International capital flows and credit market imperfections: A tale of two frictions

The financial crisis of 2007-08 has underscored the importance of adverse selection in financialmarkets. This friction has been mostly neglected by macroeconomic models of financialimperfections, however, which have focused almost exclusively on the effects of limited pledgeability.In this paper, we fill this gap by developing a standard growth model with adverseselection. Our main results are that, by fostering unproductive investment, adverse selection:(i) leads to an increase in the economy s equilibrium interest rate, and; (ii) it generates a negativewedge between the marginal return to investment and the equilibrium interest rate. Underfinancial integration, we show how this translates into excessive capital inflows and endogenouscycles. We also extend our model to the more general case in which adverse selection and limitedpledgeability coexist. We conclude that both frictions complement one another and show thatlimited pledgeability exacerbates the effects of adverse selection.

Job search and asset accumulation under borrowing constraints

In this paper I show how borrowing constraints and job search interact.I fit a dynamic model to data from the National Longitudinal Survey(1979-cohort) and show that borrowing constraints are significant. Agentswith more initial assets and more access to credit attain higher wagesfor several periods after high school graduation. The unemployed maintaintheir consumption by running down their assets, while the employed saveto buffer against future unemployment spells. I also show that, unlikein models with exogenous income streams, unemployment transfers, byallowing agents to attain higher wages do not 'crowd out' but increasesaving.

The great diversification and its undoing

We investigate the hypothesis that macroeconomic fluctuations are primitively theresults of many microeconomic shocks, and show that it has significant explanatorypower for the evolution of macroeconomic volatility. We define ?fundamental? volatilityas the volatility that would arise from an economy made entirely of idiosyncratic microeconomicshocks, occurring primitively at the level of sectors or firms. In its empiricalconstruction, motivated by a simple model, the sales share of different sectors vary overtime (in a way we directly measure), while the volatility of those sectors remains constant.We find that fundamental volatility accounts for the swings in macroeconomicvolatility in the US and the other major world economies in the past half century. Itaccounts for the ?great moderation? and its undoing. Controlling for our measure offundamental volatility, there is no break in output volatility. The initial great moderationis due to a decreasing share of manufacturing between 1975 and 1985. The recentrise of macroeconomic volatility is due to the increase of the size of the financial sector.We provide a model to think quantitatively about the large comovement generated byidiosyncratic shocks. As the origin of aggregate shocks can be traced to identifiablemicroeconomic shocks, we may better understand the origins of aggregate fluctuations.

Screening for foetal malformations: performance of routine ultrasonography in the population of the Swiss Canton of Vaud.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the sensitivity of ultrasonography in screening for foetal malformations in the pregnant women of the Swiss Canton of Vaud. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study over a period of five years. METHOD: We focused our study on 512 major or minor clinically relevant malformations detectable by ultrasonography. We analysed the global sensitivity of the screening and compared the performance of the tertiary centre with that of practitioners working in private practice or regional hospitals. RESULTS: Among the 512 malformations, 181 (35%) involved the renal and urinary tract system, 137 (27%) the heart, 71 (14%) the central nervous system, 50 (10%) the digestive system, 42 (8%) the face and 31 (6%) the limbs. Global sensitivity was 54.5%. The lowest detection rate was observed for cardiac anomalies, with only 23% correct diagnoses. The tertiary centre achieved a 75% detection rate in its outpatient clinic and 83% in referred patients. Outside the referral centre, the diagnostic rate attained 47%. CONCLUSIONS: Routine foetal examination by ultrasonography in a low-risk population can detect foetal structural abnormalities. Apart from the diagnosis of cardiac abnormalities, the results in the Canton of Vaud are satisfactory and justify routine screening for malformations in a low-risk population. A prerequisite is continuing improvement in the skills of ultrasonographers through medical education.

Common genetic variation and the control of HIV-1 in humans.

To extend the understanding of host genetic determinants of HIV-1 control, we performed a genome-wide association study in a cohort of 2,554 infected Caucasian subjects. The study was powered to detect common genetic variants explaining down to 1.3% of the variability in viral load at set point. We provide overwhelming confirmation of three associations previously reported in a genome-wide study and show further independent effects of both common and rare variants in the Major Histocompatibility Complex region (MHC). We also examined the polymorphisms reported in previous candidate gene studies and fail to support a role for any variant outside of the MHC or the chemokine receptor cluster on chromosome 3. In addition, we evaluated functional variants, copy-number polymorphisms, epistatic interactions, and biological pathways. This study thus represents a comprehensive assessment of common human genetic variation in HIV-1 control in Caucasians.

Mirror me : the effect of the voting advice application smartvote on voting preferences and behavior of Swiss voters

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) have become a central component of election campaigns worldwide. Through matching political preferences of voters to parties and candidates, the web application grants voters a look into their political mirror and reveals the most suitable political choices to them in terms of policy congruence. Both the dense and concise information on the electoral offer and the comparative nature of the application make VAAs an unprecedented information source for electoral decision making. In times where electoral choices are found to be highly individualized and driven by political issue positions, an ever increasing number of voters turn to VAAs before casting their ballots. With VAAs in high demand, the question of their effects on voters has become a pressing research topic. In various countries, survey research has been used to proclaim an impact of VAAs on electoral behavior, yet practically all studies fail to provide the scientific evidence that would allow for making such claims. In this thesis, I set out to systematically establish the causal link between VAA use and electoral behavior, using various data sources and appropriate statistical techniques in doing so. The focus lies on the Swiss VAA smartvote, introduced in the forefront of the 2003 Swiss federal elections and meanwhile an integral part of the national election campaign, smartvote has produced over a million voting recommendations in the last Swiss federal elections to an active electorate of two million, potentially guiding a vast amount of voters in their choices on the ballot. In order to determine the effect of the VAA on electoral behavior, I analyze both voting preferences and choice among Swiss voters during two consecutive election periods. First, I introduce statistical techniques to adequately examine VAA effects in observational studies and use them to demonstrate that voters who used smartvote prior to the 2007 Swiss federal elections were significantly more likely to swing vote in the elections than non- users. Second, I analyze preference voting during the same election and show that the smartvote voting recommendation inclines politically knowledgeable voters to modify their ballots and cast candidate specific preference votes. Third, to further tackle the indication that smartvote use affects the preference structure of voters, I employ an experimental research design to demonstrate that voters who use the application tend to strengthen their vote propensities for their most preferred party and adapt their overall party preferences in a way that they consider more than one party as eligible vote options after engaging with the application. Finally, vote choice is examined for the 2011 Swiss federal election, showing once more that the VAA initiated a change of party choice among voters. In sum, this thesis presents empirical evidence for the transformative effect of the Swiss VAA smartvote on the electoral behavior.

Geochemical changes at the Permian-Triassic transition in Southern Alps and adjacent area: a review

Compilation of the recent literature from the Southern Alps and adjacent area confirms the geochemical variations of unusual amplitudes during the Permian-Triassic boundary interval (PTBI). A great attention has been given to the negative δ13C anomaly within the Tesero Member close to the Permian-Triassic boundary. Very detailed geochemical works have been done on the scientific Gartnerkofel core (Gk-1) and on the Slovenian sections. Major minor and rare earth elements (REE) data are reported and show a marked enrichment in alkaline metals and REE of some levels of the boundary interval. But recent studies show that the low Iridium anomalies and the Osmium and Helium isotopes anomalies lack the characteristics of a large extraterrestrial impact.

DAI/ZBP1 recruits RIP1 and RIP3 through RIP homotypic interaction motifs to activate NF-kappaB.

Detection of viral nucleic acids is central to antiviral immunity. Recently, DAI/ZBP1 (DNA-dependent activator of IRFs/Z-DNA binding protein 1) was identified as a cytoplasmic DNA sensor and shown to activate the interferon regulatory factor (IRF) and nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-kappaB) transcription factors, leading to type-I interferon production. DAI-induced IRF activation depends on TANK-binding kinase 1 (TBK1), whereas signalling pathways and molecular components involved in NF-kappaB activation remain elusive. Here, we report the identification of two receptor-interacting protein (RIP) homotypic interaction motifs (RHIMs) in the DAI protein sequence, and show that these domains relay DAI-induced NF-kappaB signals through the recruitment of the RHIM-containing kinases RIP1 and RIP3. We show that knockdown of not only RIP1, but also RIP3 affects DAI-induced NF-kappaB activation. Importantly, RIP recruitment to DAI is inhibited by the RHIM-containing murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) protein M45. These findings delineate the DAI signalling pathway to NF-kappaB and suggest a possible new immune modulation strategy of the MCMV.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

[cat] En aquest treball extenem les reformes lineals introduïdes per Pfähler (1984) al cas d’impostos duals. Estudiem l’efecte relatiu que els retalls lineals duals d’un impost dual tenen sobre la distribució de la desigualtat -es pot fer un estudi simètric per al cas d’augments d’impostos-. Tambe introduïm mesures del grau de progressivitat d’impostos duals i mostrem que estan connectades amb el criteri de dominació de Lorenz. Addicionalment, estudiem l’elasticitat de la càrrega fiscal de cadascuna de les reformes proposades. Finalment, gràcies a un model de microsimulació i una gran base de dades que conté informació sobre l’IRPF espanyol de l’any 2004, 1) comparem l’efecte que diferents reformes tindrien sobre l’impost dual espanyol i 2) estudiem quina redistribució de la riquesa va suposar la reforma dual de l’IRPF (Llei ’35/2006’) respecte l’anterior impost.

Genesis and classification of Oxisols in a highland toposequence of the upper Jequitinhonha Valley (MG)

The Brazilian System of Soil Classification (SiBCS) is a taxonomic system, open and in permanent construction, as new knowledge on Brazilian soils is obtained. The objective of this study was to characterize the chemical, physical, morphological, micro-morphological and mineralogical properties of four pedons of Oxisols in a highland toposequence in the upper Jequitinhonha Valley, emphasizing aspects of their genesis, classification and landscape development. The pedons occupy the following slope positions: summit - Red Oxisol (LV), mid slope (upper third) - Yellow-Red Oxisol (LVA), lower slope (middle third)- Yellow Oxisol (LA) and bottom of the valley (lowest third) - "Gray Oxisol" ("LAC"). These pedons were described and sampled for characterization in chemical and physical routine analyses. The total Fe, Al and Mn contents were determined by sulfuric attack and the Fe, Al and Mn oxides in dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate and oxalate extraction. The mineralogy of silicate clays was identified by X ray diffraction and the Fe oxides were detected by differential X ray diffraction. Total Ti, Ga and Zr contents were determined by X ray fluorescence spectrometry. The "LAC" is gray-colored and contains significant fragments of structure units in the form of a dense paste, characteristic of a gleysoil, in the horizons A and BA. All pedons are very clayey, dystrophic and have low contents of available P and a pH of around 5. The soil color was related to the Fe oxide content, which decreased along the slope. The decrease of crystalline and low- crystalline Fe along the slope confirmed the loss of Fe from the "LAC". Total Si increased along the slope and total Al remained constant. The clay fraction in all pedons was dominated by kaolinite and gibbsite. Hematite and goethite were identified in LV, low-intensity hematite and goethite in LVA, goethite in LA. In the "LAC", no hematite peaks and goethite were detected by differential X ray diffraction. The micro-morphology indicated prevalence of granular microstructure and porosity with complex stacking patterns.. The soil properties in the toposequence converged to a single soil class, the Oxisols, derived from the same source material. The landscape evolution and genesis of Oxisols of the highlands in the upper Jequitinhonha Valley are related to the evolution of the drainage system and the activity of excavating fauna.

Temporal distribution and magnitude of the vulnerability period around stroke depend on stroke subtype.

Background: We aimed to analyze the rate and time distribution of pre- and post-morbid cerebrovascular events in a single ischemic stroke population, and whether these depend on the etiology of the index stroke. Methods: In 2,203 consecutive patients admitted to a single stroke center registry (ASTRAL), the ischemic stroke that led to admission was considered the index event. Frequency distribution and cumulative relative distribution graphs of the most recent and first recurrent event (ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, intracranial or subarachnoid hemorrhage) were drawn in weekly and daily intervals for all strokes and for all stroke types. Results: The frequency of events at identical time points before and after the index stroke was mostly reduced in the first week after (vs. before) stroke (1.0 vs. 4.2%, p < 0.001) and the first month (2.7 vs. 7.4%, p < 0.001), and then ebbed over the first year (8.4 vs. 13.1%, p < 0.001). On daily basis, the peak frequency was noticed at day -1 (1.6%) with a reduction to 0.7% on the index day and 0.17% 24 h after. The event rate in patients with atherosclerotic stroke was particularly high around the index event, but 1-year cumulative recurrence rate was similar in all stroke types. Conclusions: We confirm a short window of increased vulnerability in ischemic stroke and show a 4-, 3- and 2-fold reduction in post-stroke events at 1 week, 1 month and 1 year, respectively, compared to identical pre-stroke periods. This break in the 'stroke wave' is particularly striking after atherosclerotic and lacunar strokes.

FOXC2 and NFATc1 control formation and maturation of collecting lymphatic vessels

The mechanisms of blood vessel maturation into distinct parts of the blood vasculature such as arteries, veins, and capillaries have been the subject of intense investigation over recent years. In contrast, our knowledge of lymphatic vessel maturation is still fragmentary. In this study, we provide a molecular and morphological characterization of the major steps in the maturation of the primary lymphatic capillary plexus into collecting lymphatic vessels during development and show that forkhead transcription factor Foxc2 controls this process. We further identify transcription factor NFATc1 as a novel regulator of lymphatic development and describe a previously unsuspected link between NFATc1 and Foxc2 in the regulation of lymphatic maturation. We also provide a genome-wide map of FOXC2-binding sites in lymphatic endothelial cells, identify a novel consensus FOXC2 sequence, and show that NFATc1 physically interacts with FOXC2-binding enhancers. These data provide novel insights into the molecular program of lymphatic vascular specification and suggest that FOXC2 and NFATc1 are potential targets for therapeutic intervention.

Dimensional reduction and gauge group reduction in Bianchi-type cosmology

In this paper we examine in detail the implementation, with its associated difficulties, of the Killing conditions and gauge fixing into the variational principle formulation of Bianchi-type cosmologies. We address problems raised in the literature concerning the Lagrangian and the Hamiltonian formulations: We prove their equivalence, make clear the role of the homogeneity preserving diffeomorphisms in the phase space approach, and show that the number of physical degrees of freedom is the same in the Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations. Residual gauge transformations play an important role in our approach, and we suggest that Poincaré transformations for special relativistic systems can be understood as residual gauge transformations. In the Appendixes, we give the general computation of the equations of motion and the Lagrangian for any Bianchi-type vacuum metric and for spatially homogeneous Maxwell fields in a nondynamical background (with zero currents). We also illustrate our counting of degrees of freedom in an appendix.

Dislocation jamming and Andrade creep

We simulate the glide motion of an assembly of interacting dislocations under the action of an external shear stress and show that the associated plastic creep relaxation follows Andrades law. Our results indicate that Andrade creep in plastically deforming crystals involves the correlated motion of dislocation structures near a dynamic transition separating a flowing from a jammed phase. Simulations in the presence of dislocation multiplication and noise confirm the robustness of this finding and highlight the importance of metastable structure formation for the relaxation process.

Harmonic oscillators driven by colored noise: crossovers, resonances and spectra

We study second-order properties of linear oscillators driven by exponentially correlated noise. We focus our attention on dynamical exponents and crossovers and also on resonance phenomena that appear when the driving noise is dichotomous. We also obtain the power spectrum and show its different behaviors according to the color of the noise.