Terapia antirretroviral altamente eficaz para infecção pelo vírus da imunodeficiência humana aumenta a rigidez aórtica

FUNDAMENTO: Sabe-se que a terapia antirretroviral altamente potente para Aids reconhecida aumenta o risco cardiovascular, mas os efeitos dos agentes antirretrovirais de acordo com o gênero ainda são desconhecidos. OBJETIVO: O presente estudo avaliou o impacto do tratamento para o vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV) na rigidez aórtica de acordo com o gênero. MÉTODOS: Foram recrutados 28 pacientes com Aids submetidos à terapia antirretroviral altamente potente (HAART), 28 pacientes infectados pelo HIV virgens de tratamento, 44 pacientes com diabetes tipo 2, e 30 controles. A rigidez aórtica foi determinada pela medição da Velocidade da Onda de Pulso (VOP), utilizando um equipamento automático validado e não invasivo. RESULTADOS: Os resultados médios brutos da VOP (e intervalo de confiança de 95%) para participantes nos grupos terapia antirretroviral potente, HIV virgem de tratamento, diabéticos, e controles foram 9,77 m/s (9,17-10,36), 9,00 m/s (8,37-9,63), 9,90 m/s (9,32-10,49) e 9,28 m/s (8,61-9,95), respectivamente, para os homens (p de tendência = 0,14) e 9,61 m/s (8,56-10,66), 8,45 m/s (7,51-9,39), 9,83 (9,21-10,44) e 7,79 m/s (6,99-8,58), respectivamente, para as mulheres (p valor de tendência < 0,001). Análises post-hoc revelaram uma diferença significativa entre os valores médios de VOP no grupo com HAART e controles em mulheres (p < 0,01). Ajustes para as demais covariáveis potenciais, incluindo pressão arterial sistólica e diabetes, não alteraram esses resultados. Os achados indicam que o impacto do tratamento com HAART na rigidez aórtica foi amplificado nas mulheres com hipertensão, dislipidemia e síndrome metabólica. CONCLUSÃO: Agentes antirretrovirais potentes utilizados no tratamento da infecção pelo HIV aumentam a rigidez da aorta, especialmente em mulheres com maior risco cardiovascular.

Outcome of HIV-infected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a comparison with HIV negative controls

Background and rationale for the study. This study investigated whether human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection adversely affects the prognosis of patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).Thirty-four HIV-positive patients with chronic liver disease, consecutively diagnosed with HCC from 1998 to 2007 were one-to-one matched with 34 HIV negative controls for: sex, liver function (Child-Turcotte-Pugh class [CTP]), cancer stage (BCLC model) and, whenever possible, age, etiology of liver disease and modality of cancer diagnosis. Survival in the two groups and independent prognostic predictors were assessed. Results. Among HIV patients 88% were receiving HAART. HIV-RNA was undetectable in 65% of cases; median lymphocyte CD4+ count was 368.5/mmc. Etiology of liver disease was mostly related to HCV infection. CTP class was: A in 38%, B in 41%, C in 21% of cases. BCLC cancer stage was: early in 50%, intermediate in 23.5%, advanced in 5.9%, end-stage in 20.6% of cases. HCC treatments and death causes did not differ between the two groups. Median survival did not differ, being 16 months (95% CI: 6-26) in HIV positive and 23 months (95% CI: 5-41) in HIV negative patients (P=0.391). BCLC cancer stage and HCC treatment proved to be independent predictors of survival both in the whole population and in HIV patients. Conclusions. Survival of HIV infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy and diagnosed with HCC is similar to that of HIV negative patients bearing this tumor. Prognosis is determined by the cancer bulk and its treatment.

Metodi biomolecolari per il follow up dei pazienti HIV positivi

As proviral human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) DNA can replenish and revive viral infection upon attivation, its analysis, in addition to RNA viral load, could be considered a useful marker during the follow-up of infected individuals, to evaluate reservoir status, especially in HAART-treated patients when RNA viral load is undetectable by current techniques and the antiretroviral efficacy of new, more potent therapeutic regimens. Standardized methods for the measurement of the two most significant forms of proviral DNA, total and non-integrated, are currently lacking, despite the widespread of molecular biology techniques. In this study, total and 2-LTR HIV-1 DNA proviral load, in addition to RNA viral load, CD4 cell count and serological parameters, were determined by quantitative analysis in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) in naïve or subsequently HAART-treated patients with acute HIV-1 infection in order to establish the role of these two DNA proviral forms in the course of HIV infection. The study demonstrated that HAART-treated individuals show a significant decrease in both total and 2-LTR circular HIV-1 DNA proviral load compared with naïve patients: these findings confirm that HIV-1 reservoir decay correlates with therapeutic effectiveness. The persistence of small amounts of 2-LTR HIV-1 DNA form, which is considered to be a molecular determinant of infectivity, in PBMC from some patients demonstrates that a small rate of replication is retained even when HAART is substantially effective: HAART could not eradicate completely the infection because HIV is able to replicate at low levels. Plasma-based viral RNA assays may fail to demonstrate the full extent of viral activity. In conclusion, the availability of a new standardized assay to determine DNA proviral load will be important in assessing the true extent of virological suppression suggesting that its quantification may be an important parameter in monitoring HIV infection.

Studio della patogenesi di HIV-1 nel compartimento osseo: effetti della terapia antiretrovirale convenzionale e nuovi approcci all'eradicazione

L’obiettivo della tesi è studiare il virus HIV-1 in relazione alle alterazioni sistemiche, riscontrate nel paziente HIV-infetto, in particolare alterazioni a carico del sistema scheletrico, indotte dal virus o dall’azione dei farmaci utilizzati nella terapia antiretrovirale (HAART). L’incidenza dell’osteoporosi nei pazienti HIV-positivi è drammaticamente elevata rispetto alla popolazione sana. Studi clinici hanno evidenziato come alcuni farmaci, ad esempio inibitori della proteasi virale, portino alla compromissione dell’omeostasi ossea, con aumento del rischio fratturativo. Il nostro studio prevede un follow-up di 12 mesi dall’inizio della HAART in una coorte di pazienti naïve, monitorando diversi markers ossei. I risultati ottenuti mostrano un incremento dei markers metabolici del turnover osseo, confermando l’impatto della HAART sull’omeostasi ossea. Successivamente abbiamo focalizzato la nostra attenzione sugli osteoblasti, il citotipo che regola la sintesi di nuova matrice ossea. Gli esperimenti condotti sulla linea HOBIT mettono in evidenza come il trattamento, in particolare con inibitori della proteasi, porti ad apoptosi nel caso in cui vi sia una concentrazione di farmaco maggiore di quella fisiologica. Tuttavia, anche concentrazioni fisiologiche di farmaci possono regolare negativamente alcuni marker ossei, come ALP e osteocalcina. Infine esiste la problematica dell’eradicazione di HIV-1 dai reservoirs virali. La HAART riesce a controllare i livelli viremici, ciononostante diversi studi propongono alcuni citotipi come potenziali reservoir di infezione, vanificando l’effetto della terapia. Abbiamo, perciò, sviluppato un nuovo approccio molecolare all’eradicazione: sfruttare l’enzima virale integrasi per riconoscere in modo selettivo le sequenze LTR virali per colpire il virus integrato. Fondendo integrasi e l’endonucleasi FokI, abbiamo generato diversi cloni. Questi sono stati transfettati stabilmente in cellule Jurkat, suscettibili all’infezione. Una volta infettate, abbiamo ottenuto una significativa riduzione dei markers di infezione. Successivamente la transfezione nella linea linfoblastica 8E5/LAV, che porta integrata nel genoma una copia di HIV, ha dato risultati molto incoraggianti, come la forte riduzione del DNA virale integrato.

Costruzione di chimere molecolari dell'enzima Integrasi di HIV con attività idrolizzante delle LTR virali.

La Sindrome da Immunodeficienza Acquisita (AIDS o SIDA) causata da HIV-1 (Virus dell'Immunodeficienza umana) è caratterizzata dalla graduale compromissione del sistema immunitario del soggetto colpito. Le attuali terapie farmacologiche, purtroppo, non riescono a eliminare l'infezione a causa della comparsa di continui ceppi resistenti ai farmaci, e inoltre questi trattamenti non sono in grado di eliminare i reservoir virali latenti e permettere l'eradicazione definitiva del virus dall’organismo. E' in questo ambito che si colloca il progetto a cui ho lavorato principalmente in questi anni, cioè la creazione di una strategia per eradicare il provirus di HIV integrato nel genoma della cellula ospite. L'Integrasi di HIV-1 è un enzima che media l'integrazione del cDNA virale nel genoma della cellula ospite. La nostra idea è stata, quindi, quella di associare all'attività di legame dell'IN stessa, un'attività catalitica. A tal fine abbiamo creato una proteina chimerica costituita da un dominio DNA-binding, dato dall'Integrasi, e da un dominio con attività nucleasica fornito dall'enzima FokI. La chimera ottenuta è stata sottoposta a mutagenesi random mediante UV, ed è stata oggetto di selezione in vivo, al fine di ottenere una chimera capace di riconoscere, specificamente le LTR di HIV-1, e idrolizzare i siti di inserzione. Questo lavoro porterà a definire pertanto se l'IN di HIV può essere riprogrammata a catalizzare una nuova funzione mediante la sostituzione dell'attività del proprio dominio catalitico con quello di FokI.

Synthese und Testung potentieller Elongin-C-Antagonisten als neuartige HIV-Therapeutika

Weltweit sind über 34 Millionen Menschen mit dem HI-Virus infiziert. Da die Behandlung mit der HAART-Therapie aufgrund der hohen Mutationsrate des Virus oft fehlschlägt, ist die stetige Forschung an neuen, verbesserten Wirkstoffen zwingend nötig. Mit einem neuartigen Therapieansatz, der die Aufrechterhaltung des menschlichen antiretroviralen Schutz-mechanismus durch Hemmung des APOBEC3G-Abbaus zum Ziel hat, existiert eine neue Möglichkeit zur Bekämpfung der Infektion. Im Gegensatz zu den HAART-Virustatika soll hier das menschliche Immunsystem aufrechterhalten werden, sodass es die Abwehr des Virus selbst übernehmen kann. Der durch das Virus induzierte Abbau von APOBEC3G ist gekoppelt an die Bildung eines Komplexes aus mehreren Proteinen, darunter das virale Protein vif (viral infectivity factor) und das humane Protein Elongin–C. Wird eine der Interaktionen dieser Komplexbildung gehemmt, so kann APOBEC3G nicht mehr abgebaut werden und der humane Schutzmechanismus bleibt aufrechterhalten.rnDie vorliegende Arbeit widmete sich in diesem Zusammenhang der Suche nach Inhibitoren der vif-Elongin–C-Interaktion. Nach Dockingstudien wurden potentielle Kandidaten synthetisiert und anschließend zunächst mit Hilfe der Mikrokalorimetrie (ITC) und der Oberflächenplasmonenresonanzspektroskopie (SPR) auf ihre Affinität zu rekombinant exprimiertem Elongin–C getestet. Zusätzlich wurde ein auf der Mikroskalierten Thermo-phorese (MST) basierender Bindungsassay etabliert, und die Substanzen auch mit dieser Methode getestet. Während die Bindung in diesen Assays nicht eindeutig nachgewiesen werden konnte, zeigte sich eine Substanz in In-vitro-Tests auf Hemmung der APOBEC3G- und vif-abhängigen Virusreplikation als sehr vielversprechend. Auch wenn der genaue molekulare Wirkort in weiteren Tests erst noch ermittelt werden muss, stellt diese Molekülstruktur aufgrund der bisherigen Testergebnisse bereits eine vielversprechende Basis für weitere Derivatisierungen dar.rn

Suicide in HIV-Infected Individuals and the General Population in Switzerland, 1988-2008

Objective High rates of suicide have been described in HIV-infected patients, but it is unclear to what extent the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has affected suicide rates. The authors examined time trends and predictors of suicide in the pre-HAART (1988—1995) and HAART (1996—2008) eras in HIV-infected patients and the general population in Switzerland. Method The authors analyzed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss general population. The authors calculated standardized mortality ratios comparing HIV-infected patients with the general population and used Poisson regression to identify risk factors for suicide. Results From 1988 to 2008, 15,275 patients were followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study for a median duration of 4.7 years. Of these, 150 died by suicide (rate 158.4 per 100,000 person-years). In men, standardized mortality ratios declined from 13.7 (95% CI=11.0—17.0) in the pre-HAART era to 3.5 (95% CI=2.5—4.8) in the late HAART era. In women, ratios declined from 11.6 (95% CI=6.4—20.9) to 5.7 (95% CI=3.2—10.3). In both periods, suicide rates tended to be higher in older patients, in men, in injection drug users, and in patients with advanced clinical stage of HIV illness. An increase in CD4 cell counts was associated with a reduced risk of suicide. Conclusions Suicide rates decreased significantly with the introduction of HAART, but they remain above the rate observed in the general population, and risk factors for suicide remain similar. HIV-infected patients remain an important target group for suicide prevention.

Mortality associated with discordant responses to antiretroviral therapy in resource-constrained settings

Objectives: We assessed mortality associated with immunologic and virologic patterns of response at 6 months of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-infected individuals from resource-limited countries in Africa and South America. Methods: Patients who initiated HAART between 1996 and 2007, aged 16 years or older, and had at least 1 measurement (HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load or CD4 cell count) at 6 months of therapy (3-9 month window) were included. Therapy response was categorized as complete, discordant (virologic only or immunologic only), and absent. Associations between 6-month response to therapy and all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Robust standard errors were calculated to account for intrasite correlation. Results: A total of 7160 patients, corresponding to 15,107 person-years, were analyzed. In multivariable analysis adjusted for age at HAART initiation, baseline clinical stage and CD4 cell count, year of HAART initiation, clinic, occurrence of an AIDS-defining condition within the first 6 months of treatment, and discordant and absent responses were associated with increased risk of death. Conclusions: Similar to reports from high-income countries, discordant immunologic and virologic responses were associated with intermediate risk of death compared with complete and no response in this large cohort of HIV-1 patients from resource-limited countries. Our results support a recommendation for wider availability of plasma viral load testing to monitor antiretroviral therapy in these settings.

High specificity of line-immunoassay based algorithms for recent HIV-1 infection independent of viral subtype and stage of disease

Background Serologic testing algorithms for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) provide important information for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody reaction in a confirmatory line immunoassay (INNO-LIATM HIV I/II Score, Innogenetics) provides information on the duration of infection. Here, we sought to further investigate the diagnostic specificity of various Inno-Lia algorithms and to identify factors affecting it. Methods Plasma samples of 714 selected patients of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study infected for longer than 12 months and representing all viral clades and stages of chronic HIV-1 infection were tested blindly by Inno-Lia and classified as either incident (up to 12 m) or older infection by 24 different algorithms. Of the total, 524 patients received HAART, 308 had HIV-1 RNA below 50 copies/mL, and 620 were infected by a HIV-1 non-B clade. Using logistic regression analysis we evaluated factors that might affect the specificity of these algorithms. Results HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL was associated with significantly lower reactivity to all five HIV-1 antigens of the Inno-Lia and impaired specificity of most algorithms. Among 412 patients either untreated or with HIV-1 RNA ≥50 copies/mL despite HAART, the median specificity of the algorithms was 96.5% (range 92.0-100%). The only factor that significantly promoted false-incident results in this group was age, with false-incident results increasing by a few percent per additional year. HIV-1 clade, HIV-1 RNA, CD4 percentage, sex, disease stage, and testing modalities exhibited no significance. Results were similar among 190 untreated patients. Conclusions The specificity of most Inno-Lia algorithms was high and not affected by HIV-1 variability, advanced disease and other factors promoting false-recent results in other STARHS. Specificity should be good in any group of untreated HIV-1 patients.

Adjunctive corticosteroids for Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia in patients with HIV-infection

BACKGROUND: Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (PCP) remains the most common opportunistic infection in patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Among patients with HIV infection and PCP the mortality rate is 10 to 20% during the initial infection and increases substantially with the need for mechanical ventilation. It was suggested that in these patients corticosteroids adjunctive to standard treatment for PCP could prevent the need for mechanical ventilation and decrease mortality. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of adjunctive corticosteroids on overall mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation in HIV-infected patients with PCP and substantial hypoxemia (arterial oxygen partial pressure <70 mmHg or alveolar-arterial gradient >35 mmHg on room air). SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched Medline (January 1980-December 2004), EMBASE (January 1985-December 2004) and The Cochrane Library (Issue 4, 2004) without language restrictions to identify randomised controlled trials that compared adjunctive corticosteroids to control in HIV-infected patients with PCP. We further reviewed the reference lists from previously published overviews, we searched UptoDate version 2005 and Clinical Evidence Concise (Issue 12, 2004), contacted experts of the field, and searched reference lists of identified publications for citations of additional relevant articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Trials were considered eligible for this review if they compared corticosteroids to placebo or usual care in HIV-infected patients with PCP in addition to baseline treatment with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, pentamidine or dapsone-trimethoprim, used random allocation, and reported mortality data. We excluded trials in patients with no or mild hypoxemia (arterial oxygen partial pressure >70 mmHg or an alveolar-arterial gradient <35 mmHg on room air) and trials with a follow-up of less than 30 days. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two teams of reviewers independently evaluated the methodology and extracted data from each primary study. We pooled treatment effects across studies and calculated a weighted average risk ratio of overall mortality in the treatment and control groups by using a random effects model. MAIN RESULTS: Six studies were included in the review and meta-analysis. Risk ratios for overall mortality for adjunctive corticosteroids were 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32-0.98) at 1 month and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.50-0.94) at 3-4 months of follow-up. To prevent 1 death, numbers needed to treat are 9 patients in a setting without highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) available, and 23 patients with HAART available. Only the 3 largest trials provided data on the need for mechanical ventilation with a risk ratio of 0.38 (95% CI, 0.20-0.73) in favour of adjunctive corticosteroids. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The number and size of trials investigating adjunctive corticosteroids for HIV-infected patients with PCP is small, but evidence from this review suggests a beneficial effect for patients with substantial hypoxemia.

High-dose therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation for children with HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma

In contrast to adults, autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) as part of the salvage strategy after high-dose chemo/radiotherapy in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) related Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is not yet established for children. We report on a 13-year patient with congenital HIV infection and refractory Burkitt lymphoma, who was successfully treated by high-dose therapy (HDT) including rituximab followed by ASCT. After 26 months follow-up the patient remains in complete remission and his HIV parameters have normalized with continued highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). HIV infection may no longer exclude children from ASCT as part of salvage therapy. Pediatr Blood Cancer (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Mortality of HIV-1-infected patients in the first year of antiretroviral therapy: comparison between low-income and high-income countries

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings. METHODS: 18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naive adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses. FINDINGS: Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61). INTERPRETATION: Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

Risks of non-accidental mortality by baseline CD4+ T-cell strata in hepatitis-C-positive and -negative individuals initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: Patients coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV experience higher mortality rates than patients infected with HIV alone. We designed a study to determine whether risks for later mortality are similar for HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals when subjects are stratified on the basis of baseline CD4+ T-cell counts. METHODS: Antiretroviral-naive individuals, who initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) between 1996 and 2002 were included in the study. HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals were stratified separately by baseline CD4+ T-cell counts of 50 cell/microl increments. Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to model the effect of these strata with other variables on survival. RESULTS: CD4+ T-cell strata below 200 cells/microl, but not above, imparted an increased relative hazard (RH) of mortality for both HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals. Among HCV-positive individuals, after adjustment for baseline age, HIV RNA levels, history of injection drug use and adherence to therapy, only CD4+ T-cell strata of <50 cells/microl (RH=4.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.72-7.76) and 50-199 cells/microl (RH=2.49; 95% CI 1.63-3.81) were significantly associated with increased mortality when compared with those initiating therapy at cell counts >500 cells/microl. The same baseline CD4+ T-cell strata were found for HCV-negative individuals. CONCLUSION: In a within-groups analysis, the baseline CD4+ T-cell strata that are associated with increased RHs for mortality are the same for HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals initiating HAART. However, a between-groups analysis reveals a higher absolute mortality risk for HCV-positive individuals.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS: We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION: Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.