Approximating the evacuation of the World Trade Center North Tower using computer simulation

This article concerns an investigation of the full scale evacuation of a building with a configuration similar to that of the World Trade Center (WTC) North Tower using computer simulation. A range of evacuation scenarios is explored in order to better understand the evacuation of the WTC on 11 September 2001. The analysis makes use of response time data derived from a study of published WTC survivor accounts. Geometric details of the building are obtained from architects' plans while the total building population used in the scenarios is based on estimates produced by the National Institute of Standards and Technology formal investigation into the evacuation. This paper attempts to approximate the events of 11 September 2001 and pursue several `what if' questions concerning the evacuation. In particular, the study explores the likely outcome had a single staircase survived intact from top to bottom. More generally, this paper explores issues associated with the practical limits of building size that can be expected to be efficiently evacuated using stairs alone.

Chemical abundances and winds of massive stars in M31: a B-type supergiant and a WC star in OB 10

We present high quality spectroscopic data for two massive stars in the OB 10 association of M31, OB 10-64 (B0 la) and OB 10-WRI (WC6). Medium resolution spectra of both stars were obtained using the ISIS spectrograph on the William Herschel Telescope. This is supplemented with Hubble Space Telescope STIS UV spectroscopy and Keck I HIRES data for OB 10-64. A non- local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) model atmosphere and abundance analysis for OB 10-64 is presented, indicating that this star has similar photospheric CNO, Mg and Si abundances to solar neighbourhood massive stars. A wind analysis of this early B-type supergiant reveals a mass-loss rate of (M)over dot = 1.6 x 10(-6) M-circle dot yr(-1), and v(infinity) = 1650 km s(-1). The corresponding wind momentum is in good agreement with the wind momentum-luminosity relationship found for Galactic early-B supergiants. Observations of OB 10-WRI are analysed using a non-LTE, line-blanketed code, to reveal approximate stellar parameters of log L/L-circle dot similar to 5.7, T-* - 75 kK, v(infinity) similar to 3000 km s(-1), (M)over dot/(M-circle dot yr(-1)) similar to 10(-4.3) adopting a clumped wind with a filling factor of 10 per cent. Quantitative comparisons are made with the Galactic WC6 star HD 92809 (WR23) revealing that OB 10-WR1 is 0.4 dex more luminous, though it has a much lower C/He ratio (similar to0.1 versus 0.3 for HD 92809). Our study represents the first detailed, chemical model atmosphere analysis for either a B-type supergiant or a Wolf- Rayet (WR) star in Andromeda, and shows the potential of how such studies can provide new information on the chemical evolution of galaxies and the evolution of massive stars in the local Universe.

Chemical evolution of protoplanetary disks - the effects of viscous accretion, turbulent mixing and disk winds

We calculate the chemical evolution of protoplanetary disks considering radial viscous accretion, vertical turbulent mixing, and vertical disk winds. We study the effects on the disk chemical structure when different models for the formation of molecular hydrogen on dust grains are adopted. Our gas-phase chemistry is extracted from the UMIST Database for Astrochemistry (Rate06) to which we have added detailed gas-grain interactions. We use our chemical model results to generate synthetic near- and mid-infrared local thermodynamic equilibrium line emission spectra and compare these with recent Spitzer observations. Our results show that if H2 formation on warm grains is taken into consideration, the H2O and OH abundances in the disk surface increase significantly. We find that the radial accretion flow strongly influences the molecular abundances, with those in the cold midplane layers particularly affected. On the other hand, we show that diffusive turbulent mixing affects the disk chemistry in the warm molecular layers, influencing the line emission from the disk and subsequently improving agreement with observations. We find that NH3, CH3OH, C2H2, and sulfur-containing species are greatly enhanced by the inclusion of turbulent mixing. We demonstrate that disk winds potentially affect the disk chemistry and the resulting molecular line emission in a manner similar to that found when mixing is included.

Interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric radiocarbon reveals natural variability of Southern Ocean winds

Tree ring Delta C-14 data (Reimer et al., 2004; McCormac et al., 2004) indicate that atmospheric Delta C-14 varied on multi-decadal to centennial timescales, in both hemispheres, over the period between AD 950 and 1830. The Northern and Southern Hemispheric Delta C-14 records display similar variability, but from the data alone is it not clear whether these variations are driven by the production of C-14 in the stratosphere (Stuiver and Quay, 1980) or by perturbations to exchanges between carbon reservoirs (Siegenthaler et al., 1980). As the sea-air flux of (CO2)-C-14 has a clear maximum in the open ocean regions of the Southern Ocean, relatively modest perturbations to the winds over this region drive significant perturbations to the interhemispheric gradient. In this study, model simulations are used to show that Southern Ocean winds are likely a main driver of the observed variability in the interhemispheric gradient over AD 950-1830, and further, that this variability may be larger than the Southern Ocean wind trends that have been reported for recent decades (notably 1980-2004). This interpretation also implies that there may have been a significant weakening of the winds over the Southern Ocean within a few decades of AD 1375, associated with the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. The driving forces that could have produced such a shift in the winds at the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Little Ice Age transition remain unknown. Our process-focused suite of perturbation experiments with models raises the possibility that the current generation of coupled climate and earth system models may underestimate the natural background multi-decadal- to centennial-timescale variations in the winds over the Southern Ocean.

Two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations of H i line formation in massive young stellar object disc winds

Massive young stellar objects (YSOs) are powerful infrared Hi line emitters. It has been suggested that these lines form in an outflow from a disc surrounding the YSO. Here, new two-dimensional Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations are described which test this hypothesis. Infrared spectra are synthesized for a YSO disc wind model based on earlier hydrodynamical calculations. The model spectra are in qualitative agreement with the observed spectra from massive YSOs, and therefore provide support for a disc wind explanation for the Hi lines. However, there are some significant differences: the models tend to overpredict the Bra/Br? ratio of equivalent widths and produce line profiles which are slightly too broad and, in contrast to typical observations, are double-peaked. The interpretation of these differences within the context of the disc wind picture and suggestions for their resolution via modifications to the assumed disc and outflow structure are discussed. © 2005 RAS.

A Study of Tower Shadow Effect on Fixed-Speed Wind Turbines

This paper studies the impact of tower shadow effect on the power output of a fixed-speed wind farm. A data acquisition unit was placed at a wind farm in Northern Ireland which consists of ten fixed-speed wind turbines. The recording equipment logged the wind farmpsilas electrical data, which was time stamped using the global positioning network. Video footage of the wind farm was recorded and from it the blade angle of each turbine was determined with respect to time. Using the blade angle data and the wind farmpsilas power output, studies where performed to ascertain the extent of tower shadow effect on power fluctuation. This paper presents evidence that suggests that tower shadow effect has a significant impact on power fluctuation and that this effect is increased due to the synchronising of turbine blades around the tower region.

Line-driven Disk Winds in Activ Galactic Nuclei: The Critical Importance of Ionization and Radiative Transfer

Accretion disk winds are thought to produce many of the characteristic features seen in the spectra of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and quasi-stellar objects (QSOs). These outflows also represent a natural form of feedback between the central supermassive black hole and its host galaxy. The mechanism for driving this mass loss remains unknown, although radiation pressure mediated by spectral lines is a leading candidate. Here, we calculate the ionization state of, and emergent spectra for, the hydrodynamic simulation of a line-driven disk wind previously presented by Proga & Kallman. To achieve this, we carry out a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation of the radiative transfer through, and energy exchange within, the predicted outflow. We find that the wind is much more ionized than originally estimated. This is in part because it is much more difficult to shield any wind regions effectively when the outflow itself is allowed to reprocess and redirect ionizing photons. As a result, the calculated spectrum that would be observed from this particular outflow solution would not contain the ultraviolet spectral lines that are observed in many AGN/QSOs. Furthermore, the wind is so highly ionized that line driving would not actually be efficient. This does not necessarily mean that line-driven winds are not viable. However, our work does illustrate that in order to arrive at a self-consistent model of line-driven disk winds in AGN/QSO, it will be critical to include a more detailed treatment of radiative transfer and ionization in the next generation of hydrodynamic simulations.

Rough Waters, Dark Shadows and Cross-Cutting Winds:the impact of European Union enlargement on Turkey’s EU accession negotiations

For a multiplicity of socio-economic, geo-political, strategic and identity-based reasons, Turkey’s progress towards EU membership is often treated as a sui generis case. Yet although Turkey’s accession negotiations with the European Union (EU) are essentially a bilateral – and often stormy – affair, they take place within a wider and dynamic process of enlargement in which not only can the gloomy – sometimes dark – shadows of past and prospective enlargements be clearly detected, but so too can the often chill winds from ongoing, parallel negotiations with other candidates. How the EU negotiates accession and what it expects from candidates has continued to evolve since the EU began drawing up its framework for negotiations with Turkey ten years ago. This paper charts this evolution by first identifying changes in the light of Croatia’s negotiating experience, the ‘lessons learnt’ by the EU in meeting the challenges of Bulgarian and Romanian accession, the EU’s handling of Iceland’s membership bid and accession negotiations, and the revised approach to negotiating accession evident in the more recent frameworks for accession negotiations with Montenegro and Serbia. The paper then explores the extent to which these changes have impacted on the approach the EU has adopted in framing and progressing accession negotiations with Turkey. In doing so, it questions both the consistency with which the EU’s negotiates accession and the extent to which Turkey’s progress towards EU membership is conditioned by the broader dynamics of EU enlargement as opposed to simply the dynamics within EU-Turkey relations and domestic Turkish reform efforts.