The global atmospheric water cycle

Water vapour plays a key role in the Earth's energy balance. Almost 50% of the absorbed solar radiation at the surface is used to cool the surface, through evaporation, and warm the atmosphere, through release of latent heat. Latent heat is the single largest factor in warming the atmosphere and in transporting heat from low to high latitudes. Water vapour is also the dominant greenhouse gas and contributes to a warming of the climate system by some 24°C (Kondratev 1972). However, water vapour is a passive component in the troposphere as it is uniquely determined by temperature and should therefore be seen as a part of the climate feedback system. In this short overview, we will first describe the water on planet Earth and the role of the hydrological cycle: the way water vapour is transported between oceans and continents and the return of water via rivers to the oceans. Generally water vapour is well observed and analysed; however, there are considerable obstacles to observing precipitation, in particular over the oceans. The response of the hydrological cycle to global warming is far reaching. Because different physical processes control the change in water vapour and evaporation/precipitation, this leads to a more extreme distribution of precipitation making, in general, wet areas wetter and dry areas dryer. Another consequence is a transition towards more intense precipitation. It is to be expected that the changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate warming may be more severe that the temperature changes.

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Sponge layer feedbacks in middle-atmosphere models

Middle-atmosphere models commonly employ a sponge layer in the upper portion of their domain. It is shown that the relaxational nature of the sponge allows it to couple to the dynamics at lower levels in an artificial manner. In particular, the long-term zonally symmetric response to an imposed extratropical local force or diabatic heating is shown to induce a drag force in the sponge that modifies the response expected from the “downward control” arguments of Haynes et al. [1991]. In the case of an imposed local force the sponge acts to divert a fraction of the mean meridional mass flux upward, which for realistic parameter values is approximately equal to exp(−Δz/H), where Δz is the distance between the forcing region and the sponge layer and H is the density scale height. This sponge-induced upper cell causes temperature changes that, just below the sponge layer, are of comparable magnitude to those just below the forcing region. In the case of an imposed local diabatic heating, the sponge induces a meridional circulation extending through the entire depth of the atmosphere. This circulation causes temperature changes that, just below the sponge layer, are of opposite sign and comparable in magnitude to those at the heating region. In both cases, the sponge-induced temperature changes are essentially independent of the height of the imposed force or diabatic heating, provided the latter is located outside the sponge, but decrease exponentially as one moves down from the sponge. Thus the effect of the sponge can be made arbitrarily small at a given altitude by placing the sponge sufficiently high; e.g., its effect on temperatures two scale heights below is roughly at the 10% level, provided the imposed force or diabatic heating is located outside the sponge. When, however, an imposed force is applied within the sponge layer (a highly plausible situation for parameterized mesospheric gravity-wave drag), its effect is almost entirely nullified by the sponge-layer feedback and its expected impact on temperatures below largely fails to materialize. Simulations using a middle-atmosphere general circulation model are described, which demonstrate that this sponge-layer feedback can be a significant effect in parameter regimes of physical interest. Zonally symmetric (two dimensional) middle-atmosphere models commonly employ a Rayleigh drag throughout the model domain. It is shown that the long-term zonally symmetric response to an imposed extratropical local force or diabatic heating, in this case, is noticeably modified from that expected from downward control, even for a very weak drag coefficient

An examination of climate sensitivity for idealised climate change experiments in an intermediate general circulation model

Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity have been widely used as concepts to understand climate change. This work performs climate change experiments with an intermediate general circulation model (IGCM) to examine the robustness of the radiative forcing concept for carbon dioxide and solar constant changes. This IGCM has been specifically developed as a computationally fast model, but one that allows an interaction between physical processes and large-scale dynamics; the model allows many long integrations to be performed relatively quickly. It employs a fast and accurate radiative transfer scheme, as well as simple convection and surface schemes, and a slab ocean, to model the effects of climate change mechanisms on the atmospheric temperatures and dynamics with a reasonable degree of complexity. The climatology of the IGCM run at T-21 resolution with 22 levels is compared to European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis data. The response of the model to changes in carbon dioxide and solar output are examined when these changes are applied globally and when constrained geographically (e.g. over land only). The CO2 experiments have a roughly 17% higher climate sensitivity than the solar experiments. It is also found that a forcing at high latitudes causes a 40% higher climate sensitivity than a forcing only applied at low latitudes. It is found that, despite differences in the model feedbacks, climate sensitivity is roughly constant over a range of distributions of CO2 and solar forcings. Hence, in the IGCM at least, the radiative forcing concept is capable of predicting global surface temperature changes to within 30%, for the perturbations described here. It is concluded that radiative forcing remains a useful tool for assessing the natural and anthropogenic impact of climate change mechanisms on surface temperature.

A simulation of the last glacial maximum climate using the NCAR-CCSM

The National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) is used in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21,000 years ago) climate. In the tropics, the simulation shows a moderate cooling of 3 °C over land and 2 °C in the ocean in zonal average. This cooling is about 1 °C cooler than the CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but consistent with recent estimates of both land and sea surface temperature changes. Subtropical waters are cooled by 2–2.5 °C, also in agreement with recent estimates. The simulated oceanic thermohaline circulation at the LGM is not only shallower but also weaker than the modern with a migration of deep-water formation site in the North Atlantic as suggested by the paleoceanographic evidences. The simulated northward flow of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is enhanced. These deep circulation changes are attributable to the increased surface density flux in the Southern Ocean caused by sea-ice expansion at the LGM. Both the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are intensified due to the overall increase of wind stress over the subtropical oceans. The intensified zonal wind stress and southward shift of its maximum in the Southern Ocean effectively enhances the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) by more than 50%. Simulated SSTs are lowered by up to 8 °C in the midlatitudes. Simulated conditions in the North Atlantic are warmer and with less sea-ice than indicated by CLIMAP again, in agreement with more recent estimates. The increased meridional SST gradient at the LGM results in an enhanced Hadley Circulation and increased midlatitude storm track precipitation. The increased baroclinic storm activity also intensifies the meridional atmospheric heat transport. A sensitivity experiment shows that about half of the simulated tropical cooling at the LGM originates from reduced atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.

Tropical palaeoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)simulations and paleodata.

Seventeen simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). These simulations use the boundary conditions for CO2, insolation and ice-sheets; surface temperatures (SSTs) are either (a) prescribed using CLIMAP data set (eight models) or (b) computed by coupling the AGCM with a slab ocean (nine models). The present-day (PD) tropical climate is correctly depicted by all the models, except the coarser resolution models, and the simulated geographical distribution of annual mean temperature is in good agreement with climatology. Tropical cooling at the LGM is less than at middle and high latitudes, but greatly exceeds the PD temperature variability. The LGM simulations with prescribed SSTs underestimate the observed temperature changes except over equatorial Africa where the models produce a temperature decrease consistent with the data. Our results confirm previous analyses showing that CLIMAP (1981) SSTs only produce a weak terrestrial cooling. When SSTs are computed, the models depict a cooling over the Pacific and Indian oceans in contrast with CLIMAP and most models produce cooler temperatures over land. Moreover four of the nine simulations, produce a cooling in good agreement with terrestrial data. Two of these model results over ocean are consistent with new SST reconstructions whereas two models simulate a homogeneous cooling. Finally, the LGM aridity inferred for most of the tropics from the data, is globally reproduced by the models with a strong underestimation for models using computed SSTs.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

Influence of pre-heat treatment and different light-curing units on Vickers hardness of a microhybrid composite resin

The aim of this study was to evaluate the hardness of a dental composite resin submitted to temperature changes before photo-activation with two light-curing unite (LCUs). Five samples (4 mm in diameter and 2 mm in thickness) for each group were made with pre-cure temperatures of 37, 54, and 60A degrees C. The samples were photo-activated with a conventional quartz-tungsten-halogen (QTH) and blue LED LCUs during 40 s. The hardness Vickers test (VHN) was performed on the top and bottom surfaces of the samples. According to the interaction between light-curing unit and different pre-heating temperatures of composite resin, only the light-curing unit provided influences on the mean values of initial Vickers hardness. The light-curing unit based on blue LED showed hardness mean values more homogeneous between the top and bottom surfaces. The hardness mean values were not statistically significant difference for the pre-cure temperature used. According to these results, the pre-heating of the composite resin provide no influence on Vickers hardness mean values, however the blue LED showed a cure more homogeneous than QTH LCU.

Movements and mechanical stresses in gas-filled flat plate solar collectors

Sealed gas filled flat plate solar collectors will have stresses in the material since volume and pressure varies in the gas when the temperature changes. Several geometries were analyzed and it could be seen that it is possible reducing the stresses and improve the safety factor of the weakest point in the construction by using larger area and/or reducing the distance between glass and absorber and/or change width and height relationship so the tubes are getting longer. Further it could be shown that the safety factor won't always get improved with reinforcements. It is so because when an already strong part of the collector gets reinforced it will expose weaker parts for higher stresses. The finite element method was used for finding out the stresses.

Gas-filled, flat plate solar collectors

This work treats the thermal and mechanical performances of gas-filled, flat plate solar collectors in order to achieve a better performance than that of air filled collectors. The gases examined are argon, krypton and xenon which all have lower thermal conductivity than air. The absorber is formed as a tray connected to the glass. The pressure of the gas inside is near to the ambient and since the gas volume will vary as the temperature changes, there are potential risks for fatigue in the material. One heat transfer model and one mechanical model were built. The mechanical model gave stresses and information on the movements. The factors of safety were calculated from the stresses, and the movements were used as input for the heat transfer model where the thermal performance was calculated. It is shown that gas-filled, flat plate solar collectors can be designed to achieve good thermal performance at a competitive cost. The best yield is achieved with a xenon gas filling together with a normal thick absorber, where normal thick means a 0.25 mm copper absorber. However, a great deal of energy is needed to produce the xenon gas, and if this aspect is taken into account, the krypton filling is better. Good thermal performance can also be achieved using less material; a collector with a 0.1 mm thick copper absorber and the third best gas, which is argon, still gives a better operating performance than a common, commercially produced, air filled collector with a 0.25 mm absorber. When manufacturing gas-filled flat plate solar collectors, one way of decreasing the total material costs significantly, is by changing absorber material from copper to aluminium. Best yield per monetary outlay is given by a thin (0.3 mm) alu-minium absorber with an argon filling. A high factor of safety is achieved with thin absorbers, large absorber areas, rectangular constructions with long tubes and short distances between glass and absorber. The latter will also give a thin layer of gas which gives good thermal performance. The only doubtii ful construction is an argon filled collector with a normal thick (> 0.50 mm) aluminium absorber. In general, an assessment of the stresses for the proposed construction together with appropriate tests are recommended before manufacturing, since it is hard to predict the factor of safety; if one part is reinforced, some other parts can experience more stress and the factor of safety actually drops.

Estabilidade aeróbia da ração total e de silagens de capim-marandu tratadas com aditivos químicos e bacterianos

Esta pesquisa foi realizada com o objetivo de determinar o efeito da inclusão de aditivo químico e da inoculação de bactérias homo e heterofermentativas sobre a estabilidade aeróbia de silagens de capim-marandu e da ração total. Foram conduzidos três experimentos para avaliação do benzoato de sódio e de dois inoculantes, um contendo Lactobacillus plantarum + Propionibacterium e o segundo Lactobacillus buchneri. Após 60 dias de fermentação, os silos foram abertos e as silagens e a ração total (RT) contendo silagens de capim-marandu foram colocadas em caixas de isopor e transferidas para câmara climática, a 25 ± 1ºC, para determinação das variações de temperatura na ração total e na silagem, das recuperações de MS e das alterações no pH da silagem. O delineamento experimental foi o inteiramente casualizado, em esquema de parcelas subdivididas. Houve perdas de MS e elevação dos teores de pH quando as silagens foram colocadas em condições de aerobiose. A temperatura das silagens e da RT teve discreto aumento durante os seis dias de aeração. O uso de bactérias ou de benzoato de sódio não influenciou a estabilidade aeróbia das silagens.

Physical-chemical and thermodynamic analyses of ethanol steam reforming for hydrogen production

Steam reforming is the most usual method of hydrogen production due to its high production efficiency and technological maturity the use of ethanol for this purpose is an interesting option because it is a renewable and environmentally friendly fuel. The objective of this article is to present the physical-chemical, thermodynamic, and exergetic analysis of a steam reformer of ethanol, in order to produce 0.7 Nm(3)/h of hydrogen as feedstock of a 1 kW PEMFC the global reaction of ethanol is considered. Superheated ethanol reacts with steam at high temperatures producing hydrogen and carbon dioxide, depending strongly on the thermodynamic conditions of reforming, as well as on the technical features of the reformer system and catalysts. The thermodynamic analysis shows the feasibility of this reaction in temperatures about 206 degrees C. Below this temperature, the reaction trends to the reactants. The advance degree increases with temperature and decreases with pressure. Optimal temperatures range between 600 and 700 degrees C. However, when the temperature attains 700 degrees C, the reaction stability occurs, that is, the hydrogen production attains the limit. For temperatures above 700 degrees C, the heat use is very high, involving high costs of production due to the higher volume of fuel or electricity used. The optimal pressure is 1 atm., e.g., at atmospheric pressure. The exergetic analysis shows that the lower irreversibility is attained for lower pressures. However the temperature changes do not affect significantly the irreversibilities. This analysis shows that the best thermodynamic conditions for steam reforming of ethanol are the same conditions suggested in the physical-chemical analysis.

Assessment of cumulative damage by using ultrasonic C-scan on carbon fiber/epoxy composites under thermal cycling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)