Comparing copepod time-series in the north of Spain: Spatial autocorrelation of community composition

Four time-series of copepod species biomass in the north of Spain were contrasted to demonstrate spatial autocorrelation of local communities and their responses to short-term local and regional variability in oceanographic conditions. The series represented coastal and oceanic environments along a marked gradient of influence of seasonal upwelling from Galicia to the Mar Cantábrico (S Bay of Biscay), and each one included at least 10 years of continuous data collected at monthly frequency. Community composition (i.e. species number and diversity) was very consistent through the region, but local variations in the presence of new species and the relative proportions of common species allowed for the characterisation of the response to the environment at each site. Small-sized species were more frequent near the coast. A few species, however, captured the main patterns of variability in all series. Calanus helgolandicus and Acartia (mainly Acartia clausi) were generally the main contributors to total biomass, while other species as Paracalanus parvus and Clausocalanus spp. were important only at some locations. Most copepod indices were positively correlated with upwelling, either considering the whole community (biomass, species richness and diversity) or individual species, but only in the coastal series analysed since 1991. Copepods in the nearby ocean, however, showed negative correlations with upwelling in the period 1960–1986. The effects of upwelling may have been modulated by local factors, as showed by the increases in biomass, number of species and diversity in associations with increases in sea surface temperature in Galicia, while in the Mar Cantábrico only the warming-tolerant species increased and those typical of upwelling decreased. Density stratification of the water column was associated with decreases in total copepod biomass in Galicia, while it favoured the increase in species richness in the Mar Cantábrico. Nearly all significant responses of copepods to environmental variability were delayed by up to 5 months, showing the importance of considering time-lags in the analysis of temporal responses of zooplankton.

Long-Term Retrospective Analysis of Mackerel Spawning in the North Sea: A New Time Series and Modeling Approach to CPR Data

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels. Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock

A comparison of two zooplankton time series data collected in the Gulf of Maine

Interannual and seasonal trends of zooplankton abundance and species composition were compared between the Bongo net and Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) time series in the Gulf of Maine. Data from 5799 Bongo and 3118 CPR samples were compared from the years 1978–2006. The two programs use different sampling methods, with the Bongo time series composed of bimonthly vertically integrated samples from locations throughout the region, while the CPR was towed monthly at 10 m depth on a transect that bisects the region. It was found that there was a significant correlation between the interannual (r = 0.67, P < 0.01) and seasonal (r = 0.95, P < 0.01) variability of total zooplankton counts. Abundance rankings of individual taxa were highly correlated and temporal trends of dominant copepods were similar between samplers. Multivariate analysis also showed that both time series equally detected major shifts in community structure through time. However, absolute abundance levels were higher in the Bongo and temporal patterns for many of the less abundant taxa groups were not similar between the two devices. The different mesh sizes of the samplers probably caused some of the discrepancies; but diel migration patterns, damage to soft bodied animals and avoidance of the small CPR aperture by some taxa likely contributed to the catch differences between the two devices. Nonetheless, Bongo data presented here confirm the previously published patterns found in the CPR data set, and both show that the abundance increase of the 1990s has been followed by average to below average levels from 2002 to 06.

Comparisons of zooplankton time series

Evidence for climate-correlated low frequency variability of various components of marine ecosystems has accumulated rapidly over the past 2 decades. There has also been a growing recognition that society needs to learn how the fluctuations of these various components are linked, and to predict the likely amplitude and steepness of future changes. Demographic characteristics of marine zooplankton make them especially suitable for examining variability of marine ecosystems at interannual to decadal time scales. Their life cycle duration is short enough that there is little carryover of population membership from year to year, but long enough that variability can be tracked with monthly-to-seasonal sampling. Because zooplankton are rarely fished, comparative analysis of changes in their abundance can greatly enhance our ability to evaluate the importance of and interaction between physical environment, food web, and fishery harvest as causal mechanisms driving ecosystem level changes. A number of valuable within-region analyses of zooplankton time series have been published in the past decade, covering a variety of modes of variability including changes in total biomass, changes in size structure and species composition, changes in spatial distribution, and changes in seasonal timing. But because most zooplankton time series are relatively short compared to the time scales of interest, the statistical power of local analyses is often low, and between-region and between-variable comparisons are also needed. In this paper, we review the results of recent within- and between-region analyses, and suggest some priorities for future work.

Zooplankton associations in a Mediterranean long-term time-series

Coastal zooplankton have been investigated since 1984 at a Long Term Ecological Research station MC (LTER-MC) in the inner Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea, Western Mediterranean). The sampling site, located between the littoral and the open sea systems, has very active hydrography that affects plankton communities. The present work was aimed at establishing whether, in such a dynamic and variable environment, species associations and homogeneous periods could be identified as characteristic and stable features of the mesozooplankton over the period 1984–2006. Hierarchical clustering was applied to assess species associations based on a matrix of similarities between species (R-mode), and homogeneous periods based on a matrix of similarities between observations (Q-mode). The Indicator Value index [IndVal, Dufrene and Legendre (1997) Species assemblages and indicator species: the need for a flexible asymmetrical approach. Ecol. Monogr., 67, 345–366] was calculated to identify species characterizing each period. Five taxonomic groups with well-defined composition and abundance were identified as robust associations that likely reflect different modes of community functioning. The temporal course of these associations was largely shaped by strong seasonal forcing comprising both physical and biological (e.g. trophic) signals. These associations persisted over the long term, thus indicating some stable characters in the Naples zooplankton time-series, providing evidence of resilience in communities in highly variable coastal conditions.

Abundance of phytoplankton, heterotrophic nanoflagellates and bacteria through the water column at time series station L4 in the Western English Channel, 2007-2013

short doi:10/rf8 full doi:10.5285/f014becf-d6d6-3bb9-e044-000b5de50f38

Oithona similislikes it cool: evidence from two long-term time series

We compare the long-term and seasonal patterns of abundance and phenology of the cyclopoid copepod Oithona similis at the L4 site (1988–2013) in the North Atlantic and at the LTER-MC site (1984–2013) in the Mediterranean Sea to investigate whether high temperature limits the occurrence of this species with latitudinal cline. The two sites are well suited to testing this hypothesis as they are characterized by similar chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a) but different temperature [sea surface temperature (SST)]. The abundance of O. similis at L4 was ∼10 times higher than at LTER-MC. Moreover, this species had several peaks of abundance during the year at L4 but a single peak in spring at LTER-MC. The main mode of temporal variability in abundance was seasonal at both sites. The abundance of O. similis was negatively correlated with SST only at LTER-MC, whereas it was positively correlated with Chl a at both sites. Oithona similis had a temperature optimum between 15 and 20°C reaching maximum abundance at ∼16.5°C at LTER-MC, but showed no Chl a optimum at either site. We conclude that the abundance of O. similis increases with prey availability up to 16.5°C and that temperature >20°C represents the main limiting factor for population persistence.

How does Calanus helgolandicus maintain its population in a variable environment? Analysis of a 25-year time series from the English Channel

Calanus helgolandicus is a key copepod of the NE Atlantic and fringing shelves, with a distribution that is expanding northwards with oceanic warming. The Plymouth L4 site has warmed over the past 25-years, and experiences large variations in the timing and availability of food for C. helgolandicus. Here we examine the degree to which these changes translate into variation in reproductive output and subsequently C. helgolandicus population size. Egg production rates (eggs female−1 day−1) were maximal in the spring to early-summer period of diatom blooms and high ciliate abundance, rather than during the equally large autumn blooms of autotrophic dinoflagellates. Egg hatch success was lower in spring however, with a greater proportion of naupliar deformities then also. Both the timing and the mean summer abundance of C. helgolandicus (CI–CVI) reflected those of spring total reproductive output. However this relationship was driven by inter-annual variability in female abundance and not that of egg production per female, which ranged only two-fold. Winter abundance of C. helgolandicus at L4 was much more variable than abundance in other seasons, and reflected conditions from the previous growing season. However, these low winter abundances had no clear carry-over signal to the following season’s population size. Overall, the C. helgolandicus population appears to be surprisingly resilient at this dynamic, inshore site, showing no long-term phenology shift and only a four-fold variation in mean abundance between years. This dampening effect may reflect a series of mortality sources, associated with the timing of stratification in the early part of the season, likely affecting egg sinking and loss, plus intense, density-dependent mortality of early stages in mid-summer likely through predation.

Error sensitive historical GIS: Identifying areal interpolation errors in time series data

Historical GIS has the potential to re-invigorate our use of statistics from historical censuses and related sources. In particular, areal interpolation can be used to create long-run time-series of spatially detailed data that will enable us to enhance significantly our understanding of geographical change over periods of a century or more. The difficulty with areal interpolation, however, is that the data that it generates are estimates which will inevitably contain some error. This paper describes a technique that allows the automated identification of possible errors at the level of the individual data values.

Modelling the impact of antibiotic use and infection control practices on the incidence of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a time-series analysis

Objectives: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major nosocomial pathogen worldwide. A wide range of factors have been suggested to influence the spread of MRSA. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of antimicrobial drug use and infection control practices on nosocomial MRSA incidence in a 426-bed general teaching hospital in Northern Ireland.

Methods: The present research involved the retrospective collection of monthly data on the usage of antibiotics and on infection control practices within the hospital over a 5 year period (January 2000–December 2004). A multivariate ARIMA (time-series analysis) model was built to relate MRSA incidence with antibiotic use and infection control practices.

Results: Analysis of the 5 year data set showed that temporal variations in MRSA incidence followed temporal variations in the use of fluoroquinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, macrolides and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (coefficients = 0.005, 0.03, 0.002 and 0.003, respectively, with various time lags). Temporal relationships were also observed between MRSA incidence and infection control practices, i.e. the number of patients actively screened for MRSA (coefficient = -0.007), the use of alcohol-impregnated wipes (coefficient = -0.0003) and the bulk orders of alcohol-based handrub (coefficients = -0.04 and -0.08), with increased infection control activity being associated with decreased MRSA incidence, and between MRSA incidence and the number of new patients admitted with MRSA (coefficient = 0.22). The model explained 78.4% of the variance in the monthly incidence of MRSA.

Conclusions: The results of this study confirm the value of infection control policies as well as suggest the usefulness of restricting the use of certain antimicrobial classes to control MRSA.