How does complex adaptive system theory inform innovation in complex project based organisations?

Innovation enables organisations to endure by responding to emergence and to improve efficiency. Innovation in a complex organisation can be difficult due to complexities contributing to slow decision-making. Complex projects fail due to an inability to respond to emergence which consumes finances and impacts on resources and organisational success. Therefore, for complex organisations to improve on performance and resilience, it would be advantageous to understand how to improve the management of innovation and thus, the ability to respond to emergence. The benefits to managers are an increase in the number of successful projects and improved productivity. This study will explore innovation management in a complex project based organisation. The contribution to the academic literature will be an in-depth, qualitative exploration of innovation in a complex project based organisation using a comparative case study approach.

R-parameter: A local truncation error based adaptive framework for finite volume compressible flow solvers

A residual-based strategy to estimate the local truncation error in a finite volume framework for steady compressible flows is proposed. This estimator, referred to as the -parameter, is derived from the imbalance arising from the use of an exact operator on the numerical solution for conservation laws. The behaviour of the residual estimator for linear and non-linear hyperbolic problems is systematically analysed. The relationship of the residual to the global error is also studied. The -parameter is used to derive a target length scale and consequently devise a suitable criterion for refinement/derefinement. This strategy, devoid of any user-defined parameters, is validated using two standard test cases involving smooth flows. A hybrid adaptive strategy based on both the error indicators and the -parameter, for flows involving shocks is also developed. Numerical studies on several compressible flow cases show that the adaptive algorithm performs excellently well in both two and three dimensions.

Estimation of cosmological parameters using adaptive importance sampling

We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to considerably reduce the wall-clock time required for sampling, along with providing other benefits. To assess the performance of the approach for cosmological problems, we use simulated and actual data consisting of CMB anisotropies, supernovae of type Ia, and weak cosmological lensing, and provide a comparison of results to those obtained using state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). For both types of data sets, we find comparable parameter estimates for PMC and MCMC, with the advantage of a significantly lower wall-clock time for PMC. In the case of WMAP5 data, for example, the wall-clock time scale reduces from days for MCMC to hours using PMC on a cluster of processors. Other benefits of the PMC approach, along with potential difficulties in using the approach, are analyzed and discussed.

Adaptive frequency scaled wavelet packet decomposition for frog call classification

Environmental changes have put great pressure on biological systems leading to the rapid decline of biodiversity. To monitor this change and protect biodiversity, animal vocalizations have been widely explored by the aid of deploying acoustic sensors in the field. Consequently, large volumes of acoustic data are collected. However, traditional manual methods that require ecologists to physically visit sites to collect biodiversity data are both costly and time consuming. Therefore it is essential to develop new semi-automated and automated methods to identify species in automated audio recordings. In this study, a novel feature extraction method based on wavelet packet decomposition is proposed for frog call classification. After syllable segmentation, the advertisement call of each frog syllable is represented by a spectral peak track, from which track duration, dominant frequency and oscillation rate are calculated. Then, a k-means clustering algorithm is applied to the dominant frequency, and the centroids of clustering results are used to generate the frequency scale for wavelet packet decomposition (WPD). Next, a new feature set named adaptive frequency scaled wavelet packet decomposition sub-band cepstral coefficients is extracted by performing WPD on the windowed frog calls. Furthermore, the statistics of all feature vectors over each windowed signal are calculated for producing the final feature set. Finally, two well-known classifiers, a k-nearest neighbour classifier and a support vector machine classifier, are used for classification. In our experiments, we use two different datasets from Queensland, Australia (18 frog species from commercial recordings and field recordings of 8 frog species from James Cook University recordings). The weighted classification accuracy with our proposed method is 99.5% and 97.4% for 18 frog species and 8 frog species respectively, which outperforms all other comparable methods.

Single network adaptive critic design for power system stabilisers

The recently developed single network adaptive critic (SNAC) design has been used in this study to design a power system stabiliser (PSS) for enhancing the small-signal stability of power systems over a wide range of operating conditions. PSS design is formulated as a discrete non-linear quadratic regulator problem. SNAC is then used to solve the resulting discrete-time optimal control problem. SNAC uses only a single critic neural network instead of the action-critic dual network architecture of typical adaptive critic designs. SNAC eliminates the iterative training loops between the action and critic networks and greatly simplifies the training procedure. The performance of the proposed PSS has been tested on a single machine infinite bus test system for various system and loading conditions. The proposed stabiliser, which is relatively easier to synthesise, consistently outperformed stabilisers based on conventional lead-lag and linear quadratic regulator designs.

Molecular Breeding for Complex Adaptive Traits: How Integrating Crop Ecophysiology and Modelling Can Enhance Efficiency

Progress in crop improvement is limited by the ability to identify favourable combinations of genotypes (G) and management practices (M) in relevant target environments (E) given the resources available to search among the myriad of possible combinations. To underpin yield advance we require prediction of phenotype based on genotype. In plant breeding, traditional phenotypic selection methods have involved measuring phenotypic performance of large segregating populations in multi-environment trials and applying rigorous statistical procedures based on quantitative genetic theory to identify superior individuals. Recent developments in the ability to inexpensively and densely map/sequence genomes have facilitated a shift from the level of the individual (genotype) to the level of the genomic region. Molecular breeding strategies using genome wide prediction and genomic selection approaches have developed rapidly. However, their applicability to complex traits remains constrained by gene-gene and gene-environment interactions, which restrict the predictive power of associations of genomic regions with phenotypic responses. Here it is argued that crop ecophysiology and functional whole plant modelling can provide an effective link between molecular and organism scales and enhance molecular breeding by adding value to genetic prediction approaches. A physiological framework that facilitates dissection and modelling of complex traits can inform phenotyping methods for marker/gene detection and underpin prediction of likely phenotypic consequences of trait and genetic variation in target environments. This approach holds considerable promise for more effectively linking genotype to phenotype for complex adaptive traits. Specific examples focused on drought adaptation are presented to highlight the concepts.

Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

Phylogeography and Adaptive Divergence of Three-spined Stickleback Populations

Genetic studies on phylogeography and adaptive divergence in Northern Hemisphere fish species such as three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) provide an excellent opportunity to investigate genetic mechanisms underlying population differentiation. According to the theory, the process of population differentiation results from a complex interplay between random and deterministic processes as well historical factors. The main scope in this thesis was to study how historical factors like the Pleistocene ice ages have shaped the patterns molecular diversity in three-spined stickleback populations in Europe and how this information could be utilized in the conservation genetic context. Furthermore, identifying footprints of natural selection at the DNA level might be used in identifying genes involved in evolutionary change. Overall, the results from phylogeographic studies indicate that the three-spined stickleback has colonized the Atlantic basin relatively recently but constitutes three major evolutionary lineages in Europe. In addition, the colonization of freshwater appears to result from multiple and independent invasions by the marine conspecifics. Molecular data together with morphology suggest that the most divergent freshwater populations are located in the Balkan Peninsula and these populations deserve a special conservation genetic status without warranting further taxonomical classification. In order to investigate the adaptive divergence in Fennoscandian three-spined stickleback populations several approaches were used. First, sequence variability in the Eda-gene, coding for the number of lateral plates, was concordant with the previously observed global pattern. Full plated allele is in high frequencies among marine populations whereas low plated allele dominates in the freshwater populations. Second, a microsatellite based genome scan identified both indications of balancing and directional selection in the three-spined stickleback genome, i.e. loci with unusually similar or unusually different allele frequencies over populations. The directionally selected loci were mainly associated with the adaptation to freshwater. A follow up study conducting a more detailed analysis in a chromosome region containing a putatively selected gene locus identified a fairly large genomic region affected by natural selection. However, this region contained several gene predictions, all of which might be the actual target of natural selection. All in all, the phylogeographic and adaptive divergence studies indicate that most of the genetic divergence has occurred in the freshwater populations whereas the marine populations have remained relatively uniform.

trans gene regulation in adaptive evolution: A genetic algorithm model

This is a continuation of earlier studies on the evolution of infinite populations of haploid genotypes within a genetic algorithm framework. We had previously explored the evolutionary consequences of the existence of indeterminate—“plastic”—loci, where a plastic locus had a finite probability in each generation of functioning (being switched “on”) or not functioning (being switched “off”). The relative probabilities of the two outcomes were assigned on a stochastic basis. The present paper examines what happens when the transition probabilities are biased by the presence of regulatory genes. We find that under certain conditions regulatory genes can improve the adaptation of the population and speed up the rate of evolution (on occasion at the cost of lowering the degree of adaptation). Also, the existence of regulatory loci potentiates selection in favour of plasticity. There is a synergistic effect of regulatory genes on plastic alleles: the frequency of such alleles increases when regulatory loci are present. Thus, phenotypic selection alone can be a potentiating factor in a favour of better adaptation.

A Control Strategy for Reference Wave Adaptive Current Generation

Speed control of ac motors requires variable frequency, variable current, or variable voltage supply. Variable frequency supply can be obtained directly from a fixed frequency supply by using a frequency converter or from a dc source using inverters. In this paper a control technique for reference wave adaptive-current generation by modulating the inverter voltage is explained. Extension of this technique for three-phase induction-motor speed control is briefly explained. The oscillograms of the current waveforms obtained from the experimental setup are also shown.

Assimilation of remote sensing and hydrological data using adaptive filtering techniques for watershed modelling

The knowledge of hydrological variables (e. g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration) are of pronounced importance in various applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management. These applications require the accurate prediction of hydrological variables spatially and temporally in watershed/basin. Though hydrological models can simulate these variables at desired resolution (spatial and temporal), often they are validated against the variables, which are either sparse in resolution (e. g. soil moisture) or averaged over large regions (e. g. runoff). A combination of the distributed hydrological model (DHM) and remote sensing (RS) has the potential to improve resolution. Data assimilation schemes can optimally combine DHM and RS. Retrieval of hydrological variables (e. g. soil moisture) from remote sensing and assimilating it in hydrological model requires validation of algorithms using field studies. Here we present a review of methodologies developed to assimilate RS in DHM and demonstrate the application for soil moisture in a small experimental watershed in south India.

An adaptive drug delivery design using neural networks for effective treatment of infectious diseases: A simulation study

An adaptive drug delivery design is presented in this paper using neural networks for effective treatment of infectious diseases. The generic mathematical model used describes the coupled evolution of concentration of pathogens, plasma cells, antibodies and a numerical value that indicates the relative characteristic of a damaged organ due to the disease under the influence of external drugs. From a system theoretic point of view, the external drugs can be interpreted as control inputs, which can be designed based on control theoretic concepts. In this study, assuming a set of nominal parameters in the mathematical model, first a nonlinear controller (drug administration) is designed based on the principle of dynamic inversion. This nominal drug administration plan was found to be effective in curing "nominal model patients" (patients whose immunological dynamics conform to the mathematical model used for the control design exactly. However, it was found to be ineffective in curing "realistic model patients" (patients whose immunological dynamics may have off-nominal parameter values and possibly unwanted inputs) in general. Hence, to make the drug delivery dosage design more effective for realistic model patients, a model-following adaptive control design is carried out next by taking the help of neural networks, that are trained online. Simulation studies indicate that the adaptive controller proposed in this paper holds promise in killing the invading pathogens and healing the damaged organ even in the presence of parameter uncertainties and continued pathogen attack. Note that the computational requirements for computing the control are very minimal and all associated computations (including the training of neural networks) can be carried out online. However it assumes that the required diagnosis process can be carried out at a sufficient faster rate so that all the states are available for control computation.

An optimal dynamic inversion-based neuro-adaptive approach for treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia

Combining the advanced techniques of optimal dynamic inversion and model-following neuro-adaptive control design, an innovative technique is presented to design an automatic drug administration strategy for effective treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). A recently developed nonlinear mathematical model for cell dynamics is used to design the controller (medication dosage). First, a nominal controller is designed based on the principle of optimal dynamic inversion. This controller can treat the nominal model patients (patients who can be described by the mathematical model used here with the nominal parameter values) effectively. However, since the system parameters for a realistic model patient can be different from that of the nominal model patients, simulation studies for such patients indicate that the nominal controller is either inefficient or, worse, ineffective; i.e. the trajectory of the number of cancer cells either shows non-satisfactory transient behavior or it grows in an unstable manner. Hence, to make the drug dosage history more realistic and patient-specific, a model-following neuro-adaptive controller is augmented to the nominal controller. In this adaptive approach, a neural network trained online facilitates a new adaptive controller. The training process of the neural network is based on Lyapunov stability theory, which guarantees both stability of the cancer cell dynamics as well as boundedness of the network weights. From simulation studies, this adaptive control design approach is found to be very effective to treat the CML disease for realistic patients. Sufficient generality is retained in the mathematical developments so that the technique can be applied to other similar nonlinear control design problems as well.