities, (2) the required frequency for calibration factor updates, and (3) the influential variables affecting calibration factors. In this dissertation, statewide segment and intersection data were first collected for most of the HSM recommended calibration variables using a Google Maps application. In addition, eight years (2005-2012) of traffic and crash data were retrieved from existing databases from the Florida Department of Transportation. With these data, the effect of sample size criterion on calibration factor estimates was first studied using a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the minimum sample sizes not only vary across different roadway facilities, but they are also significantly higher than those recommended in the HSM. In addition, results from paired sample t-tests showed that calibration factors in Florida need to be updated annually. To identify influential variables affecting the calibration factors for roadway segments, the variables were prioritized by combining the results from three different methods: negative binomial regression, random forests, and boosted regression trees. Only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Traffic volume was consistently found to be the most influential. In addition, roadside object density, major and minor commercial driveway densities, and minor residential driveway density were also identified as influential variables.