Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

Report : development of a methodology for assessing variation in maintenance and rehabilitation costs

In the previous research CRC CI 2001-010-C “Investment Decision Framework for Infrastructure Asset Management”, a method for assessing variation in cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation was developed. The variability of pavement strength collected from a 92km national highway was used in the analysis to demonstrate the concept. Further analysis was conducted to identify critical input parameters that significantly affect the prediction of road deterioration. In addition to pavement strength, rut depth, annual traffic loading and initial roughness were found to be critical input parameters for road deterioration. This report presents a method developed to incorporate other critical parameters in the analysis, such as unit costs, which are suspected to contribute to a certain degree to cost estimate variation. Thus, the variability of unit costs will be incorporated in this analysis. Bruce Highway located in the tropical east coast of Queensland has been identified to be the network for the analysis. This report presents a step by step methodology for assessing variation in road maintenance and rehabilitation cost estimates.

Is there a future for non-motorized public transport in Asia?

Non-motorized public transport (NMPT), especially three-wheeler cycle rickshaws, has a long history in East Asia; and has long been a major transport planning issue. Policy measures to restrict or eliminate NMPT have already been implemented in many developing cities with mixed success. However given the economic, social and cultural significance of NMPT, its environmental benefits, and the magnitude of its role in sustaining the mobility needs of citizens, it is timely to reconsider the future role of NMPT. Rather than pursuing policies to eliminate NMPT, a better approach may be to integrate motorized and non-motorized vehicles as complementary rather than competitive forces. With this backdrop and given the international significance of the problem, this paper examines the current role and significance of NMPT using Dhaka as a case study, and sets a research agenda for the future of NMPT in a sustainable transport system.

Promoting the use of cycling as an environmentally and socially sustainable form of transport.

Solar Cities Congress 2008 “Energising Sustainable Communities – Options for Our Future” THEME 3: Climate Change. Impact on Society and Culture. Sub Theme: planning and implementing holistic strategies for sustainable transport Abstract Promoting the use of cycling as an environmentally and socially sustainable form of transport. We need to reduce carbon emissions. We need to reduce fuel consumption. We need to reduce pollution. We need to reduce traffic congestion. As obesity levels and associated health problems in the developed nations continue to increase we need to adopt a healthier lifestyle. Few if any would argue with these statements. In fact many would consider these problems to be amongst the most urgent that our society faces. What if we had a vehicle that uses no fossil fuel to power it, creates no pollution, takes up far less space on the roads and promotes an active, healthy lifestyle. What if this machine would have energy efficiency levels 50 times greater than the car? This is a solution that is here, now and ready to go and many of us already own one. It is the humble bicycle. Although bicycle sales in Australia now outnumber car sales, bicycle use as a form of transport (as opposed to recreation) only constitutes around 3% to 4% of all trips. So, why are bicycles the forgotten form of transport if they promise to deliver the benefits that I have just outlined? This paper examines the underlying reasons for the relatively low use of bicycles as a means of transport. It identifies the areas of greatest potential for encouraging the use of the world’s most efficient form of transport. Tim Williams - May 2007

Sustainable transport and the impact on the built environment : Future trends and directions

We love the automobile and the independence that it gives us. We are more mobile than we have ever been before in recorded history. In Australia 80% of journeys are by private motor vehicle. But it is becoming increasingly obvious that this era has a very limited lifespan. Fuel prices have skyrocketed recently with no end in sight. In spite of massive amounts of road construction, our cities are becoming increasingly congested. We desperately need to address climate change and the automobile is a major contributor. Carbon trading schemes will put even more upward pressure on fuel prices. At some point in the near future, most of us will need to reconsider our automobile usage whether we like it or not. The time to plan for the future is now. But what will happen to our mobility when access to cheap and available petroleum becomes a thing of the past? Will we start driving electric/hydrogen/ethanol vehicles? Or will we flock to public transport? Will our public transport systems cope with a massive increase in demand? Will thousands of people take to alternatives such as bicycles? If so, where do we put them? How do we change our roads to cope? How do we change our buildings to suit? Will we need recharging stations in our car park for example? Some countries are less reliant on the car than others e.g. Holland and Germany. How can the rest of the world learn from them? This paper discusses many of the likely outcomes of the inevitable shift away from society’s reliance on petroleum and examines the expected impact on the built environment. It also looks at ways in which the built environment can be planned to help ease the transition to a fossil free world. 1.

Decision - Support Software Tool Handbook

The road and transport industry in Australia and overseas has come a long way to understanding the impact of road traffic noise on the urban environment. Most road authorities now have guidelines to help assess and manage the impact of road traffic noise on noise-sensitive areas and development. While several economic studies across Australia and overseas have tried to value the impact of noise on property prices, decision-makers investing in road traffic noise management strategies have relatively limited historic data and case studies to go on. The perceived success of a noise management strategy currently relies largely on community expectations at a given time, and is not necessarily based on the analysis of the costs and benefits, or the long-term viability and value to the community of the proposed treatment options. With changing trends in urban design, it is essential that the 'whole-of-life' costs and benefits of noise ameliorative treatment options and strategies be identified and made available for decisionmakers in future investment considerations. For this reason, CRC for Construction Innovation Australia funded a research project, Noise Management in Urban Environments to help decision-makers with future road traffic noise management investment decisions. RMIT University and the Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) have conducted the research work, in collaboration with the Queensland Department of Public Works, ARUP Pty Ltd, and the Queensland University of Technology. The research has formed the basis for the development of a decision-support software tool, and helped collate technical and costing data for known noise amelioration treatment options. We intend that the decision support software tool (DST) should help an investment decision-maker to be better informed of suitable noise ameliorative treatment options on a project-by-project basis and identify likely costs and benefits associated with each of those options. This handbook has been prepared as a procedural guide for conducting a comparative assessment of noise ameliorative options. The handbook outlines the methodology and assumptions adopted in the decision-support framework for the investment decision-maker and user of the DST. The DST has been developed to provide an integrated user-friendly interface between road traffic noise modelling software, the relevant assessment criteria and the options analysis process. A user guide for the DST is incorporated in this handbook.

Modeling study on transport organization methods choice of highway rapid passenger transport in China

Some new types of mathematical model among four key techno - economic indexes of highway rapid passenger through transportation were established based on the principles of transportation economics. According to the research on the feasible solutions to the associated parameters which were then compared to the actual value, found some limitation in the existing transport organization method. In order to conquer that, two new types of transport organization method, namely CD (Collecting and Distributing) Method and Relay Method were brought forward. What’s more, a further research was down to estimate their characteristics, such as feasibilities, operation flows, applicability fields, etc. This analysis proves the two methods can offset the shortage of rapid passenger through transportation. To ensure highway rapid passenger transport develop harmoniously, a three-stage development targets was suggested to fuse different organization methods.

Incorporating an economic model in the health impact assessment approach

The current policy decision making in Australia regarding non-health public investments (for example, transport/housing/social welfare programmes) does not quantify health benefits and costs systematically. To address this knowledge gap, this study proposes an economic model for quantifying health impacts of public policies in terms of dollar value. The intention is to enable policy-makers in conducting economic evaluation of health effects of non-health policies and in implementing policies those reduce health inequalities as well as enhance positive health gains of the target population. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides an appropriate framework for this study since HIA assesses the beneficial and adverse effects of a programme/policy on public health and on health inequalities through the distribution of those effects. However, HIA usually tries to influence the decision making process using its scientific findings, mostly epidemiological and toxicological evidence. In reality, this evidence can not establish causal links between policy and health impacts since it can not explain how an individual or a community reacts to changing circumstances. The proposed economic model addresses this health-policy linkage using a consumer choice approach that can explain changes in group and individual behaviour in a given economic set up. The economic model suggested in this paper links epidemiological findings with economic analysis to estimate the health costs and benefits of public investment policies. That is, estimating dollar impacts when health status of the exposed population group changes by public programmes – for example, transport initiatives to reduce congestion by building new roads/ highways/ tunnels etc. or by imposing congestion taxes. For policy evaluation purposes, the model is incorporated in the HIA framework by establishing association among identified factors, which drive changes in the behaviour of target population group and in turn, in the health outcomes. The economic variables identified to estimate the health inequality and health costs are levels of income, unemployment, education, age groups, disadvantaged population groups, mortality/morbidity etc. However, though the model validation using case studies and/or available database from Australian non-health policy (say, transport) arena is in the future tasks agenda, it is beyond the scope of this current paper.

Fatal motorcycle crashes in north Queensland : characteristics and potential interventions

Aims: The Rural and Remote Road Safety Study (RRRSS) addresses a recognised need for greater research on road trauma in rural and remote Australia, the costs of which are disproportionately high compared with urban areas. The 5-year multi-phase study with whole-of-government support concluded in June 2008. Drawing on RRRSS data, we analysed fatal motorcycle crashes which occurred over 39 months to provide a description of crash characteristics, contributing factors and people involved. The descriptive analysis and discussion may inform development of tailored motorcycle safety interventions. Methods: RRRSS criteria sought vehicle crashes resulting in death or hospitalisation for 24 hours minimum of at least 1 person aged 16 years or over, in the study area defined roughly as the Queensland area north from Bowen in the east and Boulia in the west (excluding Townsville and Cairns urban areas). Fatal motorcycle crashes were selected from the RRRSS dataset. Analysis considered medical data covering injury types and severity, evidence of alcohol, drugs and prior medical conditions, as well as crash descriptions supplied by police to Queensland Transport on contributing circumstances, vehicle types, environmental conditions and people involved. Crash data were plotted in a geographic information system (MapInfo) for spatial analysis. Results: There were 23 deaths from 22 motorcycle crashes on public roads meeting RRRSS criteria. Of these, half were single vehicle crashes and half involved 2 or more vehicles. In contrast to general patterns for driver/rider age distribution in crashes, riders below 25 years of age were represented proportionally within the population. Riders in their thirties comprised 41% of fatalities, with a further 36% accounted for by riders in their fifties. 18 crashes occurred in the Far North Statistical Division (SD), with 2 crashes in both the Northern and North West SDs. Behavioural factors comprised the vast majority of contributing circumstances cited by police, with adverse environmental conditions noted in only 4 cases. Conclusions: Fatal motorcycle crashes were more likely to involve another vehicle and less likely to involve a young rider than non-fatal crashes recorded by the RRRSS. Rider behaviour contributed to the majority of crashes and should be a major focus of research, education and policy development, while other road users’ behaviour and awareness also remains important. With 68% of crashes occurring on major and secondary roads within a 130km radius of Cairns, efforts should focus on this geographic area.

The role of land use and psycho-social factors in high density residents' work travel mode choices : implications for sustainable transport policy

Imperatives to improve the sustainability of cities often hinge upon plans to increase urban residential density to facilitate greater reliance on sustainable forms of transport and minimise car use. However there is ongoing debate about whether high residential density land use in isolation results in sustainable transport outcomes. Findings from surveys with residents of inner-urban high density dwellings in Brisbane, Australia, suggest that solo car travel accounts for the greatest modal share of typical work journeys and attitudes toward dwelling and neighbourhood transport-related features, residential sorting factors and socio-demographics, alongside land use such as public transport availability, are significantly associated with work travel mode choice. We discuss the implications of our findings for transport policy and management including encouraging relatively sustainable intermodal forms of transport for work journeys.

Non-motorized public transport development : present scenario and future approach in developing cities

Over the last few decades, most large cities in the developing world have been experiencing rapid and imbalanced transport sector development resulting in severe congestion and poor levels of service. The most common response at a policy level under this circumstance has been to focus on private and public motorized transport modes, and especially on traffic control measures and mass transit systems. Despite their major role in the overall transport system in many developing cities in Asia & Latin America, relatively little attention is given to non-motorized transport (NMT) modes (walk, bicycle and cycle-rickshaw). In particular, this ideology is applicable to the paid category of non-motorized public transport (NMPT), notably three-wheeler cycle rickshaws that still have an important socio-economic, environmental and trip-making role in many developing cities. Despite, they are often seen as inefficient and backward; an impediment to progress; and inconsistent with modern urban image. Policy measures therefore, to restrict or eliminate non-motorized transport from urban arterials and other feeder networks have been implemented in cities as diverse as Dhaka, Delhi, Karachi, Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila, Surabaya and Beijing . This paper will primarily investigate the key contribution of NMPT in the sustainable transport system and urban fabric of developing cities, with Dhaka as case study. The paper will also highlight in detail the impediments towards NMPT development and provide introductory concept on possible role this mode is expected to play into the future of these cities

Use of Probe Vehicles to Increase Traffic Estimation Accuracy in Brisbane

Traffic congestion is an increasing problem with high costs in financial, social and personal terms. These costs include psychological and physiological stress, aggressivity and fatigue caused by lengthy delays, and increased likelihood of road crashes. Reliable and accurate traffic information is essential for the development of traffic control and management strategies. Traffic information is mostly gathered from in-road vehicle detectors such as induction loops. Traffic Message Chanel (TMC) service is popular service which wirelessly send traffic information to drivers. Traffic probes have been used in many cities to increase traffic information accuracy. A simulation to estimate the number of probe vehicles required to increase the accuracy of traffic information in Brisbane is proposed. A meso level traffic simulator has been developed to facilitate the identification of the optimal number of probe vehicles required to achieve an acceptable level of traffic reporting accuracy. Our approach to determine the optimal number of probe vehicles required to meet quality of service requirements, is to simulate runs with varying numbers of traffic probes. The simulated traffic represents Brisbane’s typical morning traffic. The road maps used in simulation are Brisbane’s TMC maps complete with speed limits and traffic lights. Experimental results show that that the optimal number of probe vehicles required for providing a useful supplement to TMC (induction loop) data lies between 0.5% and 2.5% of vehicles on the road. With less probes than 0.25%, little additional information is provided, while for more probes than 5%, there is only a negligible affect on accuracy for increasingly many probes on the road. Our findings are consistent with on-going research work on traffic probes, and show the effectiveness of using probe vehicles to supplement induction loops for accurate and timely traffic information.

Elliptic curve algorithm integration in the secure shell transport layer

This document describes algorithms based on Elliptic Cryptography (ECC) for use within the Secure Shell (SSH) transport protocol. In particular, it specifies Elliptic Curve Diffie-Hellman (ECDH) key agreement, Elliptic Curve Menezes-Qu-Vanstone (ECMQV) key agreement, and Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) for use in the SSH Transport Layer protocol.

The costs arising from pressure ulcers attributable to malnutrition

Aim To estimate the economic consequences of pressure ulcers attributable to malnutrition. Method Statistical models were developed to predict the number of cases of pressure ulcer, associated bed days lost and the dollar value of these losses in public hospitals in 2002/2003 in Queensland, Australia. The following input parameters were specified and appropriate probability distributions fitted • Number of at risk discharges per annum • Incidence rate for pressure ulcer • Attributable fraction of malnutrition in the development of pressure ulcer • Independent effect of pressure ulcer on length of hospital stay • Opportunity cost of hospital bed day One thousand random re-samples were made and the results expressed as (output) probabilistic distributions. Results The model predicts a mean 16060 (SD 5 671) bed days lost and corresponding mean economic cost of AU$12 968 668 (SD AU$4 924 148) (EUROS 6 925 268 SD 2 629 495; US$ 7 288 391 SD 2 767 371) of pressure ulcer attributable to malnutrition in 2002/2003 in public hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Conclusion The cost of pressure ulcer attributable to malnutrition in bed days and dollar terms are substantial. The model only considers costs of increased length of stay associated with pressure ulcer and not other factors associated with care.