Trends in Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: An Analysis of the CSO Survey in Income and Living Conditions (SILC)

Since 2008, Ireland has experienced the most severe economic and labour market crisis since the foundation of the State. These economic and labour market changes have had a stark impact on the standard of living across the Irish population. The rapid deterioration in the labour market, the rising level of household indebtedness and stringent austerity measures to plug the public finance deficit have had a widespread impact yet there is debate about where the heaviest burden has fallen and where the economic stress has been felt most. The paper analyses data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the period 2004 to 2011. The aim of the paper is to develop and test a measure of economic stress, which will capture some of the aspects of the rapid change in economic fortunes on Irish households that are not picked up by income alone. This includes tapping into features of the recession such as debt problems, unsustainable housing costs, and other difficulties associated with managing on reduced household income in a period of uncertainty. In testing such a measure we examine trends over time from boom to bust in the Irish economy and consider how economic stress is distributed across different socio-economic groups. The paper explores the distribution and level of economic stress across income class groups, social classes and the life-course and tests the thesis of ‘middle class squeeze’.

Income ineqaulity from 1960-2012: a brief time-series history of capital and labour

This commentary examines two principal forms of inequality and their evolution since the 1960s: the division of national income between capital and labour, and the share of total income held by the top 1 per cent of earners. Trends are linked to current discussions of inequality drivers such as financialisation, and a brief time-series analysis of the effects of trade and financial sector growth on top incomes is presented.

Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

Trends and Determinants of Work-Retirement Transitions under Changing Institutional Conditions: Germany, England and Japan compared

Many governments world-wide are promoting longer working life due to the social and economic repercussions of demographic change. However, not all workers are equally able to extend their employment careers. Thus, while national policies raise the overall level of labour market participation, they might create new social and labour market inequalities. This paper explores how institutional differences in the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan affect individual retirement decisions on the aggregate level, and variations in individuals’ degree of choice within and across countries. We investigate which groups of workers are disproportionately at risk of being ‘pushed’ out of employment, and how such inequalities have changed over time. We use comparable national longitudinal survey datasets focusing on the older population in England, Germany and Japan. Results point to cross-national differences in retirement transitions. Retirement transitions in Germany have occurred at an earlier age than in England and Japan. In Japan, the incidence of involuntary retirement is the lowest, reflecting an institutional context prescribing that employers provide employment until pension age, while Germany and England display substantial proportions of involuntary exits triggered by organisational-level redundancies, persistent early retirement plans or individual ill-health.

Trends in Approval Times for Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States and the European Union

Genetically engineered (GE) crops are subject to regulatory oversight to ensure their safety for humans and the environment. Their approval in the European Union (EU) starts with an application in a given Member State followed by a scientific step (risk assessment), and ends with a political decision-making step (risk management); and in the United States (US) it starts with a scientific (field trial) step and ends with a ‘bureaucratic’ decision-making step. We investigated trends for the time taken for these steps and the overall time taken for approving GE crops in the US and the EU (traders in these commodities). Results show that from 1996-2015 the overall time trend for approval in the EU decreased and then flattened off, with an overall mean completion-time of 1,763 days. In the US in 1998 there was a break in the trend of the overall approval time: Initially, from 1988 until 1997 the trend decreased with a mean approval time of 1,321 days; from 1998-2015, the trend almost stagnated with a mean approval time of 2,467 days.

Real time manufacturing systems simulator

A área da simulação computacional teve um rápido crescimento desde o seu apareciment, sendo actualmente uma das ciências de gestão e de investigação operacional mais utilizadas. O seu princípio baseia-se na replicação da operação de processos ou sistemas ao longo de períodos de tempo, tornando-se assim uma metodologia indispensável para a resolução de variados problemas do mundo real, independentemente da sua complexidade. Das inúmeras áreas de aplicação, nos mais diversos campos, a que mais se destaca é a utilização em sistemas de produção, onde o leque de aplicações disponível é muito vasto. A sua aplicação tem vindo a ser utilizada para solucionar problemas em sistemas de produção, uma vez que permite às empresas ajustar e planear de uma maneira rápida, eficaz e ponderada as suas operações e os seus sistemas, permitindo assim uma rápida adaptação das mesmas às constantes mudanças das necessidades da economia global. As aplicações e packages de simulação têm seguindo as tendências tecnológicas pelo que é notório o recurso a tecnologias orientadas a objectos para o desenvolvimento das mesmas. Este estudo baseou-se, numa primeira fase, na recolha de informação de suporte aos conceitos de modelação e simulação, bem como a respectiva aplicação a sistemas de produção em tempo real. Posteriormente centralizou-se no desenvolvimento de um protótipo de uma aplicação de simulação de ambientes de fabrico em tempo real. O desenvolvimento desta ferramenta teve em vista eventuais fins pedagógicos e uma utilização a nível académico, sendo esta capaz de simular um modelo de um sistema de produção, estando também dotada de animação. Sem deixar de parte a possibilidade de integração de outros módulos ou, até mesmo, em outras plataformas, houve ainda a preocupação acrescida de que a sua implementação recorresse a metodologias de desenvolvimento orientadas a objectos.

Parallel Software framework for time-critical many-core systems

The recent technological advancements and market trends are causing an interesting phenomenon towards the convergence of High-Performance Computing (HPC) and Embedded Computing (EC) domains. On one side, new kinds of HPC applications are being required by markets needing huge amounts of information to be processed within a bounded amount of time. On the other side, EC systems are increasingly concerned with providing higher performance in real-time, challenging the performance capabilities of current architectures. The advent of next-generation many-core embedded platforms has the chance of intercepting this converging need for predictable high-performance, allowing HPC and EC applications to be executed on efficient and powerful heterogeneous architectures integrating general-purpose processors with many-core computing fabrics. To this end, it is of paramount importance to develop new techniques for exploiting the massively parallel computation capabilities of such platforms in a predictable way. P-SOCRATES will tackle this important challenge by merging leading research groups from the HPC and EC communities. The time-criticality and parallelisation challenges common to both areas will be addressed by proposing an integrated framework for executing workload-intensive applications with real-time requirements on top of next-generation commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) platforms based on many-core accelerated architectures. The project will investigate new HPC techniques that fulfil real-time requirements. The main sources of indeterminism will be identified, proposing efficient mapping and scheduling algorithms, along with the associated timing and schedulability analysis, to guarantee the real-time and performance requirements of the applications.

Coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality in young adults: recent trends in Europe.

Background: Over the last two decades, mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) declined by about 30% in the European Union (EU). Design: We analyzed trends in CHD (X ICD codes: I20-I25) and CVD (X ICD codes: I60-I69) mortality in young adults (age 35-44 years) in the EU as a whole and in 12 selected European countries, over the period 1980-2007. Methods: Data were derived from the World Health Organization mortality database. With joinpoint regression analysis, we identified significant changes in trends and estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC). Results: CHD mortality rates at ages 35-44 years have decreased in both sexes since the 1980s for most countries, except for Russia (130/100,000 men and 24/100,000 women, in 2005-7). The lowest rates (around 9/100,000 men, 2/100,000 women) were in France, Italy and Sweden. In men, the steepest declines in mortality were in the Czech Republic (AAPC = -6.1%), the Netherlands (-5.2%), Poland (-4.5%), and England and Wales (-4.5%). Patterns were similar in women, though with appreciably lower rates. The AAPC in the EU was -3.3% for men (rate = 16.6/100,000 in 2005-7) and -2.1% for women (rate = 3.5/100,000). For CVD, Russian rates in 2005-7 were 40/100,000 men and 16/100,000 women, 5 to 10-fold higher than in most western European countries. The steepest declines were in the Czech Republic and Italy for men, in Sweden and the Czech Republic for women. The AAPC in the EU was -2.5% in both sexes, with steeper declines after the mid-late 1990s (rates = 6.4/100,000 men and 4.3/100,000 women in 2005-7). Conclusions: CHD and CVD mortality steadily declined in Europe, except in Russia, whose rates were 10 to 15-fold higher than those of France, Italy or Sweden. Hungary and Poland, and also Scotland, where CHD trends were less favourable than in other western European countries, also emerge as priorities for preventive interventions.

Trends in fish prey capture by common terns following zebra mussel invasion : do terns track fish species abundance? /

The Common Tern (Sterna hirundo) is a ground nesting colonial seabird. Terns rely primarily on small prey fishes which they obtain through plunge diving for their survival as well as the survival of their offspring during the breeding season. The zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) is a small bivalve mollusk that invaded North American waters in the late 1980's. Through its suspension feeding, the zebra mussel has the ability to alter the entire aquatic ecosystem, ultimately leading to a reduction in pelagic organisms including small prey fish. The objective of the study was to determine what (if any) indirect effects the invasion of the zebra mussel has had on fish prey captured by terns. The study took place in two separate two-year periods, 1990-91 and 1995-96 on a concrete breakwall off the north shore of Lake Erie near Port Colborne, Ontario. Daily nest checks revealed clutch initiation dates, egg-laying chronology, hatching success and morphological egg characteristics (length and breadth). Behavioural observations included time each sex spent in attendance with its brood, the frequency of feeding chicks and the prey species composition and size fed to chicks as well as to females (courtship feeding). Egg sizes did not differ between study periods, nor did feeding rates to chicks, suggesting that food was not a limiting resource. Terns spent less time with their broods (more time foraging) in the 1995-96 period. However, they also had significantly larger broods and fledged more offspring. The time of each individual foraging trip decreased, suggesting that fish were easier to obtain in 1995 and 1996. Lastly, kleptoparasitism rates decreased, suggesting that the costs of foraging (time, energy) actually decreased as fewer birds adopted this strategy to compensate for what I assumed to be a lack of available food (fish). The only significant difference between the periods of 1990, 1991 and 1995, 1996 was a change in diet. Terns delivered significantly fewer rainbow smelt and more emerald shiner in 1995 and 1996. However, the average size of fish delivered did not change. Thus, there was little impact on prey captured by Common Terns in Lake Erie since the invasion of the zebra mussel.

Inter- State Variations in Productivity trends and Technological Change in Indian industry

The present study entitled ‘Inter-State Variations in Manufacturing Productivity and Technological Changes in India’ covers a period of 38 years from l960 tol998-99. The study is mainly based on ASI data. The study starts with a discussion of the major facilitating factors of industrialization, namely, historical forces, public policy and infrastructure facilities. These are discussed in greater details in the context of our discussion on Perrox’s (1998) ‘growth pole’ and ‘development pole’, Hirschman’s (1958) ‘industrial centers’ and Myrdal’s ‘spread effect’ Most of the existing literature more or less agrees that the process of industrialization has not been unifonn in all Indian states. There has been a decline in inter-state industrial disparities over time. This aspect is dealt at some length in the third chapter. An important element that deserves detailed attention is the intra-regional differences in industrialisation. Regional industrialisation implies the emergence of a few focal points and industrial regions. Calcutta, Bombay and Madras were the initial focal points. Later other centers like Bangalore, Amritsar, Ahemedabad etc. emerged as nodal points in other states. All major states account for focal points. The analysis made in the third chapter shows that industrial activities generally converge to one or two focal points and industrial regions have emerged out of the focal points in almost all states. One of the general features of these complexes and regions is that they approximately accommodate 50 to 75 percent of the total industrial units and workers in the state. Such convergence is seen hands in glow with urbanization. It was further seen that intra-regional industrial disparity comes down in industrial states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

Reintroduction of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Muga and Fluvià basins (north-eastern Spain): viability, development, monitoring and trends of the new population

Aquesta tesi es basa en el programa de reintroducció de la llúdriga eurasiàtica (Lutra lutra) a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià (Catalunya) durant la segona meitat dels 1990s. Els objectius de la tesi foren demostrar la viabilitat de la reintroducció, demostrar l'èxit de la mateixa, estudiar aspectes ecològics i etològics de l'espècie, aprofitant l'oportunitat única de gaudir d'una població "de disseny" i determinar les probabilitats de supervivència de la població a llarg termini. La reintroducció de la llúdriga a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià va reeixir, doncs l'àrea geogràfica ocupada efectivament es va incrementar fins a un 64% d'estacions positives a l'hivern 2001-02. La troballa de tres exemplars adults nascuts a l'àrea de reintroducció és una altra prova que valida l'èxit del programa. La densitat d'exemplars calculada a través dels censos visuals ha resultat baixa (0.04-0.11 llúdrigues/km), però s'aproxima al que hom pot esperar en els primers estadis d'una població reintroduïda, encara poc nombrosa però distribuïda en una gran àrea. La mortalitat post-alliberament va ser del 22% un any després de l'alliberament, similar o inferior a la d'altres programes de reintroducció de llúdrigues reeixits. La mortalitat va ser deguda principalment a atropellaments (56%). El patró d'activitat de les llúdrigues reintroduïdes va esdevenir principalment nocturn i crepuscular, amb una escassa activitat diürna. Les seves àrees vitals van ser del mateix ordre (34,2 km) que les calculades en d'altres estudis realitzats a Europa. La longitud mitjana de riu recorreguda per una llúdriga durant 24 hores va ser de 4,2 km per les femelles i 7,6 km pels mascles. Durant el període de radioseguiment dues femelles van criar i els seus moviments van poder ser estudiats amb deteniment. La resposta de la nova població de llúdrigues a les fluctuacions estacionals en la disponibilitat d'aigua, habitual a les regions mediterrànies, va consistir en la concentració en una àrea menor durant el període de sequera estival, a causa de l'increment de trams secs, inhabitables per la llúdriga per la manca d'aliment, fet que va provocar expansions i contraccions periòdiques en l'àrea de distribució. La persistència a llarg termini de la població reintroduïda va ser estudiada mitjançant una Anàlisi de Viabilitat Poblacional (PVA). El resultat va ser un baix risc d'extinció de la població en els propers 100 anys i la majoria dels escenaris simulats (65%) van assolir el criteri d'un mínim de 90% de probabilitat de supervivència. Del model poblacional construït es dedueix que un punt clau per assegurar la viabilitat de la població reintroduïda és la reducció de la mortalitat accidental. A l'àrea d'estudi, els atropellaments causen més del 50% de la mortalitat i aquesta pot ser reduïda mitjançant la construcció de passos de fauna, el tancament lateral d'alguns trams de carretera perillosos i el control de la velocitat en algunes vies. El projecte de reintroducció ha posat a punt un protocol per a la captura, maneig i alliberament de llúdrigues salvatges, que pot contenir informació útil per a programes similars. També ha suposat una oportunitat única d'estudiar una població dissenyada artificialment i poder comparar diversos mètodes per estimar la distribució i la densitat de poblacions de llúdrigues. Per últim, la reintroducció portada a terme a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià ha aconseguit crear una nova població de llúdrigues, que persisteix en el temps, que es reprodueix regularment i que es dispersa progressivament, fins i tot a noves conques fluvials.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

[ 1] There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially from developing countries. We report the results of the analysis of daily temperature ( maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west African countries over the period 1961 - 2000. Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming over most of the regions analyzed, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over 1961 to 2000, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold ( fifth percentile) days and nights has decreased by - 3.7 and - 6.0 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme hot (95th percentile) days and nights has increased by 8.2 and 8.6 days/decade, respectively. The average duration of warm ( cold) has increased ( decreased) by 2.4 (0.5) days/decade and warm spells. Overall, it appears that the hot tails of the distributions of daily maximum temperature have changed more than the cold tails; for minimum temperatures, hot tails show greater changes in the NW of the region, while cold tails have changed more in the SE and east. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) does not exhibit a consistent trend across the region, with many neighboring stations showing opposite trends. However, the DTR shows consistent increases in a zone across Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique, coinciding with more rapid increases in maximum temperature than minimum temperature extremes. Most precipitation indices do not exhibit consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. Regionally averaged total precipitation has decreased but is not statistically significant. At the same time, there has been a statistically significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity and dry spell duration. While the majority of stations also show increasing trends for these two indices, only a few of these are statistically significant. There are increasing trends in regionally averaged rainfall on extreme precipitation days and in maximum annual 5-day and 1-day rainfall, but only trends for the latter are statistically significant.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.