Evaluation of Pareto/D/1/k Queue by Simulation

The finding that Pareto distributions are adequate to model Internet packet interarrival times has motivated the proposal of methods to evaluate steady-state performance measures of Pareto/D/1/k queues. Some limited analytical derivation for queue models has been proposed in the literature, but their solutions are often of a great mathematical challenge. To overcome such limitations, simulation tools that can deal with general queueing system must be developed. Despite certain limitations, simulation algorithms provide a mechanism to obtain insight and good numerical approximation to parameters of queues. In this work, we give an overview of some of these methods and compare them with our simulation approach, which are suited to solve queues with Generalized-Pareto interarrival time distributions. The paper discusses the properties and use of the Pareto distribution. We propose a real time trace simulation model for estimating the steady-state probability showing the tail-raising effect, loss probability, delay of the Pareto/D/1/k queue and make a comparison with M/D/1/k. The background on Internet traffic will help to do the evaluation correctly. This model can be used to study the long- tailed queueing systems. We close the paper with some general comments and offer thoughts about future work.

An adaptive IEEE 802.15.4 MAC layer transmission scheme for applications with heterogeneous traffic

IEEE 802.15.4 networks has the features of low data rate and low power consumption. It is a strong candidate technique for wireless sensor networks and can find many applications to smart grid. However, due to the low network and energy capacities it is critical to maximize the bandwidth and energy efficiencies of 802.15.4 networks. In this paper we propose an adaptive data transmission scheme with CSMA/CA access control, for applications which may have heavy traffic loads such as smart grids. The adaptive access control is simple to implement. Its compatibility with legacy 802.15.4 devices can be maintained. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme with largely improved bandwidth and power efficiency. © 2013 International Information Institute.

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal control with transit signal priority at isolated intersections using parallel genetic algorithms

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal timing is one of the most complex problems in traffic control systems. This dissertation presents a new method that applies the parallel genetic algorithm (PGA) to optimize adaptive traffic signal control in the presence of transit signal priority (TSP). The method can optimize the phase plan, cycle length, and green splits at isolated intersections with consideration for the performance of both the transit and the general vehicles. Unlike the simple genetic algorithm (GA), PGA can provide better and faster solutions needed for real-time optimization of adaptive traffic signal control. ^ An important component in the proposed method involves the development of a microscopic delay estimation model that was designed specifically to optimize adaptive traffic signal with TSP. Macroscopic delay models such as the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) delay model are unable to accurately consider the effect of phase combination and phase sequence in delay calculations. In addition, because the number of phases and the phase sequence of adaptive traffic signal may vary from cycle to cycle, the phase splits cannot be optimized when the phase sequence is also a decision variable. A "flex-phase" concept was introduced in the proposed microscopic delay estimation model to overcome these limitations. ^ The performance of PGA was first evaluated against the simple GA. The results show that PGA achieved both faster convergence and lower delay for both under- or over-saturated traffic conditions. A VISSIM simulation testbed was then developed to evaluate the performance of the proposed PGA-based adaptive traffic signal control with TSP. The simulation results show that the PGA-based optimizer for adaptive TSP outperformed the fully actuated NEMA control in all test cases. The results also show that the PGA-based optimizer was able to produce TSP timing plans that benefit the transit vehicles while minimizing the impact of TSP on the general vehicles. The VISSIM testbed developed in this research provides a powerful tool to design and evaluate different TSP strategies under both actuated and adaptive signal control. ^

Hybrid approaches to estimating freeway travel times using point traffic detector data

The accurate and reliable estimation of travel time based on point detector data is needed to support Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications. It has been found that the quality of travel time estimation is a function of the method used in the estimation and varies for different traffic conditions. In this study, two hybrid on-line travel time estimation models, and their corresponding off-line methods, were developed to achieve better estimation performance under various traffic conditions, including recurrent congestion and incidents. The first model combines the Mid-Point method, which is a speed-based method, with a traffic flow-based method. The second model integrates two speed-based methods: the Mid-Point method and the Minimum Speed method. In both models, the switch between travel time estimation methods is based on the congestion level and queue status automatically identified by clustering analysis. During incident conditions with rapidly changing queue lengths, shock wave analysis-based refinements are applied for on-line estimation to capture the fast queue propagation and recovery. Travel time estimates obtained from existing speed-based methods, traffic flow-based methods, and the models developed were tested using both simulation and real-world data. The results indicate that all tested methods performed at an acceptable level during periods of low congestion. However, their performances vary with an increase in congestion. Comparisons with other estimation methods also show that the developed hybrid models perform well in all cases. Further comparisons between the on-line and off-line travel time estimation methods reveal that off-line methods perform significantly better only during fast-changing congested conditions, such as during incidents. The impacts of major influential factors on the performance of travel time estimation, including data preprocessing procedures, detector errors, detector spacing, frequency of travel time updates to traveler information devices, travel time link length, and posted travel time range, were investigated in this study. The results show that these factors have more significant impacts on the estimation accuracy and reliability under congested conditions than during uncongested conditions. For the incident conditions, the estimation quality improves with the use of a short rolling period for data smoothing, more accurate detector data, and frequent travel time updates.

Variable Speed Limit Strategies to Reduce the Impacts of Traffic Flow Breakdown at Recurrent Freeway Bottlenecks

Variable Speed Limit (VSL) strategies identify and disseminate dynamic speed limits that are determined to be appropriate based on prevailing traffic conditions, road surface conditions, and weather conditions. This dissertation develops and evaluates a shockwave-based VSL system that uses a heuristic switching logic-based controller with specified thresholds of prevailing traffic flow conditions. The system aims to improve operations and mobility at critical bottlenecks. Before traffic breakdown occurrence, the proposed VSL’s goal is to prevent or postpone breakdown by decreasing the inflow and achieving uniform distribution in speed and flow. After breakdown occurrence, the VSL system aims to dampen traffic congestion by reducing the inflow traffic to the congested area and increasing the bottleneck capacity by deactivating the VSL at the head of the congested area. The shockwave-based VSL system pushes the VSL location upstream as the congested area propagates upstream. In addition to testing the system using infrastructure detector-based data, this dissertation investigates the use of Connected Vehicle trajectory data as input to the shockwave-based VSL system performance. Since the field Connected Vehicle data are not available, as part of this research, Vehicle-to-Infrastructure communication is modeled in the microscopic simulation to obtain individual vehicle trajectories. In this system, wavelet transform is used to analyze aggregated individual vehicles’ speed data to determine the locations of congestion. The currently recommended calibration procedures of simulation models are generally based on the capacity, volume and system-performance values and do not specifically examine traffic breakdown characteristics. However, since the proposed VSL strategies are countermeasures to the impacts of breakdown conditions, considering breakdown characteristics in the calibration procedure is important to have a reliable assessment. Several enhancements were proposed in this study to account for the breakdown characteristics at bottleneck locations in the calibration process. In this dissertation, performance of shockwave-based VSL is compared to VSL systems with different fixed VSL message sign locations utilizing the calibrated microscopic model. The results show that shockwave-based VSL outperforms fixed-location VSL systems, and it can considerably decrease the maximum back of queue and duration of breakdown while increasing the average speed during breakdown.

Evaluating the effectiveness of signal timing optimization based on microscopic simulation evaluation

The optimization of the timing parameters of traffic signals provides for efficient operation of traffic along a signalized transportation system. Optimization tools with macroscopic simulation models have been used to determine optimal timing plans. These plans have been, in some cases, evaluated and fine tuned using microscopic simulation tools. A number of studies show inconsistencies between optimization tool results based on macroscopic simulation and the results obtained from microscopic simulation. No attempts have been made to determine the reason behind these inconsistencies. This research investigates whether adjusting the parameters of macroscopic simulation models to correspond to the calibrated microscopic simulation model parameters can reduce said inconsistencies. The adjusted parameters include platoon dispersion model parameters, saturation flow rates, and cruise speeds. The results from this work show that adjusting cruise speeds and saturation flow rates can have significant impacts on improving the optimization/macroscopic simulation results as assessed by microscopic simulation models.

W-CDMA capacity analysis using GIS based planning tools and MATLAB simulation

The evolution of cellular systems towards third generation (3G) or IMT-2000 seems to have a tendency to use W-CDMA as the standard access method, as ETSI decisions have showed. However, there is a question about the improvements in capacity and the wellness of this access method. One of the aspects that worry developers and researchers planning the third generation is the extended use of the Internet and more and more bandwidth hungry applications. This work shows the performance of a W-CDMA system simulated in a PC using cover maps generated with DC-Cell, a GIS based planning tool developed by the Technical University of Valencia, Spain. The maps are exported to MATLAB and used in the model. The system used consists of several microcells in a downtown area. We analyse the interference from users in the same cell and in adjacent cells and the effect in the system, assuming perfect control for each cell. The traffic generated by the simulator is voice and data. This model allows us to work with coverage that is more accurate and is a good approach to analyse the multiple access interference (MAI) problem in microcellular systems with irregular coverage. Finally, we compare the results obtained, with the performance of a similar system using TDMA.

Preventing encrypted traffic analysis

Many existing encrypted Internet protocols leak information through packet sizes and timing. Though seemingly innocuous, prior work has shown that such leakage can be used to recover part or all of the plaintext being encrypted. The prevalence of encrypted protocols as the underpinning of such critical services as e-commerce, remote login, and anonymity networks and the increasing feasibility of attacks on these services represent a considerable risk to communications security. Existing mechanisms for preventing traffic analysis focus on re-routing and padding. These prevention techniques have considerable resource and overhead requirements. Furthermore, padding is easily detectable and, in some cases, can introduce its own vulnerabilities. To address these shortcomings, we propose embedding real traffic in synthetically generated encrypted cover traffic. Novel to our approach is our use of realistic network protocol behavior models to generate cover traffic. The observable traffic we generate also has the benefit of being indistinguishable from other real encrypted traffic further thwarting an adversary's ability to target attacks. In this dissertation, we introduce the design of a proxy system called TrafficMimic that implements realistic cover traffic tunneling and can be used alone or integrated with the Tor anonymity system. We describe the cover traffic generation process including the subtleties of implementing a secure traffic generator. We show that TrafficMimic cover traffic can fool a complex protocol classification attack with 91% of the accuracy of real traffic. TrafficMimic cover traffic is also not detected by a binary classification attack specifically designed to detect TrafficMimic. We evaluate the performance of tunneling with independent cover traffic models and find that they are comparable, and, in some cases, more efficient than generic constant-rate defenses. We then use simulation and analytic modeling to understand the performance of cover traffic tunneling more deeply. We find that we can take measurements from real or simulated traffic with no tunneling and use them to estimate parameters for an accurate analytic model of the performance impact of cover traffic tunneling. Once validated, we use this model to better understand how delay, bandwidth, tunnel slowdown, and stability affect cover traffic tunneling. Finally, we take the insights from our simulation study and develop several biasing techniques that we can use to match the cover traffic to the real traffic while simultaneously bounding external information leakage. We study these bias methods using simulation and evaluate their security using a Bayesian inference attack. We find that we can safely improve performance with biasing while preventing both traffic analysis and defense detection attacks. We then apply these biasing methods to the real TrafficMimic implementation and evaluate it on the Internet. We find that biasing can provide 3-5x improvement in bandwidth for bulk transfers and 2.5-9.5x speedup for Web browsing over tunneling without biasing.

Trajectory prediction uncertainty modelling for Air Traffic Management

The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.

Lot production size problem and simulation of urban transport

OBJECTIVES AND STUDY METHOD: There are two subjects in this thesis: “Lot production size for a parallel machine scheduling problem with auxiliary equipment” and “Bus holding for a simulated traffic network”. Although these two themes seem unrelated, the main idea is the optimization of complex systems. The “Lot production size for a parallel machine scheduling problem with auxiliary equipment” deals with a manufacturing setting where sets of pieces form finished products. The aim is to maximize the profit of the finished products. Each piece may be processed in more than one mold. Molds must be mounted on machines with their corresponding installation setup times. The key point of our methodology is to solve the single period lot-sizing decisions for the finished products together with the piece-mold and the mold-machine assignments, relaxing the constraint that a single mold may not be used in two machines at the same time. For the “Bus holding for a simulated traffic network” we deal with One of the most annoying problems in urban bus operations is bus bunching, which happens when two or more buses arrive at a stop nose to tail. Bus bunching reflects an unreliable service that affects transit operations by increasing passenger-waiting times. This work proposes a linear mathematical programming model that establishes bus holding times at certain stops along a transit corridor to avoid bus bunching. Our approach needs real-time input, so we simulate a transit corridor and apply our mathematical model to the data generated. Thus, the inherent variability of a transit system is considered by the simulation, while the optimization model takes into account the key variables and constraints of the bus operation. CONTRIBUTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: For the “Lot production size for a parallel machine scheduling problem with auxiliary equipment” the relaxation we propose able to find solutions more efficiently, moreover our experimental results show that most of the solutions verify that molds are non-overlapping even if they are installed on several machines. We propose an exact integer linear programming, a Relax&Fix heuristic, and a multistart greedy algorithm to solve this problem. Experimental results on instances based on real-world data show the efficiency of our approaches. The mathematical model and the algorithm for the lot production size problem, showed in this research, can be used for production planners to help in the scheduling of the manufacturing. For the “Bus holding for a simulated traffic network” most of the literature considers quadratic models that minimize passenger-waiting times, but they are harder to solve and therefore difficult to operate by real-time systems. On the other hand, our methodology reduces passenger-waiting times efficiently given our linear programming model, with the characteristic of applying control intervals just every 5 minutes.

Effects of truck traffic on top-down fatigue cracking performance of flexible pavements using a new mechanics-based analysis framework

The mechanics-based analysis framework predicts top-down fatigue cracking initiation time in asphalt concrete pavements by utilising fracture mechanics and mixture morphology-based property. To reduce the level of complexity involved, traffic data were characterised and incorporated into the framework using the equivalent single axle load (ESAL) approach. There is a concern that this kind of simplistic traffic characterisation might result in erroneous performance predictions and pavement structural designs. This paper integrates axle load spectra and other traffic characterisation parameters into the mechanics-based analysis framework and studies the impact these traffic characterisation parameters have on predicted fatigue cracking performance. The traffic characterisation inputs studied are traffic growth rate, axle load spectra, lateral wheel wander and volume adjustment factors. For this purpose, a traffic integration approach which incorporates Monte Carlo simulation and representative traffic characterisation inputs was developed. The significance of these traffic characterisation parameters was established by evaluating a number of field pavement sections. It is evident from the results that all the traffic characterisation parameters except truck wheel wander have been observed to have significant influence on predicted top-down fatigue cracking performance.

Traffic Signal Optimization of Urban Arterial Network by Vehicle-to-Infrastructure

Urbanization has occasionally been linked to negative consequences. Traffic light system in urban arterial networks plays an essential role to the operation of transport systems. The availability of new Intelligent Transportation System innovations paved the way for connecting vehicles and road infrastructure. GLOSA, or the Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory, is a recent integration of vehicle-to-everything (v2x) technology. This thesis emphasized GLOSA system's potential as a tool for addressing traffic signal optimization. GLOSA serves as an advisory to drivers, informing them of the speed they must maintain to reduce waiting time. The considered study area in this thesis is the Via Aurelio Saffi – Via Emilia Ponente corridor in the Metropolitan City of Bologna which has several signalized intersections. Several simulation runs were performed in SUMOPy software on each peak-hour period (morning and afternoon) using recent actual traffic count data. GLOSA devices were placed on a 300m GLOSA distance. Considering the morning peak-hour, GLOSA outperformed the actuated traffic signal control, which is the baseline scenario, in terms of average waiting time, average speed, average fuel consumption per vehicle and average CO2 emissions. A remarkable 97% reduction on both fuel consumption and CO2 emissions were obtained. The average speed of vehicles running through the simulation was increased as well by 7% and a time saved of 25%. Same results were obtained for the afternoon peak hour with a decrease of 98% on both fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, 20% decrease on average waiting time, and an increase of 2% in average speed. In addition to previously mentioned benefits of GLOSA, a 15% and 13% decrease in time loss were obtained during morning and afternoon peak-hour, respectively. Towards the goal of sustainability, GLOSA shows a promising result of significantly lowering fuel consumption and CO2 emissions per vehicle.

Monte Carlo Simulation Of The Response Functions Of Cdte Detectors To Be Applied In X-ray Spectroscopy.

In this work, the energy response functions of a CdTe detector were obtained by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in the energy range from 5 to 160keV, using the PENELOPE code. In the response calculations the carrier transport features and the detector resolution were included. The computed energy response function was validated through comparison with experimental results obtained with (241)Am and (152)Eu sources. In order to investigate the influence of the correction by the detector response at diagnostic energy range, x-ray spectra were measured using a CdTe detector (model XR-100T, Amptek), and then corrected by the energy response of the detector using the stripping procedure. Results showed that the CdTe exhibits good energy response at low energies (below 40keV), showing only small distortions on the measured spectra. For energies below about 80keV, the contribution of the escape of Cd- and Te-K x-rays produce significant distortions on the measured x-ray spectra. For higher energies, the most important correction is the detector efficiency and the carrier trapping effects. The results showed that, after correction by the energy response, the measured spectra are in good agreement with those provided by a theoretical model of the literature. Finally, our results showed that the detailed knowledge of the response function and a proper correction procedure are fundamental for achieving more accurate spectra from which quality parameters (i.e., half-value layer and homogeneity coefficient) can be determined.

Vertical Bone Measurements From Cone Beam Computed Tomography Images Using Different Software Packages.

This article aimed at comparing the accuracy of linear measurement tools of different commercial software packages. Eight fully edentulous dry mandibles were selected for this study. Incisor, canine, premolar, first molar and second molar regions were selected. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images were obtained with i-CAT Next Generation. Linear bone measurements were performed by one observer on the cross-sectional images using three different software packages: XoranCat®, OnDemand3D® and KDIS3D®, all able to assess DICOM images. In addition, 25% of the sample was reevaluated for the purpose of reproducibility. The mandibles were sectioned to obtain the gold standard for each region. Intraclass coefficients (ICC) were calculated to examine the agreement between the two periods of evaluation; the one-way analysis of variance performed with the post-hoc Dunnett test was used to compare each of the software-derived measurements with the gold standard. The ICC values were excellent for all software packages. The least difference between the software-derived measurements and the gold standard was obtained with the OnDemand3D and KDIS3D (-0.11 and -0.14 mm, respectively), and the greatest, with the XoranCAT (+0.25 mm). However, there was no statistical significant difference between the measurements obtained with the different software packages and the gold standard (p> 0.05). In conclusion, linear bone measurements were not influenced by the software package used to reconstruct the image from CBCT DICOM data.

Influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bond strength of adhesive systems to dentin

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bonding effectiveness of etch & rinse and self-etch adhesives to dentin. Eighty sound human molars were distributed into eight groups, according to the permeability level of each sample, measured by an apparatus to assess hydraulic conductance (Lp). Thus, a similar mean permeability was achieved in each group. Three etch & rinse adhesives (Prime & Bond NT - PB, Single Bond -SB, and Excite - EX) and one self-etch system (Clearfil SE Bond - SE) were employed, varying the presence or absence of an intrapulpal pressure (IPP) simulation of 15 cmH2O. After adhesive and restorative procedures were carried out, the samples were stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C, and taken for tensile bond strength (TBS) testing. Fracture analysis was performed using a light microscope at 40 X magnification. The data, obtained in MPa, were then submitted to the Kruskal-Wallis test ( a = 0.05). The results revealed that the TBS of SB and EX was significantly reduced under IPP simulation, differing from the TBS of PB and SE. Moreover, SE obtained the highest bond strength values in the presence of IPP. It could be concluded that IPP simulation can influence the bond strength of certain adhesive systems to dentin and should be considered when in vitro studies are conducted.