Agrarian revolution in Central America : a comparison of Nicaragua and Honduras using Jeffery Paige's theory of Agrarian revolution

ABSTRACT In 1979 Nicaragua, under the Sandinistas, experienced a genuine, socialist, full scale, agrarian revolution. This thesis examines whether Jeffery Paige's theory of agrarian revolutions would have been successful in predicting this revolution and ln predicting non-revolution in the neighboring country of Honduras. The thesis begins by setting Paige's theory in the tradition of radical theories of revolution. It then derives four propositions from Paige's theory which suggest the patterns of export crops, land tenure changes and class configurations which are necessary for an agrarian and socialist revolution. These propositions are tested against evidence from the twentieth century histories of economic, social and political change in Nicaragua and Honduras. The thesis concludes that Paige's theory does help to explain the occurrence of agrarian revolution in Nicaragua and non-revolution in Honduras. A fifth proposition derived from Paige's theory proved less useful in explaining the specific areas within Nicaragua that were most receptive to Sandinista revolutionary activity.

Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions

In this paper, we propose exact inference procedures for asset pricing models that can be formulated in the framework of a multivariate linear regression (CAPM), allowing for stable error distributions. The normality assumption on the distribution of stock returns is usually rejected in empirical studies, due to excess kurtosis and asymmetry. To model such data, we propose a comprehensive statistical approach which allows for alternative - possibly asymmetric - heavy tailed distributions without the use of large-sample approximations. The methods suggested are based on Monte Carlo test techniques. Goodness-of-fit tests are formally incorporated to ensure that the error distributions considered are empirically sustainable, from which exact confidence sets for the unknown tail area and asymmetry parameters of the stable error distribution are derived. Tests for the efficiency of the market portfolio (zero intercepts) which explicitly allow for the presence of (unknown) nuisance parameter in the stable error distribution are derived. The methods proposed are applied to monthly returns on 12 portfolios of the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1926-1995 (5 year subperiods). We find that stable possibly skewed distributions provide statistically significant improvement in goodness-of-fit and lead to fewer rejections of the efficiency hypothesis.

Toward a Political Theory of Environmental Policy.

This paper makes some steps toward a formal political economy of environmental policy. Economists' quasi-unanimous preferences for sophisticated incentive regulation is reconsidered. First, we recast the question of instrument choice in the general mechanism literature and provide an incomplete contract approach to political economy. Then, in various settings, we show why constitutional constraints on the instruments of environmental policy may be desirable, even though they appear inefficient from a purely standard economic viewpoint.

A critique of Nancy Fraser's theory of social justice : self-determination and the Mohawks of Kahnawá:ke

La présente étude se concentre sur le travail de Nancy Fraser sur la justice sociale, lequel a suscité beaucoup d’intérêt dans la littérature au cours des dernières années. La reconnaissance et la redistribution sont les deux piliers originaux de son approche: les désavantages dont souffrent les gens dus au dénigrement culturel ou à la privation économique. Ces deux concepts servent à diagnostiquer et fournir le soutien moral aux multiples luttes que les victimes d’injustice entreprennent avec l’objectif d’établir une participation plus égalitaire à la société. Cependant, que peut-elle dire cette approche des groupes qui sont marginalisés et cherchent l’autogouvernance (ou la séparation même) plutôt que l’intégration dans la société? Le travail de Fraser manifeste une résistance envers les droits du groupe, et un silence quant à l’autodétermination. Mon intervention prend comme objectif d’inclure ces formes d’injustice dans son approche, la rendant plus sensible aux dynamiques des groupes et capable de répondre à leurs revendications trop souvent négligées sous prétexte de l’égalité. La question est, l’égalité de qui?

Incentives and Principles for Individuals in Rawls’s Theory of Justice

Philippe van Parijs (2003) has argued that an egalitarian ethos cannot be part of a post- Political Liberalism Rawlsian view of justice, because the demands of political justice are confined to principles for institutions of the basic structure alone. This paper argues, by contrast, that certain principles for individual conduct—including a principle requiring relatively advantaged individuals to sometimes make their economic choices with the aim of maximising the prospects of the least advantaged—are an integral part of a Rawlsian political conception of justice. It concludes that incentive payments will have a clearly limited role in a Rawlsian theory of justice.

On the design of customized risk measures in insurance, the problem of capital allocation and the theory of fluctuations for Lévy processes

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions quelques problèmes fondamentaux en mathématiques financières et actuarielles, ainsi que leurs applications. Cette thèse est constituée de trois contributions portant principalement sur la théorie de la mesure de risques, le problème de l’allocation du capital et la théorie des fluctuations. Dans le chapitre 2, nous construisons de nouvelles mesures de risque cohérentes et étudions l’allocation de capital dans le cadre de la théorie des risques collectifs. Pour ce faire, nous introduisons la famille des "mesures de risque entropique cumulatifs" (Cumulative Entropic Risk Measures). Le chapitre 3 étudie le problème du portefeuille optimal pour le Entropic Value at Risk dans le cas où les rendements sont modélisés par un processus de diffusion à sauts (Jump-Diffusion). Dans le chapitre 4, nous généralisons la notion de "statistiques naturelles de risque" (natural risk statistics) au cadre multivarié. Cette extension non-triviale produit des mesures de risque multivariées construites à partir des données financiéres et de données d’assurance. Le chapitre 5 introduit les concepts de "drawdown" et de la "vitesse d’épuisement" (speed of depletion) dans la théorie de la ruine. Nous étudions ces concepts pour des modeles de risque décrits par une famille de processus de Lévy spectrallement négatifs.

Analysis of some Stochastic models in inventories and Queues

The thesis entitled Analysis of Some Stochastic Models in Inventories and Queues. This thesis is devoted to the study of some stochastic models in Inventories and Queues which are physically realizable, though complex. It contains a detailed analysis of the basic stochastic processes underlying these models. In this thesis, (s,S) inventory systems with nonidentically distributed interarrival demand times and random lead times, state dependent demands, varying ordering levels and perishable commodities with exponential life times have been studied. The queueing system of the type Ek/Ga,b/l with server vacations, service systems with single and batch services, queueing system with phase type arrival and service processes and finite capacity M/G/l queue when server going for vacation after serving a random number of customers are also analysed. The analogy between the queueing systems and inventory systems could be exploited in solving certain models. In vacation models, one important result is the stochastic decomposition property of the system size or waiting time. One can think of extending this to the transient case. In inventory theory, one can extend the present study to the case of multi-item, multi-echelon problems. The study of perishable inventory problem when the commodities have a general life time distribution would be a quite interesting problem. The analogy between the queueing systems and inventory systems could be exploited in solving certain models.

Theory of laser-induced ultrafast structural changes in solids

The present thesis is a contribution to the study of laser-solid interaction. Despite the numerous applications resulting from the recent use of laser technology, there is still a lack of satisfactory answers to theoretical questions regarding the mechanism leading to the structural changes induced by femtosecond lasers in materials. We provide here theoretical approaches for the description of the structural response of different solids (cerium, samarium sulfide, bismuth and germanium) to femtosecond laser excitation. Particular interest is given to the description of the effects of the laser pulse on the electronic systems and changes of the potential energy surface for the ions. Although the general approach of laser-excited solids remains the same, the potential energy surface which drives the structural changes is calculated with different theoretical models for each material. This is due to the difference of the electronic properties of the studied systems. We use the Falicov model combined with an hydrodynamic method to study photoinduced phase changes in cerium. The local density approximation (LDA) together with the Hubbard-type Hamiltonian (LDA+U) in the framework of density functional theory (DFT) is used to describe the structural properties of samarium sulfide. We parametrize the time-dependent potential energy surface (calculated using DFT+ LDA) of bismuth on which we perform quantum dynamical simulations to study the experimentally observed amplitude collapse and revival of coherent $A_{1g}$ phonons. On the basis of a time-dependent potential energy surface calculated from a non-orthogonal tight binding Hamiltonian, we perform molecular dynamics simulation to analyze the time evolution (coherent phonons, ultrafast nonthermal melting) of germanium under laser excitation. The thermodynamic equilibrium properties of germanium are also reported. With the obtained results we are able to give many clarifications and interpretations of experimental results and also make predictions.

Many-body theory of laser-induced ultrafast demagnetization and angular momentum transfer in ferromagnetic transition metals

An electronic theory is developed, which describes the ultrafast demagnetization in itinerant ferromagnets following the absorption of a femtosecond laser pulse. The present work intends to elucidate the microscopic physics of this ultrafast phenomenon by identifying its fundamental mechanisms. In particular, it aims to reveal the nature of the involved spin excitations and angular-momentum transfer between spin and lattice, which are still subjects of intensive debate. In the first preliminary part of the thesis the initial stage of the laser-induced demagnetization process is considered. In this stage the electronic system is highly excited by spin-conserving elementary excitations involved in the laser-pulse absorption, while the spin or magnon degrees of freedom remain very weakly excited. The role of electron-hole excitations on the stability of the magnetic order of one- and two-dimensional 3d transition metals (TMs) is investigated by using ab initio density-functional theory. The results show that the local magnetic moments are remarkably stable even at very high levels of local energy density and, therefore, indicate that these moments preserve their identity throughout the entire demagnetization process. In the second main part of the thesis a many-body theory is proposed, which takes into account these local magnetic moments and the local character of the involved spin excitations such as spin fluctuations from the very beginning. In this approach the relevant valence 3d and 4p electrons are described in terms of a multiband model Hamiltonian which includes Coulomb interactions, interatomic hybridizations, spin-orbit interactions, as well as the coupling to the time-dependent laser field on the same footing. An exact numerical time evolution is performed for small ferromagnetic TM clusters. The dynamical simulations show that after ultra-short laser pulse absorption the magnetization of these clusters decreases on a time scale of hundred femtoseconds. In particular, the results reproduce the experimentally observed laser-induced demagnetization in ferromagnets and demonstrate that this effect can be explained in terms of the following purely electronic non-adiabatic mechanism: First, on a time scale of 10–100 fs after laser excitation the spin-orbit coupling yields local angular-momentum transfer between the spins and the electron orbits, while subsequently the orbital angular momentum is very rapidly quenched in the lattice on the time scale of one femtosecond due to interatomic electron hoppings. In combination, these two processes result in a demagnetization within hundred or a few hundred femtoseconds after laser-pulse absorption.

A review and classification of the existing models of cyanobacteria

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting bloom occurrence in lakes and rivers. In this paper existing key models of cyanobacteria are reviewed, evaluated and classified. Two major groups emerge: deterministic mathematical and artificial neural network models. Mathematical models can be further subcategorized into those models concerned with impounded water bodies and those concerned with rivers. Most existing models focus on a single aspect such as the growth of transport mechanisms, but there are a few models which couple both.

Identifying and understanding factors influencing the uptake of new technologies on dairy farms in SW England using the theory of reasoned action

Whilst much is known of new technology adopters, little research has addressed the role of their attitudes in adoption decisions; particularly, for technologies with evident economic potential that have not been taken up by farmers. This paper presents recent research that has used a new approach which examines the role that adopters' attitudes play in identifying the drivers of and barriers to adoption. The study was concerned with technologies for livestock farming systems in SW England, specifically oestrus detection, nitrogen supply management, and, inclusion of white clover. The adoption behaviour is analysed using the social-psychology theory of reasoned action to identify factors that affect the adoption of technologies, which are confirmed using principal components analysis. The results presented here relate to the specific adoption behaviour regarding the Milk Development Council's recommended observation times for heat detection. The factors that affect the adoption of this technology are: cost effectiveness, improved detection and conception rates as the main drivers, whilst the threat to demean the personal knowledge and skills of a farmer in 'knowing' their cows is a barrier. This research shows clearly that promotion of a technology and transfer of knowledge for a farming system need to take account of the beliefs and attitudes of potential adopters. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overview of mathematical approaches used to model bacterial chemotaxis II: bacterial populations

We review the application of mathematical modeling to understanding the behavior of populations of chemotactic bacteria. The application of continuum mathematical models, in particular generalized Keller-Segel models, is discussed along with attempts to incorporate the microscale (individual) behavior on the macroscale, modeling the interaction between different species of bacteria, the interaction of bacteria with their environment, and methods used to obtain experimentally verified parameter values. We allude briefly to the role of modeling pattern formation in understanding collective behavior within bacterial populations. Various aspects of each model are discussed and areas for possible future research are postulated.

Past, present and future mathematical models for buildings (i)

This is the first of two articles presenting a detailed review of the historical evolution of mathematical models applied in the development of building technology, including conventional buildings and intelligent buildings. After presenting the technical differences between conventional and intelligent buildings, this article reviews the existing mathematical models, the abstract levels of these models, and their links to the literature for intelligent buildings. The advantages and limitations of the applied mathematical models are identified and the models are classified in terms of their application range and goal. We then describe how the early mathematical models, mainly physical models applied to conventional buildings, have faced new challenges for the design and management of intelligent buildings and led to the use of models which offer more flexibility to better cope with various uncertainties. In contrast with the early modelling techniques, model approaches adopted in neural networks, expert systems, fuzzy logic and genetic models provide a promising method to accommodate these complications as intelligent buildings now need integrated technologies which involve solving complex, multi-objective and integrated decision problems.

Past, present and future mathematical models for buildings (ii)

This article is the second part of a review of the historical evolution of mathematical models applied in the development of building technology. The first part described the current state of the art and contrasted various models with regard to the applications to conventional buildings and intelligent buildings. It concluded that mathematical techniques adopted in neural networks, expert systems, fuzzy logic and genetic models, that can be used to address model uncertainty, are well suited for modelling intelligent buildings. Despite the progress, the possible future development of intelligent buildings based on the current trends implies some potential limitations of these models. This paper attempts to uncover the fundamental limitations inherent in these models and provides some insights into future modelling directions, with special focus on the techniques of semiotics and chaos. Finally, by demonstrating an example of an intelligent building system with the mathematical models that have been developed for such a system, this review addresses the influences of mathematical models as a potential aid in developing intelligent buildings and perhaps even more advanced buildings for the future.